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[Willco]

... Yes? Here are the Friday numbers according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, with The Longest Yard and Star Wars virtually battling for the number one spot. I can't believe it's the close and it's probably going to mean a huge drop off for Star Wars.

FRIDAY BOX OFFICE ESTIMATES

1 THE LONGEST YARD
3,634 $15,750,000

2 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH
3,663 $15,470,000

3 MADAGASCAR
4,131 $14,030,000

4 MONSTER-IN-LAW
3,230 $2,690,000

5 KICKING AND SCREAMING
2,966 $1,270,000

6 CRASH
1,680 $1,250,000

7 UNLEASHED
1,419 $501,000

8 THE INTERPRETER
1,171 $468,000

9 KINGDOM OF HEAVEN
1,328 $427,000

10 HOUSE OF WAX
1,635 $388,000

 

[pestul]

... Yes? Here are the Friday numbers according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, with The Longest Yard and Star Wars virtually battling for the number one spot. I can't believe it's the close and it's probably going to mean a huge drop off for Star Wars.

FRIDAY BOX OFFICE ESTIMATES

1 THE LONGEST YARD
3,634 $15,750,000

2 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH
3,663 $15,470,000

3 MADAGASCAR
4,131 $14,030,000

4 MONSTER-IN-LAW
3,230 $2,690,000

5 KICKING AND SCREAMING
2,966 $1,270,000

6 CRASH
1,680 $1,250,000

7 UNLEASHED
1,419 $501,000

8 THE INTERPRETER
1,171 $468,000

9 KINGDOM OF HEAVEN
1,328 $427,000

10 HOUSE OF WAX
1,635 $388,000

Something tells me that Madagascar will finish on top after the long weekend.

 

[Gorgie]

This doesn't surprise me, the dropoff for Star Wars appears great in the theatre I work.

 

[olimario]

Bullshit? My theatre is a pretty good representation of the box office, usually, and Madagascar showings are all sold out.

 

[Andy787]

I was actually talking to someone earlier and guessed that The Longest Yard would do 40-50 million and possibly overtake Star Wars this weekend. Just seems like the combination of Sandler/Rock and the promos would really hook the Summer movie demographic. I'm kind of sad that it seems to be the case, though, because I enjoyed RotS a lot more than I expected, but oh well. Looks like Sony (well, and MTV pictures) is going to have at least one hit this Summer, and they can certainly use it considering their output recently, XXX in particular.

 

[Memles]

Well, when you look at the weekend on the whole, these numbers are very interesting.

By all accounts, the holiday weekend will go to Star Wars or Madagascar. They will do much better Monday business, although Longest Yard can expect fairly good numbers itself, and might well win the three-day.

When it comes to Revenge of the Sith, this is actually the highest a second weekend has been for any of the prequels, which is a little bit surprising, especially since it's first weekend was so huge. So, while Star Wars will be experiencing a dropoff from the $108 Million last weekend (Duh) I'd expect it to come in at about $50 for the three day, likely $60-$65 Million over the four days. And, considering how much money it's made, that's pretty damn impressive. It's next weekend's dropoff that will be most interesting, since there's no holiday to boost its total.

Madagascar's opening should be fairly hefty, likely passing ROTS over four days. Robots saw a 50% increase on Saturday on a non-holiday weekend, so it could well reach $60-$70 Million over four days.

When I really think about it...any ONE of these films could win the box office. I think all will break $50 Million over four days, which is pretty damn impressive. Unless Star Wars and Madagascar really separate themselves with the increased business of the Matinee crowds, Longest Yard has as good a chance as they do, almost.

Final Predictions
Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith - $68 Million
The Longest Yard - $53 Million
Madagascar - $70 Million
Rest - Shit all.

 

[jett]

Bullshit? My theatre is a pretty good representation of the box office, usually, and Madagascar showings are all sold out.

:lol You're an idiot.

 

[olimario]

:lol You're an idiot.

What in my post was stupid, jett? Me questioning the estimates or me provided anecdotal evidence to the contrary of the estimates? At my theatre no showing of The Longest Yard were sold out and every showing of Madagascar was. Not only that, but we have 4 prints of Madagascar and only 2 of the Longest Yard.

 

[explodet]

So is Kingdom of Heaven now considered a bomb, or was it a bomb on the week it was released?

 

[siege]

So is Kingdom of Heaven now considered a bomb, or was it a bomb on the week it was released?

It's close to $200 million worldwide.

 

[FoneBone]

When it comes to Revenge of the Sith, this is actually the highest a second weekend has been for any of the prequels, which is a little bit surprising, especially since it's first weekend was so huge. So, while Star Wars will be experiencing a dropoff from the $108 Million last weekend (Duh) I'd expect it to come in at about $50 for the three day, likely $60-$65 Million over the four days. And, considering how much money it's made, that's pretty damn impressive. It's next weekend's dropoff that will be most interesting, since there's no holiday to boost its total.

Yeah, but the previous two movies didn't drop nearly as much (percentage-wise) their second weekend. (EDIT: I may be mistaken about that, actually...) Though I'm not sure that that means anything, what with the increasing emphasis on frontloading.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I was thinking *bzzt* no. Can't believe he did, ouch.

 

[Memles]

Yeah, but the previous two movies didn't drop nearly as much (percentage-wise) their second weekend. (EDIT: I may be mistaken about that, actually...) Though I'm not sure that that means anything, what with the increasing emphasis on frontloading.

I think to an extent you're right; it is the highest percentage drop of the three prequels, Friday to Friday. It's about a 57% drop, but Attack of the Clones had 47% three years ago (That would have been gargantuan then, I bet). It has to be expect to incur a huge drop, but at the same time I might have actually expected a movie with THAT much box office in its first four days to perform even "worse". I mean, it's real business this week will be people who wanted to avoid the first week rush.

We'll see...but you're right, percentage wise it's weak.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What in my post was stupid, jett? Me questioning the estimates or me provided anecdotal evidence to the contrary of the estimates?

Questioning the estimates isn't bad. Providing anecdotal evidence to the contrary isn't bad. But calling the estimates bullshit due to your piece of anecdotal evidence does take things a bit far.

 

[pestul]

Just got back from Madagascar.. to my surprise it was probably the lightest of the titles this evening (it was the late evening show however). RoTS & TLY were packed in comparison. Still think Madagascar will squeak out the 4-day. <-- not that I give two shits.

 

[olimario]

Questioning the estimates isn't bad. Providing anecdotal evidence to the contrary isn't bad. But calling the estimates bullshit due to your piece of anecdotal evidence does take things a bit far.

I didn't call it bullshit. I said 'bullshit?'.

 

[GaimeGuy]

So what's the estimated total for RotS since release? (just the US figures, I don't want to go through a bunch of currency exchange conversions)

 

[Dan]

So what's the estimated total for RotS since release? (just the US figures, I don't want to go through a bunch of currency exchange conversions)

$215,913,000 through Friday.

 

[GaimeGuy]

$215,913,000 through Friday.

Holy shit.

 

[Rorschach]

Questioning the estimates isn't bad. Providing anecdotal evidence to the contrary isn't bad. But calling the estimates bullshit due to your piece of anecdotal evidence does take things a bit far.

Don't question Olimario! He's got NASA crunching the numbers!

I wouldn't be surprised if Madagascar came pulled in 1st place due to the holiday.

 

[Drozmight]

Rock is in two of those movies... he's going to be rich.... er.

 

[Guileless]

I do watch ESPN a lot, but I can't count how many Longest Yard ads I've seen. They must have put a lot into marketing. Bill Simmons didn't like it at all and I have no interest in seeing it until it's on HBO, although if you get to see Courtney Cox's titties then that's something I guess.

 

[borghe]

Madagascar won't hit number 1 for the weekend.

and willco needs to make sure there aren't any posters around who can look at past indicators to call him on his bullshit.

the problem you have is that business for star wars will be pretty consistent this weekend (as well as madagascar). however sandler will likely take a hit on saturday (as opposed to the typical climb on saturday) as sandler pics are VERY friday loaded on opening weekend. also, sandler will have virtually NO box office on monday, when all of his demographic will be out drinking and grilling. however the dork and family demographic will behitting star wars, as well as people who are still just getting to it the first time to avoid the crowds from last weekend, and the family demographic will behuge for madagascar.

anyone with even a casual knowledge of box office histories can easily tell you it will be

star wars
longest yard
madagascar

just like we could have told you longest yard would be first on friday.

troll better willco, or find a forum where your ignorant claims can go unchallenged.

edit - as for star wars' huge dropoff, that really is little indication of the movie itself. the fact that its previous weekend was so huge and it now has two huge releases (both wider than star wars) to face off against indicates that it's dropoff would be larger. however, an opening weekend dropoff is not indicative necessarily of it's legs, especially in the summer movie season and it is still roughly on pace with AOTC while at a much higher dollar rate so far.

 

[Willco]

Troll better? I posted the fucking box office estimates from Friday. Dear god, rabid Star Wars fans are the worst.

 

[tetsuoxb]

Fox was saying last week they never thought they had a chance at number one memorial day weekend, so for them to be this close so far is pretty awesome.

 

[Memles]

star wars
longest yard
madagascar

edit - as for star wars' huge dropoff, that really is little indication of the movie itself. the fact that its previous weekend was so huge and it now has two huge releases (both wider than star wars) to face off against indicates that it's dropoff would be larger. however, an opening weekend dropoff is not indicative necessarily of it's legs, especially in the summer movie season and it is still roughly on pace with AOTC while at a much higher dollar rate so far.

I think you might be underestimating Madagascar, to be honest with you. If it had been more of a $5 Million split on Friday I'd concur, but it was only $2 Million, and I fully expect Madagascar's Saturday, Sunday and Monday takes to outdo Longest Yard by much more than that. For an animated film to grab $14 Million on a Friday is fairly telling, in my views, and I think that Longest Yard will end up falling to a very respectable third.

It'll be close between the other two, but I just don't see Madagascar in 3rd, not with how strong its Friday was.

 

[borghe]

Troll better? I posted the fucking box office estimates from Friday. Dear god, rabid Star Wars fans are the worst.

oh NO. I MISREAD WILLCO!! HOW COULD THAT HAVE HAPPENED!!!?!?

seriously.. everything you say about star wars is some attempted troll. I'm not pointing out anything here that anyone else on this board doesn't already know so stop acting so fucking indignant.

so yeah, troll better next time. because your box office observation skills seem to be about as adept as your star wars trolling skills.

 

[borghe]

I think you might be underestimating Madagascar, to be honest with you. If it had been more of a $5 Million split on Friday I'd concur, but it was only $2 Million, and I fully expect Madagascar's Saturday, Sunday and Monday takes to outdo Longest Yard by much more than that. For an animated film to grab $14 Million on a Friday is fairly telling, in my views, and I think that Longest Yard will end up falling to a very respectable third.

It'll be close between the other two, but I just don't see Madagascar in 3rd, not with how strong its Friday was.

you are absolutely right. madagascar could take second for the weekend. I am basing it on the fact though that I think while madagascar will take longest yard on saturday and monday, longest yard will still maintain a bigger lead across friday and sunday. but it will be extremely close. what is even funnier is that star wars COULD actually remain in second place on each day of the long weekend and still take first place overall. that would be one oif the more interesting weekends the box office has seen in a while.

but of course none of this will stop the box office from falling year-over-year for like the 14th or 15th week in a row.. unreal.

 

[Willco]

oh NO. I MISREAD WILLCO!! HOW COULD THAT HAVE HAPPENED!!!?!?

seriously.. everything you say about star wars is some attempted troll. I'm not pointing out anything here that anyone else on this board doesn't already know so stop acting so fucking indignant.

Have you lost your damn mind? I post Box Office crap all the time OMG IT IS A STAR WARS CONSPIRACY! Like I care how much bank Star Wars makes. That's crazy.

so yeah, troll better next time. because your box office observation skills seem to be about as adept as your star wars trolling skills.

Uh, all I said is that The Longest Yard and Episode III are virtually battling it out for the top spot, and I didn't even include Madagascar into the mix. I fail to see how that is a troll and/or wrong going by Friday estimates.

 

[Kung Fu Jedi]

I read a report a few days ago basically saying the box office numbers this weekend would be interesting as Star Wars, The Longest Yard, and Madagascar could all canabalize each others numbers. It is likely that most people will only see one of those three movies this weekend, so they have to choose. Also, many movie goers will have already seen Star Wars, so if the numbers are even close, it's still a testament to the drawing power of Revenge of the Sith.

When comparing ATOC to ROTS it's important to look at the competition on the second weekend. If clones didn't have much released, but Revenge has stiff competition from two films, it makes a big difference on their second week total. Hell, if clones only had competition from one other film, whie Revenge had two, it can make the difference on what the take is. Lets face it, Sandler is a good box office draw, and an animated film from Dreamworks, on a holiday weekend, is something to contend with.

 

[DJ_Tet]

stop acting so fucking indignant.

That seriously sums it up.

 

[Rorschach]

:lol WILLCO THEY'RE ON TO YOU!!!

Spoiler

^this is both the worst and best bail out picture evar...wtf

 

[Willco]

Yeah, it'll definitely be interesting. It's pretty funny if Spielberg's studio bumps off Star Wars in its second weekend, though. I honestly didn't know Sandler still had this kind of drawing power, but - whoopity doo! - it seems so.

That is the worst picture ever posted on the Internet, Rorschach. For reals!

 

[borghe]

When comparing ATOC to ROTS it's important to look at the competition on the second weekend. If clones didn't have much released, but Revenge has stiff competition from two films, it makes a big difference on their second week total. Hell, if clones only had competition from one other film, whie Revenge had two, it can make the difference on what the take is. Lets face it, Sandler is a good box office draw, and an animated film from Dreamworks, on a holiday weekend, is something to contend with.

AOTC had Enough, Insomnia, and Spirit (Dreamworks animated movie) to deal with in its second weekend. TPM had the 13th Bom.. err Floor, and Notting Hill. Needless to say none of the other two prequels had this kind of competition in their second week. And ROTS is STILL holding up!! Against Sandler and Shrek Studio (Dreamworks PDI)

I honestly didn't know Sandler still had this kind of drawing power, but - whoopity doo! - it seems so.

sandler is in his late 80's chevy chase mode right now.. people will flock to him because of the great movies he used to have. Judging from what I've been hearing (and its RT score) I expect Longest Yard to drop VERY quickly. and while it will still be profitable and still get him work, I really think the "numbers" game of the movie will hurt sandlers already failing cred. I certainly expect this to be the last summer headlining release starring sandler.

 

[Spike Spiegel]

Saturday Estimates:

1. Revenge of the Sith $20,820,000
2. Madagascar $18,170,000
3. The Longest Yard $17,050,000
4. Monster-in-Law $3,490,000
5. Crash $1,755,000

 

[Willco]

Wow, it is going to be CLOSE.

 

[borghe]

Saturday Estimates:

1. Revenge of the Sith $20,820,000
2. Madagascar $18,170,000
3. The Longest Yard $17,050,000
4. Monster-in-Law $3,490,000
5. Crash $1,755,000

well, I am right on madagascar so far, and still think longest yard will beat it tomorrow...

ROTS is definitely taking a hit this weekend. that sucks. although ROTS will hold up next weekend (with Cinderella Man) much better.

 

[Memles]

Longest Yard is at $50.1 for the weekend according to predictions, so Madgascar will more or less need to have NO dropoff for it to win over three days...but I'm sure it will win over four days.

In the meantime, ROTS is more or less home free in terms of winning both the Three-Day and Four-Day weekends.

Edit: Just noticed that the Friday estimated for Longest Yard went up 800k...that's why it seems so much higher than Magascar compared to what I thought it should have been.

 

[Mrbob]

When is the last time three movies hit over $50 million each for a three day weekend and $60 million each for a four day weekend?

 

[Meier]

I wouldn't imagine it's ever happened. There were two last year with Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow which both did over 85 for the 4-day.. but the next closest was 15. Revenge of the Sith and Madagascar should have very solid Sunday holds but the likley order will be Sith, Yard, Madagascar for the 3-day and Sith, Madagascar, Yard for the 4-day.

 

[olimario]

It's amazing how things vary from theatre to theatre. We have Madagascar on 4 screens that are sold out at every showing. 2 of those are our largest screens (seating wise).

The longest yard is playing on one big screen and one small screen. Their showings have a decent amount of people, but it's not even close to being full.

Star Wars is on 4 screens and has slightly more people than the Longest Yard in each showing.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Star Wars will win the weekend, by about $5-8m.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Star Wars will win the weekend, by about $5-8m.

As it should.

Best star wars ever.

 

[Barrage]

I wouldn't imagine it's ever happened. There were two last year with Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow which both did over 85 for the 4-day.. but the next closest was 15. Revenge of the Sith and Madagascar should have very solid Sunday holds but the likley order will be Sith, Yard, Madagascar for the 3-day and Sith, Madagascar, Yard for the 4-day.

According to Box Office Mojo, that weekend you mentioned(the one with Shrek 2 and TDAT) is the highest grossing weekend ever. The third movie(Troy) made $11 million. So you're right when you say this will be the first time ever three movies made over $50 million.

 

[borghe]

When is the last time three movies hit over $50 million each for a three day weekend and $60 million each for a four day weekend?

while it is great for each of the films to hit $50M, it should be noted that this weekend will STILL be under last years record weekend of $238M. While arguably last year's movie selection was comparably better than this years (overall), one really has to wonder with the great dropoffs movies are starting to see after 3 weeks if the movie industry doesn't have a point with DVD sales.

Theaters HAVE to start lowering prices. It is the only thing I think they can do to compete with Hollywood's own canibalization of the industry with DVD and of course the growing effect of piracy. Lower ticket prices by enough of a percentage that you can see a larger return back on concessions. Who cares if they are now only seeing $%3.50 per ticket sold when they are selling 66% more popcorn and soda? they keep trying to fight declining attendance and weaker product with higher prices... that hardly seems what would be typical to do in such a case.

just my thoughts on the problem. well, and putting out good movies every once in a while certainly couldn't hurt.

 

[Mrbob]

Well it is a good point. I don't see nearly as many movies than I used too because of cost. It usually costs me between 20-30 bucks to see a movie in the theater between myself and my GF. I can buy the DVD on release for $14.99 and watch it as many times as I want with my TV and home theater system. I still see the big movies in the theater but not nearly as many as I used too.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Well it is a good point. I don't see nearly as many movies than I used too because of cost. It usually costs me between 20-30 bucks to see a movie in the theater between myself and my GF. I can buy the DVD on release for $14.99 and watch it as many times as I want with my TV and home theater system. I still see the big movies in the theater but not nearly as many as I used too.

yeah im the same way. Nowadays i usually only bother to go to the theatre to catch the really big movies. I think i've only been to the movies like 3 times this year, and the only movies left this summer i really want to see are Batman and War of the Worlds. On top of cost, its too much of a hassel to gather a bunch of friends together, make sure everyone wants to go at the same time, and then you get the the theatre and get stuck next to some kids that won't shut the fuck up, or in a theatre with crappy seats or something. Most stuff i have no problem waiting for DVD for.

 

[Kung Fu Jedi]

Remember when you could pretty much see all the major films that came out in a Summer because they were so well spaced out that they really didn't infringe on each other? That has certainly changed. For instance, if you didn't get a chance to see Sith last weekend, you now have it, Longest Yard and Madagascar to see as well. Throw in Cinderella Man next weekend, with Batman Begins and War of the Worlds looming, and it makes it tough to keep up with all the films. I'm down to seeing the major movies and that's about it. Batman Begins is about the only thing left for me to get excited about this Summer, although Cinderella Man looks good as well. War of the Worlds does nothing for me, although Spielberg is usually enough to get my ass in the seat.

 

[isamu]

where are the estimates for the whole weekend? And what the hell is madagascar or whatever?

 

[Spike Spiegel]

It's Memorial Day weekend. Final estimates probably won't show until Monday or Tuesday.


Also: Madagascar