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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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M

Magni

Member
I know libs I used to work with them in upstate Albany NY. The election to PMS-NBC talking heads IS over — at least in their minds . OR– maybe they had the inside line that thousands of ballots will not be getting to our heroes overseas in time for the election No matter — the most seriously stunned people in the world will be the leftists as Romney carries the day tomorrow. Chris Matthews will be on suicide watch.
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Sure that's why Romney will lose :lol Meltdowns will be glorious.

Squirrel Killer said:
Agreed.
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The Technomancer said:
Hurricane Sandy is actually a great example of one of the strengths of the electoral college system. Its basically a certainty that the aftermath of the hurricane is going to cause some kind of depression in turnout in the effected states (could be a little, could be significant) but as long as we assume that those who are turning out are a "representative sample" of its entire population the state's contribution to the national election remains identical.

Basically the good thing about the system is that it ties weight to population (via congressional membership), not turnout.
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Hurricane Sandy is a great example of why we need early voting coupled with mail-in/online voting, not why we need the Electoral College.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
JeTmAn81 said:
Amazing picture of Obama:

2012-11-05T065157Z_1947630021_GM1E8B5158M01_RTRMADP_3_USA-CAMPAIGN.JPG
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Moon Romney is coming.

tumblr_lndsbe4TXo1qit7h6o1_1280.jpg
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K

Kettch

Member
The Technomancer said:
Hurricane Sandy is actually a great example of one of the strengths of the electoral college system. Its basically a certainty that the aftermath of the hurricane is going to cause some kind of depression in turnout in the effected states (could be a little, could be significant) but as long as we assume that those who are turning out are a "representative sample" of its entire population the state's contribution to the national election remains identical.

Basically the good thing about the system is that it ties weight to population (via congressional membership), not turnout.
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This is a somewhat fair argument in favor or the electoral college (though not winner take all), but I would take issue with your assumption. If NY were a swing state and parts in NYC were under water this country would be a war zone.
 
S

Synth_floyd

Banned
Romney's internal polls claim that he has a lead vs. every other poll in existance. Is there any legit basis for this or is this just spin on their part so that their supporters are enthusiastic enough to go out to the polls? McCain's chair said that in 08 they lied and claimed that the polls were tightening and they had momentum even when they knew they were done.
 
E

ezrarh

Member
Synth_floyd said:
Romney's internal polls claim that he has a lead vs. every other poll in existance. Is there any legit basis for this or is this just spin on their part so that their supporters are enthusiastic enough to go out to the polls? McCain's chair said that in 08 they lied and claimed that the polls were tightening and they had momentum even when they knew they were done.
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It's either that or admit defeat.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Synth_floyd said:
Romney's internal polls claim that he has a lead vs. every other poll in existance. Is there any legit basis for this or is this just spin on their part so that their supporters are enthusiastic enough to go out to the polls? McCain's chair said that in 08 they lied and claimed that the polls were tightening and they had momentum even when they knew they were done.
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McCain's "internal poll" leak close to election 2008 had him winning or close in every battleground state, including Pennsylvania!
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Synth_floyd said:
Romney's internal polls claim that he has a lead vs. every other poll in existance. Is there any legit basis for this or is this just spin on their part so that their supporters are enthusiastic enough to go out to the polls? McCain's chair said that in 08 they lied and claimed that the polls were tightening and they had momentum even when they knew they were done.
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Internal polls are meaningless unless you release ALL your internal polls -- campaigns do polling like every day. Releasing just one poll for each state is unquestionably cherry-picked to make whatever case you're trying to make.
 
N

Necrovex

Member
I placed money on Obama winning. A small amount like $5 because my friend refused to bet $50. That would have been some easy money. :-(
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Piecake said:
only swing states. the rest dont matter
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Yeah, I'm just going to hit the swing states, including Wisconsin but not Michigan or Pennsylvania (which were never actually in play).

One important thing to understand about swing states is that it's not really anything specific to the state that makes them swing states -- it's that they're representative of the divided American electorate. Virginia and Ohio, for example, are microcosms of the conflict between Democratic minority and labor voters and Republican reactionaries and working-class whites. With a different Presidential candidate and/or different party policies, we'd have different swing states. Indeed, Romney's weakness -- and the GOP's weakness -- is easily understood just by looking at the difference between the two candidates' safe electoral votes.

Amir0x said:
Just wanted to say thank you for these valuable contributions to this topic and a good overview of hot states. If, at the end, you can collect them into one post, I'll implement it into the first post.
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Thanks! (And thanks to everybody else who offered kind words.) I'll put together a post with links to each swing state when I'm done.
 
A

Angelus Errare

Banned
I'm still trying to figure out how what Governor Scott is doing in FL legal. Shit, I'm still trying to figure out how he got into office in the first place.

Sigh democracy...where dumbasses have as much power as intelligent people.
 
MidgarBlowedUp

MidgarBlowedUp

Member
pigeon said:
nunst055.gif

NORTH CAROLINA
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I decided not to vote early here as I'm taking every precaution this time. Back in 2000 the republicans cheated many dems out of a voting. They got me too, by making me wait in line for 5+ hours then had the audacity to tell me I was at the wrong location. I wasn't at the wrong location but was forced to fill out an absentee ballot. I even received phone calls days before the election telling me that my polling location had changed. (This is impossible) They even hired 70+ year old ladies to run the polling location. I'm assuming this was another attempt to keep people calm. I mean, what would happen if I socked an old lady?

This time, I'm prepared. I'm bringing two forms of I.D. plus my voter registration card that shows my polling location. I get any trouble, I'm prepared to take whatever action I must to register my vote. I don't care who they have running the polls this time. You don't have a badass over here you just have a person that has grown wise to all the bullshit and is prepared to fight for my right to vote by any means necessary.

also
 
G

Gary Whitta

Member
Ugh this is like Christmas Eve except you don't know if Santa is going to bring you a bag of lovely presents or take a big steaming dump on your bed.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Gary Whitta said:
Ugh this is like Christmas Eve except you don't know if Santa is going to bring you a bag of lovely presents or take a big steaming dump on your bed.
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oh we know Santa is bringing us lovely gifts

it's just instead the media wants to pretend that there's no way to predict whether Santa stumbled upon a coal factory on the way over
 
A

ahoyhoy

Unconfirmed Member
Gary Whitta said:
Ugh this is like Christmas Eve except you don't know if Santa is going to bring you a bag of lovely presents or take a big steaming dump on your bed.
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Eh... it's more like waiting to see if you get nothing under your tree (causing you to continue wondering if Santa is indeed real or not), or finding Santa's severed head instead.

Even if Obama wins, I don't expect anything to get better, and instead just not get much worse.
 
Jackben

Jackben

bitch I'm taking calls.
As it turns out, my polling place is at a church about 250ft away from where I live. I'll be walking over there bright and early tomorrow.
 
R

rohlfinator

Member
RDreamer said:
But if we move to a popular vote wouldn't it just mean that California, New York, and Texas decide elections? I do wonder if the democrats would have a big advantage with a popular vote scenario since their support is clustered in the cities moreso, and so GOTV efforts would be massively productive for them.
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Yep, this is why I doubt Republicans will make any moves toward eliminating the electoral college in the scenario where Romney wins the popular vote/loses the EC.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Synth_floyd said:
Romney's internal polls claim that he has a lead vs. every other poll in existance. Is there any legit basis for this or is this just spin on their part so that their supporters are enthusiastic enough to go out to the polls? McCain's chair said that in 08 they lied and claimed that the polls were tightening and they had momentum even when they knew they were done.
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Internal polling is highly accurate in reality, but numbers released from internal polling is *extremely* inaccurate. I heard a story about this earlier today; they also are unlikely to still be producing polls due to the fact that there's nothing to gain from it - they can't buy any TV ads anymore and rally stops are functionally irrelevant and probably get less voters than it costs to run internal polling every day.
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
I remember clicking on a link talking about why Romney only showed like 1tax return because of a tax loophole in the year 1996 or was it 1997 through 2009.


Does any one have the link I'm talking about?
 
C

Chili

Member
Brit checking in. Got my Obama/Boss avatar sorted. Went to a Democrat event a few weeks ago in VA (Obama wasn't there though) and was amazed by the passion that people have when it comes to politics over there. I mean I've seen it on television but to be there amongst so many people across several generations joining together to support something or someone they believe in was incredibly moving and made me very envious compared to our incredibly dreary version. FIRED UP, READY TO GO!
 
P

pigeon

Banned
nunst048.gif

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Polls close: 8 pm ET

Pundits say:
nyt said:
New Hampshire has gradually become more competitive because of a political imbalance in the voters who are being added to the rolls and those who are leaving them. New voters — both people who have moved into the state and younger people who have reached voting age — are more Democratic than the residents who are leaving the state or dying.

“A third of the potential electorate in 2008 couldn’t vote in the state in 2000, either because they didn’t live in the state or because they weren’t old enough,” Mr. Smith said. The changes have dramatically changed New Hampshire’s political landscape from among the most Republican states in the Northeast to one where Mr. Obama was able to win every county in 2008.

But Mr. Obama is unlikely to do as well this year. The recession has slowed the number of newcomers, arresting the state’s shift to the left. Moreover, Mr. Romney’s brand of Republicanism — fiscally minded but less strident than many Republicans on social issues — resonates with many New Hampshire voters. The state, like many others, swung wholly to the right in 2010, and both parties now have areas of support they can count on. The winner in New Hampshire, Mr. Smith said, is likely to be determined by which campaign can get more of their people to the polls.
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/presidential-geography-new-hampshire/

Early voting: New Hampshire does not have early voting or no-excuse absentee voting.

Voter ID: New Hampshire passed a new voter ID law that requires a voter to present a photo ID or take an affidavit. It was tested in the primaries, will be in effect tomorrow, and will be even more restrictive in 2013.

Polls say: 538, which considers that New Hampshire will likely vote somewhat bluer than the polls show due to historical tendencies, has Obama an 80% chance to win with a 3.2 point margin. The RealClearPolitics average shows a smaller 2-point lead for the President.

Watch for: Dixville Notch, which will cast the first vote at the stroke of midnight. 2008 was the first time the little town chose a Democratic president in quite a while -- I'd be surprised if they picked him again, but I'd probably consider it a good sign. (This might be ridiculous.) Otherwise, I don't think there's much to watch with regards to New Hampshire -- while I expect Obama to win it handily, the 538 model considers New Hampshire one of the swingiest states in the union, so it wouldn't necessarily herald the end of the world if Obama lost it, nor would it really be an indicator if he put it away quickly.

edit: New Hampshire is now listed as having an 86% chance to go for the President by a 3.7 point margin. It's still one of the swingier states.

newhampshire-quarter.jpg
 
K

kaskade

Member
It seems like all the major TV networks put that the race is too close to call but a lot of the online stuff is putting Obama ahead with a good percent chance. This year is the first I get to vote (too young last time) and I'm going to hit that button like a motherfucker.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
kaskade said:
It seems like all the major TV networks put that the race is too close to call but a lot of the online stuff is putting Obama ahead with a good percent chance. This year is the first I get to vote (too young last time) and I'm going to hit that button like a motherfucker.
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Remember that Obama used the internet to steal the 2008 election by getting young people to vote
 
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