ITV/ComRes poll of 40 most marginal Conservative/Labour seats out last night.
LAB 41
CON 30
UKIP 17
LD 6
OTH 6
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1274/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll.htm
The post election Tory leadership battle should be hilarious. Like potentially party splitting.
Ashcroft basically backs the Comres poll with his own polling
LAB 41
CON 30
UKIP 17
LD 6
OTH 6
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1274/itv-news-marginal-constituencies-poll.htm
The post election Tory leadership battle should be hilarious. Like potentially party splitting.
Ashcroft basically backs the Comres poll with his own polling
In the polling I have done so far, the only gains that currently look likely for the Conservatives would come from the Liberal Democrats. So far I have found eight Lib Dem seats where the Conservatives are ahead. Unfortunately I have also found eight seats which, on current polling, the Lib Dems would lose to Labour.
That leaves no current net advantage to the Tories on the Lib Dem battleground. And to make matters worse, my research has found the Conservatives currently on course to lose two seats to UKIP.
If that situation persists, according to our formula, the Conservatives can afford to lose no more than 22 seats to Labour before they cease to be the largest party in the House of Commons.
Unfortunately, the polling I have already done in individual seats, starting with the most marginal, shows the Tories already behind in 24. This includes Brighton Kemptown, Enfield North and Hastings & Rye, three of the more defensive Conservative seats I am looking at in the round of research which is currently in the field. And the current national polls, as well as the overall swings in the Conservative-Labour battleground I have found so far, suggests the number of losses could extend to the point where Labour have a comfortable working majority.