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UK PoliGAF: General election thread of LibCon Coalitionage
- Thread starter Chinner
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I don't see your problem with AV+. With STV, people won't consider candidates individually just because they're all on the ballot sheet and local. They'll see Labour candidates if they're a Labour supporter and give them 1 and 2 up until how many there are and then move on to the next party and do the same. You get the same result as party lists.The Friendly Monster said:
The Friendly Monster
Member
Not true, look at the rejections of Jacqui Smith, Lembit Opik, and a whole host of scandal mps who would have been safe if the public were voting for a party rather than individual.Sage00 said:
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
killer_clank said:
Labour hate the SNP. Basically because they're their only real rival in Scotland. The Lib Dems won't go near the SNP either because they don't want to be seen endorsing a referendum on independence.
Like I've said a million times, the SNP won't be in any coalition. They're the type of party that when included in a coalition and don't get what they want, they'll throw their toys out of the pram and collapse the government.
Dark Machine
Member
The Friendly Monster said:
Up in Liverpool Labour parachuted people in from Kent because they were safe seats, one woman didn't even know what the 'three graces' were. (The 3 famous waterfront buildings). AV has the same problems ya see. I know STV doesn't solve this, but it's not a problem of the system, just politics, tribalism and tactical votes in this country. I also think STV is the best option for the country.
electroshockwave
Member
I really don't see how this hung parliament is supposed to be an argument against PR. If we had PR there could be a Lib/Lab coalition supported by 52% of the electorate that would be a lot stronger and more stable than any potential rainbow progressive or Lib/Con coalition.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
I really feel sorry for the Liberal Democrats right now. Whatever path they choose will hurt them. Siding with the Tories especially will turn a lot their voters away - especially in Scotland where there's an election next year.
TheHeretic
Banned
industrian said:
They don't have to choose any path. Doing nothing and simply being a minority party is always an option.
If they did this then they would always be the party that let the country down - and when the second election (inevitably) comes around, they would end up with even fewer votes than ever. Plus, this may well be the only way to get their much sought after electoral reform.TheHeretic said:
Proof that Vince Cable is King of Kings:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...ried-to-block-talks-on-Conservative-deal.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...ried-to-block-talks-on-Conservative-deal.html
TheHeretic
Banned
Garjon said:
Yes, yes, but they don't "have" to do anything if they determine either other route hurts their party even more.
Gary Whitta
Member
Still no Sun front page?
I saw it on BBC news and it looked pretty tame - the absence may be them changing it.Gary Whitta said:
Also:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2FUqnIPeOo
Technosteve
Banned
So as an ignorant american, with Brown resigning does that mean David Cameron is now the PM or does he need the additional seats to become PM. Why couldn't he just "Convert" some of the other side to his party?
Technosteve said:
he hasn't resigned, he's announced he is going to resign shortly, which stops the queen having to ask someone immediately to form a government. cameron is the pm if a) he cuts a deal with the lib-dems to share power, or b) the lib-dems fail to cut a deal with labour and as the leader of the largest part he runs a very weak minority government.
Nope, Brown hasn't resigned immediately, he'll be "gone before the Labour party conference in September" and right now he's still the PM.Technosteve said:
Whoever ends up as PM after all of this depends on largely who Clegg agrees to form a coalition with. If it's Labour, Brown will stay PM for a while and be replaced by someone else, probably banana-wielding David Miliband. If it's the Conservatives, Cameron becomes PM. If it's neither, Cameron becomes PM anyway and has hell getting anyone to back bills in parliament.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
TheHeretic said:
Three months from now, when the minority Conservative government collapses everyone will blame the Lib Dems for not joining with them just for the sake of stability. Labour and Conservative will capitalise on this and will run their election campaigns on "vote for us and give us a majority so this shit doesn't happen again" mantra of sorts.
Gary Whitta
Member
I really don't envy Clegg or Cameron their position right now. So many possible choices and decisions, so many ways for things to go horribly wrong. It's like having 100 chalices put in front of you, 99 of which are poisoned while the other leads to political immortality, and being asked to pick one.
Brown has emerged as the smartest of the bunch, having ragequit in a way that ensures his place in history he can now just stand on the sidelines and enjoy the rest of the show.
Brown has emerged as the smartest of the bunch, having ragequit in a way that ensures his place in history he can now just stand on the sidelines and enjoy the rest of the show.
Gary Whitta
Member
Fascinating account of how today's mental events unfolded...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...outflanked-as-he-prepared-to-enter-No-10.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...outflanked-as-he-prepared-to-enter-No-10.html
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I'm sure Clegg can come out looking good if he gets a decent set of concessions from the Tories. Any pragmatic LibDem supporter must realize that as a third party, their party will never form government. Being able to wring some planks of their platform from the government in return for support is more than they could possibly hope for.
Walking away from the table gains them nothing except bitter tears and lost opportunities. The exact same thing happened to the left-wing leftist party in Canada and they've been stuck in the doldrums ever since.
(It's a nice coincidence that the lefty third party here uses Orange as their colour as well. This is so similar to the Canadian situation that it's fun to watch history repeat itself :lol)
Walking away from the table gains them nothing except bitter tears and lost opportunities. The exact same thing happened to the left-wing leftist party in Canada and they've been stuck in the doldrums ever since.
(It's a nice coincidence that the lefty third party here uses Orange as their colour as well. This is so similar to the Canadian situation that it's fun to watch history repeat itself :lol)
TheHeretic
Banned
firehawk12 said:
The difference between the LibDems and the Conservatives is 10% of the popular vote. That then means they will never form Government? Ever?
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
"David Blunkett says the Lib Dems are behaving "like every harlot in history". He says Labour should not be seeking to form the next government."
And that dude right there knows a lot about harlots.
And that dude right there knows a lot about harlots.
brain_stew
Member
Well I never posted yesterday but what a fantastic day of politics. Too much shock and awe and lol worthy moments to comprehend. Its the most exciting show on TV atm.
Edit: And now I read this morning that Vince Cable may have been the architect behind all this!? :lol Delicious.
Edit: And now I read this morning that Vince Cable may have been the architect behind all this!? :lol Delicious.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Salazar said:
Pretty much.
TheHeretic
Banned
So just to clarify Labour + LibDem + Sinn Fein (my laymen guess as to a reasonable party that would sign up) would form a majority coalition, yes?
TheHeretic
Banned
painey said:
So how do Labour and LibDem form a coalition with a majority?
brain_stew
Member
TheHeretic said:
They don't. They just hope the smaller parties abstain from the big votes (which they will because they can't afford another election anyway) or agree to join the alliance as well. PR would be a huge win for the smaller parties and none of them (apart from possibly the SNP) would have the balls to topple the government. Its a dangerous game but it could work, but knowing that Alex Salmond could topple the government at the drop of a hat (which is an entirely possible scenario) doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.
TheHeretic
Banned
brain_stew said:
Yeah but which smaller parties would join the alliance?
firehawk12
Subete no aware
TheHeretic said:
In a FPTP system? No way. It doesn't matter how many votes they don't add up to victories in individual ridings.
In Canada, the third party gets about 20% of the popular vote but only 10-5% of the seats in the house. If those votes are spread out across the country and the third party always comes in second or third, all those votes might as well be spoiled ballots.
I have to imagine there's just too much tradition to change votes enough for a third party to ever win. Either people vote for ethnic parties (the Bloc in Canada, the Irish, Scottish and Welsh parties in the UK), they vote their party lines as defined by their parents or maybe they vote for the third party as a form of protest. The former voters are almost always going to outnumber the latter in individual ridings.
Jexhius said:
Or, like in Canada, you get stuck in a cycle of perpetual minority Conservative governments since the votes are split between the center left party and the left party.
Subliminal
Member
TheHeretic said:
Lab
LD
Green
SNP
Plaid Cymru
SDLP
Alliance
I thought Hague did a decent job of explaining the perils of a Lib dem choice of Labour - basically having two unelected Labour prime ministers in a row will be just too much of a bitter pill for the country to swallow. I certainly wouldn't want it to be Millband either, seems like another career politician to me like Blair.
brain_stew
Member
TheHeretic said:
Well Sinn Fein don't talk their seats so you can take them out of the equation (that's 3 seats). The SDLP are under the Labour whip, so that's another 3 seat by default and the single Alliance MP would do whatever the Lib Dems did. Those are all the obvious ones, the Greens aren't going to rock the boat (and they're policies are very in line with Labour's anyway) and as many have said in the past "you can always buy the vote of an Ulsterman" so roping along some of the Unionists shouldn't be too difficult if it proves necessary. Manage all that and you might be able to get along without Plaid and the SNP holding the balance of power (though I'd have to double check the arithmetic, this shit is super tight).
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Raydeen said:
If Cameron is smart and he smells a Labour-LibDem coalition coming, that's the line he should use.
brain_stew
Member
Raydeen said:
Protip: The last Tory prmie minister ran office as an "unelected PM" for several years as well. Its a complete stupid BS point that means nothing, and only catches steam when the media make a big deal out of it. David Cameron's position is hardly rock solid atm either. We've never elected a PM and never will, the Queen is our head of state and will continue to be so.
Also, career politician? If Milliband is a career politician then what in the fuck does that make David Cameron?
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Subliminal said:
Playing Jenga with the UK Government isn't recommended.
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