Well, I'm convinced.
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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
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Well, I'm convinced.
BertramCooper
Banned
I've said it multiple times already, but everyone is going to be really disappointed by how unexciting Ohio ends up being tomorrow night.
Unless you don't want it to be exciting, in which case you'll be very pleased.
Unless you don't want it to be exciting, in which case you'll be very pleased.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Tommorrow night? You live in a parallel universe or something?
metalslimer
Member
Yep, I expect it to be called pretty early which will basically end it.
Or a different timezone.
I especially like your Supreme Court and "not rewarding Republicans" arguments. Well-done. We're not just voting for one four-year term - we've voting for a term on the bench that may last 30 or 40 years.
Then, multiply that for another 100 court appointments.
We're voting for multiple centuries' worth of terms to be served. This little fact is overlooked all too much.
Circle Jerk
Member
Hell fucking no I don't want it to be exciting. I want it to be called the minute the polls close. Florida is where the excitement is this year.
The only thing that could please me more than Ohio being called for Obama when the polls close is Florida being called for Obama when the polls close.
Arne Carlson is awesome. the last sane Republican
BertramCooper
Banned
Sorry. Wishful thinking.
Just want this shit to be over.
It won't be called that early, but I'll be surprised if it's not called by 10 EST, at the very latest.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Haters stole my father's little Obama-Biden sign out of his yard in his upscale community. Response? He had a custom-made one done. 8' x 4' hanging in between the first 2 palm trees outside of his home. The fountain gives it a nice glow at night. Moral: don't fucks with his shit. It usually doesn't work out well in the end.
Lol, why do people get worked up so easily. To the point of stealing shit off of people's property.
Your Dad is awesome
Yeah, to me it's critical that Romney doesn't name Ginsburg's replacement. I don't see the poor lady serving until 83, and certainly not until 87 (if Romney won two terms).
Journeywalker
Member
Disclaimer: I have no qualifications to give anyone investment advice.
Something is very, very wrong with the prediction markets right now. There is opportunity for No-Risk Arbitrage for those with money in countries where online gambling is legal (i.e. not the United States). Apparently, arbitrage is not illegal because it makes markets more efficient, as long as it is legal to participate in the market. I implore anyone that acts upon this post: please donate at least 50% of the profits to a charity that provides disaster relief (such as the Red Cross).
Nate Silver alerted people to this, but apparently nobody outside the US (or even anyone in the US with offshore accounts) reads 538 and is particularly opportunistic. Probabilities on prediction markets can be treated like stock market prices. With this analogy, Obama is at $78.13 on Betfair and $66.00 on Intrade. A NeoGaffer could effectively "buy" 100 shares at $66.00 on Intrade and "sell" 100 shares at $78.13 on Betfair ("lay" in their terms) tonight and cash in after the election is over. Some arithmetic is required, as the sites don't use the same system.
Something is very, very wrong with the prediction markets right now. There is opportunity for No-Risk Arbitrage for those with money in countries where online gambling is legal (i.e. not the United States). Apparently, arbitrage is not illegal because it makes markets more efficient, as long as it is legal to participate in the market. I implore anyone that acts upon this post: please donate at least 50% of the profits to a charity that provides disaster relief (such as the Red Cross).
Nate Silver alerted people to this, but apparently nobody outside the US (or even anyone in the US with offshore accounts) reads 538 and is particularly opportunistic. Probabilities on prediction markets can be treated like stock market prices. With this analogy, Obama is at $78.13 on Betfair and $66.00 on Intrade. A NeoGaffer could effectively "buy" 100 shares at $66.00 on Intrade and "sell" 100 shares at $78.13 on Betfair ("lay" in their terms) tonight and cash in after the election is over. Some arithmetic is required, as the sites don't use the same system.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Didn't you say you put money down on a Romney win? I hope it wasn't too much.
I mean personally invested. Not financially. The way some people act, it's as if Romney or Obama will personally blend the kittens of their political opponents post election.
The money part I don't really care about. It's more about banter between friends than an actual statement...and me putting more stock in a potential Romney victory than my friend. It's not about whom we want to win. It's more of a "There is no way Obama is gonna lose" vs. "Nah, he's got a chance".
In fact, you could do this for any sum, as long as the prices hold and you've got the cash. It's free money.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Nice. Politically-inspired vandalism is so immature and petty.
EatinOlives
Member
I'm picturing sad little people driving along, seeing a 'Bams '12 sign and just wrinkling their noses going "HRRNNN!! SOMEBODY SUPPORTS OBUMMER! NOBODY ELSE SHOULD SEE THIS!!!", get down right out of their car, and take that shit and put it in their trunk.
Sad, pathetic people. PSA: If you ever find yourself in a stranger's lawn taking a tinyass cardboard sign simply because it doesn't have the name your favorite political candidate on it, that's the best time to reevaluate your life because you're fucking wasting it.
Sad, pathetic people. PSA: If you ever find yourself in a stranger's lawn taking a tinyass cardboard sign simply because it doesn't have the name your favorite political candidate on it, that's the best time to reevaluate your life because you're fucking wasting it.
Your dad is a straight up BOSS.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Florida, man. Florida.
He's surrounded by Romney supporters. Still, it surprised me too.
But yea, he didn't make his name by losing battles. I imagine him walking outside that morning, seeing it gone and saying to himself, "CHALLENGE ACCEPTED."
Gaf, Fox News ruined my grandparents. They voted for Obama in 08 and now they think he's the devil. We started talking about it and they got angry, like more angry than I've seen them talking about something like this. And when I tried to make points they just rattled off the Fox News bullet points. I've lost em.
This does remind me, outside of the nearby campaign headquarters, I don't think I have seen a single Obama Sign near UCF. Even the Romney ones have been relatively new, most of the signs are for US Senate Candidate Mack, bunchs of local people I don't care about since my ballot is casted in Palm Beach, and recently some signs about retaining the justices.
Journeywalker
Member
I know, I was using 100 as a simple example. I'm kinda disappointed that I can't do this--I was going to donate all the profits to the Red Cross.
This has totally happened to my grandparents (well, not the voting for Obama in 08 part). I don't know what's sadder: that my grandmother randomly told me that Obama "is a Muslim" in the context of an immigration discussion we were having or that I wasn't even all that surprised that she said it.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Lotion?
Dude Abides
Banned
It keeps them soft and pliable rather than stiff and brittle.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
I can't wait to watch Fox News the day after the election when Obama wins. All fucking day, I will feast on the tears.
Anger, misery
You'll suffer unto me
Harvester of sorrow
Language of the mad
Anger, misery
You'll suffer unto me
Harvester of sorrow
Language of the mad
Unknown Soldier
Member
Never ever count your chickens before they are hatched. The Republicans WILL try to steal the election if it's close. The only question is how.
I think you're supposed to lotion up the yard so the bad guys fall down like its something out of Home Alone
Dude Abides
Banned
So many states are close enough that we might not know the winner for sure for several days.
Polls aren't really neck and neck though.
Yeah, sorry but you're not going to win that bet.
speculawyer
Member
I think Fox has really fucked up a lot of older people.
Back in the day, all we had were the 3 network news broadcasts. ABC, CBS, and NBC. And honestly, it really didn't matter which one you watched . . . they were pretty much all the same. They were all pretty decent neutral news. So the people that grew up during that time just trust the news they see on TV.
And nowadays, they have Fox . . . and they like Fox because it kinda tells them what they want to hear. But since it is news on TV . . . they believe it. All of it.
Today, younger people are much more jaded and expect to have shit thrown at them all the time. So they are a bit more skeptical & cynical.
The national polls are reasonably close (Or where, I've not been checking them) but we use an electoral collage system which means that counts for nothing at all. Check the state polls, or may I point you to 538?
Angelus Errare
Banned
Friday driving from UCF area down University Blvd I saw a few Romney signs. Though I saw a bunch of chicks wearing pink Obama shirts.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I really feel like my state might flip for Mitt. Most of the people I've been talking to have been thinking about changing their vote over the last few days after watching Obama's retched handling of Superstorm Sandy.
I'm predicting a Reagan-like wave...basically everything is pointing towards this, in fact...
Get read for a new president.
I'm predicting a Reagan-like wave...basically everything is pointing towards this, in fact...
Get read for a new president.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
A little late to be a PD imitator.
overthehill99
Member
Can someone explain to me how this works in terms of times? The state's votes get announced as they roll in? What's the usual time frame for it to all be done, and the winner confirmed?
Votes are reported precinct by precinct, county by county usually. You can follow the county by county results on CNN or other sites. The networks cannot call a state based on exit polling until all of the polls in that state are closed (states with multiple time zones)
el retorno
Member
<3 your dad
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