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[Amir0x]

go romney

we can't afford another 4 years

i mean just look at the debt

What is it about the debt now that makes it imperative to tackle differently versus at any other in history?

What do you think will be the outcome if we continue down the same path, varying from election to election how much we spend and pay out?

Do you not feel that much - if not most - of the reason the debt has risen to where it is in the past four years is because we entered the great recession, which caused many to lose their jobs and thus the government to collect less revenue? Do you not see how this situation may change as the economy continues to improve?

 

[RDreamer]

What is it about the debt now that makes it imperative to tackle differently versus at any other in history?

What do you think will be the outcome if we continue down the same path, varying from election to election how much we spend and pay out?

Do you not feel that much - if not most - of the reason the debt has risen to where it is in the past four years is because we entered the great recession, which caused many to lose their jobs and thus the government to collect less revenue? Do you not see how this situation may change as the economy continues to improve?

I think that was sarcasm.

 

[A Human Becoming]

What is it about the debt now that makes it imperative to tackle differently versus at any other in history?

What do you think will be the outcome if we continue down the same path, varying from election to election how much we spend and pay out?

Do you not feel that much - if not most - of the reason the debt has risen to where it is in the past four years is because we entered the great recession, which caused many to lose their jobs and thus the government to collect less revenue? Do you not see how this situation may change as the economy continues to improve?

I think that was sarcasm.

I'm surprised Amri0x fell for that.

 

[AlteredBeast]

very certain it was. Winwood is EV-level lib.

 

[Amir0x]

I think that was sarcasm.

eeps sorry it's just such a typical argument, wanted to see if we could push real discussion over it

I'm just sort of out of it today i guess

 

[A Human Becoming]

eeps sorry it's just such a typical argument, wanted to see if we could push real discussion over it

I'm just sort of out of it today i guess

I think it is a typical argument, just not worded in such a manner here.

 

[Aaron Strife]

 

[funkystudent]

I think Romney will win.


Not sure Obama can bring out the voters like he did before. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

[Foothills]

I think we're in for a Romney surprise win, followed by general freak outs of unbelief. Harry Reid hating Romney as much as he does will make for an amazing senate experience.

 

[rohlfinator]

Seriously. Wish we had like 2 month elections like in UK. This two years of ongoing campaigning is ridiculous.

Uhh... I'm getting tired of it too, but Romney wasn't even officially the Republican nominee until May of this year.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I fear that amendment will get passed. The wording on the ballot is horribly misleading and meant to deceive people who don't know what the amendment actually does. Polls haven't been reassuring either.

Misleading of that has been very scary. I've seen ads on TV with a black girl claiming how it would "help" inner city kids and on radio with Obama quotes and the line "plenty of democrats support it too." Typical tea-party legislature, abandon the public schools and prop up private schools.

 

[Vyroxis]

I think Romney will win.


Not sure Obama can bring out the voters like he did before. Hope I'm wrong though.

That's going to be the telling points. I'm not sure Obamas supporters are as fired up this time around. Some of them are for sure, bit I don't see the turnout he had last time. Pretty sure he has the edge, but we shall see.

 

[VALIS]

As an outside observer all this fascinates me. Looking forward to it (being over).

At what time (East coast wise as that's easier for me to calculate!) are the first Ohio exit polls likely to be released? Trying to work out what time to wake up.

This has probably been answered already but in case it hasn't, they don't release exit polls for a state while the voting is still open there as people have accused this of swaying the voters who haven't voted yet. Also, with Ohio figuring to be close, people probably won't be able to call it for a while.

I wouldn't expect this to be called until 11pm EST, and probably later than that.

 

[Dartastic]

Fucking eastern Oregonians. Fucking ffffff. You assholes are the ones screwing up the legalization of marijuana too aren't you? I HATE YOU.

 

[Y2Kev]

What is it about the debt now that makes it imperative to tackle differently versus at any other in history?

What do you think will be the outcome if we continue down the same path, varying from election to election how much we spend and pay out?

Do you not feel that much - if not most - of the reason the debt has risen to where it is in the past four years is because we entered the great recession, which caused many to lose their jobs and thus the government to collect less revenue? Do you not see how this situation may change as the economy continues to improve?

What don't you understand? The debt. Just LOOK at it.

 

[Vyroxis]

Fucking eastern Oregonians. Fucking ffffff. You assholes are the ones screwing up the legalization of marijuana too aren't you? I HATE YOU.

Welcome to democracy.

 

[Grakl]

Obama wins because Ohio.

I doubt Florida will go to him this year.

 

[SteveWinwood]

very certain it was. Winwood is EV-level lib.

Taking it as a compliment!

And sorry ami, this year especially it's really hard to tell sometimes.

 

[Dartastic]

Welcome to democracy.

AUGGGHHHHH

 

[VALIS]

Maybe Viginia, but no way on Florida unfortunately.

 

[Pctx]

Romney's got this guys.

 

[teruterubozu]

Why? Is there something about Obama that would make his supporters more likely to riot?

If OWS is any indication, I wouldn't worry.

 

[HylianTom]

That's going to be the telling points. I'm not sure Obamas supporters are as fired up this time around. Some of them are for sure, bit I don't see the turnout he had last time. Pretty sure he has the edge, but we shall see.

In swing states where Obama has a GOTV machine so good that nothing in history comes close (per Time's Mark Halperin on Charlie Rose, on the night of the last debate), I'm guessing that turnout will still be very, very high.

But in non-swing states? I could definitely see turnout being somewhat down from those highs of 2008. And I suspect that nationwide enthusiasm numbers' averaging effects hide that swing state drive.

We'll see. I'm thankful that my candidate's hopes are not hinging-upon an "all-the-pollsters-are-wrong" argument.

...

And I'll stick with my prediction:

 

[Amir0x]

Romney's got this guys.

Remember, I got your post saved as LAUGH TRACK. Don't forget the crow.

Taking it as a compliment!

And sorry ami, this year especially it's really hard to tell sometimes.

It's ok, I actually am familiar with your political views. Honestly I just read the post and sort of overlooked the name, because it's actually an argument I wanted to address with a Republican if it were possible.

 

[Higgy]

Speaking of Nate Silver he just tweeted this. If you want a good case from a conservative about why polling sites have Obama's odds too high: http://www.pointoflaw.com/archives/2012/11/my-election-prediction.php

 

[Particle Physicist]

Am I allowed to vote if I am not Christian?

 

[teruterubozu]

Am I allowed to vote if I am not Christian?

Check with Pastor Wright

 

[Puddles]

Romney's got this guys.

 

[rdrr gnr]

I just hope that America is restored.

I just hope that we get American back and working again.

 

[ActStriker]

Go Obama

 

[Amir0x]

Am I allowed to vote if I am not Christian?

Christian Nation sorry. Thomas Jefferson planted a cross on the desecrated corpse of King George when he died while John Adams prayed to the holy heavens that our laws be dictated by the Bible and God and not man.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Woah, there's an election going on?!

 

[Officerrob]

Speaking of Nate Silver he just tweeted this. If you want a good case from a conservative about why polling sites have Obama's odds too high: http://www.pointoflaw.com/archives/2012/11/my-election-prediction.php

In that article, even Frank goes on to say that even he would make Obama a 60/40 favorite

 

[Higgy]

In that article, even Frank goes on to say that even he would make Obama a 60/40 favorite

Yeah he give a pretty honest assessment but it does give me pause that things aren't quite as they seem.

 

[The Librarian]

Speaking of Nate Silver he just tweeted this. If you want a good case from a conservative about why polling sites have Obama's odds too high: http://www.pointoflaw.com/archives/2012/11/my-election-prediction.php

Mostly a good read. Though:

My swing-state predictions:
Likely Romney: FL, NC
Lean Romney: CO, VA
Too close to call, slight lean Obama if I have to choose: OH
Lean Obama: IA, WI
Likely Obama: MI, NH, NV, PA
Solid Romney: The other McCain 2008 states, IN, Nebraska 2nd District
Solid Obama: The other Obama 2008 states

smh

 

[Gibbo]

Just got done reading the most recent issue of the Economist- and their endorsement of Obama was pretty much based on them choosing the lesser of two evils. The article was pretty critical of Obama actually

Next week would be interesting to watch. I'm a non American who's hoping Obama gets this

 

[bananas]

Every state Obama won in 2008 except for Indiana will go for Obama again. Including FL and NC.

Final total will be:
Obama - 347
Romney - 191

Bet on it, folks.

 

[teruterubozu]

Speaking of Nate Silver he just tweeted this. If you want a good case from a conservative about why polling sites have Obama's odds too high: http://www.pointoflaw.com/archives/2012/11/my-election-prediction.php

I don't get why there is constant comparison to only 2008, when clearly the polling lessons learned in 2010 must also come into play.

 

[Officerrob]

I don't get why there is constant comparison to only 2008, when clearly the polling lessons learned in 2010 must also come into play.

2010, where Silver pretty much nailed the election? You also can't compare a mid-term to a presidential election

 

[speculawyer]

Maybe Viginia, but no way on Florida unfortunately.

It is still possible. Not likely but still possible. More likely than Romney winning MI, WI, PA, or Iowa.

Florida may appreciate Obama's hurricane work and that could get him a percent.

 

[speculawyer]

Every state Obama won in 2008 except for Indiana will go for Obama again. Including FL and NC.

Final total will be:
Obama - 347
Romney - 191

http://i.imgur.com/9KTKf.png

Bet on it, folks.

You are truly bananas.

 

[pigeon]

Polls are weighted for a higher democrat turnout than Republican. If that happens then the polls are right and Obama wins. Since the trends so far on early voting are signaling a higher republican turnout than last time and lower democrat then it could be a great night for the republican party. We shall see .

One common complaint in the current conservative fusillade is that many 2012 polls are using the “2008 turnout model.” Karl Rove, for instance, alleges that the pollsters are weighting their surveys to reflect the partisan and racial composition of the 2008 electorate–when Democrats outnumbered their Republican counterparts by 7 points on election day. Conservative critics think the GOP’s enthusiasm to oust President Obama means that differential will be a lot smaller this year. That might be valid, but the implication that polls are rigged to reflect the 2008 electorate is outright misleading: most of this year’s polls don’t use “the 2008 turnout model.”

In fact, the “2008 turnout model” critique is so far off base that responding to it simply entails explaining how polls work.

Most pollsters don’t weight their polls to match a preconceived electorate. Instead, they take a demographically representative sample based on actual figures from the US census and then let respondents speak for themselves about whether they’re voting for Obama or Romney. For illustrative purposes, consider the Bloomberg/Selzer poll. They started by taking a sample of all American adults, weighted to match the demographics of all adults in the US census, like, race, education, and marital status. To produce a likely voter sample, they then would have excluded adults who weren’t registered to vote and then asked a series of questions to help determine who was likely to vote....

We don’t need pollsters to tell us that Obama would lose if the electorate looks like 2010, nor do we need them to tell us that Obama would win if the electorate looked like 2008. What we need—and what we have—are pollsters with methods that allow us to get a decent grasp on what’s going to happen on Election Day. Pollsters are not sooth-sayers who correctly guess the composition of the electorate every four years; they take demographically representative samples of adults and let the sample speak for itself. That’s how polls using the same methodology managed to show Bush winning in 2004, Obama winning big in 2008, and a GOP takeover in 2010. It’s how Ann Selzer managed to show Obama winning the Iowa Caucus’ in 2008, even though there wasn’t any comparable Caucus to mirror as a “turnout model.” None was necessary.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107778/the-polls-dont-use-2008-turnout-model

.

 

[Bisnic]

No matter who wins, half the country will be disappointed, outraged.

Hopefully, these polls are wrong and a greater % will vote for Obama.

 

[PhantomR]

I'm confident Obama will win but in really interested how the house and senate plays out.

Here in Washington state the Senate race isn't even REMOTELY close. Maria Cantwell is polling around 65-70% right now.


The congressional races are a different matter though. I think Koster is going to lose to DelBene. The latest remarks he made on rape were pretty bad PR for him.

 

[Samyy]

Good luck America, still having a hard time understanding how Romney is actually in a position where he could lead the country. I guess America is way more different to Canada than I thought :/.

 

[massoluk]

Speaking for the rest of the world, please for the gods' sake, please please please don't pick Mitt Romney. We're pretty content with your current choice. Many of us are in love with him even.

 

[teruterubozu]

2010, where Silver pretty much nailed the election? You also can't compare a mid-term to a presidential election

Oh yeah, I know the two can't be compared, but the whole GOP talking point today seems to be "they're using 2008 turnout numbers" - but they were perfectly fine with the polling narrative in 2010 for a big Republican turnout. So polls can accurately predict turnouts in 2010 but not in 2012? LOL

 

[Journeywalker]

In the postmortem on 538, I'd love to see an evaluation of the numbers with/without each adjustment, to give a quantitative justification. I agree with the reasoning behind each adjustment, but it would be nice to see how each adjustment makes the model quantitatively better.

In recent posts, Nate seems to be defending his calculations (especially the model's adjustments, or "secret sauce") from political attacks. As a geeky statistician would, he interprets this as a mathematical criticism of his model by acknowledging that complexity can result in over-fitting.

The problem with complexity isn't overfitting, it's having to explain the added complexity/subjectivity (however small and transparent they may be) to people that look at the output and immediately suspect something's wrong with the formulas or data.

Some of these people are a lost cause: they want their reality to be everyone's reality so much that they can't fathom the idea that an apolitical and accurate model contradicts that reality.

The goal is to make the model accurate and simple enough so that the rest of the audience understands enough to dismiss the people that are trying make the audience dismiss the model.

 

[PhantomR]

oh that's what I forgot, an overview of the important initiatives that may pass across the country

I am most interested in the gay marriage initiatives and, as you said, marijuana legalization.

We were talking about this in Seattle-GAF


Both 502- Marijuana legalization

and R74 - Gay Marriage


Have been consistently polling in favor for months now. They're going to pass

 

[TacticalFox88]

You are truly bananas.

I want to believe SO HARD