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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

um, in the UK you elect the party not the leader. Anyone who voted for Labour back then and didn't realise they'd end up with Brown shouldn't have been voting full stop.

Well... I dunno man. I mean....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/oct/01/uk.labourconference2

Tony Blair last night reshaped the landscape of British politics by announcing that he will fight the coming general election and, if re-elected, serve a full third term as prime minister, but stand down before the likely election of 2009.

This wasn't a leaked memo or an insider's tip; He literally said he was going to serve a full third term. If we're getting into the realms where "you shouldn't have been voting full stop" if you don't automatically assume that the Prime Minister is completely lying, I think it's hard to really argue that anything politician's do can be considered a mandate.
 

Jackpot

Banned
Well... I dunno man. I mean....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/oct/01/uk.labourconference2



This wasn't a leaked memo or an insider's tip; He literally said he was going to serve a full third term. If we're getting into the realms where "you shouldn't have been voting full stop" if you don't automatically assume that the Prime Minister is completely lying, I think it's hard to really argue that anything politician's do can be considered a mandate.

The internal backlash that followed and subsequent comments made it clear Brown would take over.

Either way it changes nothing. You vote for the party. If you think that system is wrong, then by all means campaign for a change and choose your own personal vote based on the party leader, but don't pretend Brown somehow gamed the system and tricked the electorate into secretly becoming PM.
 
The internal backlash that followed and subsequent comments made it clear Brown would take over.

Either way it changes nothing. You vote for the party. If you think that system is wrong, then by all means campaign for a change and choose your own personal vote based on the party leader, but don't pretend Brown somehow gamed the system and tricked the electorate into secretly becoming PM.

Well, no, you don't. You vote for your local representative, who could be any party or none. The only way in which we ever vote for the person that leads us is in the ambiguous, hollistic value we place upon that when we choose who we do vote for - for some it might be wholly about the national agenda, for others it might be wholly about the local agenda. Obviously this is the case for all leaders and all partys, but that ambiguous and holistic amount is undermined when the person in charge changes but you don't have a chance to change your vote. The same was true for Major, too, but at least he went on to win in 92.

And whilst it was fairly obvious to anyone interested in politics that Brown would take over, it wasn't ever clear that it'd be between 2005-2010, even if that's where the smart money is. There are only so many guesses and predictions you can make (which, with the benefit of hindsight, are always obvious and clear, because you can see which were blatant tells and which were bits of smokescreen) before the limited mandate that any PM has is worth nothing.

You can arguably make the same case about coalitions in our system, given how infrequently they occur and how adversarial our system is as a result. Ultimately no one got the leadership they wanted this time around (though personally I think it's been better than either an All Tory or All Lib Dem government would have been). None of which means Brown did have a mandate.
 
Labour won the election, so whichever MP they selected as PM had the mandate. That's how that government was formed. No amount of what ifs will change that.

Well, that's not true. That's not what a mandate is, and that's not how governments are formed. I don't think anyone's denying that Labour had the right (in fact, the duty) to do what they did, but that's not what a mandate is. Whoever commands a majority of MP's in the house can form a government - even if a bunch of Labour members had submitted to Tory whips and a new government had been formed in 2007 by Cameron. That doesn't mean that Cameron would have had a mandate. This isn't the European elections, we don't elect parties. We elect individuals, who typically then govern in the house via party, but that's not the same as a mandate. By your definition, they could have chosen Kinnock to be PM in 2007 via the Lords and had a mandate, but that's an obvious misuse of the phrase "mandate".
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
So what did you guys think of the GCHQ's, MI5's and MI6's chiefs hearing today?

Didn't listen to it. Too busy in the shop. But there's one thing in the reports that worries me a bit:

BBC online report said:
GCHQ chief Sir Iain Lobban said activists in the Middle East and "closer to home" had been monitored discussing ways of switching away from communications they "now perceived as vulnerable".

He also suggested the leaks could help paedophiles avoid detection ...

Now that last bit is just smoke and mirrors and misdirection. It isn't any part of his or his department's job to detect paedophiles. It is scaremongering.

Of course, if GCHQ were to monitor a whole lot more of everything they could probably detect a whole lot more things - like maybe MPs' abuse of expenses perhaps - but I guess that wouldn't gave gone down quite so well before a Commons Select Committee.
 
Big surprise, inflation down to 2.2%, house price index fell from record levels, factory gate prices falling in real terms. All of it is great news for UK PLC.

The December statement delayed by one day so Dave can go to China. Weird concession to make to the Chinese, but whatever works I suppose.

More of our proprietary indices have gone positive, employment growth is the highest it has been in the country since we started our measurements. Productivity is also increasing.

There are a lot of doom mongers out there saying that this will be a jobless recovery and only a few people will benefit, but more and more it's looking like a wide recovery.

I have a theory as to why the HPI has gone down a bit, housing starts are up YoY by over 6% and a lot of people are buying off plan using the government's HTB scheme so the supply of housing is actually increasing at a faster rate than demand causing prices to fall. The HTB scheme allows people with low savings (renters) to buy and with so many housing starts all over the country it is having an effect on the market.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Good news all round then. I would like interest rates to stay low for a bit longer and maybe go up in.. two years?

Edit: Also, any word on the agencies upgrading our credit rating again? The downgrade really looks silly now doesn't it.
 
Good news all round then. I would like interest rates to stay low for a bit longer and maybe go up in.. two years?

Edit: Also, any word on the agencies upgrading our credit rating again? The downgrade really looks silly now doesn't it.

We are not a AAA rated nation so I don't expect our rating to go up any time soon. Our debt does not carry a AAA premium so the AA+ rating is fair.

Interest rates will be going up towards the end of 2014, but if the government work to keep inflation down by cutting taxes and controlling public sector wages that could be delayed by up to a year.

Monster employment figures though, 177k jobs created for the quarter. Unemployment down by 50k, youth unemployment down by 9k. It all matches our own index for employment.

Private sector wage growth up to 1.1%, the gap is starting to close. Public sector wages contracted by 0.4%, the crossover is coming soon, for the first time in years the average weekly wage in the private sector will overtake the public sector (how it should be). Private sector employment is up by 114k, outstripping the 34k losses in the public sector. In terms of annual figures, private sector jobs growth is outstripping public sector losses by a factor of 3:1 which shows the "austerity" is more than sustainable. Public sector employment has fallen from 22% of all people in employment to 19%.

Overall employment was 71.8%, which is not too shabby. Compares favourably with most of Europe.

The immigration fear-mongers have taken another hit as well, UK nationals have taken 93% of the jobs created over the last year, with non-UK nationals (EU and non-EU) taking just 7% of jobs created. If this continues until the election UKIP will be in big trouble. I do feel there has been a concerted effort by a lot of employers to "hire British" recently to improve their public image. If that is true then it alone will deter continued immigration.
 
Major still lost in a landslide despite strong economic conditions, and with Cameron now preaching permanent austerity I still don't think the Tories are gonna do well next election. If they win I don't think it'll be with a mandate. But who knows, Miliband is awful so I don't doubt he'll fuck up somewhere between now and 2015.
 

jimbor

Banned
Can't see Labour winning next election. Especially with Miliband in charge.

I'm not so sure. The tories couldn't win against Brown, who seemed to be hated by all and sundry. Milliband doesn't seem to inspire the same hatred (or inspire anything really) as that.
 
It really depends on how well or badly the current economic recovery feeds through into people's pay. If it does then I expect the Tories to squeak through a decent minority of around 315-320 seats in the HoC. If it doesn't then I expect Labour to get a slim majority.

The chances of the economic recovery feeding through is very high, with unemployment heading down very quickly there is going to be much less downwards pressure on wages as the quality of available labour begins to fall once the cream of crop are hired from currently unemployed people.

The other factor is if I am right about companies tending towards British employees then the threat of UKIP to the Tories will be much less than it is today.

Finally, the Tories need to do something about neutralising Labour's "advantage" on helping with the cost of living. Cutting the green crap out of energy bills will instantly take £70-80 off energy bills and it will force British Gas and others to react to EDF's lower 4% average rise since it will be maintained. If British Gas announce that they will raise prices by 4% rather than the 9% currently announced then that will count as a win for the government and a loss for Ed. Other than that they need to look at raising the minimum wage at above inflation for two years. While the jobs market is strong there is room to do this and boost the wages of the working poor.

We will see what the Chancellor says in the December statement, but I expect that they will act on the minimum wage this year after a couple of years of holding steady. if they raise the minimum wage to £6.60/h then the polls will shift towards the Tories and Lib Dems.

I think one thing that needs to be remembered is that the Tories and Lib Dems are in power and have the ability to change things, Labour can only announce things. That is partly why the Tories did so poorly at the last election, in April Labour increased benefits at an above inflationary rate and signed into law keeping all of the old people bonuses as a permanent feature. The other part was agreeing to the debates. Dave signed his own death warrant there, shouldn't have let Clegg in since they were called PM debates and Clegg had no chance of being PM.
 
http://www.globalresearch.ca/speaki...claims-austerity-cuts-to-be-permanent/5358093

call me daves big society ...we're all in it together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ive-in-the-uk-solihull-comes-top-8938636.html

Uswitchworstplace+-+Copy.jpg


the union still shit, and westminster is a ravenous nonce assembly. Can't fault for the scots for wanting out.
 
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/13/everyone-tighten-belts-except-tory-mps

It does piss me off a lot that a bunch of millionaires are telling people that they have to do more with less while Cameron, Boris and Osborne wont feel a thing from austerity.


Also, I think Labour kinda took a risk by electing Ed as leader, and it doesn't look like it's paying off. If they played it safe and elected David Miliband, Labour would probably be in the same place it was in 1995/1996.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
http://www.globalresearch.ca/speaki...claims-austerity-cuts-to-be-permanent/5358093

call me daves big society ...we're all in it together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ive-in-the-uk-solihull-comes-top-8938636.html

Uswitchworstplace+-+Copy.jpg


the union still shit, and westminster is a ravenous nonce assembly. Can't fault for the scots for wanting out.

Genuinely surprised there are so many in Scotland and so few in Wales. From my experience of both countries, Wales has by far the worst end of the stick.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister

"The study looked at 38 local areas"

And that's all you need to know about how crap the study is. 38. Out of - what, something like 600-2000? More? Certainly not fewer.

And of those 38 at least 8 (listed among the "worst") in Scotland.

Load of bollocks it is. Official it certainly isn't.
 

Jezbollah

Member
It really depends on how well or badly the current economic recovery feeds through into people's pay. If it does then I expect the Tories to squeak through a decent minority of around 315-320 seats in the HoC. If it doesn't then I expect Labour to get a slim majority.

The chances of the economic recovery feeding through is very high, with unemployment heading down very quickly there is going to be much less downwards pressure on wages as the quality of available labour begins to fall once the cream of crop are hired from currently unemployed people.

The other factor is if I am right about companies tending towards British employees then the threat of UKIP to the Tories will be much less than it is today.

Finally, the Tories need to do something about neutralising Labour's "advantage" on helping with the cost of living. Cutting the green crap out of energy bills will instantly take £70-80 off energy bills and it will force British Gas and others to react to EDF's lower 4% average rise since it will be maintained. If British Gas announce that they will raise prices by 4% rather than the 9% currently announced then that will count as a win for the government and a loss for Ed. Other than that they need to look at raising the minimum wage at above inflation for two years. While the jobs market is strong there is room to do this and boost the wages of the working poor.

We will see what the Chancellor says in the December statement, but I expect that they will act on the minimum wage this year after a couple of years of holding steady. if they raise the minimum wage to £6.60/h then the polls will shift towards the Tories and Lib Dems.

I think one thing that needs to be remembered is that the Tories and Lib Dems are in power and have the ability to change things, Labour can only announce things. That is partly why the Tories did so poorly at the last election, in April Labour increased benefits at an above inflationary rate and signed into law keeping all of the old people bonuses as a permanent feature. The other part was agreeing to the debates. Dave signed his own death warrant there, shouldn't have let Clegg in since they were called PM debates and Clegg had no chance of being PM.

Interesting stuff.

One thing I noticed from the past couple of days is that some parts of the media is predicting an unprecedented level of voter apathy and that turnout for the next election could be a record low. I think this could hurt Labour more than the others - I feel that those Tories and Lib Dem voters will want to vote for their parties - Clegg and Cameron will be fighting hard for that - Clegg to prove that he's still his party's worthy leader, and Cameron to get those who have edged towards UKIP recently. I think Milliband is going to have a harder time to inspire those potential Labour voters out from their apathy - he's not the most inspiring of speakers (better than Brown though), and if the December budget can put a good bit of money back in the pockets of the poor through the Green tax issues or minimum wage, that's one reason less not to vote for Labour.

I think the December budget is the starting gun for the Election. We're only 18 months away now - clock's ticking.
 
The position on the EU is false. The thinking is that they would have to petition the EU for entry like any other new nation.

It's all well and good to say Scotland will keep the pound, they are absolutely entitled to do so as it is a freely tradeable currency but I highly doubt the BoE would even consider being the lender of last resort to a country to which it has no policy influence. Without that Scottish paper will be worthless. They would need to start their own sovereign bank and peg a new currency to the pound and call them McPounds or something.

The border stuff is silly because they ignore that they would have to petition to join the EU and sign up to Schengen, the former is only possibly with the latter in hand. If Scotland signs up to Schengen while Britain doesn't, it does mean border checks. Britain doesn't have an open border with Schengen nations, only Ireland.

The point about North Sea Oil is just outrageous, plus it also counts Orkney and Shetland who's residents have previously said they would remain part of the UK if Scotland decides to become independent. Unless a new Scottish government is going to force O&S to remain in Scotland (I don't see that as feasible because the UK will not allow it) I don't see the oil and gas figure as being anywhere near true. In addition, the Scottish government has been much less favourable to tax credits and investment breaks for the oil and gas industry than the UK government, currently there are all kinds of decommissioning tax breaks which has allowed for money to be spent on developing new fields and getting more out of dying ones. That cost the government £3bn last year and £1.5bn this year, but next year the new fields and new output will benefit the Treasury by £2bn and then £3bn after that for 3-4 years. Scotland would find it tough to finance that £4.5bn upfront cost without making severe cuts to the state finances or borrowing an untenable amount of money. The money doesn't sound like a lot in isolation, but in relative terms it would be similar to the UK borrowing £45bn to give away in tax breaks for a couple of years with no guarantee of returns. £4.5bn is a small bet for the UK but it would require a Scottish government to leverage the nation's finances and hope it works out.

I'm not saying that Scotland can't be independent, far from it. I just think it is absolutely ridiculous for the SNP to state that everything would stay the same when Scotland would have a massive, massive deficit (>10%, including all oil and gas, 15% including only Scotland's share) and no lender of last resort to back any paper. That means huge budget cuts all over the place. Free university would be the first to go, second would be free prescriptions, then there would be new alcohol taxes, corporation tax would go up (then come back down as companies run for the border), income tax would go up. The scenario painted by the SNP - that independence means no change - is a dishonest one, and sadly anyone who points that out will be labelled a hater or "talking down Scotland".
 
I read an interesting thing able how some think Spain would veto any Scottish petition to join the EU so as not to be seen encouraging secessionist movements, what with their own problems in that respect.
 
Is talk about the European Parliament relevant to the thread?

Apparantly eurosceptic parties like Marine Le Pen's and Geert Wilders' are talking alliances. But Nigel Farage doesn't want to join in because the European parties are more extreme which would damage UKIP's image in the UK. Not joining it splits the Eurosceptic base in the European parliament though.
 
Is talk about the European Parliament relevant to the thread?

Apparantly eurosceptic parties like Marine Le Pen's and Geert Wilders' are talking alliances. But Nigel Farage doesn't want to join in because the European parties are more extreme which would damage UKIP's image in the UK. Not joining it splits the Eurosceptic base in the European parliament though.

Not a surprising turn of events. Even if UKIP don't join the same grouping it doesn't matter. They are more than likely to vote with those parties anyway because both want their respective nations to exit the EU and to stop immigration and freedom of movement.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
edit: oh yeah and I just remembered the BBC's charter gets renewed in 2016, hopefully if Red Ed gets in he can send the BBC some more money their way, they're seriously underfunded.

There's plenty more people more seriously underfunded than the BBC is.
 
The whole institution of the BBC needs a total re-looking at. It's original raison d'etre simply isn't relevant anymore - if it wants to justify its continued receipt if a quasi tax, let alone receive an increase, it needs it's mandate and goals reset, IMO.
 

kmag

Member
The position on the EU is false. The thinking is that they would have to petition the EU for entry like any other new nation.

It's all well and good to say Scotland will keep the pound, they are absolutely entitled to do so as it is a freely tradeable currency but I highly doubt the BoE would even consider being the lender of last resort to a country to which it has no policy influence. Without that Scottish paper will be worthless. They would need to start their own sovereign bank and peg a new currency to the pound and call them McPounds or something.

The border stuff is silly because they ignore that they would have to petition to join the EU and sign up to Schengen, the former is only possibly with the latter in hand. If Scotland signs up to Schengen while Britain doesn't, it does mean border checks. Britain doesn't have an open border with Schengen nations, only Ireland.

The point about North Sea Oil is just outrageous, plus it also counts Orkney and Shetland who's residents have previously said they would remain part of the UK if Scotland decides to become independent. Unless a new Scottish government is going to force O&S to remain in Scotland (I don't see that as feasible because the UK will not allow it) I don't see the oil and gas figure as being anywhere near true. In addition, the Scottish government has been much less favourable to tax credits and investment breaks for the oil and gas industry than the UK government, currently there are all kinds of decommissioning tax breaks which has allowed for money to be spent on developing new fields and getting more out of dying ones. That cost the government £3bn last year and £1.5bn this year, but next year the new fields and new output will benefit the Treasury by £2bn and then £3bn after that for 3-4 years. Scotland would find it tough to finance that £4.5bn upfront cost without making severe cuts to the state finances or borrowing an untenable amount of money. The money doesn't sound like a lot in isolation, but in relative terms it would be similar to the UK borrowing £45bn to give away in tax breaks for a couple of years with no guarantee of returns. £4.5bn is a small bet for the UK but it would require a Scottish government to leverage the nation's finances and hope it works out.

I'm not saying that Scotland can't be independent, far from it. I just think it is absolutely ridiculous for the SNP to state that everything would stay the same when Scotland would have a massive, massive deficit (>10%, including all oil and gas, 15% including only Scotland's share) and no lender of last resort to back any paper. That means huge budget cuts all over the place. Free university would be the first to go, second would be free prescriptions, then there would be new alcohol taxes, corporation tax would go up (then come back down as companies run for the border), income tax would go up. The scenario painted by the SNP - that independence means no change - is a dishonest one, and sadly anyone who points that out will be labelled a hater or "talking down Scotland".

That's just incorrect. An absolute falsehood. Their Lib Dem led political core may be muttering that but the polling on the issue has support for an breakaway from Scotland on the islands at 8%. http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/3201771 as far I'm aware only the local press has commissioned any polling into the matter. As a whole the Islands, like most of Scotland, are against independence but there is no credible threat to remove themselves from the process if the vote is YES.
 
The whole institution of the BBC needs a total re-looking at. It's original raison d'etre simply isn't relevant anymore - if it wants to justify its continued receipt if a quasi tax, let alone receive an increase, it needs it's mandate and goals reset, IMO.

I think a lot of shows on the BBC are not very good so when they do rewrite the charter I think they should make it less about ratings and more about quality. I think it's still important that we have a few channels of mass media that are not subjected to the will of the advertisers.
 

kitch9

Banned
http://www.globalresearch.ca/speaki...claims-austerity-cuts-to-be-permanent/5358093

call me daves big society ...we're all in it together.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ive-in-the-uk-solihull-comes-top-8938636.html

Uswitchworstplace+-+Copy.jpg


the union still shit, and westminster is a ravenous nonce assembly. Can't fault for the scots for wanting out.

Scottish parliament give a lot of stuff away for free which we do not get in England. Maybe they should have a rethink.

Maybe?

Or maybe calling parliament nonces is the better idea?
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Really happy that our country is finally making the moves into punishing thought crimes with 3 years of jail time.

Also can't wait to have to make the "hello I'd like to see the internet with titties on" phonecall sometime next year if my ISP yields to 1984 fucking insanity.
 
Really happy that our country is finally making the moves into punishing thought crimes with 3 years of jail time.

Also can't wait to have to make the "hello I'd like to see the internet with titties on" phonecall sometime next year if my ISP yields to 1984 fucking insanity.

Your IP address has already been logged mane. D:
 

SKINNER!

Banned
Really happy that our country is finally making the moves into punishing thought crimes with 3 years of jail time.

Also can't wait to have to make the "hello I'd like to see the internet with titties on" phonecall sometime next year if my ISP yields to 1984 fucking insanity.

Before you know it, Cameron might even ban talking if he continues listening to the daily mail crowd.
 
So what's your guys' thoughts on Morrissey's newest rant?

http://true-to-you.net/morrissey_news_131118_01http://true-to-you.net/morrissey_news_131118_01

Thank you to Russell Brand for standing up and speaking out in recent weeks. Like anyone who speaks out in modern Britain, he has been shot down. Nothing must interfere with the depressive psychosis of modern Britain, which has become a most violent and melancholic country, with no space for measured debate. Like Russell, I believe that the most powerful vote you can give is No Vote; for the days of Prime Ministers have gone, and it's time for a form of change that is far more meaningful than simply switching blue to red. The print media will only support people who do not matter and who are incapable of instigating thought - David 'rent-a-smile' Beckham; his wife - famous for having nothing to do; the dum dum dummies of the Katie Price set; the overweight Jamie 'Orrible, who tells us all how to eat correctly.
At what point did the dis-United Kingdom become a cabbagehead nation? Where is the rich intellect of debate? Where is our Maya Angelou, our James Baldwin, our Allen Ginsberg, our Anthony Burgess, our political and social reformers? At what point did the shatterbrained scatterbrains take over - with all leading British politicians suddenly looking like extras from Brideshead Revisited? Although it is clear to assess the Addams Family of SW1X as the utterly useless and embarrassing ambassadors of a sinking England, how can we effect change without being tear-gassed? In the absence of democracy, there is no way.

I write this without outburst; a staunch non-terrorist, quietly, calmly and composedly, as I mourn the loss of the land.
 
"No space for measured discussion"? He was on the country's premier current affairs show, what we does Morrissey want? I just think 'measured debate' is his way of saying 'why won't people just agree with me?'
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...Labour-Well-scrap-benefits-for-under-25s.html

What the fuck? I mean WHAT THE FUCK?

Oh you want benefits? Well I hope you're okay with slavery!

I think it's a pretty awful policy, but a comparison to slavery is pretty ridiculous when you consider that a) anything done is in exchange for money, which is sort of the point and b) one of those things is searching for a job. Not workfare or volunteering, but searching for a job.

The £25k means testing is silly, as is the age actually. I don't really understand the arbitrary nature of the age limit.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I think it's a pretty awful policy, but a comparison to slavery is pretty ridiculous when you consider that a) anything done is in exchange for money, which is sort of the point and b) one of those things is searching for a job. Not workfare or volunteering, but searching for a job.

The £25k means testing is silly, as is the age actually. I don't really understand the arbitrary nature of the age limit.

Of course it isn't slavery, or anything remotely like it. But it is a prime example of bandwagon-jumping and of the dreadful state of what passes for political debate in the country. The devil, as always, is in the detail - which nobody seems to be going into - and pretty well every way you look at this policy the law of unintended consequences kicks in no matter how sensible the overall policy might be (which nobody seems to have attempted to explain either, it is just soundbites all the way).

But any party which supports the lowering of the voting age and is attempting a landgrab for the youth vote ought to have thought very carefully before adopting such a policy. There's little evidence of such thought.
 
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