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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

Meadows

Banned
So what are the SNP going to do? They have the majority they need to hold their referendum on independence, are they gonna pussy out and say, oh we'll do it in a few years, or do it now?

Polling (according to wiki) shows that 50% want to stay in the UK, 36% want to leave, and 14% don't know.
 

Empty

Member
i think they've already said they are saving it till the second half of their term to focus on jobs, so i guess try and build support for independence over the next two years, let people get more sick of the tory government in westminster, get further away from bad economic news on iceland and ireland then campaign really hard in a referendum.
 

Meadows

Banned
Wait...if Scotland becomes independent...doesn't that mean that the Conservatives would find it REALLY easy to win general elections in the UK? In 2010, Labour got 41 seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems got 11 and the Conservatives only got 1...
 
Meadows said:
So what are the SNP going to do? They have the majority they need to hold their referendum on independence, are they gonna pussy out and say, oh we'll do it in a few years, or do it now?

Polling (according to wiki) shows that 50% want to stay in the UK, 36% want to leave, and 14% don't know.
I think independence would be idiotic to be quite honest. A few years back the examples the SNP used as successful independent countries were Ireland and Iceland...

If they have independence I want a complete reform with a proportional voting system for England. I am getting really fucking tired of my vote meaning fuck all in my traditionally conservative constituency.
 

JonnyBrad

Member
Meadows said:
Wait...if Scotland becomes independent...doesn't that mean that the Conservatives would find it REALLY easy to win general elections in the UK? In 2010, Labour got 41 seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems got 11 and the Conservatives only got 1...

There would probably be some sort of boundary changes i would think. But you're correct the Tories would walk most general elections if you were to exclude Scotland in the present setup. And having one party win every time is NEVER a good thing no matter what your political persuasion.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Meadows said:
So what are the SNP going to do? They have the majority they need to hold their referendum on independence, are they gonna pussy out and say, oh we'll do it in a few years, or do it now?

Polling (according to wiki) shows that 50% want to stay in the UK, 36% want to leave, and 14% don't know.

They are in no rush to call it, they said it will be in the second half of this term.

Since devolution support for independence dropped and continues to drop, it's going to take quite a sales pitch to get people to go for it.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
Meadows said:
Wait...if Scotland becomes independent...doesn't that mean that the Conservatives would find it REALLY easy to win general elections in the UK? In 2010, Labour got 41 seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems got 11 and the Conservatives only got 1...

So, what you're saying is... see you in Scotland?
 

Cj70

Member
Declare independence and buy the Ark Royal from Cameron woo!

Nah... I think they'll do a referendum that has 3 options: Stay, Stay with more powers, Leave

They are likely to win on the middle option and would get to save face as right now most people do not want independence
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
Final figures for number of councillors:

Con +60
Lab +866
LD -842
Oth -84

Truly staggering that the Tories managed to gain. Politically Cameron has played a blinder, the Lib Dems have been the perfect human shield.
 

Walshicus

Member
JonnyBrad said:
There would probably be some sort of boundary changes i would think. But you're correct the Tories would walk most general elections if you were to exclude Scotland in the present setup. And having one party win every time is NEVER a good thing no matter what your political persuasion.
It would be harder for Labour to win, but not impossible. See 1997, 2001.
 
Meadows said:
Wait...if Scotland becomes independent...doesn't that mean that the Conservatives would find it REALLY easy to win general elections in the UK? In 2010, Labour got 41 seats in Scotland and the Lib Dems got 11 and the Conservatives only got 1...

Yes, which is why the Scottish result was so disastrous for Labour.

The Tories have a pretty large majority in England and are quite competitive in Wales. Scotland is the only area where Labour hold a massive advantage. If they were to lose it, their chances of majority government go with it, at least for a few elections until the electorate adjust.
 

Walshicus

Member
zomgbbqftw said:
Yes, which is why the Scottish result was so disastrous for Labour.

The Tories have a pretty large majority in England and are quite competitive in Wales. Scotland is the only area where Labour hold a massive advantage. If they were to lose it, their chances of majority government go with it, at least for a few elections until the electorate adjust.
Again, 1997, 2001.
 
I can see support for independence increasing the longer the Tories are at Westminster, and the idea of David Cameron campaigning for Scotland to remain in the union can't help matters.

On the plus side, hopefully the SNP go hard on getting more economic powers for the Scottish Parliament quickly, and we can avoid the cuts to frontline services being placed on England by the Tories.
 
Lets face it, the voting change never stood a chance, don't know why the Lib Dems bother to be honest, no one really cares about it.

They really chose the wrong card to bargain with in getting the coalition.

I really hope that they don't have a hissy fit and pull out, because there is a chance that the Torys will actually get a decent result if there's another election.

I for one like the idea of loose conservatism with a bit of liberal thrown in to stop the Tory crazy.
 
Cj70 said:
Declare independence and buy the Ark Royal from Cameron woo!

Nah... I think they'll do a referendum that has 3 options: Stay, Stay with more powers, Leave

They are likely to win on the middle option and would get to save face as right now most people do not want independence

They already have the country in the mother of all armbars.
 
DECK'ARD said:
Final figures for number of councillors:

Con +60
Lab +866
LD -842
Oth -84

Truly staggering that the Tories managed to gain. Politically Cameron has played a blinder, the Lib Dems have been the perfect human shield.

I don't even think its that. I think the Lib Dem's have shot themselves in both feet. Look at the places they lost councils/councillors. University cities.
 
tubgirlsplumber said:
I really hope that they don't have a hissy fit and pull out, because there is a chance that the Torys will actually get a decent result if there's another election.

I for one like the idea of loose conservatism with a bit of liberal thrown in to stop the Tory crazy.

I do too, but think about it from their point of view - whats the point in carrying on with it if they're not getting any recognition for the good things the coalition does? They're the junior partner, yet they're being used as a punching bag. I don't understand why people can't understand that in order to form a coalition, both sides had to compromise - which is why the Libs had to reneg on some of their promises.

If the coalition does collapse soon, and the tories win a majority in a snap election, at least the blame would fall where it should.
 

Meadows

Banned
ugh, if the coalition breaks down and Labour get into power I'd be so gutted. I really, really hate Labour. Terrible politicians.
 

DECK'ARD

The Amiga Brotherhood
The coalition won't break down for the simple reason of self-interests.

No matter how hard done by the Lib Dems are feeling, if it breaks down they'd be wiped off the electoral map and most of their MP's would be out of a job.

The one thing that won't happen out of all this is that.
 

Empty

Member
radioheadrule83 said:
I do too, but think about it from their point of view - whats the point in carrying on with it if they're not getting any recognition for the good things the coalition does?

not taking a position on whether i think they are doing a good job at this, i'd like to think they should carry on because our representatives should do what they think is in the best interests of the people that elected them, not what helps their positioning most in upcoming elections, because that's what they are there to do. though our public servants should of course take into account the views of the electorate, i think it's a bit sad that politics is so party orientated and things are so calculated for political gain rather than public good.
 
Meadows said:
ugh, if the coalition breaks down and Labour get into power I'd be so gutted. I really, really hate Labour. Terrible politicians.

If the coalition breaks down the Tories will walk the next election. Also if Labour is full of terrible politicians what exactly does that make the current Lib Dems?
 

Walshicus

Member
Meadows said:
ugh, if the coalition breaks down and Labour get into power I'd be so gutted. I really, really hate Labour. Terrible politicians.
I'd still trust even the worst of them more than I would the most "honourable" Tory...
 

Sage00

Once And Future Member
DECK'ARD said:
The coalition won't break down for the simple reason of self-interests.

No matter how hard done by the Lib Dems are feeling, if it breaks down they'd be wiped off the electoral map and most of their MP's would be out of a job.

The one thing that won't happen out of all this is that.
And Dave knows that now. The regionals and AV vote have proven it.

The Tories have no reason to give into any more Lib Dem policies, not even those previously agreed. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have no option but to support anything the 'coalition' does or the party will be wiped out.

We now, effectively, are under a Conservative majority government.
 

Garjon

Member
Sir Fragula said:
I'd still trust even the worst of them more than I would the most "honourable" Tory...
We as a country cannot allow Ed Balls to be the Chancellor, I can only imagine how disastrous that would be. Of course that's only if the Lib Dems actually have the balls to pull out; normally any other party would've done so already but with the backlash they are suffering? It's too late for that now, unfortunately.
 

Walshicus

Member
Sage00 said:
And Dave knows that now. The regionals and AV vote have proven it.

The Tories have no reason to give into any more Lib Dem policies, not even those previously agreed. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have no option but to support anything the 'coalition' does or the party will be wiped out.

We now, effectively, are under a Conservative majority government.
Latest opinion polls show Labour in the lead. A new election would not guarantee a Conservative majority.
 

Walshicus

Member
Garjon said:
We as a country cannot allow Ed Balls to be the Chancellor, I can only imagine how disastrous that would be. Of course that's only if the Lib Dems actually have the balls to pull out; normally any other party would've done so already but with the backlash they are suffering? It's too late for that now, unfortunately.
We've *got* Gideon Osborne. I fail to see how Ed Balls could be worse.
 

louis89

Member
Empty said:
Reform =/= elected Lords.

I'm for reform of the House of Lords. But I'm totally against an elected house. I support a 100% appointed house (i.e. the abolition of hereditary peerages).

Also, I really don't think Scotland's going anywhere. If the electorate (including the Scottish electorate) will vote No that emphatically to changing the voting system, I can't see breaking up the United Kingdom being on the cards at all.
 

Sage00

Once And Future Member
Sir Fragula said:
Latest opinion polls show Labour in the lead. A new election would not guarantee a Conservative majority.
That's not what I'm saying. What I'm suggesting is, we won't have a new election. The Lib Dems can't afford to break the coalition and call one at this point, they'll get destroyed.

So the Tories have effectively full control of the coalition. Their 'partners' are powerless, they can't afford to vote against them because bringing down the government would be the end of the party.

Cameron can and will get away with no Lords reform, and Clegg can't do a thing about it.

Next up, NHS reforms.
 

Walshicus

Member
Sage00 said:
The Lib Dems can't afford to break the coalition and call one at this point, they'll get destroyed.
Yes, but so would the Tories... so both sides have each other over the barrel when it comes to the threat of an election. So the Libs have two choices. They can either stay in the "coalition" and get nothing back, or they can quit and try to salvage public opinion by forcing a Tory minority government.
 

Garjon

Member
Sir Fragula said:
We've *got* Gideon Osborne. I fail to see how Ed Balls could be worse.
Good point.
Either way it's entirely obvious that the coalition is not working and in any other circumstances it would have been broken up by now. Perhaps this will be the final straw, they could argue they could be part of that government no longer and possibly go all out against the Tories to try and reclaim support.
 
louis89 said:
Also, I really don't think Scotland's going anywhere. If the electorate (including the Scottish electorate) will vote No that emphatically to changing the voting system, I can't see breaking up the United Kingdom being on the cards at all.

How would a vote for Scottish independence work? Would the entire UK vote on it? Surely the Queen (who does have a say in the formation of governments) would oppose a break up of the 'United Kingdom'?

As it stands, wouldn't total independence for Scotland be bad for them? Don't they get a disproportionate amount of money from the UK government in relation to NI and Wales?

Can Scottish MP's vote on matters that only pertain to England? Salmond seems to have an opinion on England's cuts, but bugger all on the cuts he'll have to make in Scotland.
 

Biggzy

Member
I must say even though i despise the Tories and everything they stand for i must admit that i almost admire the way Cameron has used the Lib Dems as a human shield, and now with the results of the local and devolved elections as well as the referendum, has now given the Tories free reign in the Coalition to do what they like.

The only hope for the Lib Dems now is that the economy recovers and unemployment decreases by the next election, however i fear that this may not be the case as the early signs are that Osborne austerity measures are choking what green shoots of recovery there was towards the end of the Labour government. Or the Lib Dems can say fuck it and stand up to the Tories plans, for example their reckless planned reforms for the NHS and give them something to show their supporters in 2015.
 

Biggzy

Member
Galvanise_ said:
How would a vote for Scottish independence work? Would the entire UK vote on it? Surely the Queen (who does have a say in the formation of governments) would oppose a break up of the 'United Kingdom'?

As it stands, wouldn't total independence for Scotland be bad for them? Don't they get a disproportionate amount of money from the UK government in relation to NI and Wales?

Only thje Scottish people will get the referendum for independece and lets say they do vote yes then i think the Scottish parliement and Westminster will enter negotions to thrash out the finer details like how much of the UK debt will Scotland inherit e.t.c.
 
Biggzy said:
Only thje Scottish people will get the referendum for independece and lets say they do vote yes then i think the Scottish parliement and Westminster will enter negotions to thrash out the finer details like how much of the UK debt will Scotland inherit e.t.c.

So the rest of the UK have no say at all in the loss of assets to our Kingdom? Will the Queen still be the Queen of Scotland?
 

Walshicus

Member
Galvanise_ said:
How would a vote for Scottish independence work? Would the entire UK vote on it? Surely the Queen (who does have a say in the formation of governments) would oppose a break up of the 'United Kingdom'?
Why would Elizabeth S-C-B get a say?

As it stands, wouldn't total independence for Scotland be bad for them? Don't they get a disproportionate amount of money from the UK government in relation to NI and Wales?
Not really. The economics probably would balance out in the short term. Of course an independent Scotland would be able to gear its expenditure to suit its economy better than the current situation which sees Scotland shackled to England's "Big Power" dreams.

Independence would be pretty beneficial in the long run. There's sod-all chance that we'd have anything less than the same freedom of movement arrangements we have with Ireland in particular [so no border guards] and we'd all be in the EU anyway. It's just a win-win situation where both sides get better flexibility. The only reason you'd oppose it would be on sentimental grounds.

Can Scottish MP's vote on matters that only pertain to England? Salmond seems to have an opinion on England's cuts, but bugger all on the cuts he'll have to make in Scotland.
I haven't seen Salmond comment either way on England-specific policies. And yes, Scottish MPs can vote on England only matters.



Galvanise_ said:
So the rest of the UK have no say at all in the loss of assets to our Kingdom? Will the Queen still be the Queen of Scotland?
Why would we? I'm English and Scotland isn't *mine* - it belongs to the Scots. This isn't a game of Civilisation or something - we don't get points for being bigger and clunkier.
 
Sir Fragula said:
Why would Elizabeth S-C-B get a say?

She's the Queen of Scotland, she appoints your first minister, opened your parliament, owns many properties in Scotland etc.

Sir Fragula said:
The only reason you'd oppose it would be on sentimental grounds.

Thats a dickish thing to say. I quite like their North Sea Oil operations, actually.

Sir Fragula said:
I haven't seen Salmond comment either way on England-specific policies. And yes, Scottish MPs can vote on England only matters.

Right, so the Scottish MP's could have voted 'no' for free England University Education, but 'yes' on free Scottish Education? Did that actually happen? If so, that is total bullshit.

He's been on Question Time before mugging off English policies.
 

Biggzy

Member
Galvanise_ said:
How would a vote for Scottish independence work? Would the entire UK vote on it? Surely the Queen (who does have a say in the formation of governments) would oppose a break up of the 'United Kingdom'?

As it stands, wouldn't total independence for Scotland be bad for them? Don't they get a disproportionate amount of money from the UK government in relation to NI and Wales?


Only the Scottish people will get the referendum for independence and let’s say they do vote yes then i think the Scottish parliament and Westminster will enter negations to thrash out the finer details like how much of the UK debt will Scotland inherit e.t.c. I then think the Queen will sign the Act, (she has no real power to say no) and Scotland will be an independent nation.

To answer your second point, English people say yes and point to how Scotland still have free prescriptions, eye test s and no tuition fees, which England don’t and Scottish people point out that they don’t see a lot of the revenue that comes from the North Sea and say that it evens itself out. What no one can disagree with is that if Scotland was an independent nation during the banking crisis then the chances are they will be in a similar position to what Ireland is currently in as Scotland wouldn’t have been able to afford the bailout off RBS and HBOS.

My personally opinion is that Scotland shouldn’t succeed from the rest of the UK because by being part of the UK they are able to punch well above their weight on the international stage then what they would be able to do if they were an independent nation.
 

Walshicus

Member
Galvanise_ said:
She's the Queen of Scotland, she appoints your first minister, opened your parliament, owns many properties in Scotland etc.
She's a figurehead with no power. And I'm not Scottish you twonk.


Right, so the Scottish MP's could have voted 'no' for free England University Education, but 'yes' on free Scottish Education? Did that actually happen? If so, that is total bullshit.
Yes, they could do that. That's the essence of the West Lothian Question.
 

Walshicus

Member
Biggzy said:
To answer your second point, English people say yes and point to how Scotland still have free prescriptions, eye test s and no tuition fees, which England don’t and Scottish people point out that they don’t see a lot of the revenue that comes from the North Sea and say that it evens itself out. What no one can disagree with is that if Scotland was an independent nation during the banking crisis then the chances are they will be in a similar position to what Ireland is currently in as Scotland wouldn’t have been able to afford the bailout off RBS and HBOS.
That's working on the assumption that the regulatory environment would have been as lackluster, which is not likely. You can point to Ireland or you can point to the Netherlands or a dozen other similarly sized states which are performing fine.

My personally opinion is that Scotland shouldn’t succeed from the rest of the UK because by being part of the UK they are able to punch well above their weight on the international stage then what they would be if they were an independent nation.
What benefit does that bring? The EU is responsible for Trade policy, so that's not an issue. It's just a bit outdated to think that people are better served with larger states these days. We have the EU and NATO to provide that level of security. We don't need big states.
 
Sir Fragula said:
She's a figurehead with no power. And I'm not Scottish you twonk.

My apologies.

In principle, if the Scots want independence I am all for it. I just hope that they've thought it through. The UK as a whole owns a big stake in some of the Scottish based banks, and they'd have to take on a lot of debt. They'd also lose a lot of clout on the world political stage etc.

Sir Fragula said:
Yes, they could do that. That's the essence of the West Lothian Question.

I'm totally against that. I can't believe that was allowed to happen. Even though the number of Scottish MP's is small in Westminster, that's still rather nuts.
 
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