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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

kmag

Member
ITV/ComRes poll of 40 most marginal Conservative/Labour seats out last night.

LAB 41
CON 30
UKIP 17
LD 6
OTH 6

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1274/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll.htm

The post election Tory leadership battle should be hilarious. Like potentially party splitting.

Ashcroft basically backs the Comres poll with his own polling

In the polling I have done so far, the only gains that currently look likely for the Conservatives would come from the Liberal Democrats. So far I have found eight Lib Dem seats where the Conservatives are ahead. Unfortunately I have also found eight seats which, on current polling, the Lib Dems would lose to Labour.

That leaves no current net advantage to the Tories on the Lib Dem battleground. And to make matters worse, my research has found the Conservatives currently on course to lose two seats to UKIP.

If that situation persists, according to our formula, the Conservatives can afford to lose no more than 22 seats to Labour before they cease to be the largest party in the House of Commons.

Unfortunately, the polling I have already done in individual seats, starting with the most marginal, shows the Tories already behind in 24. This includes Brighton Kemptown, Enfield North and Hastings & Rye, three of the more defensive Conservative seats I am looking at in the round of research which is currently in the field. And the current national polls, as well as the overall swings in the Conservative-Labour battleground I have found so far, suggests the number of losses could extend to the point where Labour have a comfortable working majority.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
So Gideon's big push is going to be a cut in inheritance tax and a massive cut in welfare but not to pensions who instead get a massive tax cut. Talk about pandering to your existing support.

The Tories have no chance of a majority at the next election. A veer to the right isn't going to get them additional support, it might slow down the bleeding to UKIP but I fail to see how it gets them above their 2010 high water mark. Hung parliament here we come.

The Tories in a nutshell; happily gutting protections for the poorest in society so they can feather their own nests and that of their families with large tax cuts on the inheritance of capital. It's not like we already live in one of the most inequitable Western societies or anything like that. Lets put more folk on the street so Tarquin's estate doesn't have to pay so much tax when he snuffs it, and his mewling brats can get even more of a leg up.

Yes, it is very politically narrow-minded. This is Lynton Crosby at work - he focuses on the very core voters and directly targets them with a very focused message. It is a cowardly idea, but also something that makes sense. With the party as fractious as it is, a more moderate move would be very difficult (and doesn't help with UKIP) while a right-ward shift limits potential growth and I'm not sure they can realistically compete with UKIP without undermining the benefits of being a governing party.

It is a difficult position and I think it is really too late. The Tories' best chance is that they've been in government and shown they aren't a disaster and that their rivals are unproven, unpopular or in a bad state.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Polling numbers right now dont tell a story, IMO. If EVFEL spirals into Labour getting in the way of devolved powers to both Scotland and Wales, shit will hit the fan with the red voters in those countries big time.
 
I'm really, really excited about this campaign. There are so many variables that basically haven't existed before, or at least not all together. Coalition government = Labour having a monopoly on opposition of the major parties, UKIP = a rare external split on the right (as opposed to internal party split), the backdrop of an economic recovery from the largest recession in 80 years etc. It's a good time to be a political fan!
 

Maledict

Member
Polling numbers right now dont tell a story, IMO. If EVFEL spirals into Labour getting in the way of devolved powers to both Scotland and Wales, shit will hit the fan with the red voters in those countries big time.

Honestly, I don't see this as a wining issue. It reminds me of the west wing episode about a flag burning amendment - yes a lot of people care about it, but it won't make a lot of people change their votes. In terms of Scotland, both parties have said the issue of further devolved powers for Scotland won't be held up by the constitutional issue of England.

If I were labour, I'd be more worried about the SNP encroachment into Glasgow and their block voting base in Scotland full stop rather than the devolution stuff. Once people break the habit of a lifetime in voting for one party, it's very unlikely they'll go back.

But national polls don't tell a useful story anyway - the libs will almost certainly have more seats than UKIP after the next election despite the current poll numbers, because they have a good ground game and their numbers hold up better in their own seats. They will absolutely lose a lot of MPs (and wouldn't surprise me if Clegg in particular lost), but it's more likely to be them than UKIP holding the balance of power.
 

kmag

Member
Polling numbers right now dont tell a story, IMO. If EVFEL spirals into Labour getting in the way of devolved powers to both Scotland and Wales, shit will hit the fan with the red voters in those countries big time.

That really doesn't matter. It might stop Labour from getting an outright majority or becoming the largest party but Wales or Scotland aren't magically going to blue from Red. It ain't magically getting the Tories a proper majority. At best they're looking at a hard road to just get back to their 2010 watermark (both in numbers of seats and vote share).

They might end up in power, but it'll either be by minority rule or in another coalition. Cameron would not survive either state, and they'll rip themselves apart with a leadership contest especially if UKIP do well.
 
If I were labour, I'd be more worried about the SNP encroachment into Glasgow and their block voting base in Scotland full stop rather than the devolution stuff. Once people break the habit of a lifetime in voting for one party, it's very unlikely they'll go back.

But the SNP have always done significantly better in the Scottish Parliament elections than in the General Elections - much like UKIP and the EUP vs Westminster. A lot of people who voted for Labour in 2010 had probably voted for the SNP before.

That said, I think the SNP will do better this time, but I'm not sure it's because they've finally broken free of their voting habits.
 
That really doesn't matter. It might stop Labour from getting an outright majority or becoming the largest party but Wales or Scotland aren't magically going to blue from Red. It ain't magically getting the Tories a proper majority. At best they're looking at a hard road to just get back to their 2010 watermark (both in numbers of seats and vote share).

They might end up in power, but it'll either be by minority rule or in another coalition. Cameron would not survive either state, and they'll rip themselves apart with a leadership contest especially if UKIP do well.

Depending on what happens with EV4EL, though, he might not need a "proper majority" in order to govern, at least in England. That's what makes this such a hard issue for Labour - I don't believe for a second that the two issues aren't bound up, because I don't think it'll be politically possible to grant more power to Scotland without first reforming EV4EL, or at the very least having a clear framework for how you're going to do it. I think that, before a month ago, a lot of British voters simply didn't know about the West Lothian Question; they do now.
 

kmag

Member
Depending on what happens with EV4EL, though, he might not need a "proper majority" in order to govern, at least in England. That's what makes this such a hard issue for Labour - I don't believe for a second that the two issues aren't bound up, because I don't think it'll be politically possible to grant more power to Scotland without first reforming EV4EL, or at the very least having a clear framework for how you're going to do it. I think that, before a month ago, a lot of British voters simply didn't know about the West Lothian Question; they do now.

Cameron won't be Tory leader without a clear election win, even if he ends up defacto English PM, because whatever bodge either side puts out Scottish/Welsh/NI MP's still get a say on who the Government of the UK is. Cameron needs to actually win an election.

Frankly the country is heading towards a constitutional crisis. There's a very real possibility there will be a EV4EL bodge which could leave a Labour UK 'Government' but a English Tory majority which will frankly make the country ungovernable without radical change to the Executive, and there's not enough time for that before May.
 
Cameron won't be Tory leader without a clear election win, even if he ends up defacto English PM, because whatever bodge either side puts out Scottish/Welsh/NI MP's still get a say on who the Government of the UK is. Cameron needs to actually win an election.

Frankly the country is heading towards a constitutional crisis. There's a very real possibility there will be a EV4EL bodge which could leave a Labour UK 'Government' but a English Tory majority which will frankly make the country ungovernable without radical change to the Executive, and there's not enough time for that before May.

Nah, I don't think Cameron will be shot in the back of the head in the event that he's capable of making a coalition or otherwise being PM, not until the EU referendum bill is passed. Then, either before or after the referendum, he'll go, but it just makes no sense for the Tories to decapitate themselves immediately after an election like that. If he ends up "losing" and we get Ed (even if he relies on a coalition too), then yeah, of course he'll go then.

And I guess that depends on what you mean by "bodge", really.
 

kmag

Member
Nah, I don't think Cameron will be shot in the back of the head in the event that he's capable of making a coalition or otherwise being PM, not until the EU referendum bill is passed. Then, either before or after the referendum, he'll go, but it just makes no sense for the Tories to decapitate themselves immediately after an election like that. If he ends up "losing" and we get Ed (even if he relies on a coalition too), then yeah, of course he'll go then.

And I guess that depends on what you mean by "bodge", really.

Cameron couldn't win the biggest shoo in election ever and his largely hated by his backbenchers. There's a story in the Torygraph today about how he's not well liked to say the least

All too often, Tory MPs feel that Mr Cameron has left them lonely on the dance floor and that his attempts to sweet-talk them back lack sincerity. Mr Reckless’s defection simply carried their distrust to an extreme. Downing Street protests that this is unfair, and that no modern Conservative leader has done more to keep his colleagues in touch. But many MPs are simply unconvinced. There is a long history of bad blood, running from the candidates’ A-list project through last summer’s Syrian debacle all the way to the Scottish referendum. “I didn’t know how much the Prime Minister was hated on the back-benches till I left the Government,” one former minister told me.

Cabinet members out of the loop, a tiny leadership clique – the complaints are familiar. What is less certain is what Mr Cameron can now do about them. He is unlikely to persuade his party this week that Downing Street will no longer be run “like a branch of lastminute.com”, in the words of a Conservative back-bencher. What he can do, perhaps, is show that last week’s Chequers summit with Tory MPs on the constitution heralded a change – that his election campaign will be based on real, structured, formal teamwork with his Cabinet colleagues, ministers, MPs and party members.

He'll not survive not winning. As long as all potential leaders are in favour of the referendum (and they'll not be a potential leader if they don't) Cameron being there or not doesn't make a jot of difference.

A bodge is anything which makes the current House of Commons both the UK parliament and the English one. That is completely unworkable.
 
Cameron couldn't win the biggest shoo in election ever and his largely hated by his backbenchers. There's a story in the Torygraph today about how he's not well liked to say the least

He'll not survive not winning. As long as all potential leaders are in favour of the referendum (and they'll not be a potential leader if they don't) Cameron being there or not doesn't make a jot of difference.

A bodge is anything which makes the current House of Commons both the UK parliament and the English one. That is completely unworkable.

Of course it does! Unless we aren't talking about the same thing here. It doesn't matter if their potential leaders are in favour of a referendum if they don't control a sufficient majority to pass legislation doing it, and that's exactly what'll happen if they have a coalition possibility but they scalp Cameron.

Let's say we get a situation with seat shares exactly as per 2010 - Clegg's a kingmaker and he has to choose between Ed and Dave. In that scenario, there's not a cat's chance in hell, I think, that the Backbenchers will choose that moment to act and scalp Cam, because they know that if they do they'll essentially be making Clegg's mind up for him - he's gotten a large enough bucket of shit poured over his head for being the Conservative's feeder as it is, let alone if his actions end up making a PM of someone who most of the country wouldn't have heard of until the day they wake up and find he's representing them at the UN, wasn't in the debates etc. Let's say Cameron is scalped and Boris or May or Gove replaces him - Clegg would run to Ed in a heartbeat. That's not in any Tory backbencher's interests to see, especially if they have a particular interest in an EU referendum. In fact, heading off this scenario is exactly why Cam has all but said that he'll quit after an EU referendum - to placade the naughty back benches into behaving because he's their only chance at a referendum and that they won't have to "put up" with him for more than a few years.
 

kmag

Member
Of course it does! Unless we aren't talking about the same thing here. It doesn't matter if their potential leaders are in favour of a referendum if they don't control a sufficient majority to pass legislation doing it, and that's exactly what'll happen if they have a coalition possibility but they scalp Cameron.

Let's say we get a situation with seat shares exactly as per 2010 - Clegg's a kingmaker and he has to choose between Ed and Dave. In that scenario, there's not a cat's chance in hell, I think, that the Backbenchers will choose that moment to act and scalp Cam, because they know that if they do they'll essentially be making Clegg's mind up for him - he's gotten a large enough bucket of shit poured over his head for being the Conservative's feeder as it is, let alone if his actions end up making a PM of someone who most of the country wouldn't have heard of until the day they wake up and find he's representing them at the UN, wasn't in the debates etc. Let's say Cameron is scalped and Boris or May or Gove replaces him - Clegg would run to Ed in a heartbeat. That's not in any Tory backbencher's interests to see, especially if they have a particular interest in an EU referendum. In fact, heading off this scenario is exactly why Cam has all but said that he'll quit after an EU referendum - to placade the naughty back benches into behaving because he's their only chance at a referendum and that they won't have to "put up" with him for more than a few years.

Clegg almost certainly won't be in charge of the Lib Dems post election so that calculation is out the window. Cameron needs to win, he can't win he's not getting to hang around, the Tories are far too fractured for that.
 

Maledict

Member
Cameron couldn't win the biggest shoo in election ever and his largely hated by his backbenchers. There's a story in the Torygraph today about how he's not well liked to say the least

A bodge is anything which makes the current House of Commons both the UK parliament and the English one. That is completely unworkable.

I disagree - in fact I feel exactly the opposite. an English parliament will be a bodge, that will result in the union ending. Both the back bench committee which looked at the issue, and other political followers, have suggested a number of ways in which we can help resolve the issue without setting up an English parliament. Non-English Mps being unable to add amendments at committee stage, for example - or English only bills requiring both a majority or MPs and a majority of English MPs is another (as the economist recommended this week).

re. Cameron being hated - to be fair to the guy, that's partly due to his dreadful management technique but also partly due to his party containing an number of *batshit insane* people. The Tories have never understood that they didn't "win" in 2010, and the resulting political coalition was the only way for them to get in. The notion that Cameron is somehow a "wet" is on the face of it nonsense - his euro-sceptic pandering actions have cost us influence in Europe after vetoing the treaty, which neither Major nor Thatcher did. his latest cabinet is stacked full of euro-sceptics, and he removed every positive Europe Tory from cabinet.

Ultimately, the Tory party still hasn't rid itself of the horrendous fever that the 90s put onto them. The latest wave of intakes is even more obsessed than before. It's really not healthy.
 
Clegg won't be in charge of the Lib Dems so that calculation is out the window.

Perhaps, perhaps not. But the LD's have a pretty insano leadership process that the formation of a government couldn't wait for. I don't even know who would be temporary leader in the event of his stepping aside, because their current deputy leader of the party isn't running for re-election in 2015 (and that's who took over when Ming resigned until Clegg won the hustings) and the President, Tim Farron (who I think might win a future leadership election), is a different sort of position entirely, akin to Grant Shapps taking over if Cam got scalped. The Lib Dems are nothing if not process-observant so whilst I suspect Clegg would be gone soon, I have to imagine he's end up going after any sort of coalition agreements, lest we end up with the Ed Miliband's Deputy PM being the Lib Dem Youth leader or something.

(As for "the calculation being out of the window", it's not demonstrably different for the Lib Dems if it's someone other than Clegg, all things considered).
 

kmag

Member
I disagree - in fact I feel exactly the opposite. an English parliament will be a bodge, that will result in the union ending. Both the back bench committee which looked at the issue, and other political followers, have suggested a number of ways in which we can help resolve the issue without setting up an English parliament. Non-English Mps being unable to add amendments at committee stage, for example - or English only bills requiring both a majority or MPs and a majority of English MPs is another (as the economist recommended this week).

re. Cameron being hated - to be fair to the guy, that's partly due to his dreadful management technique but also partly due to his party containing an number of *batshit insane* people. The Tories have never understood that they didn't "win" in 2010, and the resulting political coalition was the only way for them to get in. The notion that Cameron is somehow a "wet" is on the face of it nonsense - his euro-sceptic pandering actions have cost us influence in Europe after vetoing the treaty, which neither Major nor Thatcher did. his latest cabinet is stacked full of euro-sceptics, and he removed every positive Europe Tory from cabinet.

Ultimately, the Tory party still hasn't rid itself of the horrendous fever that the 90s put onto them. The latest wave of intakes is even more obsessed than before. It's really not healthy.

Neither suggestion actually resolves the EV4EL question, and still doesn't really answer the issue of the national executive being raised from what would be fundamentally a defacto regional parliament for 80% of it's business. You'd have next to no chance of a non English PM under any model which keeps the HOC as a de facto English parliament with second class non-English MP's.
 

pulsemyne

Member
Well thats a nice Tory pledge for the next election, freezing peoples benefits for two years so that their cost of living becomes even more expensive. What a startling bunch of cunts they are proving themselves to be. Sorry for the language but that really is another attack on the poorest in society. It disgusts me.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Well thats a nice Tory pledge for the next election, freezing peoples benefits for two years so that their cost of living becomes even more expensive. What a startling bunch of cunts they are proving themselves to be. Sorry for the language but that really is another attack on the poorest in society. It disgusts me.

At least they're addressing the subject of the deficit

Labour seem happy to make bold claims on what they'll do without actually explaining how they'll pay for it..
 

Maledict

Member
Neither suggestion actually resolves the EV4EL question, and still doesn't really answer the issue of the national executive being raised from what would be fundamentally a defacto regional parliament for 80% of it's business. You'd have next to no chance of a non English PM under any model which keeps the HOC as a de facto English parliament with second class non-English MP's.

There isn't a solution to the EV4Ek (I hate that acronym) that isn't either a modification of the existing parliament, or the establishment of an English parliament and the breakup of the union. England is far, far too large to work as part of a federalised state - it would like creating a USA out of the Dakotas, Wyoming and California.

Ultimately, it's part of the price we pay for the union as far as I'm concerned. I think a modification of existing parliament would be a better solution than creating another tier of politicians.

It's also a hugely overblown issue - Blair had to use Scottish MP votes twice in his entire tenure to pass legislation, it simply does not crop up as much as you would think because England's higher population results in so many more MPs.
 

Maledict

Member
At least they're addressing the subject of the deficit

Labour seem happy to make bold claims on what they'll do without actually explaining how they'll pay for it..

If the Tories were serious about tackling the deficit they would not be handing away millions *more* in pledges to the older vote. The imbalance we are creating currently is mad and deeply unfair to younger people.

The conservatives only seem to want to tackle the deficit when it involves benefits for people who 'aren't one of us'.
 
There isn't a solution to the EV4Ek (I hate that acronym) that isn't either a modification of the existing parliament, or the establishment of an English parliament and the breakup of the union. England is far, far too large to work as part of a federalised state - it would like creating a USA out of the Dakotas, Wyoming and California.

Ultimately, it's part of the price we pay for the union as far as I'm concerned. I think a modification of existing parliament would be a better solution than creating another tier of politicians.

It's also a hugely overblown issue - Blair had to use Scottish MP votes twice in his entire tenure to pass legislation, it simply does not crop up as much as you would think because England's higher population results in so many more MPs.

But surely the worry is that the more powers offered (and given) to Scotland, the more often it'll happen because the parts that remain England-only increase and increase until there's scant left that applies to the whole UK, yet we have a chamber with about 60 Scottish MPs. Furthermore, it seems likely that devolution isn't going to reverse in Wales or NI even if the thirst isn't quite as strong as in Scotland, so I see this as a long term problem that isn't going to go away.
 

kmag

Member
At least they're addressing the subject of the deficit

Labour seem happy to make bold claims on what they'll do without actually explaining how they'll pay for it..

They've just given a massive tax sop to the wealthy, and failed to do anything to tackle the majority of welfare spending (I'm not exactly proposing hammering pensioners but they've not had any cuts at all). The Tories are completely illiterate on the subject of social security, they continue to target the same pool of claimants over and over again with diminishing returns while ignoring the main bulk of welfare spending.

That's why they've only managed to announce £3 billion of the £12 billion they want to save from the benefits system. The major part of the benefits system is pensions, and they're unwilling and incapable of touching them for purely party political reasons.
 
They've just given a massive tax sop to the wealthy, and failed to do anything to tackle the majority of welfare spending (I'm not exactly proposing hammering pensioners but they've not had any cuts at all). The Tories are completely illiterate on the subject of social security, they continue to target the same pool of claimants over and over again with diminishing returns while ignoring the main bulk of welfare spending.

That's why they've only managed to announce £3 billion of the £12 billion they want to save from the benefits system. The major part of the benefits system is pensions, and they're unwilling and incapable of touching them for purely party political reasons.

I agree entirely that they need to tackle pensions, but I wouldn't say it's entirely party political reasons - pensions are always hard to maul because typically the people who would lose out the most - those about to, or currently receiving their pension - are the ones who can do the least to deal with the changes. For example, I'm 26 - if I found out tomorrow that they plan to cut the state pension in half tomorrow, that's "OK" because I have a good 40+ years in which to plan for my retirement. For the actual pensioners now, they don't - they have retired with an expectation of X, and would now be receiving X/2. Not only that but they paid in their NI their whole lives (or perhaps not, but at least the state pension is partially based on contributions directly, unlike basically everything else).

Like I said, I agree that they need to be cut, but the Tories aren't the only ones who don't reform it; It's because any reforms would need to be so far in the distance that they could a) be overturned with relative ease and b) will never get credit for the good they do because the savings are back loaded.
 

kmag

Member
I agree entirely that they need to tackle pensions, but I wouldn't say it's entirely party political reasons - pensions are always hard to maul because typically the people who would lose out the most - those about to, or currently receiving their pension - are the ones who can do the least to deal with the changes. For example, I'm 26 - if I found out tomorrow that they plan to cut the state pension in half tomorrow, that's "OK" because I have a good 40+ years in which to plan for my retirement. For the actual pensioners now, they don't - they have retired with an expectation of X, and would now be receiving X/2. Not only that but they paid in their NI their whole lives (or perhaps not, but at least the state pension is partially based on contributions directly, unlike basically everything else).

Like I said, I agree that they need to be cut, but the Tories aren't the only ones who don't reform it; It's because any reforms would need to be so far in the distance that they could a) be overturned with relative ease and b) will never get credit for the good they do because the savings are back loaded.

They don't need to make massive changes, a freeze in the SPP for two years would save about double what their announced freeze today did. While I appreciate pensioners can't easily adapt to such changes, neither can certain types of disabled people and it hasn't stopped the Tories overhauling that system. That they don't is party political, they simply don't want to piss off that demo, but the poorest working age folk and the poorest 18-24 year olds are both the least likely to vote and the least likely to vote Tory so they're fair game. Fair enough, but people shouldn't be dressing it up as a serious attempt to fix the deficit.

Meanwhile, it seems Gideon's main priority is announcing a system which allows rich folk to park up to £1.25 million in a pension before handing it down to avoid inheritance tax. Which is a complete sop to the cash rich (and note it's not even applicable to usual 'death tax' sob story: the gran or mother with the house over £325,000, it's a sop to rich folk with liquidity who can park money in a pension an now pay no or marginal tax on it)
 
So why exactly is this country following the path of austerity then?

Would've thought that is obvious. The less you spend on the poor and the country the more you can give to the rich (and dead) in tax cuts. That's what the tories have always been about.

I haven't bothered to see any of the Tory conference myself. Their message of "if you are poor just fucking die already" is already loud enough without watching a bunch of red faced (due to hypertension) cretins banging on.
 
So why exactly is this country following the path of austerity then?

Neolib lies.

In reality, mostly to destroy the middle class, diminish the value of the working class and eventually turn the UK back into an aristocratic society with no social safety and squalid inhuman poverty.

Like in other parts of the English speaking world, the political centre is gravitating to a conservative, corporatist and authoritarian right. Not a very good time to be alive, especially if you're young.
 

pulsemyne

Member
So the UK isnt really £1.3tn in debt then?

There are lots of different kind of debt for one thing. For one thing we haven't paid any debt off at all, infact we have been adding more debt to the country only at a slightly reduced rate. There's also the difference between internal debt and external debt. An example of this is Japan, Japan has the highest debt to GDP in the entire world (about 200 percent) but japan isn't bankrupt or in big financial trouble due to that being a large amount of internal debt.
You can band about 1.3 trillion but our GDP/debt is about 90 percent which is about the same as Frances, a roughly similar sized economy. It also seems both countries will follow a similar pattern for debt reduction amounts (Uk to 84 percent and france to 87 percent by 2019).
Freezing peoples benefits for two years will not make a jot of difference to bring down the deficit. It's only 3 billion over 2 years. It sounds like a lot but when you consider the sheer amount of money lost through Tax evasion/avoidance then it looks to be little. There's also the fact that the government could fund the benefits by a whole raft of means it has at it's disposal that wouldn't effect the average working man.
If you really want to pay off the billions in debt then the only way to do it is by growing an economy. You have to spend money to make money.
 
Isn't it more likely that the answer is somewhere between "neolib lies" and "the debt will kill us all"?

It's not unimportant. The debt, I mean. As it stands, we don't just turn on the printing press so when we spend more than we raise, we end up paying interest. Right now, we pay more interest a year than we spend on all the schools in the country. If we were to simply print it a la MMT thanks to the BoE, we'd just hit another barrier, one of inflation. Not only is that obviously troublesome for everyone, but you have to look at the 97-2010 period when our public spending went up quite a lot and ask if the negative impact of inflation (for example, on the cost of living) will be less than the benefits to the poorest of whatever the government spending goes on. Of course no one can say for sure where that inflationary barrier might be, but it simply dreamland to assume that the value of goods represented by a currency goes up without inflation occuring as a result. It just then comes down to how much inflation you're willing to put up with.

However, I think too many on the right are lazy and simply use "the deficit" as an excuse to cut, because making actual arguments in favour of cutting state spending is a lot harder (which isn't to say it's wrong - I don't think it is, natch). It's a bit of a nebulous concept about who gains when you cut something, whether it's a civil servant job or a scarcely used bus route. It's immediately obvious who loses out, though, which makes them hard arguments to make. But there are problems to misused state spending - far more than can be neatly spit into one post, but to name a few, there are problems when specific areas become disproportionately reliant on government spending, there are problems when the state enters other-wise market-based industries and distorts them, there are problems when you have overstaffed areas of government (whether they are cabinet offices or local governments) etc. But the nature of public spending is such that everyone takes the burden whilst only a few get the benefit, and therefore when you go the other way, a few take a disproportionate amount of the pain. That doesn't immediately invalidate the decisions, but it's hard to describe in a succinct way. So they go on about the deficit as a proxy, which is disappointing but understandable.

In other news, Hannan outright promised he wasn't defecting to Andrew Neil on TV earlier.

Edit: I'd also point out that all the deficit targets are about the cyclical debt, not the absolute debt - ie, things like infrastructure spending aren't taken into account when talking about cutting the deficit down to X or whatever. As such, if there's a reason why the Tories don't want to build 200,000 houses, I don't think it's a desire to keep the deficit down.
 

Maledict

Member
From my understanding the Tories are talking about absolute debt - that's the difference between them and labour, they want a surplus on every aspect of government debt. Which is utterly insane but there you go - it clearly works as a scare tactic as we have folks in here worried about the overall debt level despite the lessons of the last few years.

On another note, Cameron wants schools to prioritise imperial measurements over metric. I didn't realise this was a big Tory thing until I had an argument with my father about it on holiday, but it honestly think this is one of the most stupid and pandering comments I've ever heard in politics.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I just want to know what Labour is going to do with our economy. The deficit IS important - especially with regards to our credit rating. Giving the Tories stick about what they have announced, regardless of if its something people agree with or not is more than the Opposition has done.

It's important to me. A party who will end up borrowing to spend to fuel their policies won't get my vote.
 
From my understanding the Tories are talking about absolute debt - that's the difference between them and labour, they want a surplus on every aspect of government debt. Which is utterly insane but there you go - it clearly works as a scare tactic as we have folks in here worried about the overall debt level despite the lessons of the last few years.

On another note, Cameron wants schools to prioritise imperial measurements over metric. I didn't realise this was a big Tory thing until I had an argument with my father about it on holiday, but it honestly think this is one of the most stupid and pandering comments I've ever heard in politics.

Do you have a source for that? I've literally never heard that before.
 

kmag

Member
I just want to know what Labour is going to do with our economy. The deficit IS important - especially with regards to our credit rating. Giving the Tories stick about what they have announced, regardless of if its something people agree with or not is more than the Opposition has done.

It's important to me. A party who will end up borrowing to spend to fuel their policies won't get my vote.

You're going to have a hard time voting then.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
I just want to know what Labour is going to do with our economy. The deficit IS important - especially with regards to our credit rating. Giving the Tories stick about what they have announced, regardless of if its something people agree with or not is more than the Opposition has done.

It's important to me. A party who will end up borrowing to spend to fuel their policies won't get my vote.

So you aren't voting for the Tories then? ;)

Labour aren't going to be much different that the Conservatives, they have and will promise to keep in line with most cuts, a la Osborne in 2008.
 
So while the line people seem to talk about is that it's Labour that need to be scared of UKIP taking their voters, but forget voters, the Conservatives just keep losing people...

Boris Johnson’s former right-hand man at City Hall today announced he has ditched his Tory membership to instead join Ukip.

Former Deputy Mayor of London Richard Barnes told the Standard that the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems did not “speak the language of normal people”.

He argued Ukip was the only party with the right answers on leaving the EU, sorting out immigration and taking a strong position on HS2 and Heathrow expansion.

The news came as his old boss Mr Johnson prepared to speak at conference, rallying troops who are nervous after two Conservative MPs already defected to Ukip.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...ors-former-righthand-man-defects-9763938.html

Not an MP, but a bit of a blow. Or should I say, bit of a knob. Wait no that's just his Facebook pictures.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Living standards may be rising at last, as ONS says real household disposable income rose 2.2% in 2nd quarter of 2014

(From Robert Peston)
 
5.2% BoP deficit. Horrible. Weak GBP is not having the desired effect. We must give more incentives for business to invest in production, manufacturing and fracking for export. The government will have to fix the BoP deficit sooner or later, 5.2% is just unsustainable, money is pouring out of the country at an astounding rate.
 

kmag

Member
Chris Grayling's speech on the Human Rights Act at the tory conference was appalling. Half an hour of absolutely no substance other than vague hints it was bad (with no reasons given) and hints it was going to be scrapped (again no reasons given).

There's a vague feeling of unease with the Human Rights Act, chiefly among arseholes, the ignorant, or both of the above.

This has been an absolute stone-cold classic tory conference. Tax cuts for people with money, benefit cuts for people without it, threats to enshrined rights designed to protect the people from the government, and RAF jets flying sorties over the baddies. Oh and we've made the GP surgery a bit quieter for you on Wednesday mornings, Mrs Davis-Canterbury.
 
It is astonishing to me that the tories are using this as the platform for their reelection. Cutting costs and saving pennies as a way of winning the hearts and minds of the electorate is a big ask.

It seems to me that the tories are so insular that they've become completely unable to see any bloody sense.
 
It strikes me that if they actually want to win the general election they would go with perhaps more popular policies than ones that feed the narrative that the Tories hate the needy.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I feel like this wasn't want Cameron or Osborne wanted to do. As much as I dislike them, they've usually been relatively astute at trying to keep the Conservative Party away from the 'nasty party' image comparative to say Hague or Howard. This seems quite uncharacteristic of them, and I think their hand has been forced towards a 'placate the hardliners' strategy in view of Reckless and Carswell and the prospect of future defections. It certainly wasn't the conference of a party looking to press home an election advantage. I don't think the Conservative backbenchers realise how precarious a situation they are in; they didn't even get a majority in 2010 given one of the least liked government administrations of all time and an extended period of detoxification aimed at expanding their voter base. Despite that, they're now desperately trying to row backwards away from the centre towards UKIP, and that just doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Even if they do manage to stem some of the bleeding from their right wing, it seems strongly unlikely that the Liberal Democrats will want to work with a party that has moved even further to the right than 2010, and with 5 years of strained relations behind them; and UKIP simply aren't going to have the MP numbers to be king-makers. The Conservatives just feel like they're devouring themselves from the inside out. Not that I'm complaining mind, it's a lovely sight to see as someone who'd prefer Labour.
 
The last time around I voted the Liberal Democrats due to a number of their policies (mostly constitutional reform and no tuition fees). It is tempting to damn them for breaking them all, but I'm leaning more towards never forgiving the tories for blocking any reforms that would've come from the Lib Dems. But I'm registered in a tory safe seat (a bunch of villages inhabited by plenty of older middle class types) so what I think will always be irrelevant during general elections.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm seeing a lot of buzz about the conference on social media, and it's not pretty. I think Osborne did a better job of motivating the left than Miliband did. The speech doesn't seem to have been well-received amongst a fair amount of Conservatives, either.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
I think the idea behind the speech was supposed to be showing they are being honest with the electorate as to what still needs to be done, framing it as they are the party who are making the tough decisions versus the party who are not being honest with the scale of cuts or tax rises needed to eliminate the remainder of the deficit. It is a gamble, I've never seen such a brutal speech before a GE anyway!

Was telling though that Andrew Neil was interviewing someone from Labour directly after the speech and asked if they actually oppose any specific proposals in the speech and didn't really get an answer.

Edit: Not heard the full thing yet but Teresa May's speech sounds fantastic.
 
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