Obama's swan song.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
- Status
Obama's swan song.
teruterubozu
Member
Maine has same sex marriage on the ballot - Prop. 1
What other states have same sex marriage on the ballot?
What other states have same sex marriage on the ballot?
But in Oregon... =(We were talking about this in Seattle-GAF
Both 502- Marijuana legalization
and R74 - Gay Marriage
Have been consistently polling in favor for months now. They're going to pass
FFFFFFFFFF
DUFFMCWALIN
Member
Go Gary Johnson!
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I'd change that more to:
Spec's swing-state classification:
Likely Romney: NC
Lean Romney: FL
Too close to call: CO & VA
Lean Obama: OH, IA, NH,
Likely Obama: MI, NV, PA, WI
Solid Romney: The other McCain 2008 states, IN, Nebraska 2nd District
Solid Obama: The other Obama 2008 states
And I'm kinda pessimistic so my electoral prediction map gives CO & VA to Romney . . . but Obama still wins.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Given that the democratic majority of the senate and house in obama's first 2 years didnt usher in the apocalypse, I'll give the republicans the benefit of the doubt that it would be similar in scope. But that's becuase i consider both parties equally capable of the same magnitude of partisan bickering when their side is "losing".
speculawyer
Member
Go Gary Johnson!
Why didn't Ron Paul endorse him?
Because Ron Paul is about Ron Paul. And later transferring the franchise to Rand Paul.
TacticalFox88
Banned
False equivalence...why....WHY?
My exact prediction as well. Except there's a slight chance of Florida going blue it seems.In swing states where Obama has a GOTV machine so good that nothing in history comes close (per Time's Mark Halperin on Charlie Rose, on the night of the last debate), I'm guessing that turnout will still be very, very high.
But in non-swing states? I could definitely see turnout being somewhat down from those highs of 2008. And I suspect that nationwide enthusiasm numbers' averaging effects hide that swing state drive.
We'll see. I'm thankful that my candidate's hopes are not hinging-upon an "all-the-pollsters-are-wrong" argument.
...
And I'll stick with my prediction:
Delusibeta
Banned
Bluntly, have you being paying attention for the last four years? Republicans are far, far worse at partisan bickering. I think the Republican party are going to go nuts if they get a majority in both houses.
Maine, Maryland, Washington. Minnesota has an amendment to define marriage as only a union between a man and a woman.
I'm really worried about how this election is going to turn out. Around here (Upstate NY) all the old people are ready to vote and hate Obama and all the people my age are undecided and aren't going to vote because of that. I know NY won't go Romney but it makes me really nervous for swing states.
If an Obama win is even remotely dependent on him achieving anything near a 2008 excitement level, than that's definitely not going to happen. The "throw the bums out" crowd is going to be voting in full force this time, and Obama is one of the bums in this election. The hope and change mantra doesn't really work twice, even if the shit that didn't work out isn't entirely his fault. The economy still sucks and there are plenty of people that want to punish somebody for that.
Still, he might not need that kind of turnout. Seems like there is a lot of argument among pundits on different sides about how to read these polls, and I could definitely see a scenario where he wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.
In the end, it's really hard for me to imagine America voting for Mitt Romney as president. He's just so terrible as a candidate with all his flip-flopping and shit. It's too much, I think. He's not going to get in.
Still, he might not need that kind of turnout. Seems like there is a lot of argument among pundits on different sides about how to read these polls, and I could definitely see a scenario where he wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.
In the end, it's really hard for me to imagine America voting for Mitt Romney as president. He's just so terrible as a candidate with all his flip-flopping and shit. It's too much, I think. He's not going to get in.
Shouta
Member
We were talking about this in Seattle-GAF
Both 502- Marijuana legalization
and R74 - Gay Marriage
Have been consistently polling in favor for months now. They're going to pass
Both are polling well right now too so both are likely to pass come Tuesday. It's been discussed on the news for months now here.
I'm a bit worried about the Minnesota proposition. A lot of my friends (who tend to be science majors) are very much in the "vote no" camp, but I'm seeing a lot of "vote yes" signs pop up around the Minnetonka/Edina area. :\ I'd like to hope my state is progressive enough to not pass such an amendment...
We were talking about this in Seattle-GAF
It would mage such a
Both 502- Marijuana legalizati
Have been consistently polling in favor for months now. They're going to pass
Colorado has too for MJ. The vote will come down to women of course.
Having two states go legal at once would make a huge statement.
Since I'm not a Nelson family, my viewership counts for nothing. Kinda like most voters in non swing states.
Prop 8 in California during 2008 was such a fucking travesty. A blemish on an otherwise good night. Something like 53% yes to 47% no. Please be better than us, Minnesota.
Journeywalker
Member
Dear Fellow Americans,
Please do not let the following become reality:
Obama'd: A Brief History
1. Hire the black guy to clean up the mess. He's clearly promising more than he can deliver, but he's the best candidate for the job.
2. Buy the black guy bottles of pneumonia as a cleaning solution.
3. Complain when the black guy tries to solve the problem of people getting sick.
4. Promote the guys in Supply Management that bought the pneumonia.
5. Fire the black guy because he didn't clean up the mess fast enough.
(Inspired by the Cheezburger meme and an Onion article from 11/5/2008)
Please do not let the following become reality:
Obama'd: A Brief History
1. Hire the black guy to clean up the mess. He's clearly promising more than he can deliver, but he's the best candidate for the job.
2. Buy the black guy bottles of pneumonia as a cleaning solution.
3. Complain when the black guy tries to solve the problem of people getting sick.
4. Promote the guys in Supply Management that bought the pneumonia.
5. Fire the black guy because he didn't clean up the mess fast enough.
(Inspired by the Cheezburger meme and an Onion article from 11/5/2008)
Apparently all of the polls regarding this amendment show a completely even split. Every single poll I've found has those voting yes and voting no within the margin of error.
Obama has a 5pt lead in the final poll for the Des Moines Register (47-42). The Register endorsed Mitt Romney (Obama in 08).
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/...wa-gives-edge-to-obama/article?nclick_check=1
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/...wa-gives-edge-to-obama/article?nclick_check=1
Polling numbers for the MN amendment are here:
http://www.minnpost.com/braublog/2012/11/obama-romney-minnesota-gay-marriage-polls-crosstabs
It needs to get over 50% to pass.
teruterubozu
Member
Nielsen, that's Nielsen.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I don't get why GOP dudes are all about complaining that polls are biased against Republicans. There's no evidence to suggest that at all - in fact, most of the 2008 state polls underestimated the likelihood of Democratic turnout.
If there was an obvious bias against Republicans and/or independents, I'm pretty sure Silver and Wang would have you know, noticed it in the 2008 and 2010 results.
If there was an obvious bias against Republicans and/or independents, I'm pretty sure Silver and Wang would have you know, noticed it in the 2008 and 2010 results.
Apparently all of the polls regarding this amendment show a completely even split. Every single poll I've found has those voting yes and voting no within the margin of error.
Whatever happens, take comfort you'll be on the good side of history. Tolerance and acceptance of gay rights is steadily trending upwards, and there's no way these amendments will stay forever.
That would just make him look petty and egotistical, even though they totally deserve it. There's really no winning with them.
Delusibeta
Banned
That's the thing: GOP dudes want the GOP nomination to win, while all of the polls seems to suggest that the GOP will lose. Are they going to accept it with good grace? Fuck no, they're going to bitch and spin and accuse the polls of being biased and/or rigged.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You guys make it sound like Nate Silver is the only one saying Obama will win. Plenty of other prediction models/betting markets show an even higher chance of winning. I guess Nate is just the symbol of statistics versus pundit bullshit.
Thank apple auto correct for that one. :/
Journeywalker
Member
That's why Nate has to hire surrogates--to gloat for him.
Devolution
Member
The way the maps have been looking the last several years it seems like the coasts and the midwest should be two separate countries.
Nate's the only one getting called out.
The House decides the Pres if that where to happen. So in that case the 2010 election would have ultimately determined the outcome.
rohlfinator
Member
Seriously, this. Just getting the house majority was enough for Republicans to start doing stupid shit like trying to redefine the word rape and having daily readings from the constitution. Say what you will about Democratic partisanship, at least they are trying to solve actual problems that exist.
I'm happy that this is going to end soon -- as endlessly entertaining as the primaries and the general have been I'm getting weary. Plus, I've been getting at least 4 mailers a day about our local elections.
For local predictions, I think Claire Macaskill is going to win, feeling more confident about her chances than I was earlier in the year, even with Akin-Rape-Gate. The fact of the matter is, even despite Akin's message being more receptive to Missourian's he's, quite frankly, run out of money. I'm getting more mail and seeing more ads for the state senate seat (Lebenke vs Sifton) than I am from Akin. Meanwhile, Macaskill's been hammering him with 'dat money gap.
For local predictions, I think Claire Macaskill is going to win, feeling more confident about her chances than I was earlier in the year, even with Akin-Rape-Gate. The fact of the matter is, even despite Akin's message being more receptive to Missourian's he's, quite frankly, run out of money. I'm getting more mail and seeing more ads for the state senate seat (Lebenke vs Sifton) than I am from Akin. Meanwhile, Macaskill's been hammering him with 'dat money gap.
Only if you read them foolishly as all or nothing electoral maps. This kind of thinking is as bad as those bush era "look at all the land (represented by counties voting for bush) that is inhabited by true americans!"
truth is, the map is pretty purple.
Incoming House.
Yeah, Nate's model is actually the conservative one. I keep forgetting that fact.
teruterubozu
Member
Zoom in closer and you'll see that the country should really be split between rural and urban.
Angelus Errare
Banned
We were talking about this in Seattle-GAF
Both 502- Marijuana legalization
and R74 - Gay Marriage
Have been consistently polling in favor for months now. They're going to pass
If 502 passes I'll move there.
NOT.EVEN.JOKING!
I will pack up everything and move.
This is true, but Nate's the only on getting the hate. He's become the 'face' of poll aggregation/modeling, so he's getting the most attention and, thus, hate.
Devolution
Member
Even better. Blue gets all of the cities and the rural parts that just feed off the wealth blue areas generate can have their shitty third world theocracy they want so bad.
Nate is the only one right now coming under attack by the media.
Yea, worried about it as well. The polling has it pretty much even, which is worrisome...
teruterubozu
Member
Nate's been getting specific hate from Scarborough, Brooks, Drudge, Hannity and others.
- Status