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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

K

kitch9

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
No it isn't. GDP (inflation adjusted?) might be, but the population has grown significantly since 2008 so GDP per capita (inflation adjusted) is still significantly shy.

Working at the moment, but did a quick search which led here: http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/ukgdp/
Code: 
Year		Real GDP per capita (2008 prices)
2000		£20,129
2001		£20,683
2002		£21,159
2003		£21,819
2004		£22,355
2005		£22,673
2006		£23,130
2007		£23,774
2008		£23,354
2009		£22,190
2010		£22,440
2011		£22,490
2012		£22,377
2013		£22,577

In real terms we were in 2005 territory last year. Even with 3% real terms growth per capita (which is unlikely) that still keeps us in 2006 territory.

Make no mistake, this has been a phantom decade in terms of real growth. I can't imagine how much worse that looks if you limit the view to even the lower 8 deciles!
Click to expand...

That's not a good measure either really as it's just an average.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
Moosichu said:
I know I don't post often but I have been lurking.

Anyway, the Crown Prosecution Service has been forced to release more reports on Cyril Smith under the freedom of information act.

http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5334/cps-forced-to-disclose-damning-police-report-on-cyril-smith

There is more at the link, but there was a report on Cyril Smith in 1970 which concluded that he was a predatory paedophile, yet no action was taken.
Click to expand...

No action was taken - and in the last few months of a Labour government. Interesting.

I see Ofgem are taking powers to control energy prices, and that the BoE have confirmed plans to take back bonuses from bankers up to a period of seven years.

Wonder what the two Eds have to say about that..
 
M

Moosichu

Member
Dan27 said:
No action was taken - and in the last few months of a Labour government. Interesting.

I see Ofgem are taking powers to control energy prices, and that the BoE have confirmed plans to take back bonuses from bankers up to a period of seven years.

Wonder what the two Eds have to say about that..
Click to expand...

Its cross-party. Allegedly former conservative cabinet ministers are paedophiles. On the flip-side the call for an inquiry by MPs was cross-party.

Tom Watson, Zac Goldsmith, Caroline Lucas, Tim Loughton, Simon Danczuk, John Hemming and Tessa Munt lead that :) .

The top branches of MI5, MI6, Westminster and the Police have been implicated to contain paedophiles or at least been involved in the cover-up of them. And we aren't talking about touching up a 14 year old in a closet, but taking orphans to sex-parties, torturing and raping them.

Now, if there are people as with a lot of power capable of that much horror, how far will they go to keep it covered up?
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Dan27 said:
No action was taken - and in the last few months of a Labour government. Interesting.

I see Ofgem are taking powers to control energy prices, and that the BoE have confirmed plans to take back bonuses from bankers up to a period of seven years.

Wonder what the two Eds have to say about that..
Click to expand...

I'm confused - what's it got to do with the BoE what bankers get paid? Unless they're talking about their own?
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Interesting tweets her from @hopisen:

Poll nerds: Confused by Lab 6pt & 1pt lead in last 2 YouGovs? Is cause ydays poll had 18-24s split 59-11 Lab & doubled value in weighting while todays had Tory lead among 18-24s, which was also slightly upweighted. As usual, young people are a right bugger.

In other words, the 18-24 demographic is either wildly changeable (unlikely in a day) or, as a demographic, particularly un-unified. He says "As usual" but I wonder if this trend is a newish one in terms of politics (ie, in the last 10-20 years, or has it always been like this?)
 
W

Walshicus

Member
kitch9 said:
That's not a good measure either really as it's just an average.
Click to expand...

Of course. Better would be GDP per capita (inflation adjusted) broken out by decile. I wouldn't want to speculate too much, but I'd be surprised if that metric wasn't showing even *worse* performance.

Make no mistake, we're years away from being outside the recession's shadow.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
Of course. Better would be GDP per capita (inflation adjusted) broken out by decile. I wouldn't want to speculate too much, but I'd be surprised if that metric wasn't showing even *worse* performance.

Make no mistake, we're years away from being outside the recession's shadow.
Click to expand...

Maybe we should just be thankful that we aren't in any other country in the world which is performing significantly worse.

Which is most of em.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
I'm confused - how does GDP per capita work in terms of deciles? In terms of who owns how much of the GDP? Because that would become troublesome when you consider that children (Who are economically inactive, typically) are included in the "per capita" calculations, and government spending is included in GDP calculations which doesn't really belong to anyone.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I'm confused - how does GDP per capita work in terms of deciles? In terms of who owns how much of the GDP? Because that would become troublesome when you consider that children (Who are economically inactive, typically) are included in the "per capita" calculations, and government spending is included in GDP calculations which doesn't really belong to anyone.
Click to expand...

Well you'd just use the Income approach to calculate GDP rather than the Expenditure method.


Maybe we should just be thankful that we aren't in any other country in the world which is performing significantly worse.

Which is most of em.
Click to expand...
Lots of countries did better in the 2004-2013 period than we did. Netherlands saw a 4.6% increase in real GDPpp. France saw 2.0% compared to our 1.3%.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Sir Fragula said:
Well you'd just use the Income approach to calculate GDP rather than the Expenditure method.
Click to expand...

But that has problems too - after all, there are 14.3 million homeowners in England (just the figure I found - not sure about the rest of the UK) with a population of 53m, almost all of whom will have seen their assets rise in value over the past 10 years (even when you take into account the 2008-2010 dip) but their income might not have.

Which leads us to....

Lots of countries did better in the 2004-2013 period than we did. Netherlands saw a 4.6% increase in real GDPpp. France saw 2.0% compared to our 1.3%.
Click to expand...

And yet both of these countries have higher unemployment rates than us - France markedly more, and still rising - so...

The search for the ultimate financial measurement continues!
 
W

Walshicus

Member
CyclopsRock said:
But that has problems too - after all, there are 14.3 million homeowners in England (just the figure I found - not sure about the rest of the UK) with a population of 53m, almost all of whom will have seen their assets rise in value over the past 10 years (even when you take into account the 2008-2010 dip) but their income might not have.
Click to expand...

That's only true for the minority of those who "cash out" of the housing market. For people who actually live in homes that rise in "value" was universal and has either adversely affected their ability to work up the ladder or else prevented others from getting on it entirely.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Sir Fragula said:
That's only true for the minority of those who "cash out" of the housing market. For people who actually live in homes that rise in "value" was universal and has either adversely affected their ability to work up the ladder or else prevented others from getting on it entirely.
Click to expand...

Well, it's up to them whether or not they cash out, but an asset is an asset. If you're one of the people that doesn't own a home, you'd have been renting all that time. And you're still renting now. People who were homeowners during that time could have made an investment of £X and now find they can, indeed, "cash out" (either by renting or re-mortgaging their property) and have, yikes, in some places £4X to spend. That's a huge chunk of money they have just to go back to paying what those without houses were already paying anyway (ie rent).

I do know what you're saying, but to dismiss it entirely is like saying that cars have no value because if you sold your car, you'd just have to pay to get the train. Well, yeah - but you'd also have all that money from the car you sold. If you were a homeowner and saw your investment rise 4x in 25 years, it's up to you whether you release that in a liquid form or not.
 
M

Moosichu

Member
CyclopsRock said:
But that has problems too - after all, there are 14.3 million homeowners in England (just the figure I found - not sure about the rest of the UK) with a population of 53m, almost all of whom will have seen their assets rise in value over the past 10 years (even when you take into account the 2008-2010 dip) but their income might not have.

Which leads us to....



And yet both of these countries have higher unemployment rates than us - France markedly more, and still rising - so...

The search for the ultimate financial measurement continues!
Click to expand...

Maybe purely financial measures aren't the best way to compare how countries are doing relative to each other. Maybe something like GPI is more suitable when it comes to determing how 'well' a country is doing.

This does introduce subjectivity into the whole thing, and determing how things are weighted is difficult. But maybe the advantages outway those disadvanteges.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Moosichu said:
Maybe purely financial measures aren't the best way to compare how countries are doing relative to each other. Maybe something like GPI is more suitable when it comes to determing how 'well' a country is doing.

This does introduce subjectivity into the whole thing, and determing how things are weighted is difficult. But maybe the advantages outway those disadvanteges.
Click to expand...

I'm no economist, so most of this discussion just goes over my head. But I will say that I'm immediately sceptical of any measurement with "Genuine" right there in the name.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Moosichu said:
Maybe purely financial measures aren't the best way to compare how countries are doing relative to each other. Maybe something like GPI is more suitable when it comes to determing how 'well' a country is doing.

This does introduce subjectivity into the whole thing, and determing how things are weighted is difficult. But maybe the advantages outway those disadvanteges.
Click to expand...

I'm open to non-financial but measurable things being included but we have to acknowledge that then a) they cease to be an actual financial indicator and more of a "happiness" indicator and b) will always involve the idea that there's *a* perfect or ideal or target society against which all countries are to be compared, based on whatever its criteria is. One would be able to more or less see the political leanings of the inventor by working out what kind of society or country would get the highest "score" as it were.
 
M

Moosichu

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
I'm no economist, so most of this discussion just goes over my head. But I will say that I'm immediately sceptical of any measurement with "Genuine" right there in the name.
Click to expand...

I read an article on it (or maybe it was something smiliar) in the New Scientist. It is being taken quite seriously by some states. However it is a 'first attempt' at looking at things differently and measuring a country's 'progress'.

CyclopsRock said:
I'm open to non-financial but measurable things being included but we have to acknowledge that then a) they cease to be an actual financial indicator and more of a "happiness" indicator and b) will always involve the idea that there's *a* perfect or ideal or target society against which all countries are to be compared, based on whatever its criteria is. One would be able to more or less see the political leanings of the inventor by working out what kind of society or country would get the highest "score" as it were.
Click to expand...

I am in complete agreement there. But I do think that individual happiness should into account. (Where do we start right?) Problem is that does open a whole kettle of fish.

However, I am very ignorant in economics and would like to learn. Otherwise I will make arguments which have already been taken apart before!

Couls you please point me to some resources?

I have done A-level mathematics and further mathematics and am starting uni in October so I wont shy away from resources with depth.

I want to become politcally engaged and join debating society at Uni and I hope this is a good place for practise and learning about the nuances of government and running the country.
 
S

Slightly Live

Dirty tag dodger
zero shift said:
How do you guys feel about George Galloway? I've been watching some of his stuff and he seems smart.
Click to expand...

George-Galloway-looking-like-a-twat.jpg

image-19-for-jimmy-savile-life-in-pictures-gallery-800040870.jpg

George-Galloway-being-arr-008.jpg


He's an arsehole.
 
J

JonathanEx

Member
Speaking of Galloway, was flicking through the TV and he has a show on Russia Today called 'SPUTNIK'. It's weird. Basically he blames the West for everything for an hour in a TK Maxx furnished room.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
zero shift said:
American.


So I take it that he isn't well liked? What kind of crazy stuff does he say?
Click to expand...

Understandable if you're looking at his political views without living in the political climate he operates in. Many of us here have seen interviews and various public appearances of Galloway where his behaviour overshadows any kind of point or view he tries to portray.

The guy is a twat. He's an attention whore and always pops up to spill his guts on TV at the most inopportune time.

There is also this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzWNXEtwHUc
 
Z

zero shift

Banned
Sucks to hear he is looney. I agreed with much of what he said on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Nicktendo86 said:
He was best mates with Saddam Hussein for a start, should give you a good idea.

Was my MP in Bethnal Green & Bow. Complete and utter cunt.
Click to expand...
IIRC so were many American politicians.
 
M

Maledict

Member
zero shift said:
Sucks to hear he is looney. I agreed with much of what he said on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.


IIRC so were many American politicians.
Click to expand...

I would be very, very wary of agreeing with George Galloway on anything. He's managed to get elected twice now by stirring up racial tension amongst Muslim communities, and both times the political campaigns got *very* nasty with a number of leaflets and claims from him and his supporters that were appalling (and wouldn't be out of place in a republican primary).

And when we say 'best mates' with Saddam Hussain, we don't mean in the 80s when everyone was trying to do business. Up until point of hanging he was still defending him, and since then his career has been based around repeating 'Tony Blair and his illegal war' as often as possible.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
CyclopsRock said:
Interesting tweets her from @hopisen:

Poll nerds: Confused by Lab 6pt & 1pt lead in last 2 YouGovs? Is cause ydays poll had 18-24s split 59-11 Lab & doubled value in weighting while todays had Tory lead among 18-24s, which was also slightly upweighted. As usual, young people are a right bugger.

In other words, the 18-24 demographic is either wildly changeable (unlikely in a day) or, as a demographic, particularly un-unified. He says "As usual" but I wonder if this trend is a newish one in terms of politics (ie, in the last 10-20 years, or has it always been like this?)
Click to expand...

Or, the more likely explanation and the one pollsters actually give, is that it's bloody hard to poll 18-24 year olds because they are far less likely to use landlines or take part in online polling panels. This means you get a very small sample size which then has to be massaged upwards in size to reflect how many 18-24 year olds there are in the general population, and that exacerbates how 'swingy' 18-24 year olds appear in the polls - a small change in a small sample becomes a big change when you turn that into a big sample. If you look at long-run averages of the 18-24 demographic which avoid this problem because of having a higher sample size, they're quite strongly unified (roughly 45/20/10 Lab/Con/Lib).
 
R

Real Hero

Member
Galloway is an egomaniac but he's also very smart and I rarely disagree with him. Although I probably would if I ever watched his RT stuff. The fact he even has his own show on their is a big knock against him.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Crab said:
Or, the more likely explanation and the one pollsters actually give, is that it's bloody hard to poll 18-24 year olds because they are far less likely to use landlines or take part in online polling panels. This means you get a very small sample size which then has to be massaged upwards in size to reflect how many 18-24 year olds there are in the general population, and that exacerbates how 'swingy' 18-24 year olds appear in the polls - a small change in a small sample becomes a big change when you turn that into a big sample. If you look at long-run averages of the 18-24 demographic which avoid this problem because of having a higher sample size, they're quite strongly unified (roughly 45/20/10 Lab/Con/Lib).
Click to expand...

Aaah, OK. I wondered why they were adding multipliers to the youth vote - though are the "massages" meant to end up with a proportional representation of the population or of the voter turnout demographic? Because obviously the latter is very different, with that same demographic that are hard to get hold of that ones also least likely to vote.
 
D

dapperbandit

Banned
Galloway is an odd guy. He's quite smart and he usually has something interesting to say but it just seems like he's got such a hateboner for "The West" that he hangs around with people you might call his ideological opponents just because they agree on that point. It seems bizarre that he has a slot on RT but I guess it suits his ego.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
dapperbandit said:
Galloway is an odd guy. He's quite smart and he usually has something interesting to say but it just seems like he's got such a hateboner for "The West" that he hangs around with people you might call his ideological opponents just because they agree on that point. It seems bizarre that he has a slot on RT but I guess it suits his ego.
Click to expand...

Yeah. On the one hand he was brilliant when up against that US Senate Committee (or whatever it was) ages back, on the other hand he's an arsehole who chooses his friends solely on the basis of whether or not they hate his enemies.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Crab said:
Or, the more likely explanation and the one pollsters actually give, is that it's bloody hard to poll 18-24 year olds because they are far less likely to use landlines or take part in online polling panels. This means you get a very small sample size which then has to be massaged upwards in size to reflect how many 18-24 year olds there are in the general population, and that exacerbates how 'swingy' 18-24 year olds appear in the polls - a small change in a small sample becomes a big change when you turn that into a big sample. If you look at long-run averages of the 18-24 demographic which avoid this problem because of having a higher sample size, they're quite strongly unified (roughly 45/20/10 Lab/Con/Lib).
Click to expand...

Ouch! Back when I was at uni Lib Dems seemed to be 'the' student party, and now they're down to 10% of 18-24 yr olds?

I mean, it's pretty obvious why, but still, ouch.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
CyclopsRock said:
Aaah, OK. I wondered why they were adding multipliers to the youth vote - though are the "massages" meant to end up with a proportional representation of the population or of the voter turnout demographic? Because obviously the latter is very different, with that same demographic that are hard to get hold of that ones also least likely to vote.
Click to expand...

Mostly the latter, though different polling companies do it differently. Any polling company which is part of the British Polling Council has to make their methodology publicly available, so you can find out relatively easily. Certainly, YouGov, ICM, and IpsosMORI all adjust on the basis of expected turnout.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
Crab said:
Mostly the latter, though different polling companies do it differently. Any polling company which is part of the British Polling Council has to make their methodology publicly available, so you can find out relatively easily. Certainly, YouGov, ICM, and IpsosMORI all adjust on the basis of expected turnout.
Click to expand...

Right! Thanks!
 
Z

zero shift

Banned
Maledict said:
I would be very, very wary of agreeing with George Galloway on anything. He's managed to get elected twice now by stirring up racial tension amongst Muslim communities, and both times the political campaigns got *very* nasty with a number of leaflets and claims from him and his supporters that were appalling (and wouldn't be out of place in a republican primary)..
Click to expand...

What kind of tension has he stirred up?

Real Hero said:
Galloway is an egomaniac but he's also very smart and I rarely disagree with him. Although I probably would if I ever watched his RT stuff. The fact he even has his own show on their is a big knock against him.
Click to expand...

I honestly let in a big sigh when someone posted he had a show on RT.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
WayneMorse said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/04/nick-clegg-tighter-controls-immigration-new-eu-states

Ah, so now 2015 will be officially fought on UKIP's terms and their narrative.

Fuck everything.
Click to expand...

Due to our electoral system UKIP's goals were only ever going to be met by changing the terms of the debate amongst the main parties. They've done pretty much what they set out to achieve here, by getting even the Lib Dems to pay lip service to immigrant-fearing Daily Mail readers.

This (and getting Dave to agree to an In/Out referendum) is their real victory, not a bunch of MEP seats no-one cares about.
 
W

Walshicus

Member
kitch9 said:
My town and many more around is struggling under the weight of large numbers of non English speaking eastern Europeans. This issue needs looking at.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. Eastern European migrants are rarely unable to speak English; they're culturally similar; they have high employment rates and most won't retire here.

I mean yeah, decades of immigration from places like the Indian subcontinent where programs and schemes to smooth over the cultural/religious barriers never got the funding they needed... yeah, I guess that's something to be concerned with.

Poles? Just not a problem.
 
K

kitch9

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
I doubt it. Eastern European migrants are rarely unable to speak English; they're culturally similar; they have high employment rates and most won't retire here.

I mean yeah, decades of immigration from places like the Indian subcontinent where programs and schemes to smooth over the cultural/religious barriers never got the funding they needed... yeah, I guess that's something to be concerned with.

Poles? Just not a problem.
Click to expand...

Poles are great, I haven't got a problem with Poles, their arrival did hammer wages down particularly in the building trade though.

The problem in my area is large numbers of the Roma community who are aggressive and actively try to push the other residents in the community out of their homes to make room for more of the Roma community turning up. There is an entire black market revolving around keeping these people here as long as possible and provided with as many benefits as possible for as long as possible.

You can delude yourself that people don't behave in this way and everyone plays skipping games and patta cake in a multi cultural hullabaloo but they do.

It amuses me when people from the leafy suburbs of Hampshire ask what the problem is and try to say it's not happening and it's good for everyone....
 
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