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UK PoliGAF thread of tell me about the rabbits again, Dave.

Dambrosi

Banned
Meadows said:
So you don't believe in Democracy?
I used to, but not so much anymore, and you want to know why? Morons like Philip Hollobone, who's spouting paranoid anti-European bullshit in the debate right now, are more common than any of us would like. Plus, don't forget the pernicious influence of the Murdoch press, though that will hopefully be lessened over time.

As a result, I don't think people should have the right to vote on issues that they don't know anything about. It's a recipe for disaster in the long run, as any American PoliGAFfer would agree. Hmm, maybe that's a bit too harsh. What I mean is that I believe the British people are being betrayed threefold - by those in power, by the media and by their own deeply-held beliefs/prejudices. All three elements combine to create misinformation, mistrust and paranoia within the mind of the average voter, which leads them to make emotive, rash and destructive decisions that affect more than just themselves. In matters that affect the country's present and future prosperity and security, as well as the wellbeing of present and future citizens of the country, maybe democracy as practiced today isn't the best option, since people tend to vote with their hearts rather than their minds.

philip_hollobone.jpg

Seriously, what a kipper-faced buffoon. Just look at him. :p

Meadows said:
I'm glad to see you post that.


Meadows said:
Thanks! Good to see foreigners finding our politics interesting! For the record I love Empty and PsiSheep's posts. I also love it when Meus Renaissance says crazy off the wall shit.
My favourites are zomgbbqftw and Phisheep, though I like Chinner and SmokyDave's posts as well. It's nice to hear the intelligent and informed views of others, even if I might not agree with them. Reminds me that I'm not an island.
 
TCRS said:
So, when are they going to vote?

if i know the commons, probably about 10pm.

this really isn't a big deal per se, it's just a backbench motion that gets debated at the end of the day, just it's gotten a lot of interest.
 
10pm.

You know this is the reason I love direct democracy. It really sparks discussion like nothing else can. Even if we all have differing views over the idea at least we get to hear the opinions of our politicians on subjects of our choosing.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Bunch of spurious arguments being lobbed around on both sides. Members seem a bit confused about whether they are arguing pro/anti Europe or pro/anti referendum.

Current guy moaning that we were lied to by Heath in the 1970s in terms to veto/transfer of powers etc. That's a bit unfair, as at the time nobody could have foreseen the collapse of Communist Eastern Europe (which is what led to EU expansion/political framework etc).

Whole load of woolly stuff.

If there were to be a referendum, my biggest worry is how much of the agenda would be led by the scaremongering press rather than by proper information.

EDIT: haven't followed the whole thing, has anyone moved any amendments?

Ah. Apparently not. Powerful final speech from some Conservative or other (one of the rebel ones). Now it's the division.

Massive queues of Members trying to get into the 'No' lobby (to the right of the TV screen) - looks like a big majority for No - hardly surprising given the whips. I guess the remaining bit of interest will be exactly who and how many voted for.
 
urgh, it's so slow.

the whole actually going through a door thing is a cool novelty, but in the Scottish parliament they just vote on everything electronically at the end of the day on everything in 5 minutes. Done and dusted.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
NO wins, 483 to 111

I reckon about 30 of those 111 rebels were opportunistic ditherers (you could see them checking how full the No lobby was before nipping off to the Ayes to get constituency votes). That leaves roughly the 80 that Meadows pointed out earlier. Good call Meadows.
 
The Noes have it! About 80-90 Con rebels. Difficult times coming up ahead for Cammo. He will need a lot of skill for the near future to navigate Tory Euroscepticism with Lib Dem Europhilia, if there is one issue that will break the government it is the EU. Opinions are incredibly polarised on this subject and I see it breaking out again when the EU come to us asking for billions.
 
TCRS said:
More power to the rebels. But what happens with them now? Will funding be cut or what?

if they were in the government they'd have to resign and backbenchers may have to worry about not being selected by local party next time. unlikely this time though, given the average tories are gonna be eurosceptic.
 
TCRS said:
More power to the rebels. But what happens with them now? Will funding be cut or what?

A couple of resignations, but otherwise very little. If anything it will be the MPs which voted with Cameron that will be in trouble as local associations have threatened deselection to many MPs who vote with Cammo, especially his A-Listers.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
TCRS said:
More power to the rebels. But what happens with them now? Will funding be cut or what?

- Less opportunity of a government position in this Parliament
- the few with government positions will lose them (so have less money, but more freedom)

There are no other sanctions.

zomgbbqftw said:
Difficult times coming up ahead for Cammo. He will need a lot of skill for the near future to navigate Tory Euroscepticism with Lib Dem Europhilia, if there is one issue that will break the government it is the EU. Opinions are incredibly polarised on this subject and I see it breaking out again when the EU come to us asking for billions.

I don't think the near future will be all that difficult. Not on this issue where there is a lot of cross-party support. Certainly withe the current mess in the Eurozone, what we do in the short term is going to be driven by realpolitik rather than ideology.

The big difficulty comes in the next Parliament/manifesto for the next election.

It wouldn't be at all a bad idea for Cameron to open up the EU debate over the coming years - and on matters of substance rather than this in/out/shake it all about tabloid headline stuff. That way he might be able to mollify the rebels and develop his negotiation position and mitigate the most rabid of the euroscepticism all at once.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
zomgbbqftw said:
A couple of resignations, but otherwise very little. If anything it will be the MPs which voted with Cameron that will be in trouble as local associations have threatened deselection to many MPs who vote with Cammo, especially his A-Listers.

And that is, I think, why we saw so many ditherers on the floor of the Commons. It wouldn't be at all a bad thing to chuck out some of the A-listers anyway, some of them made rotten speeches in that debate - unthoughtful, discourteous, divisive and partisan. That is not what we need.

EDIT:

Just to put this in a bit of perspective, all of this happened because 100,000 people signed a (not very well drafted) petition. That's just slightly bigger than the population of Great Yarmouth, and about a quarter of those who marched (which is a bit more effort than signing) against the foxhunting bill.

Those who claim that on this meagre basis we should 'listen to the people' need to be careful what they wish for.
 

Meadows

Banned
Hmm a back-bench Lib Dem MP Adrian Sanders rebelled, he was the only one. Odd, and Caroline Lucas voted for the motion too. Interesting.
 
Just getting around to it now, but the UK's current account deficit is very small this quarter. Absolutely great result with a £2bn deficit this quarter and a £4.1bn deficit last quarter. Analysts had expected around £9bn deficit for Q2 and this is a great result for us. In other great news the savings rate has gone up as well and the disposable income rate went up.

To summarise, we are earning more money from overseas through investment, people are saving more money and they have an increased rate of disposable income. A very good news day for the UK economy and it shows that we are rebalancing, albeit slowly.

Still the news on the current account balance is by far the best we've had for ages. We also had a slight repayment on consumer credit as people begin to pay down debts and reduce their monthly outgoings. This is obviously a double edged sword because we can't have too much thrift and a slowdown fuelled by consumer downturn, but overall it's a net plus that debts are being reduced since the long term picture of less money being wasted each month on interest is definitely positive.

We regraded the UK economy outlook on this news from negative to neutral and expect Q3 growth to be around 0.6-0.9% and Q4 growth to be around 0.3-0.6%. Even on the lower estimates we are doing relatively well. If the economy can hit the higher estimates we will see some growth in employment in Q1-Q3 2012 as that increased growth feeds into the real economy.
 

Meadows

Banned
Yeah, to be honest the whole pro-EU thing isn't exactly the reason that I voted for the Lib Dems. I'd put myself into the Eurosceptic pile, but I still think that we should stay in the union, just with more self-determination.
 

Walshicus

Member
It's an irrelevant conversation anyway. When Scotland votes for independence, the entire mindset of the English public will be rethought. Psychologically we'll be forced to come to terms with our lack of singular influence, and to accept that our role on the global stage can only be voiced in terms of our position within Europe.

The UKIP (an anachronistic acronym) vote will be reserved for blanket isolationism.
 

Meadows

Banned
BBC Ticker:

LATEST: UK PM on eurozone crisis: 'We need... greatest possible support for... most comprehensive solution'

Cameron is a robot confirmed.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Meadows said:
BBC Ticker:

LATEST: UK PM on eurozone crisis: 'We need... greatest possible support for... most comprehensive solution'

Cameron is a robot confirmed.

made me laugh out far too loud when I saw it and thought the same thing. One of the shittest leaders our country has ever had and yet won't receive even half the ire Gordon Brown did.
 
Pie and Beans said:
made me laugh out far too loud when I saw it and thought the same thing. One of the shittest leaders our country has ever had and yet won't receive even half the ire Gordon Brown did.

To be fair, he's taken tons of notes from ol' Teflon Tony, something Brown never did.
 

Meadows

Banned
Oh God, BNP party conference is on, they're talking about how they "triumphed over the Lib Dems and Tories in the council elections".

I didn't realise that winning 11 seats out of around 9000 was "triumph". Apparently their conference is taking place in some Working Men's Club in Liverpool. Sad that people overseas think that this party is comparable to other European anti-immigration parties.
 

Temrer

Neo Member
Guerrillas in the Mist said:
To be fair, he's taken tons of notes from ol' Teflon Tony, something Brown never did.
That was what I liked most about Brown - he wasn't Blair in every respect - just a dour git who wanted to do his job, not arse about with media and looking shiny.

Meadows said:
Apparently their conference is taking place in some Working Men's Club in Liverpool. Sad that people overseas think that this party is comparable to other European anti-immigration parties.

Ugh. Get them out of my hometown.
 

Meadows

Banned
Why do Sky News think people care about the Jackson trial? Always fucking going on about it when they could be covering bigger news, it's like they realised people didn't care but thought if they kept covering it people would start to care.
 
Sir Fragula said:
It's an irrelevant conversation anyway. When Scotland votes for independence, the entire mindset of the English public will be rethought. Psychologically we'll be forced to come to terms with our lack of singular influence, and to accept that our role on the global stage can only be voiced in terms of our position within Europe.
What makes you so sure the independence referendum, when it comes, will be successful?

1. The polls consistently show those in clear support to be a minority. Salmond himself can't be too confident of a favourable result or I imagine he would be holding it sometime soon rather than near the end of his term, as he announced.
2. I get the feeling that many say they want independence, but have yet to fully think out the significance of such a move and say so mainly out of instinctive patriotism. 'Saying' has no consequence. It would be a union of four hundred years coming to an end. When the referendum arrives, and goes from being a feature of the distant future to an event of the now with immediate and immense potential for change, I wouldn't be surprised if support levels are lower than polls predict.
3. As we saw with AV, money and advertising is a big part of referendums. I suspect the SNP, being the lone party in support of independence, would be disadvantaged.
 

Walshicus

Member
angelkimne said:
What makes you so sure the independence referendum, when it comes, will be successful?
Aside from it being Right? ;)

Well:

1. The polls consistently show those in clear support to be a minority.[/.
Latest polls show a clear and growing plurality in favour of independence.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/10/16/scottish-independence-backed_n_1013523.html
(On mobile, can't find the actual Com-Res survey yet!)

2. I get the feeling that many say they want independence, but have yet to fully think out the significance of such a move and say so mainly out of instinctive patriotism. 'Saying' has no consequence. It would be a union of four hundred years coming to an end. When the referendum arrives, and goes from being a feature of the distant future to an event of the now with immediate and immense potential for change, I wouldn't be surprised if support levels are lower than polls predict.
I don't think people are nearly as sentimental about the Union as that. Plus, it's only really been 300 years of political union.

3. As we saw with AV, money and advertising is a big part of referendums. I suspect the SNP, being the lone party in support of independence, would be disadvantaged.
I suspect otherwise - the SNP is probably the only party of government across our countries with an untarnished reputation for competence. The Tories are dead as ever in Scotland, the Liberals are unforgiven and Labour are a mess. The SNP have governed well on the other hand in a system designed to punish them.

The Scots are increasingly coming to terms with the benefits they've earned by not being tied to English politics. I think there is a strong appetite, a sense of optimism for the Scottish future and the SNP can capitalise on that.

Oh, and they're not the lone party in support of independence. But they are the only major party.
 

Omikaru

Member
One thing I've learned with Alex Salmond is to never underestimate his ability to get what he wants, even when the pundits say the odds are stacked up against him.

First, he fought hard to get the devolution in Scotland. Then he formed a minority government, which beforehand people said would be unlikely. They also said his first government would sink due to the opposition having a majority. It never. After all of this this, they said a minority government would be the most he'd ever get; an exceptional outcome to a system rigged so that he'd never get power.

And then he won a landslide this year.

There's a lot of reasons for this. Firstly, Salmond is likeable. He strikes me as a genuinely nice guy who has a bit of a gob on him. But when he speaks, you know he's fighting your corner (not being a Scot, I have to simply assume this part, but I get the feeling that's part of his appeal).

Besides this, he's also a very smart man, and a shrewd politician. He's now got four-and-a-half years to time this Scottish independence referendum, so he's going to wait for the best possibile opportunity out of already strong polling. Normally I'd say that Cameron/Clegg would surprise him with an early referendum (they can most certainly do this), but no doubt Salmond has planned for this and it'd be a close call.

If they forced him into an early referendum and Salmond won, Cameron and Clegg would be crucified by parliament, their parties, and even the English electorate once the ramifications of the lost North Sea Oil revenue (and let's be honest, the UK won't be able to keep all of it, or even the majority of it) hits the South East in the nuts. The other knock-on effect, of course, would be a boost to positive sentiment towards Welsh independence, which would be a further blow to Westminster.

Basically, Salmond is in the driving seat. Considering his aims, I greatly envy his position right now.
 
So Occupy is starting to cause waves in UK media I see... two resignations from the clergy.

I'm not particularly inclined towards any side of the arguments that the OLSX movement raises, but I definitely stand by their right to make that argument in a public space as and how they see fit -- certainly as they have been doing so peacefully.

There is a real malignant narrative permeating the media today, even the BBC, in which they have been interviewing protestors and trying to malign them as distrustful and shameful by a) asking those masked to reveal their identities and b) asking them whether or not they feel bad about two clergymen voluntarily resigning. Firstly, fuck off BBC - they don't have to tell you who they are, and secondly, at least one of those men had every sympathy with the protestors and is resigning because he feels struggling to reconcile his feelings and responsibilities makes his position is untenable: ie. it has nothing whatsoever to do with individual protestors, and they shouldn't be made to feel responsible.

What really fucking pisses me off is David Cameron wading into this and saying they would look at legal ways to remove them, maybe even changes to the law. I remember this berk slamming Labour for being overly-reactionary and overly-legislative, and now he is behaving just like they did! Yes, there is Church property being occupied and a road being occupied, but since when do we allow the Government or the Highways Agency to dictate to us on what makes effective grounds for staging a protest? These are public places. Protest is a form of civil disobedience, there are no codes of conduct for deciding the most effective staging ground... it stinks of "oh yes, of course you have a voice, but if you'd be so good as to use it quietly over there where you won't be heard, that would be great. Chop chop!"...

It will loathe some people for them to read me making this comparison, but it kind of reminds me of Mubarak not liking the protestors staying in Tahrir Square, or the Chinese not taking too kindly to the students in Tiananmen Square... of course it's not okay to try to remove people or move them on with extreme force, but is legislating some daffy law to say they can't stay overnight or use tents really that much better? You are still stifling peoples' right to protest.

All the right wing posters on Have Your Say (the BBC forum for their stories) are trying to say "enough is enough", and are also blaming the protestors for the resignations, they are whining on about the inconvenience its causing people who might have liked to use that road or might have liked to visit St Paul's without all the liberal riff-raff about... honest to fucking god, they could not be more partisan or transparent. I know for a fact that friends of mine, normal, everyday, fully employed people - one of whom is a very well paid teacher - have been to the protests, yet to read the BBC you'd think everyone was a fucking benefit scrounger. People have been taking it in 'shifts' to occupy the area, indeed, that is the entire idea behind the protest... if that road is so important, why isn't there a groundswell of counter protest and people trying to go there and reason with them to move on? If the church property is being disrespected, why has the church and many of its members actually been quite supportive, and why has its management not spoken out?

Some people are reasonably asking themselves why the protestors aren't moving to Canary Wharf and other such places -- but many of the potentially more effective venues are private estates where their presence would not be tolerated by police and private security firms. They DID set up protest outside the exchange and they were moved. They were invited to set up outside St Pauls. The current position of the protest is clever not just because it has drawn the Church and the rest of the country into the debate, but it also invites us to call into question the morality of our politics, the morality of our capitalism -- not to say bring in an alternative to that capitalism -- but to say, are we being of good faith to one another and living up to those old, famed Christian ideals in our implementation of it?...

To be honest, I don't feel particularly moved to support the Occupy movement (yet) - but I'll defend their right to protest to the death. This idea of intefering with protest, controlling it, legislating if necessary, dictating when and where it can occur -- this is the slipperiest of slippery slopes.

I hate the idea of anyone in the political class or corporate world dictating the terms of our right to protest.

Our grandfathers and their fathers before them fought and died on the bloody fields of war so that we could have freedoms such as these. In this age of utter apathy, we shouldn't be so quick to try and silence, denigrate, defame and slander people who are simply acting on their beliefs -- especially when their aims are a fairer world for the great bulk of us. I mean, at least these people care about their country and their fellow man and are actually out trying to achieve something. As sloppy and as indirect as their message often is, at least they're doing something. Everyone who is trying to make them out as smelly, hippy, idealist benefit cheats or something makes me fucking sick.
 
Yup, 0.5% growth is above expectations of 0.3-0.4%, still below maximum capacity growth of 0.6-0.9%.

I think 0.2-0.3% growth will be decent for next quarter and around 0.5% for the final quarter bringing my estimate to around 1.3% which is the same as the IMF prediction. If we manage to grow 1.3% or higher this year it is a job well done. Reducing the deficit from £137bn to £122bn while achieving growth is, according to some prominent economists of the left, impossible to achieve. So, here's to impossibility!

Just to explain, left of centre economists believe in reducing the deficit as a proportion of GDP but not in cash terms. So you maintain spending as it is and maintain the deficit in cash terms and hope that the economy grows faster as a result and brings the deficit down as a proportion of GDP. The problem is that they tried this in the US and the deficit has actually increased from 10.3% to 10.5% of GDP as growth was about the same as what we had.

Traditional economic 1 - 0 Neo-Keynesianism
 

Meadows

Banned
Wouldn't a leftist economist say that there should be an increase in taxation of big businesses, perhaps in line with reducing VAT to 17.5%? That's what I would do.
 
Meadows said:
Wouldn't a leftist economist say that there should be an increase in taxation of big businesses, perhaps in line with reducing VAT to 17.5%? That's what I would do.

That's more policy based, I was talking in general about the deficit being reduced in cash terms is something most left of centre economists don't believe is possible whilst maintaining economic growth.

Your plan is fraught with danger as other tax jurisdictions could prove more competitive for business and see a loss of jobs. VAT is an easy way to raise a lot of money because the UK is not a world leader in consumer goods production. A VAT increase affects our import market more than anything else (the latest study was a load of rubbish because it includes temporarily unemployed people and retired people with high savings and low income) because we import most of our consumer goods.
 
angelkimne said:
3. As we saw with AV, money and advertising is a big part of referendums. I suspect the SNP, being the lone party in support of independence, would be disadvantaged.

Couple of points here. The SNP are pretty loaded right now, what with a growing membership and various other donations recently from dead poets wills. Labour actually have a declining membership in Scotland with the decrease in dependence on trade unions and whatnot. The Tories basically don't exist up here to any large extent.

Also, they aren't the only party in favour of independence. Despite being smaller parties, the Greens (completely different party from the English greens who have 2 MSPs) and the socialist parties (who in the past had 7 MSPs) also support it. Any official yes campaign would probably be supported by all these parties and would probably be subject to spending limits anyways.

So theoretically a the yes/no campaigns will be fairly evenly matched.

I guess what I don't understand is the position of the Liberals and Labour regarding all of this. The Tories in Scotland are called the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party, and it's pretty explicit within their culture, but the Liberals and Labour up in Scotland have never been until recently explicit unionist parties. They both have a great record of campaigning for and advocating Scottish home rule within the union, advocating Scotland to have the powers it needs to deal with its problems closer to home. The Liberals always advocated federalism. In this era, the SNP were nowhere, contrarian and didn't even support devolution. But since they got their act together the other parties blind hatred of them has gotten in the way and suddenly they barely advocate any more powers being devolved, aside through the awful Scotland act currently going through westminster.

Make no mistake, Scotland wants and needs more powers for itself, and if the other parties won't take this chance and argue for much greater powers for the Scottish Parliament, I suspect opinion may slowly but surely turn around.
 

Meadows

Banned
Zomg, you got a month by month, or quarter by quarter view of the UK's budget deficit over the last couple of years? Seems like something you'd have handy.
 
Meadows said:
Zomg, you got a month by month, or quarter by quarter view of the UK's budget deficit over the last couple of years? Seems like something you'd have handy.


http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Public+Sector+Finance

That's where we get all of our information from when we need it. It has all of the latest deficit information there.

publicsectornetborrowing_tcm77-239749.png


This is the key image, the green line is the current financial year, from 01/04/11 to 30/09/11, the grey line is 01/04/10 to 31/03/11.

PSNBex is the measure of how much the government borrows from month to month excluding the cost of the financial interventions. It is the commonly accepted figure for the UK deficit.
 
Sir Fragula said:
Obvious counterpoint: The Great Depression.

This is a different scenario. Britain didn't have liabilities and debts worth 500% of GDP back then. Now we do. Our problem is one of too much debt, the only way forwards is to reduce that debt (both government, corporate and consumer) in absolute terms. The latter is happening as the net savings rate has gone up and the net lending to individuals is growing at the lowest rate in 20 years.

We are in for 10-15 years of low to medium growth, almost like Japan's lost decade, while we deleverage. I know it's not what people want to hear, but it is the honest truth. The best we can do is prepare ourselves in terms of better education, a more competitive workforce and more investment in infrastructure to prepare for a time when our total liabilities to GDP ratio has fallen to a sustainable level.
 
Meadows said:
Unison votes to strike on November 30th:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15570669

I'd piss myself laughing if it snowed and most of them were off anyway.

PCS were already striking on November 30th. I picketed earlier in the year over the tearing up of other rights and promises regarding compensation, and the inability to reach a pay deal that protected the lowest paid, and I also sympathise with older people who essentially joined an ailing civil service many decades ago for pension perks and promises that they'll now never have... but I am still quite young, I was placed on a crapper scheme anyway, and I can't afford to lose any money in the run-up to Christmas. I'd be amazed if this was a well observed strike.

zomgbbqftw said:
more investment in infrastructure

I'm all in favour of new house building schemes, new roads, faster rail, new green turbine / solar / house standards initiatives or whatever money making gimmickery they can think of, but I hear this "more investment in infrastructure" all the time and just think to myself -- I can't imagine the workshy, or struggling unemployed students and job seekers suddenly becoming bricklayers, environmental scientists and quantity surveyors.

What do they actually mean when they talk about helping the economy with more investment in infrastructure?
 

Meadows

Banned
I don't really know where I stand on the strikes, on the one hand, I broadly believe that public sector workers have it WAY better than most private sector workers anyway, but then again that probably says more about the sad state of private sector pensions than how good public sector pensions are.
 

Walshicus

Member
Meadows said:
I don't really know where I stand on the strikes, on the one hand, I broadly believe that public sector workers have it WAY better than most private sector workers anyway, but then again that probably says more about the sad state of private sector pensions than how good public sector pensions are.
Was speaking to a mate in the Police the other day. The mood there is pretty negative - no confidence in the government at all. We're lucky the police can't strike apparently.

That said, I'm sure that other public sector professions are having an even worse time.
 

Meadows

Banned
Sir Fragula said:
Was speaking to a mate in the Police the other day. The mood there is pretty negative - no confidence in the government at all. We're lucky the police can't strike apparently.

That said, I'm sure that other public sector professions are having an even worse time.

If the police went on strike we'd just have the army covering, it's what the UK always does when emergency services go on strike. For example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_firefighter_dispute_2002–2003

Still, wouldn't like it if they did strike.
 

Chinner

Banned
if the police striked they would just fire all the police and hire private security firms or a private military company.

/mgs4.
 
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