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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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P

Piggus

Member
C

Chibits12

Banned
Crakatak187 said:
Just read that, absolutely disgusting.
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What's absolutely disgusting about it is that the man who they're signing the pledge for also means not allowing to have "compromises" with the other party when it comes to lowering the National debt. Say you sign that pledge 18 years ago and want to break it? Say goodbye to the re-election bid.

This country was built on compromises, not the "my way or the highway" mantra.
 
T

Trouble

Banned
Was messing with the Paths to the White House NYT page. OH, VA and NV and it's in the bag, feeling pretty good about that.
7efPe.png
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P

Piggus

Member
Chibits12 said:
What's absolutely disgusting about it is that the man who they're signing the pledge for also means not allowing to have "compromises" with the other party when it comes to lowering the National debt. Say you sign that pledge 18 years ago and want to break it? Say goodbye to the re-election bid.

This country was built on compromises, not the "my way or the highway" mantra.
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Norquist is perhaps the biggest scumbag in the GOP's ranks.
 
U

Unknown One

Member
Chibits12 said:
What's absolutely disgusting about it is that the man who they're signing the pledge for also means not allowing to have "compromises" with the other party when it comes to lowering the National debt. Say you sign that pledge 18 years ago and want to break it? Say goodbye to the re-election bid.

This country was built on compromises, not the "my way or the highway" mantra.
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The republicans have been planning to obstruct the president even before he took office as well. The party of no new details on the gop plot to obstruct obama.
It's like a grade schoolyard fight, absolutely embarrassing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/opinion/krugman-obstruct-and-exploit.html?_r=0
 
P

Piggus

Member
fallagin said:
Yeah he's a real POS. How he got so many repubs to sign that shitty oath is beyond me.
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I heard him say in an interview that not signing the pledge basically had the same ramifications as breaking the pledge. But since he's just a lobbyist, nothing can really be done about him. It's disgusting.
 
G

GillianSeed79

Member
Whatever happens, at least I can go back to not caring about Ohio next week. No offense Ohio-Gaf. Swing states are like the macro version of undecided voters on Fox News panels. God, I really hate the electoral college.

Also, as a Democrat, I'm hoping for an Obama win, but I've already prepared for a Roney win. I refuse to get trolled like in 2004. Anyone thinking Bams is going to repeat 2008 in the electoral college is in for a long night. I fully expect this thing to go into the early morning hours with a one to two point differential in the popular vote, which, again doesn't matter.
 
C

CrazedProfessional

Member
Anyone wanna make a countdown timer until election NIGHT for us internationals interested in drinking heavily and laughing at the results regardless of the winner?
 
P

Puddles

Banned
My productivity has been so fucking low for the past 2-3 weeks. I spend at least 3-4 hours a day either on PoliGAF, 538, Politico, or some other politics website, and most of what I'm reading is useless fluff and speculation. I can't wait for this shit to be over so that I can get back to reading economics and other useful subjects.
 
A

Averon

Member
Puddles said:
My productivity has been so fucking low for the past 2-3 weeks. I spend at least 3-4 hours a day either on PoliGAF, 538, Politico, or some other politics website, and most of what I'm reading is useless fluff and speculation. I can't wait for this shit to be over so that I can get back to reading economics and other useful subjects.
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Yup. Whatever happens Tuesday night, I'm going to take a nice, long hiatus from PoliGAF, political blogs, and such for a while. Maybe I can finally tackle my massive gaming backlog.

edit: But if Obama wins, I'll hold off starting my hiatus until the end of next week. I want to bath in the salty tears of GOPers and political pundits (if Nate Silver's proven correct).
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Averon said:
Yup. Whatever happens Tuesday night, I'm going to take a nice, long hiatus from PoliGAF, political blogs, and such for a while. Maybe I can finally tackle my massive gaming backlog.

edit: But if Obama wins, I'll hold off starting my hiatus until the end of next week. I want to bath in the salty tears of GOPers and political pundits (if Nate Silver's proven correct).
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Not calling you out, it just always saddens me when I hear once an election ends people are going to disconnect from the political process.

It's so important that Americans remain consistently engaged, because the importance of what our leaders do continues well after you vote.
 
Rentahamster

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Zaptruder said:
@5%, Republicans seize power in all 3 branches of federal government.

World plunges into chaos as America destabilizes completely from tax-cuts and increased military spending.

2016: No one remembers the Green party, because anyone that cares has been killed in the nuclear world war of 2015.
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The Green party isn't the only third party running in this election.
 
M

mclem

Member
I've booked Wednesday off work, I'm ready for an all-nighter if necessary, although I'm wondering (from the UK) if it's more sensible to get up *early*.
 
C

C.Dark.DN

Banned
mclem said:
I've booked Wednesday off work, I'm ready for an all-nighter if necessary, although I'm wondering (from the UK) if it's more sensible to get up *early*.
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I think the peak of info rolling in will be 11pm-7am your time.

Or by 4 or 5 like angelkimne says \/
 
A

angelkimne

Member
mclem said:
I've booked Wednesday off work, I'm ready for an all-nighter if necessary, although I'm wondering (from the UK) if it's more sensible to get up *early*.
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Nah, gotta stay with Dimbleby from the beginning! Besides, the result should be clear by 4 or 5.
 
K

Karma Kramer

Banned
RDreamer said:
If you think the democrats could straight up run on a government takeover of healthcare you're loony. You know why Obamacare is characterized as that on the right? Because the American people are vehemently opposed to that as a concept. It's sad, yes, but that's reality..
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Any stats to support this? I remember polls at the beginning of the debates were supportive of a public option. The media narrative made it a lot more controversial than it was and Obama failed to seize on it as an opportunity to explain why a public option is cheaper and ethical.
 
K

Karma Kramer

Banned
Ecotic said:
He put a war-weary country back to peacetime, and put us onto the path to prosperity. He can have significant legislative accomplishments especially if he passes immigration reform.
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Increased Afghan War, Bombs Pakistan, Increases Military Budget and further restricts American freedoms is a nation back to peacetime?...
 
T

The Culture Vulture

Member
I for one plan on voting.

I'm looking forward to the end of campaign ads.

I'm dreading a contested election that is bound to happen if the numbers are close (I don't think they will be.)
 
S

Stridone

Banned
mr. puppy said:
poligaf doing their normal insane crap.
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This is basically the same thing you posted on page 1, PoliGAF is crazy!111

Are you gonna elaborate or add anything constructive, or are you just gonna fuck off and wait for the next opportunity to troll again?
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Stridone said:
This is basically the same thing you posted on page 1, PoliGAF is crazy!111

Are you gonna elaborate or add anything constructive, or are you just gonna fuck off and wait for the next opportunity to troll again?
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I was just going to ask that question. It's ok if he doesn't like PoliGAF's attitude, but shit if that's going to be his only contribution the least he can do is expand upon the idea and start some form of discussion about it!
 
2

2MF

Member
Puddles said:
They're weighted by demographics, i.e. age, race, gender, etc. Almost none of the polls are weighted by party.
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But there's a high correlation between age/race and party. As I understand it, polls select their interviewees non-randomly, so there are assumptions behind every poll. Specifically, they assume they know how many people of each race/age/gender will vote.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
2MF said:
But there's a high correlation between age/race and party. As I understand it, polls select their interviewees non-randomly, so there are assumptions behind every poll. Specifically, they assume they know how many people of each race/age/gender will vote.
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You don't understand how polls work.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
2MF said:
But there's a high correlation between age/race and party. As I understand it, polls select their interviewees non-randomly, so there are assumptions behind every poll. Specifically, they assume they know how many people of each race/age/gender will vote.
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Polls are meant to curb assumptions, not be based on them.
 
S

syllogism

Member
2MF said:
But there's a high correlation between age/race and party. As I understand it, polls select their interviewees non-randomly, so there are assumptions behind every poll. Specifically, they assume they know how many people of each race/age/gender will vote.
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No, this is all wrong. They adjust their random sample to census demographics in an attempt to eliminate non-response bias, that's all. The sample still has to pass through the likely voter screen (usually just a few questions regarding persons past voting history, excitement, interest in the election etc); a good pollster assumes very little about the electorate.
 
2

2MF

Member
syllogism said:
No, this is all wrong. They adjust their random sample to census demographics in an attempt to eliminate non-response bias, that's all. The sample still has to pass through the likely voter screen (usually just a few questions regarding persons past voting history, excitement, interest in the election etc); a good pollster assumes very little about the electorate.
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"They adjust their random sample" is just another way to say pretty much what I was saying. Those adjustments are based on assumptions.
 
C

Cubsfan23

Banned
God i cant wait for all the facebook/twitter tears. A lot of people think romney will win which makes it even more glorious
 
S

syllogism

Member
2MF said:
"They adjust their random sample" is just another way to say pretty much what I was saying. Those adjustments are based on assumptions.
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No they are not. If the sample is random, it matches census data. The sample doesn't comprise of likely voters, but just random americans.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
2MF said:
"They adjust their random sample" is just another way to say pretty much what I was saying. Those adjustments are based on assumptions.
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They take a random sample of the populace representative of the state census and ask them whether they're voting. The only assumption made is that the census is correct.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
2MF said:
The census does not tell you what ages/races/genders are more likely to vote.
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I'm gong to remember these posts when you try to talk about the economy again. Or maybe I should've remembered your thoughts on the economy when you started posting here.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
2MF said:
The census does not tell you what ages/races/genders are more likely to vote.
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That's why polling firms don't use it for that and ask responders questions about it directly.

Which I'm pretty sure was already explained.
 
2

2MF

Member
Hitokage said:
That's why polling firms don't use it for that and ask responders questions about it directly.

Which I'm pretty sure was already explained.
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The "likely voter screens" introduce their own problems:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-romney-have-an-edge-from-likely-voter-polls/

I'm not saying that the polls are garbage. I'm just saying that there's a fair amount of complications in polling, which the models try to take into account.

pigeon said:
I'm gong to remember these posts when you try to talk about the economy again. Or maybe I should've remembered your thoughts on the economy when you started posting here.
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What thoughts, and what do they have to do with this debate?
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
2MF said:
I'm not saying that the polls are garbage. I'm just saying that there's a fair amount of complications in polling, which the models try to take into account.
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Poll methodology is an entirely fair question, but it's better to do it from an informed perspective rather than making objections that don't match the actual process.
 
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