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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
What I think would actually happen is we would hopefully become more social democratic and England would become more similar to the us with a likely EU exit.CHEEZMO;65467746 said:It should be split up into a loose collection of Anarcho-Communist districts
It's alot of ifs and butts right now so who really knows I guess.
Delusibeta
Banned
Until the North Sea oil runs out and Scotland goes bankrupt.
CyclopsRock
Member
Scottish independence = Tory majority government for the next 20 or 30 years.
No it doesn't. In fact I think it's the case that the vast majority of Labour governments would have still been returned without Scottish MPs being accounted for.
CyclopsRock
Member
Only twice would Scotland have changed the result from Labour -> something else (though 2010 would have given the Tories a majority) but I wasn't really making an historic comment, just a prediction. For much of the post-war era, the Tories actually gained a healthy number of seats from Scotland. It's really only been since the fall of Thatcher that this hasn't been the case - they won 1 in 2010 to Labour's 41. Voting patterns have never been as divergent between England and Scotland as they are now, so looking into the past only tells us so much. Add to that the fact that, as soon as the Tories get any whiff of a majority, a boundary review will occur, and I think it'll take some Blair-like spell of popularity for Labour to command a majority. Perhaps I was a bit premature with "Tory majority", but certainly, I think - especially if the Tories win in 2015 - the chances of a Labour majority, even a small, fragile one, in a post-Independence UK would be very small.
By the way, how's married life treating you?
Ok, it's the sun but I couldn't find another (better) source:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepag...-islamic-emergency-defence.html#ixzz2XGou4aHL
IED... anjem gonna anjem
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepag...-islamic-emergency-defence.html#ixzz2XGou4aHL
IED... anjem gonna anjem
Nothing really. Being at 0 % change isn't that different from a negative 0.1% change. It's just a confidence booster for policymakers. I hate how it's treated in the media honestly for headlines.
Jezbollah
Member
It is a confidence boost for policymakers, but as some have said here, the ONS' reputation is not great. And all the press and politicians harping on about the recession to the general public doesnt put the high street consumers confidence up.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
This.
Otherwise there was a bad set of data released. The ONS giveth with one hand and taketh with the other.
Very bad business investment figures, the current account is still heavily negative and the YoY GDP was inexplicably revised down (which makes no sense, expect it to be revised up in a few months).
As for the spending round, HS2 is going to cost £8bn more than expected, already a cost over run and it hasn't even started. D:
The MoD civvies should all be very worried about their jobs because the whole 2.5% cut falls on the non-military/intelligence side which is equivalent to a 10% cut for the civvies (if he weren't banned, radioheadrule could tell us more). No bad thing IMO, too much waste and not enough focus. Expect more of DfiD's budget to be funnelled through the MoD though, at least while the civvies put up a fight.
Progression pay has finally been canned. Never made sense to give people pay-rises dressed up as promotions just because they turned up to work. The real world doesn't work that way, and I think now we'll see public sector wage growth slow down and the private sector will finally catch up. The final move that needs to be made is pensions, make public sector pensions identical to the new mandatory contributory scheme they introduced for the private sector. If the Civil Service thinks that it's good enough for the private sector then it's also good enough for them.
A few areas the state could look at is asset sales, prisons in prime locations could be sold and the prisoners transferred to newly built ones on the city outskirts. That alone could ease the housing shortages in inner cities and bring in a few billion for the state to reduce the deficit, especially if the state developed the sites internally and sold them individually (like the Olympic Village).
Nicktendo86
Member
Coulped to the fact that the 2008 recession (when later was in) was worse than thought by 1% must give the Tories more ammo to say Labour really fucked up and it is a struggle to fix their mess.
Jezbollah
Member
Absolutely. It's going to be a fascinating PMQ's next Wednesday.
Maybe it's just the campaigners in Glasgow but the Yes movements arguments tend to rely on fiscal figures that there is no evidence to back up and "hey wouldn't it be nice if we left England with all the debt?"
The Better Together folks are more like "hey guys uh...hi..." With no arguments either way.
I'm still definitely on the fence but am leaning slightly more to independence simply because Scotland would naturally be more left leaning.
And also because I want to see Cameron try to handle the PR shitstorm of "YOU ARE THE PM WHO LET THE UK FALL APART"
zomgbbqftw
Banned
You may have noticed that Labour dropped the double dip line a while ago when it started to look like the City was right and it would end up being revised away. Only the die hards like Owen Jones stuck with it and they will just end up looking stupid if they try to repeat it.
I really wish PMQ was more substantial, it has been progressively going downhill with one liners, which albeit funny and entertaining, provide no substance to debate.
Thank god the BBC Parliament channel at least gives us an insight to debates.
Maybe I'm being cynical, but I have no faith in politicians anymore.
HS2 is the largest waste of money I've ever seen. What a load of shit that is. Textbook economic theory does not translate to reality for many cases
Thank god the BBC Parliament channel at least gives us an insight to debates.
Maybe I'm being cynical, but I have no faith in politicians anymore.
HS2 is the largest waste of money I've ever seen. What a load of shit that is. Textbook economic theory does not translate to reality for many cases
Nicktendo86
Member
Oh and fucking lol at the bashing Osbourne has got about the Byron burger. The man is probably a cunt but the thing people find to bash him for are absurd, I fucking love a Byron.
I think bashing him for the pretty slimy "look-I'm-just-like-you-scum" staged photo is fine. The burger? Who cares?
Good! Watching the missus sort out the her name change across banks, government, utilities etc. makes me pretty grateful to be a man, that said.
Yep it's a bit crazy.
CyclopsRock
Member
I'm in Holland ATM so I missed that, but yesterday morning my phone news app updated with the headline 'Osborne responds to spending review burger fury' or something like that. Barmy. He's stimulating the economy!
Blair mastered the art of soundbite politics, clearly its most effective for them so they are gonna keep up doing it unfortunately.
PMQ's should be a debate, not a Oxford vs Cambridge rugby match.
Tory pollsters will give him a pat on the back. Gets rid of the one area of the country where Labour always win. Little England will be happy to see our back aswell unless they start thinking of it as "The Empire finally being destroyed".
The focus should be put off politics, and back to political economy. What a degradation of a once supreme subject.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
I've researched quite a bit of the historical development of political ideas (specifically the emergence of the political-economy) in Britain and I can say with some certainty that it was as full of shills, sycophants, idiots and corruption as it is now. The technology has changed and the mechanisms of politics have changed but I wouldn't say it is much better.
That's pretty interesting, it might be that the highlights of texts of successful/independent thinkers that I've read in history of economics books that has skewed my view.
However, when we start analysing political individuals instead of subjects, poll analysis instead of policy analysis, I start to question the integrity of the subject. Not to say political economy was perfect, from from it of course, but the emphasis of current political issues is not the best either.
And not to say anyone studying PPE/Politics at University is a shill, it's a perfectly interesting and suitable subject.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Volotaire said:
Yeah, only ~20% are shills. Most PPEists are more misplaced enthusiasts; politics is a spectator sport rather than something to participate in. The degree itself is amazing.
CyclopsRock
Member
So far 2013 has been pretty good to the Tories. For the first time since mid 2010, I think the Conservatives could actually snatch a majority in 2015 (even without an independent Scotland). UKIP's poll ratings are slowly lowering down and the Tories are the ones gaining the most - they've been 5% off of Labour for the last two polls I've seen (with the LD's down to 8% - ouch). Labour still have some hurdles to over-come that the Tories don't. If the economy does as many predict - steady albeit unspectacular growth -from late summer 2013 onwards, Labour will be facing an uphill struggle imo.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Big services PMI figure today and huge momentum heading into Q3 as well, new orders rose at the fastest pace in 6 years!
Q2 growth should come in at 0.5%-0.8% which would be a great result. You never know with the ONS though, so I expect 0.3% reported and then revisions to at least 0.5%.
In other news, the EU Parliament have voted through Cameron and Merkel's budget of 960bn from 2014-2020, it is the first significant win Cameron has scored over the EU and it represents a real terms cut in the EU budget and our contributions will only rise by a small amount rather than 20-30% as originally thought (because of automatic rebate losses "negotiated" by Blair).
Q2 growth should come in at 0.5%-0.8% which would be a great result. You never know with the ONS though, so I expect 0.3% reported and then revisions to at least 0.5%.
In other news, the EU Parliament have voted through Cameron and Merkel's budget of 960bn from 2014-2020, it is the first significant win Cameron has scored over the EU and it represents a real terms cut in the EU budget and our contributions will only rise by a small amount rather than 20-30% as originally thought (because of automatic rebate losses "negotiated" by Blair).
Nicktendo86
Member
This is all TERRIBLE news for Labour, if growth is that strong coupled with the EU budget news the Tories have a really big stick to beat Labour with.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
I just saw a pig flying past my window
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Unite stitched up the selection process, a Labour person blew the whistle, got reprimanded by Ed for rocking the boat, the rest of the party kicked up a stink saying he is only interested in helping the unions and now the selection process has started again. The problem is that Unite are up to their old tricks again and will probably get their candidate selected.
Also there was an internal memo within unite that said "Ed is too weak to lead the Labour party and certainly too weak to lead the country". Basically they think they can slap him about as much as they want and he won't fight back. Which certainly seems the case so far, given that he wanted to hold onto Watson and not rock the union boat.
CyclopsRock
Member
Watson's resignation letter is the most self-serving one I've ever read, and he actually did pretty significant damage in it. He should have kept it to a few lines thanking Ed for his support. But he couldn't...
Nicktendo86
Member
The thing that gets me the most in the affair is that Ed said oh we decided now was the time for Tom to go when in fact he tried to get him to stay! He looks so weak now, even weaker than before. Would be a minor miracle if makes it to the election let alone win it.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
He will make it to the election. There is no candidate to take over from EdM, the union favourite would be Balls but Labour wouldn't risk it. He is utterly toxic with the public and has worse ratings than Osborne who is enacting the worst cuts ever on the public finances and smirking while doing it. Balls is unelectable and the only one with wide enough union backing to make it. Maybe Mrs. Balls would make it but Yvette has basically been sidelined by EdM.
Other than that who is left, Twiggy? Reeves? It's too early for Creasy. Labour are absolutely bereft of talent at the top and it shows. EdM has chased away anyone with talent to ensure he is the big fish in a small pond.
Honestly, I can now see a way back for the government parties where there wasn't one before. If the economy continues to improve and jobs get created the path back is relatively easy and I could see another hung parly with the Tories just shy of a majority (maybe 5-7 seats) and push through the new boundaries as a minority by paying off the DUP and call another election based on those and win.
Another factor to take into account is that Labour are basically bankrupt, membership has begun to decline again and they have lashed their mast to Owen Jones and his ilk to try and win over young people, but it won't work. I honestly believe that the 24-35 crowd are more likely to vote Tory right now because of the £10k allowance, hitting back on benefits for rich people, the new housing assistance loans and hitting back on immigration which helps job prospects for our age group. I think Labour are out of step on too many issues to be electable right now and their polling position is very soft. I could see it collapse to around 30% while 6-8% could easily return from UKIP to the Tories once the message starts to get out there, vote purple get Len.
Other than that who is left, Twiggy? Reeves? It's too early for Creasy. Labour are absolutely bereft of talent at the top and it shows. EdM has chased away anyone with talent to ensure he is the big fish in a small pond.
Honestly, I can now see a way back for the government parties where there wasn't one before. If the economy continues to improve and jobs get created the path back is relatively easy and I could see another hung parly with the Tories just shy of a majority (maybe 5-7 seats) and push through the new boundaries as a minority by paying off the DUP and call another election based on those and win.
Another factor to take into account is that Labour are basically bankrupt, membership has begun to decline again and they have lashed their mast to Owen Jones and his ilk to try and win over young people, but it won't work. I honestly believe that the 24-35 crowd are more likely to vote Tory right now because of the £10k allowance, hitting back on benefits for rich people, the new housing assistance loans and hitting back on immigration which helps job prospects for our age group. I think Labour are out of step on too many issues to be electable right now and their polling position is very soft. I could see it collapse to around 30% while 6-8% could easily return from UKIP to the Tories once the message starts to get out there, vote purple get Len.
Nicktendo86
Member
I thought a Tory majority at the next election was impossible, and I still think it is very unlikely, but if your predictions of 0.8 growth come to fruition and keeps up like that I could see them pulling it out of the hat. A Tory minority government seems the most likely outcome though as you say.
I've read about Labour being broke before, they really are in trouble aren't they. Oh I go past the Unite HQ on my way to the office from Lime Street when I have to go to our Liverpool office, is the most depressing, dreary building I have ever seen. That doesn't have any relevance to this discussion, just saying lol.
I've read about Labour being broke before, they really are in trouble aren't they. Oh I go past the Unite HQ on my way to the office from Lime Street when I have to go to our Liverpool office, is the most depressing, dreary building I have ever seen. That doesn't have any relevance to this discussion, just saying lol.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Going by the numbers it isn't possible, at least IMO, but a minority just short of power would be able to pay off the DUP and with Sinn Fein not taking up their usual 5 seats it brings some kind of government into power that can push through key electoral reforms like equalisation of constituency sizes and individual voter registration, repeal the fixed term Parliaments bill (which now just requires a regular majority vote) and then go to the electorate for a new election while Labour are in disarray and bankrupt from the previous one (that has the added bonus of them having to cap in hand to Unite/Unison which will be very damaging for whoever gets the leadership and it will have a negative effect on the policy heading into any election). Also do it in winter so the likelihood of the 18-24 group of voting is much lower and a large number foreign migrants from warm countries (India, Pak, Bang) will not be in the country to vote Labour in key marginal seats in London and the Midlands.
If I were the Tory strategist that would be my road to a majority. Lynton Crosby is probably planning something similar but it remains to be seen whether Dave is has the cojones to pull it off. I would go with a no and he will stretch his hand out to the Lib Dems again and we will end up with a shitty coalition.
According to Guido Fawkes they only kicked it up to the police because it was already reffered by a Tory MP so they're trying to take the high ground on it.
Nicktendo86
Member
Haha Labour can't get anything right. As ZOMG said earlier though, they are nearly broke and could you imagine Unite pulled their funding of the party? I know this prob won't happen but my god, they would be fucked.
MPs vote for laws promising EU referendum by 304 - 0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...or-laws-promising-EU-referendum-by-304-0.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...or-laws-promising-EU-referendum-by-304-0.html
Delusibeta
Banned
Oh wow, the nays score a duck? Never mind that 300+ yays would be sufficient to get a majority in most cases. But still, I would have thought that someone would have neighed.
CyclopsRock
Member
Nick and Ed told their entire party to fuck off home early for the weekend specifically so that no one would vote No and they could basically delay having to make their intentions known (if they even known themselves). Both parties are in a very tricky place, strategically, about it. Neither want to leave the EU and actually, neither really want a referendum because they fear the result and they don't want to be seen as jumping on a Tory bandwagon a bit too late. On the other hand, they know how popular it'd be and so they know how dangerous appearing to be against even a referendum would be. So they all went home instead. The only ones that stuck around were the dissenting Aye's.
Nicktendo86
Member
Important for the Tories as well to try and win back some ukip voters. I know labour an lib dems abstained but dayum, never seen such a one sided commons vote before!