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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
I'm fucked off with all political parties of all colours now, might not even bother at the GE next year for the first time since I turned 18 ten years ago.
 
V

Volotaire

Member
I do like the 'read this article on other websites' feature on BBC news. It reminds me of Google news list results. I forget it is there from time to time.

ITV news said:
The pro-Palestine Bradford West MP suffered a suspected broken jaw, broken rib and bruising in the attack in Golborne Road, Notting Hill, London. He was released from hospital this morning (Saturday August 30).
Click to expand...

How violent or strong must have the attack been to sustain these injuries? I understand that George's comments may have been despicable, but this shouldn't be the response. George was already being probed by a police investigation and by his critics, debate should be enough.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
I have absolutely no idea if this is the case here but it's totally possible to break ribs by falling without protecting yourself as you land with your hands. All those injuries could have occurred from a single (hard) punch. He ain't a young man, either.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Holy moly. Latest poll in Clacton showing a 44 point lead to UKIP. Even if the Tories put Boris in as a candidate, Carswell would still walk it (with a 33 point lead).

Guess that answers our question about whether people would vote for the party or the person!
 
V

Volotaire

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
Holy moly. Latest poll in Clacton showing a 44 point lead to UKIP. Even if the Tories put Boris in as a candidate, Carswell would still walk it (with a 33 point lead).

Guess that answers our question about whether people would vote for the party or the person!
Click to expand...

What is the Survation poll? I have never heard this poll. I might go back a previous page to read through zombqqftw and Crab's debate on the different poll structure and integrity.

But yes, that is an incredible lead if this poll is reliable in its method. Looking at the Clancton demography and socio-economic structure, it seems most residents skewed towards elderly or middle-aged who outright own their properties. What surprises me, if this poll is reliable and reflective of the sentiment, is that most residents have no qualifications in this area. This seems to be slightly at odds with how large political participation according to this poll. Although, I can see immigration policies and the traditional conservative policies being attractive since it apparently has the 55th highest largest proportion of citizens without a passport. The citizens of Clancton with tend to als be white British citizens, with still a fairly large Level 4 qualification rate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28964239

_77242461_5d826694-c547-42f1-9ac5-d4f6990446b2.jpg


_77242459_f9bee032-0f91-4926-bcb2-29485c183fd7.jpg


_77242457_74fd478d-c029-465f-b646-1852aa06d054.jpg


_77242341_a4609333-5a15-4f8b-86bd-4bb301ffbb82.jpg
Click to expand...
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Volotaire said:
What is the Survation poll? I have never heard this poll. I might go back a previous page to read through zombqqftw and Crab's debate on the different poll structure and integrity.

But yes, that is an incredible lead if this poll is reliable in its method. Looking at the Clancton demography and socio-economic structure, it seems most residents skewed towards elderly or middle-aged who outright own their properties. What surprises me, if this poll is reliable and reflective of the sentiment, is that most residents have no qualifications in this area, which seems to be slightly at odds with how large political participation seems to be according to this poll. Although I can see immigration policies and the traditional conservative policies being attractive, since it apparently has the 55th highest largest proportion of citizens without a passport, and the citizens of Clancton with tend to be white British citizens, with still a fairly large Level 4 qualification rate.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure about the nuances - I'll leave that to Crab and Zomg - but I'm pretty sure Survation is a "proper" polling company, and sample size was 700, so I'm inclined to take it as reasonably authoritative.
 
V

Volotaire

Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29007855

Conservative MP Chris Kelly has said he will stand down at the 2015 general election after serving one term. In a statement on his website, the Dudley South MP did not give a reason for his decision but said he had been "proud" to serve his constituency. Mr Kelly won the seat from Labour at the 2010 election with a majority of 3,856. He thanked his friends and supporters, as well as "those who have supported my efforts since".

A new Conservative candidate for Dudley South would be announced "in due course", Mr Kelly said.

"I would like to thank all those who have supported me since I was selected for Dudley South in September 2007," his statement said.

"I would especially like to thank all those who voted for me at the general election in May 2010 and all of the friends and supporters who helped me for that election, as well as those who have supported my efforts since.

"I am proud to have served the good people of Dudley South for the past five years."

Writing on Twitter, Mr Kelly's fellow Tory MP, Conor Burns, said he was "very disappointed" at his decision.

"We are losing the wrong people," he added.

When they were students together, Mr Kelly and Justin Tomlinson, also now a Conservative MP, placed bets with William Hill at 10,000/1 that either would become prime minister before 2038. Reacting on Twitter to his friend's announcement Mr Tomlinson said he was "gutted", describing Mr Kelly as an "all-round good chap".
Click to expand...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Anyone have any links for the Clacton tables/methodology, or have they not been published yet?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Volotaire said:
Which tables?
Click to expand...

To be a member of the British Polling Council, companies have to publish various break downs of their data according to sample stratifications and other such stuff. They're referred to as the tables. I was just going to look at the UKIP poll in more depth.
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
This is the key table:

Code: 
GDP annual growth on previous year (percent)		1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
As published on 27 June 2014				3.6%	2.9%	4.4%	2.2%	2.3%	3.9%	3.2%	3.2%	2.8%	3.4%	-0.8%	-5.2%	1.7%	1.1%	0.3%
Near final Blue Book 2014				3.5%	3.2%	3.8%	2.7%	2.5%	4.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	2.6%	-0.3%	-4.3%	1.9%	1.6%	0.7%
Total revision (%)					-0.1%	0.2%	-0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.3%	-0.9%	0.4%	0.9%	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%
Of which:																
ESA 2010						0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Other than ESA 2010					-0.4%	0.0%	-0.7%	0.5%	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.7%	-0.7%	0.1%	-1.1%	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%

ESA 2010 is the European regulation that now forces national accounts to include illegal activities, the Chancellor has used the 2010-2012 revision excluding ESA 2010 on Twitter this morning so I'm guessing that the Treasury see that as the official number and don't want to include illegal activities in the numbers the use.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
zomgbbqftw said:
This is the key table:

Code: 
GDP annual growth on previous year (percent)		1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
As published on 27 June 2014				3.6%	2.9%	4.4%	2.2%	2.3%	3.9%	3.2%	3.2%	2.8%	3.4%	-0.8%	-5.2%	1.7%	1.1%	0.3%
Near final Blue Book 2014				3.5%	3.2%	3.8%	2.7%	2.5%	4.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	2.6%	-0.3%	-4.3%	1.9%	1.6%	0.7%
Total revision (%)					-0.1%	0.2%	-0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.3%	-0.9%	0.4%	0.9%	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%
Of which:																
ESA 2010						0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Other than ESA 2010					-0.4%	0.0%	-0.7%	0.5%	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.7%	-0.7%	0.1%	-1.1%	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%

ESA 2010 is the European regulation that now forces national accounts to include illegal activities, the Chancellor has used the 2010-2012 revision excluding ESA 2010 on Twitter this morning so I'm guessing that the Treasury see that as the official number and don't want to include illegal activities in the numbers the use.
Click to expand...

Could you run me through the logic of including illegal activity in official figures? Is it just to give a measure of "economic activity"? Presumably it's complete guesswork anyway since if criminals were producing receipts we'd go and arrest them...
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
I guess the idea is that if illegal activity isn't counted then the money spent on it effectively disappears into the ether. Accounting for it - and I dunno how they do - is therefore sort of like trying to add in extra money if you suspect there is tax evasion in a certain sector to give a truer representation of the actual gross national product of a country.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
CyclopsRock said:
I guess the idea is that if illegal activity isn't counted then the money spent on it effectively disappears into the ether. Accounting for it - and I dunno how they do - is therefore sort of like trying to add in extra money if you suspect there is tax evasion in a certain sector to give a truer representation of the actual gross national product of a country.
Click to expand...

Well, that the crux of the whole thing isn't it? How does one account for it (I've no idea!)? And if one really can't, isn't it just more sensible to report the numbers we do have, with illegal activity simply borne in mind?

I'm a real economics dummy, but I thought that money does indeed disappear into the ether anyway, in non-illegal ways too. For example, cash spoilage and lost coins. That tenner that you left in your jeans pocket and put in the washing machine is off the table forever, no? Is that taken into account too?

These are probably silly questions but I do wonder.
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
QuicheFontaine said:
Could you run me through the logic of including illegal activity in official figures? Is it just to give a measure of "economic activity"? Presumably it's comlpete guesswork anyway since if criminals were producing receipts we'd go and arrest them...
Click to expand...

I couldn't tell you the logic because I don't know. It is some idiotic EU directive. In a basic sense the economy is measured as it is so the government can apply optimal tax policy for growth and public spending, including something untaxable seems stupid to me.

My guess is that the EU wanted to show larger GDP figures for Southern Europe which tend to have a higher proportion of economic activity illegally.
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
FliXFantatier said:
Let's not pretend the Conservatives are doing this because they desperately want to.
Click to expand...

They have open primaries in a lot of constituencies now. They let their local associations choose candidates, which is why the official central Tory policy on all-women shortlists is "local associations can do what they want".
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
FliXFantatier said:
So the tories seem desperate...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29061300
Click to expand...

I think that is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

Why on earth should people be forced into voting for some put-up party apparatchik rather than have a say first on who gets to stand?

The Conservative party might not (according to your lights) be doing it for the right reasons, but it is the right thing to do.

(Subject of course to the bizzare parliamentary system that we have).
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I think the main reason they don't do it more often for marginal seats they're not sure they'll win anyway is the cost of holding the primaries - Sarah Wollahston's primary cost CCHQ over £40,000. If you did that for all 650 seats, you'd be looking at £26 million, which is totally unsustainable.
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
Crab said:
I think the main reason they don't do it more often for marginal seats they're not sure they'll win anyway is the cost of holding the primaries - Sarah Wollahston's primary cost CCHQ over £40,000. If you did that for all 650 seats, you'd be looking at £26 million, which is totally unsustainable.
Click to expand...

And having candidate selection in the hands of party insiders makes the whip's job much more easier.
 
D

Dambrosi

Banned
Sooooo...nothing about the Tories getting smushed in the Bedroom Tax vote yesterday?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29075300
Liberal Democrat and Labour MPs have joined forces to defeat Conservatives in a Commons vote to partly overturn housing benefit changes.

MPs backed the Affordable Homes Bill at second reading by 306 votes to 231.

Lib Dem MP Andrew George's private member's bill will now move to detailed scrutiny at the committee stage.

The issue has split the coalition, with Lib Dem and Tory MPs and ministers voting along party lines.

Since April 2013, tenants in council and social housing who are deemed to have surplus bedrooms for their needs have seen their housing benefit cut by up to 25% - a key plank in the government's efforts to reduce growth in welfare spending.

Mr George's bill would mean people who could not be found a smaller home would be exempt from the cuts, as well as disabled people who need a spare bedroom or who have adapted homes.

...

After the vote, Conservative MP Philip Davies accused the Lib Dems - who backed the benefit changes when they were initially approved by Parliament - of being "devious and untrustworthy".

He suggested there would now be a "free for all" for the remainder of the Parliament and the coalition government had "officially come to an end".
Click to expand...

A bit hyperbolic at the end there, methinks. The GE is next year, after all. :p
 
W

WayneMorse

Banned
LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Supporters of Scottish independence have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, according to a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper.

With less than two weeks to go before the vote, YouGov said its poll put "Yes" voters on 51 percent, with the unionists on 49 percent, overturning a 22-point lead for the anti-independence "Better Together" campaign in the space of a month. (Reporting by Stephen Addison; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
Click to expand...

holy shit
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Volotaire said:
This could be tight. This will be Cameron's head if the vote goes Yes. I'd like to see some other polls too.
Click to expand...

I don't think Dave will be sticking around that much longer whatever the outcome to be honest.

This poll is significant, but in these types of referendum I think people tend to switch to No in the polling booth. For example, the 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum had loads of polls showing Yes out in front right up until polling day, but No still won (just!) in the end. I hope it doesn't end up that close in Scotland, my nerves couldn't take it!
 
V

Volotaire

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
I don't think Dave will be sticking around that much longer whatever the outcome to be honest.

This poll is significant, but in these types of referendum I think people tend to switch to No in the polling booth. For example, the 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum had loads of polls showing Yes out in front right up until polling day, but No still won (just!) in the end. I hope it doesn't end up that close in Scotland, my nerves couldn't take it!
Click to expand...

Oh that's a certainty for Dave, I agree. Interesting comment about the polls for vote intent for large referendums. But crikey, we're two weeks away from a potential result that could leave the UK in a pre 1600 position.

EDIT: Oh wow, that Quebec result was incredibly tight!
 
Nicktendo86

Nicktendo86

Member
This time two weeks ago the UK splitting was unthinkable for me, for the first time now I feel it might happen. Jesus, I really don't know what will happen. The no campaign has been utterly, utterly terrible. Don't worry though! Brown and the two Ed's are heading up north!

Hope they fucking stay there.
 
V

Volotaire

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
This time two weeks ago the UK splitting was unthinkable for me, for the first time now I feel it might happen. Jesus, I really don't know what will happen. The no campaign has been utterly, utterly terrible. Don't worry though! Brown and the two Ed's are heading up north!

Hope they fucking stay there.
Click to expand...

lol.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Nicktendo86 said:
This time two weeks ago the UK splitting was unthinkable for me, for the first time now I feel it might happen. Jesus, I really don't know what will happen. The no campaign has been utterly, utterly terrible. Don't worry though! Brown and the two Ed's are heading up north!

Hope they fucking stay there.
Click to expand...

scot_milliband_3028101b.jpg


Ok ok, I'm not going to post every time Ed had a weird photo taken of himself (or the thread would be nothing but). This pic just made me say wtf though when I saw it. What's he doing?
 
V

Volotaire

Member
Time for another by-election

Labour MP Jim Dobbin dies aged 73


Labour MP Jim Dobbin has died aged 73, the party has announced.

Mr Dobbin, MP for Heywood and Middleton in Greater Manchester, was on a trip to Poland with a parliamentary committee when he died.

The former microbiologist had served as an MP since 1997, and won with a 5,971 majority at the last election.

Labour leader Ed Miliband said it was a "sad day for Parliament," adding that Mr Dobbin was a "dedicated public servant".

Mr Miliband added: "I will miss Jim's good friendship and decency.

"On behalf of the Labour Party, I offer our sincere condolences to his wife, Pat, and their children. We will all miss him."

Mr Dobbin was in Poland for a Council of Europe trip. His wife Pat is believed to have been with him.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised by the relatively strong BNP support in this constituency.
 
F

fizzelopeguss

Banned
Nicktendo86 said:
This time two weeks ago the UK splitting was unthinkable for me, for the first time now I feel it might happen. Jesus, I really don't know what will happen. The no campaign has been utterly, utterly terrible. Don't worry though! Brown and the two Ed's are heading up north!

Hope they fucking stay there.
Click to expand...

It's say it's pretty typical considering the degenerate, useless, political class we're lumped with. Cameron's off picking a war with russia while his country splits right under his tenure...and all under a shaky coalition government with the lib dems too!
 
N

Napoleonthechimp

Member
The whole thing is going to be such a shit storm if it passes.

The yes campaign rides on the crest of a romantic notion of an independent Scotland whilst completely stonewalling anyone who begins to question how things are actually going to be run.

"Scotland is going to get everything good about the union but none of the bad stuff!"

I can't believe yes voters actually believe that garbage.
 
N

Napoleonthechimp

Member
Dash_ said:
I hope Scotland gain independence. It'll show how depressing conservative England really is.
Click to expand...
What a great idea. We'll spend years carving up the union and fucking everything up but just as long as English people are shown up as being conservative then it'll be all okay in the end.
 
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