War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
The No campaign has been abysmal and extremely negative though. It is no surprise that a positive message is capturing more people's interest (not that I believe or want the yes vote to happen).
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.
- Thread starter Chinner
- Start date
The No campaign has been abysmal and extremely negative though. It is no surprise that a positive message is capturing more people's interest (not that I believe or want the yes vote to happen).
Napoleonthechimp
Member
I got a fair few paragraphs into that before encountering more hyperbolic bullshit. But then again that in itself seems to be what is fuelling the entire yes campaign.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
...you know, it's comments like this that make me thing the Yes campaign might not have such a bad idea after all.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Philip Hammond is available at 33-1 as next PM. Cameron to cease being PM in 2014 is available at 16-1, 8-1 before the election.
Lots of rumblings from Tories that I know that there would be vote of no confidence should Yes prevail, but many also think Cameron may resign as a matter of principle.
Philip Hammond is without a doubt the leading candidate to take over, he neutralises a lot of the UKIP threat, he is working class, not part of the Tory Notting Hill set, he is a self-made millionaire, he has had a highly successful career outside of politics and he has a very, very strong grasp of economics and finance, significantly better than the Chancellor, that's for sure.
Lots of rumblings from Tories that I know that there would be vote of no confidence should Yes prevail, but many also think Cameron may resign as a matter of principle.
Philip Hammond is without a doubt the leading candidate to take over, he neutralises a lot of the UKIP threat, he is working class, not part of the Tory Notting Hill set, he is a self-made millionaire, he has had a highly successful career outside of politics and he has a very, very strong grasp of economics and finance, significantly better than the Chancellor, that's for sure.
WayneMorse
Banned
Switching PMs so soon before the election will be a disaster for the Tories, if Scotland goes independent I'm almost entirely certain there will be no Conservative majority in 2015.
And what's funny is that when Cameron entered No. 10 he probably thought he wouldn't have to give a shit about anything north of London.
And what's funny is that when Cameron entered No. 10 he probably thought he wouldn't have to give a shit about anything north of London.
You know how much I really don't like Cameron, but in this instance I don't see why he'd have to go when Scotland votes Yes. I mean if you take the English voters who oppose the union anyway, add in the voters who are ambivalent... how many frothing-at-the-mouth Unionites are left? Do Tory voters in England really give enough of a shit about what happens in Scotland to remove a man who barely engaged in the campaign?
"Man who lost the Union", aside from being sentimental nonsense is a label best pinned on Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander or even Ed Milliband in a pinch.
"Man who lost the Union", aside from being sentimental nonsense is a label best pinned on Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander or even Ed Milliband in a pinch.
CyclopsRock
Member
This is all true and logical, but ultimately he's a Prime Minister who's the leader of what is technically still called the Conservative and Unionist Party - which obviously referred to Ireland at the time but the case for the union hasn't really changed in the last 100 year, such as it is. When you're a PM that fails to Conserve the Union, that's a pretty big mill stone to wear around your neck.
Edit: Which is to say, it'll be a big problem for him from a party management POV, especially with the a potentially fatal decennial European split coming up.
CyclopsRock
Member
Exactly. In the words of thread-favourite Dan Hodges, "The "No" campaign think the problem with their strategy is Scottish voters haven't seen enough of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg?"
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
But on the other hand, if they do nothing and the YES vote passes they are fucked.
On a complete tangent - I am normally against privatisation of public services, but seriously Royal Mail cannot be privatised fast enough. They are so astonishingly *crap* at what they do, and their attitude towards customers stinks.
(Guess whose copy of Destiny wasn't delivered this morning, and is now held at a sorting office that is only open for a few hours ever morning? Every other courier in existence leaves packages with neighbours but Royal Mail refuse and their sorting offices are so unfriendly to anyone who actually works or wants to get their parcel).
(Guess whose copy of Destiny wasn't delivered this morning, and is now held at a sorting office that is only open for a few hours ever morning? Every other courier in existence leaves packages with neighbours but Royal Mail refuse and their sorting offices are so unfriendly to anyone who actually works or wants to get their parcel).
CyclopsRock
Member
I hate to break it to you my friend, but it already is privatised!
lol. I bet it still haunts Vince Cable to this day. Not as bad as Brown's gold decision though.
I don't mean the current soft touch, government still holds a large stake privatisation. I mean 'sold to Bain Capital and torn apart by packs of wild investment bankers'. Those videos they used in the 2012 elections where a steel maker described building a stage that was used to fire him as 'building my own coffin'?
I want that, but with envelopes instead of a stage.
CyclopsRock
Member
Heh, fair enough. I bought my allotment and ran. In fact, I bought two allotments. SHHH.
CyclopsRock
Member
Tomorrow will be Hague vs Harman! I always get a sort of wet-play vibe from those two, like the adults have left the room and the kids are running riot for half an hour before Mrs Townsend comes back from her lunch and tells everyone to sit in their chairs.
If you think that the tories would ditch their PM because of a yes vote then you are mad. The tories would LOVE a yes vote simply because it would make it very difficult for Labour to win the next election. Also Cameron won't go.
All those scottish labour seats would be gone and if the next election is as close as polls suggest then the loss of those seats could be the difference between a marginal labour government and a hung parliament.
WayneMorse
Banned
That simply isn't true, the only time where Scotland made the difference in an election was 1964 and Feb. 1974, every other Labour majority would've been a majority regardless of Scotland.
I see your point though about it being a killer for Labour in 2015 if the election is neck and neck, but I doubt Cameron would want to be known as the PM who broke apart the union just so that he could win another general election.
Jezbollah
Member
Incorrect:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/scotland-labour-majority-win
"Were it not for Miliband's Scottish MPs, the Tories would have won a majority of 19 at the last election."
On what planet is being the son of a civil engineer working class?
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Born and raised in Essex so maybe lower middle class.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
I don't know about that, but he is somewhat detached from the Eton-types. He's less working class than John Major though.
Not that it is a big issue in any way.
I really hope it's not Hammond - he's a nasty little bigot who isn't comfortable with the social modernisation Cameron has pushed through, and one of four cabinet ministers who abstained from the same sex marriage vote.
In addition, his views on the financial crisis are fairly unpopular and I presume he'll have to backtrack on some of that judging from the Wikipedia comments.
My money is still on May, but to be honest the field is right open currently. I always presumed Osbourne had the good sense not to try for it given his personal reputation and likeability with voters but seems like he definitely wants a shot.
In addition, his views on the financial crisis are fairly unpopular and I presume he'll have to backtrack on some of that judging from the Wikipedia comments.
My money is still on May, but to be honest the field is right open currently. I always presumed Osbourne had the good sense not to try for it given his personal reputation and likeability with voters but seems like he definitely wants a shot.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
With respect, I don't think the Tories can count on your vote whoever the leader is, so it would be silly to try and put in place a leader who would appeal to you anyway.
Hammond will bring purple Tories back into the fold and he has economic credentials well ahead of Cameron and Osborne so he will get business on side very quickly.
As for social conservatism, gay marriage is on the statue book, there's no taking it off so his views are irrelevant and he has consistently opposed Theresa May's creeping police state internally AIUI so he does have time for civil liberties.
He is Harold Macmillan to David Cameron's Anthony Eden. He is relatively unflappable and can deal with a crisis such as the break up of the union would be.
WayneMorse
Banned
Re. My own voting preferences - I'm the model of a rational voter. I voted for each party in the past, including the conservatives, depending on their platforms and how that relates to me so I wouldn't discount that.
On a more interesting note - views on the EU commissioner appointment? Definitely wasn't what I was expecting given all the details and hints beforehand, and seems to be quite a significant peace offering from Juncker to the UK after the disaster over his appointment.
On a more interesting note - views on the EU commissioner appointment? Definitely wasn't what I was expecting given all the details and hints beforehand, and seems to be quite a significant peace offering from Juncker to the UK after the disaster over his appointment.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Quite the reverse, it is a double-edged poisoned chalice. Who better than a Conservative Brit to lead the EU attack on London as a financial centre, eh?
Call me cynical.
WayneMorse
Banned
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-poll-shows-swing-to-no
No vote has regained traction and now has a six point lead.
No vote has regained traction and now has a six point lead.
It's one poll, I would be very cautious of taking it as a sign of halting momentum. I also think that the effects of the last couple of days will have an impact on the voting, particularly the economic shocks, and that won't yet be reflected in polls either.
Positive news for those folks invested in the union though.
Positive news for those folks invested in the union though.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Bollocks. It is only positive news for people who need to spin the story along, like newspapers and TV stations and so on.
The vote is more-or-less done and dusted by now. But we won't know what it is for a WHOLE WEEK, so they need something to write about.
WayneMorse
Banned
I think he's saying people have pretty much made up there minds now and that there isn't many undecideds to win over.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
That;'s exactly what I'm saying. People have pretty well made their minds up how to vote (but are not necessarily telling the pollsters the truth about it).
EDIT: Seriously, on a big thing like independence, you're not going to be hanging around for the last few soundbites from politicians - you know where your vote is going (or at least you know your head is going one way and your heart another, but neither is going to be swayed by Cameron/Miliband/Clegg/Salmond/Brown/Darling because it is bigger than that).
TBH the No has always had a lead of about 6 to 10 points and it's been like it for a long time. The only reason Westminster and the media shat themselves was because of one youguv poll.
CyclopsRock
Member
In other news...
YouGov/Sun poll CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%
Yikes at those last two...
YouGov/Sun poll CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%
Yikes at those last two...
Why is this even news? I feel sorry for the candidates putting themselves against Boris.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29173705?ocid=socialflow_twitter
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29173705?ocid=socialflow_twitter
It's how party politics works. None of them will be under the illusion they might win, but they will get a platform to speak and that will help them next time a seat comes up.
A lot of MPs have to go through that stage before being selected and winning, and lots go through a similar process as local councillors as well. The current model where SPADs from Oxbridge get parachuted straight into guaranteed seats with no competition and the end up in cabinet two years later is very untypical.
A lot of MPs have to go through that stage before being selected and winning, and lots go through a similar process as local councillors as well. The current model where SPADs from Oxbridge get parachuted straight into guaranteed seats with no competition and the end up in cabinet two years later is very untypical.
WayneMorse
Banned
New Survation poll shows an eight point lead for the No vote and new Opinium poll shows Labour with an eight point lead.
CyclopsRock
Member
Let's do the time warp again!
JonathanEx
Member
Not him personally but from his new publication - http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/scotland-independence-referendum/
WayneMorse
Banned
A video of British national David Haines being beheaded by ISIS was just released.
Interesting to see Dave's reaction to this, especially considering the executioner is most likely a British national.
Interesting to see Dave's reaction to this, especially considering the executioner is most likely a British national.
APZonerunner
Member
It's truly a bizarre thing to think that the guy who is doing these awful executions was in this country for and quite possibly even voted in the last election. Jeez.
WayneMorse
Banned
ISIS is the ultimate monument to the failure of Tony Blair, without Iraq, and the marginalisation of Muslims after 9/11 this probably could've been avoided.
Napoleonthechimp
Member
I can't deal with the Scottish referendum thread anymore. I just can't let go of the outright anger I feel towards all of those bullshit promises Salmond is making that come at the UK's expense.
I genuinely fear I'm going to do something completely dumb in the next general election like vote for UKIP or whichever party that would end up as hardline as possible when it comes to this issue.
I genuinely fear I'm going to do something completely dumb in the next general election like vote for UKIP or whichever party that would end up as hardline as possible when it comes to this issue.
Nate Silver's predictions for US elections are so spot on because he has access to much more reliable polling than exists over here sadly.
Plus US elections are easier to predict anyway because the individual units are so big. You just need to assign probabilities to how the 5 or so battleground states will swing, which is a lot easier than figuring out how loads of tiny constituencies over here will go. And i guess referendums are even harder because there's no blocks you can break it down to at all.
Please keep posting, it's amusing me no end.