UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

Nicktendo86 said:
The thing that makes me laugh the most is I've heard two things from Milliband this week; wanting to close the loophole which allows low skilled immigrants to undercut locals and the betting shop machines. BOTH of which were caused by Labour when in power! Fantastic election slogan idea: "we will reverse everything we did from 97-10, promise!"
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What do you want them to do? Complain if they do, complain if they don't. If you think this is the right thing to do, support it. If not, criticise it. Milliband wasn't in charge and large amounts of that leadership is gone; they've tried hard to move away from New Labour as it is...

CyclopsRock said:
It all sounds rather a lot like an intentional "leak", a proverbial bone so that when they eventually reveal it to be closer to as you say, it can be them making a compromise with their backbenchers.
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That was my impression too.
 
vcassano1 said:
What do you want them to do? Complain if they do, complain if they don't. If you think this is the right thing to do, support it. If not, criticise it. Milliband wasn't in charge and large amounts of that leadership is gone; they've tried hard to move away from New Labour as it is...



That was my impression too.
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Its when they act like its is all the Tories fault it gets on my wick.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Its when they act like its is all the Tories fault it gets on my wick.
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Everybody does this, and it's really irritating. Like the world only started in 2010, or 1997, or 1979.

I think we should have an Office of Speechmaking Responsibility to determine that all political speeches should be baselined at the same place: like 1945, or 1882, or maybe in 18th century France; it would make just as much sense.

This long-drawn-out foreplay to the election is a strange side-effect of the fixed-term parliament thing. I miss the old snap 6-week campaigns.
 
phisheep said:
Everybody does this, and it's really irritating. Like the world only started in 2010, or 1997, or 1979.

I think we should have an Office of Speechmaking Responsibility to determine that all political speeches should be baselined at the same place: like 1945, or 1882, or maybe in 18th century France; it would make just as much sense.

This long-drawn-out foreplay to the election is a strange side-effect of the fixed-term parliament thing. I miss the old snap 6-week campaigns.
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Oh 100% agree, sick of the bullshit from all sides. I'm just finding the Tories slightly less irritating than labour at the moment. Sorry state of affairs...
 
phisheep said:
Everybody does this, and it's really irritating. Like the world only started in 2010, or 1997, or 1979.

I think we should have an Office of Speechmaking Responsibility to determine that all political speeches should be baselined at the same place: like 1945, or 1882, or maybe in 18th century France; it would make just as much sense.

This long-drawn-out foreplay to the election is a strange side-effect of the fixed-term parliament thing. I miss the old snap 6-week campaigns.
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To be fair, and slightly off-topic....but five year terms are insane. I don't think anywhere else in the Anglosphere has terms anywhere near as long.

American congressional terms are two years. Although to be fair their split executive/legislature system means their executive has a four year term.

Australians get three year terms.

New Zealand has three year terms.

Oh that's interesting. Canada has a maximum of five as well.

Well I'd say there goes my argument but five years is too bloody long. It makes the stakes so damn high...and dissuades swing votes when the government is doing a terrible job. Although that might be a good thing depending on your viewpoint.
 
Too short terms brings short term opportunist policy in my opinion, we already get too many issues kicked into the long grass as it is such as airport expansion. We need longer term planning. I'm not a fan of fixed term parliaments though, only brought in to lock the Tories and lib dems into government and should be repealed after the election IMHO, I want it to be easier to dissolve parliament in case of a really corrupt/incompetent government. It is a tough balance to strike...
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Too short terms brings short term opportunist policy in my opinion, we already get too many issues kicked into the long grass as it is such as airport expansion. We need longer term planning. I'm not a fan of fixed term parliaments though, only brought in to lock the Tories and lib dems into government and should be repealed after the election IMHO, I want it to be easier to dissolve parliament in case of a really corrupt/incompetent government. It is a tough balance to strike...
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Actually now that you mention it a five year fixed date is a little odd...We don't currently (in Australia) know the date of the next election, but we know it has to occur SOMETIME in the next three years (we just had ours)....

I'd say that was preferable. I'm not a huge fan of the UK system where the government gets to decide, when and more importantly if there is another election. I know famously Churchill said to hell with democracy during the war. Which was bullshit, Lincoln, in the midst of a CIVIL WAR, decided to hold an election.
 
Prior to the five year fixed term decision in 2010, the leading party in power has always had the power to send it's Prime Minister to the Queen to ask her to dissolve Government to call an election. The main point of the five year term was to bring political stability in a time of financial difficulty.
 
Dan27 said:
Prior to the five year fixed term decision in 2010, the leading party in power has always had the power to send it's Prime Minister to the Queen to ask her to dissolve Government to call an election. The main point of the five year term was to bring political stability in a time of financial difficulty.
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It's to tie the two coalition parties to each other so that the Lib Dems can't flounce away and force the Tories into a minority, or so that the Tories can't unilaterally call an election if their polling is good.

After the coalition ends I think the fixed term Parliament bill will be taken off the statue book. No need for it.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
It's to tie the two coalition parties to each other so that the Lib Dems can't flounce away and force the Tories into a minority, or so that the Tories can't unilaterally call an election if their polling is good.

After the coalition ends I think the fixed term Parliament bill will be taken off the statue book. No need for it.
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Makes more sense :) thanks Zomg
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Inflation down to the 2% target for the first time since 2009, I still think it is way too early for the BoE to raise interest rates. 2015 maybe? Apparently inflation is being helped by a slowdown in cost of food, particularly meat and fruit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25726621
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From a selfish point of view, I can't wait for interest rates to rise to see what happens to the help to buy thing, as it'll be interesting to see who mortgaged themselves to the hilt.
 
Sorry to DP but on the same day that inflation has fallen to 2% Milliband has written in the Telegraph of another 'crisis', now it's the middle class crisis! BBC also say that the monthly ICM poll has Labour's lead cut to 3%, was 5% in December and 8% in November. He doesn't have a clue does he.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25723682

Edit: again in a purely selfish way jimbor I hope interest rates stay low as my mortgage has just gone from a fixed rate to a tracker thing, I could do with another year of low interest rates before I really start to save next year.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Sorry to DP but on the same day that inflation has fallen to 2% Milliband has written in the Telegraph of another 'crisis', now it's the middle class crisis! BBC also say that the monthly ICM poll has Labour's lead cut to 3%, was 5% in December and 8% in November. He doesn't have a clue does he.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25723682

Edit: again in a purely selfish way jimbor I hope interest rates stay low as my mortgage has just gone from a fixed rate to a tracker thing, I could do with another year of low interest rates before I really start to save next year.
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I took a mortgage which was guaranteed to track 1% above BAE base rate just at the end of 2007, I don't want them to rise either!

Labour are desperately looking for problems that don't really exist so they can repeat it over and over and over and over and over. Inflation down, interest rates record lows, economy growing fairly quickly, unemployment falling, if they aren't the building blocks for a rise in living standards nothing will be.
 
I read a funny thing a little while ago from... someone, who was comparing the traditional use of the word "crisis" to the way Ed uses it. Was vair, vair funny.
 
Nicktendo86 said:
Sorry to DP but on the same day that inflation has fallen to 2% Milliband has written in the Telegraph of another 'crisis', now it's the middle class crisis! BBC also say that the monthly ICM poll has Labour's lead cut to 3%, was 5% in December and 8% in November. He doesn't have a clue does he.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25723682

Edit: again in a purely selfish way jimbor I hope interest rates stay low as my mortgage has just gone from a fixed rate to a tracker thing, I could do with another year of low interest rates before I really start to save next year.
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It's amazing how ineffective he has been in capitalising upon his post conference popularity. As soon as some of the still small 'green shoots' began to appear he seemingly shit the proverbial bed and disappeared back into the shadows. Less than 17 months from a GE and there's no decent opposition in sight, which is saddening to say the least. Although to be fair Labour have been lost for some time, so perhaps it's no surprise where they stand today.
 
The way Labour have the same 'COST OF LIVING AHHHHH' response to every bit of good news is very funny.

There idea about restricting the number of big banks branches seems like it would just put a bunch of people out of jobs. And it's not look those that would be affected are the ones getting the big bonuses either.
 
They do not seem to have a clue, its like they were banking on the economy flatlining and as it looks like that hasn't happened they are jumping from one created crisis to the next. We really need a strong opposition with good ideas, what we have is about as effective as a damp sock.
 
f0rk said:
The way Labour have the same 'COST OF LIVING AHHHHH' response to every bit of good news is very funny.

There idea about restricting the number of big banks branches seems like it would just put a bunch of people out of jobs. And it's not look those that would be affected are the ones getting the big bonuses either.
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Aside from anything, the last two or three times I've actually gone physically into my bank have been to get new debit cards. They're basically a post office for me now, and even if they weren't, having lots of branches really isn't a problem - especially when one considers how massively leveraged their current account balances were at the height of the boom vs their investments .

And I think Dan Hodges hit the nail on the head at the end of last year:

"And on the most fundamental question of all – how does a progressive political party recast society in its image in an age of austerity? – there was no answer. In fact, there wasn’t even an attempt at an answer. A year that began with calls for Labour to recapture the spirit of 1945 ended with a promise to cut energy bills by £5.80 a month, ban fixed-odds betting terminals and tackle the pernicious sexism of Thomas the Tank Engine."
 
Labour seem to have very little identity at the moment. I find it a bit strange that they're seemingly trying to elbow-nudge their way into the middle-class with their latest cost-of-living statements. I have to think this is some kind of ploy to tap into the UKIP vote.

They should tread carefully, the last thing they would want is to be shrugged off by the middle-class while also alienating the lower-class - who may not look at these overtures favourably.
 
This actually going to be a really intersting election, because if the campaign kicked off tomorrow, I really wouldn't have any idea what the result would be.
 
FliXFantatier said:
There really isn't that much movement in the polls during the last month

Nevertheless I wonder how long Milibean will be able to cling to power.
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As we get closer to the election he HAS to come out with some actual, ya know, policy. And have it all properly budgeted, but all I hear at the moment from him is complete and utter nonsense. Even the morning star was tearing into him yesterday about his 'middle class crisis' editorial in the Telegraph. He's such a massive tool, I think it's a miracle he has a poll lead at all.
 
WayneMorse said:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/15/george-osborne-reform-eu-quits-tory-dismantling



Yeah because that has nothing to do with the fact that India and China have a huge supply of low wage workers and are rapidly industrializing countries.
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I think that was basically his point, though. During the boom years, wages in most of Europe went up very quickly in line with their growth, but their inflexibility has meant that it's not possible for them to now go down again, leaving them massively uncompetitive. So are we, to an extent, albeit a much smaller one - control of our own currency, combined with general better financial health allowing firms to simply not give raises as opposed to immediately needing to cut pay has made it easier for us to weather, and that's all in spite of our economy being more dependent on Financial Industries - the one most hit in the latest crisis - than all the rest of Europe. His analysis is hardly wrong.
 
In the day and age when we're seeing multiple shit-list actors, Z-list celebrities and DJ's dragged through the courts because of allegations of sexual misconduct dating back decades (with what I assume is relatively little/no evidence), how come the evidence against a Lib Dem peer, facing allegations of sexual harassment from multiple women, is deemed to be insufficient, despite an independent review finding the claims to be credible? What a crock of shit. Obvious cover-up is obvious cover-up.
 
Bo-Locks said:
In the day and age when we're seeing multiple shit-list actors, Z-list celebrities and DJ's dragged through the courts because of allegations of sexual misconduct dating back decades (with what I assume is relatively little/no evidence), how come the evidence against a Lib Dem peer, facing allegations of sexual harassment from multiple women, is deemed to be insufficient, despite an independent review finding the claims to be credible? What a crock of shit. Obvious cover-up is obvious cover-up.
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The cover-up here was in the terms of reference for the internal review.

Usually these would to be to find on the balance of probabilities whether the guy did it. Here it was to decide on the balance of probabilities whether he would have been found guilty beyond reasonable doubt had he ever been charged.

Stitch-up from the start.
 
I was just reading Ed's banking proposals. Laughable ideas.

A hard market share limit of 25% - stupid idea that will see prices and charges go up as competition is artificially limited. Until the banking sector is properly opened up for new entrants any kind of arbitrary market share limit is just going to see costs rise for the punter.

Fewer banks on the high street - what a nice, easy way for banks like mine to fire thousands of branch staff and blame it on government regulations. This is like mana from heaven for senior retail management at banks like mine.

Limiting bonuses at RBS - while I agree in principle that state owned banks should be pared down, we still need to see some kind of ROI from the bail out. Introducing a cap on bonuses at RBS will just cause the actually decent staff to leave and end up elsewhere in the city, damaging profitability and the underlying value of RBS which is 87% state owned. If the state is ever going to get a return (like that which has been seen for Lloyds) then if anything RBS needs to get back to some kind of regular business so profitability returns faster and it can be sold for a profit. Chasing away the actually decent people isn't going to help RBS's value increase.

The proposals are poorly thought out and all, unsurprisingly, geared towards short term headline grabbing rather than being good policies that can make up manifesto commitments.

Ed's MO - when in doubt bash the bankers. The problem is that bankers aren't high as high up on people's hate lists as they used to be. There haven't been any recent headlines to drive it, and the one bank that did fail was the Co-op which is linked to Labour and had an idiot ex-Labour councillor running who knew nothing about banking. Getting Lloyds sold off for a profit is what has driven the attitude change, even I find people less hostile than before when they discover I work in the City. The next tranche of LLOY will produce a profit of over £200m, even taking into account the NAO's dodgy calculations.
 
LLOY is my wonder stock at the moment. I got into it pretty late but it's already up about 20% on when I bought in. RBS has had a ... tumultuous time but it's doing good now.

(My previous wonder stock, Best Buy, recently shat the bed in a horrible way).
 
Nicktendo86 said:
As we get closer to the election he HAS to come out with some actual, ya know, policy. And have it all properly budgeted, but all I hear at the moment from him is complete and utter nonsense. Even the morning star was tearing into him yesterday about his 'middle class crisis' editorial in the Telegraph. He's such a massive tool, I think it's a miracle he has a poll lead at all.
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I imagine Ed's advisors are telling him to hold off on detail for the time being whenever he can, especially regarding the economy, given that we're still at the very earliest stages of recovery at present. Maybe they're hoping that his headline policies and sound bites regarding the cost of living and something about the middle class will suffice. Then form detailed policies as late as politically possible in order to have them as 'relevant' and topical as Labour can in order to win votes?

The thing is that many families are massively up against the wall. The issue is that for all parties these problems are hard to define, many in number, and more so hard to create sustainable solutions for ( in particular sweeping headline policies that can be summed up easily and would kill many birds with one stone). Take the info from the charity Shelter today regarding families paying for rent/mortgages with Payday Loans for instance. Sure it doesn't affect millions of families, but it's one of many struggles people are facing.
 
Little Old Man said:
I imagine Ed's advisors are telling him to hold off on detail for the time being whenever he can, especially regarding the economy, given that we're still at the very earliest stages of recovery at present. Maybe they're hoping that his headline policies and sound bites regarding the cost of living and something about the middle class will suffice. Then form detailed policies as late as politically possible in order to have them as 'relevant' and topical as Labour can in order to win votes?

The thing is that many families are massively up against the wall. The issue is that for all parties these problems are hard to define, many in number, and more so hard to create sustainable solutions for ( in particular sweeping headline policies that can be summed up easily and would kill many birds with one stone). Take the info from the charity Shelter today regarding families paying for rent/mortgages with Payday Loans for instance. Sure it doesn't affect millions of families, but it's one of many struggles people are facing.
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People borrowing money to pay for stuff.

Wow, that's never happened before, we should be outraged.
 
kitch9 said:
People borrowing money to pay for stuff.

Wow, that's never happened before, we should be outraged.
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You don't think it's an issue that people are turning to payday loans to cover their mortgage/rent? Or that many banks are very restrictive with the information they provide to lenders on the help/advice that is out there, or measures that can be taken to alleviate some of their issues?
 
Little Old Man said:
You don't think it's an issue that people are turning to payday loans to cover their mortgage/rent? Or that many banks are very restrictive with the information they provide to lenders on the help/advice that is out there, or measures that can be taken to alleviate some of their issues?
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Can you link to the info? I'm curious as to whether the numbers are increasing or just "high" (as per Shelter's verdict). I wonder if it's getting worse, because I can't really see why it would be. Employment has been going up pretty solidly for over a year now. Could it be another side effect of the universal credit system problems, I wonder, like food banks - ie, people getting pay day loans because their housing benefit is late, rather than because their monthly income doesn't cover it. Ie a cashflow problem.
 
CyclopsRock said:
Can you link to the info? I'm curious as to whether the numbers are increasing or just "high" (as per Shelter's verdict). I wonder if it's getting worse, because I can't really see why it would be. Employment has been going up pretty solidly for over a year now. Could it be another side effect of the universal credit system problems, I wonder, like food banks - ie, people getting pay day loans because their housing benefit is late, rather than because their monthly income doesn't cover it. Ie a cashflow problem.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25733830

No indication if numbers using payday loans are rising or not, though the charity as a whole is getting more calls in general (with seemingly more unwilling to ask for advice).

Regarding employment figures: don't forget that people will often take work out of necessity to just keep afloat. They might not get the hours they need, nor the wage/salary they were once on, which leaves them with little or no room to maneuver. And I imagine that problems like this are more regional, since I very much doubt that the economic recovery to date is that evenly spread.
 
Little Old Man said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25733830

No indication if numbers using payday loans are rising or not, though the charity as a whole is getting more calls in general (with seemingly more unwilling to ask for advice).

Regarding employment figures: don't forget that people will often take work out of necessity to just keep afloat. They might not get the hours they need, nor the wage/salary they were once on, which leaves them with little or no room to maneuver. And I imagine that problems like this are more regional, since I very much doubt that the economic recovery to date is that evenly spread.
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You're certainly right that it's probably regional. And it's true that not everyone has the earnings/hours that they want, but employment was going down for a long time. You'd think that it'd be at this point that the call numbers would be going up, with them then going down again as employment went up, even if the numbers of calls were still higher than at the same level of employment pre-recession (well, sort of - we currently have a higher percentage of people out of work than our lowest, but the most employed in absolute terms - it's easy to dismiss the increase in population as it happens over time, but that is going to increase stuff like this too, of course).

Thanks for the link - the Wonga rep seemed to think the numbers haven't increased, and I guess they have better numbers than Shelter, but who knows.
 
"YouGov conducted the survey for Shelter and spoke to 4,085 adults overall, with about a quarter of the respondents saying they would be too ashamed to ask for help if they were struggling with housing costs."

And this is the core of the problem IMO. Payday lenders should never be a solution to this - proper financial advice and negotiations with the lender should always be the first avenue to pursue in such a situation.

It's really a common sense thing.
 
CyclopsRock said:
(My previous wonder stock, Best Buy, recently shat the bed in a horrible way).
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And, as if by magic...

Shares of Best Buy Co. Inc. BBY -28.11% plunged 31% in premarket trade Thursday after the retailer said its total revenue dropped to $11.45 billion in the holiday period from $11.75 billion a year earlier.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...day-sales-drop-2014-01-16?link=MW_latest_news

Nothing to do with UK politics, I just thought I'd mention it...
 
CyclopsRock said:
Can you link to the info? I'm curious as to whether the numbers are increasing or just "high" (as per Shelter's verdict). I wonder if it's getting worse, because I can't really see why it would be. Employment has been going up pretty solidly for over a year now. Could it be another side effect of the universal credit system problems, I wonder, like food banks - ie, people getting pay day loans because their housing benefit is late, rather than because their monthly income doesn't cover it. Ie a cashflow problem.
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The universal credit is only up and running in a couple of areas IIRC and even then it's a borked version only dealing with JSA. At least that was the situation last time I read about it.
 
CyclopsRock said:
LLOY is my wonder stock at the moment. I got into it pretty late but it's already up about 20% on when I bought in. RBS has had a ... tumultuous time but it's doing good now.

(My previous wonder stock, Best Buy, recently shat the bed in a horrible way).
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I'm in a pretty good share save program with the LLOY stock, essentially bought £7200 worth at 40p back in June and they're up to ~85p at the minute. I can't sell until June 2016, but i like the look of where they're going at the minute.
 
Little Old Man said:
You don't think it's an issue that people are turning to payday loans to cover their mortgage/rent? Or that many banks are very restrictive with the information they provide to lenders on the help/advice that is out there, or measures that can be taken to alleviate some of their issues?
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People borrow money for all kinds of reasons, they always have. The proliferation of payday loans is concerning but that's it's own debate, they encourage people to borrow money for simple everyday stuff.
 
Scuderia said:
I'm in a pretty good share save program with the LLOY stock, essentially bought £7200 worth at 40p back in June and they're up to ~85p at the minute. I can't sell until June 2016, but i like the look of where they're going at the minute.
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Sounds good. I just doubled up on it yesterday. It's doing pretty well, it's going to start paying dividend soon and if you look beyond the 5yr chart to the Max, it used to be sooo much higher. I know the banks might never see their shares go back to the heady heights of the mid thousands, but still, I think they have a long way to grow.
 
jimbor said:
The universal credit is only up and running in a couple of areas IIRC and even then it's a borked version only dealing with JSA. At least that was the situation last time I read about it.
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I believe that's true, but the areas it has and now is moving to cover have been fraught with problems re: delivery - there have been quite a few people getting delays in their benefits. If you take a look at any of the food bank articles from a few weeks back, a lot of them mentioned that delayed, rather than reduced, benefits were the cause for the need for going to a food bank.
 
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