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WEEKEND B.O. -- Can Sandler topple STAR WARS? Survey says...
- Thread starter Willco
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SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
Star Wars III has the number 1 ten-day opening of all time, beating last year's Spider-Man 2 by almost $11M -- and doing that in 489 fewer theaters. So far, through 12 days of release (including estimates through today), Episode III is almost $70M ahead of Episode II, $64M ahead of Episode I, and $39M ahead of Return of the King.
Sunday's estimates:
Episode III: $18,750,000
Longest Yard: $16,300,000
Madagascar: $14,900,000
Monday's estimates:
Episode III: $15,650,000
Madagascar: $13,900,000
Longest Yard: not listed yet
It's important to note that Episode III is in 468 fewer theaters than Madagascar, and is one hour longer. That makes EpIII's lead over Madagascar that much more impressive. It's also almost 44 minutes longer than The Longest Yard (although it is in 29 more theaters).
Sunday's estimates:
Episode III: $18,750,000
Longest Yard: $16,300,000
Madagascar: $14,900,000
Monday's estimates:
Episode III: $15,650,000
Madagascar: $13,900,000
Longest Yard: not listed yet
It's important to note that Episode III is in 468 fewer theaters than Madagascar, and is one hour longer. That makes EpIII's lead over Madagascar that much more impressive. It's also almost 44 minutes longer than The Longest Yard (although it is in 29 more theaters).
Outcast2004
Banned
DMczaf said:
But...but PIRACY IS KILLING THE THEATRES!!! Panic and bloodshed in the streets if we don't stop this piracy madness! Tom Cruise will have to hold off on his 37th Prosche if we don't stop this craziness! The actors need to have their mansions!!!
Please! Seems like the movie business is as strong as it ever was...
I'd think a $200,000,000 weekend at the BO kinda disporves the whole priacy theory.
Ninja Scooter
Member
DMczaf said:
thats w/o counting monday? Damn, what kind of $$$ do big movies usually bring in on Memorial day?
Kabuki Waq
Member
Outcast2004 said:
its still 5.6% less then last year.
Outcast2004
Banned
GhaleonEB said:
along with..*shock* rising ticket prices. It's not really affordable to go to the movies any more.
For example, it's 9$ a ticket here for a movie, first run after 6 PM. so nearly $20 for JUST THE MOVIE, then factor in consessions (this is where theatres make the money anyway), you might as well mortgage your house. If you can't afford it, why even bother going?
On the other hand, for close to the same amount you can go buy a game and get MANY hours of entertainment and not just 2 to 2 1/2. There's a lot more distractions out there for you entertainment dollar.
I really don't thinkt he movie industry is hurting at all. One thing that must be figured in is DVD sales of said product as well.
Anymore, the theatrical release is secondary to the DVD release. That's where the money is.
Ideally, you want to make just your budget back in the theatres, then the pure profit from the DVD release.
As a whole though, this season will come out far ahead of last years. Mark my words.
I do have one solution for Hollywood, stop making so many SHIT movies.
Christoff Yurievich
Member
the problem doens't really affect the industry, sre, but it does afftect the people who work at the theaters. if no one is going to be watching movies, there's no reason to continue hiring people.Outcast2004 said:
of course, the theater businesses are to blame as well for opening so damn many theaters in a short span of time.
and then there's the advertising on top of rising ticket prices.
despite three movies doing over $60M this weekend, business will still be down around $10M from this weekend last year. the unfortunate truth is that the movie studios, when all is said and done, will still see around the same return on a movie (thanks to rental, PPV, and DVD sales). It is the theater owners taking it in the ass on this. And no, it has nothing to do with piracy. Movie studios are raising first run rental rates to combat lower attendance and thus theater owners are being forced to raise ticket prices and thus (sorry for the third thus) attendance is sontinuing to go down. Initially I thought the MPAA was smart enough to say "Hey, we might be losing a few tens of thousands of tickets from piracy, but maybe we should instead be looking at why we are losing the other few million tickets from theaters every week." Piracy seemed to be a non-factor and they looked at other areas. However now it seems the MPAA is going the same easy route as the RIAA and blaming piracy and videogames. Whatever they can do to avoid accepting any sort of responsibility at all.
By this time next year I am fully expecting to be paying almost $10 a ticket.. good thing we have 10 minutes of commercials before the trailers so that price isn't even higher!!!!!
By this time next year I am fully expecting to be paying almost $10 a ticket.. good thing we have 10 minutes of commercials before the trailers so that price isn't even higher!!!!!
galeninjapan
Banned
I guess $10 tickets are inevitable but i'll be damned if i would rather buy a movie that pay that much.
Outcast2004 said:
Yeah, that's what I was alluding to. Movies used to be a cheap date, now they're a big hit to the wallet - the value proposition just isn't there like it is with games. Also - despite the big three this weekend, if projections hold total box office will be down 5%from last year. Your words are marked.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
Hey, it's still a lot cheaper than going to a concert or a play
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
The point about the Passion of the Christ is a good one. I was watching Fox News earlier this weekend and they made the comment that if you take the Passion numbers out of the equation, that last year's box office is about the same as this years.
SteveMeister said:Hey, it's still a lot cheaper than going to a concert or a play
not really.. taking my girl to see Bright Eyes and to dinner next week and will likely spend the same as going to a movie and dinner. The concert tickets price is offset by the fact I dont have to spend an extra 20 bucks on food I could get for 3 bucks at 7-11.
Seriously, when I went to see Hitchhikers I spent nearly 20 bucks on popcorn, 2 drinks and some fucking reeces pieces. Thats fucking bullshit.
Warm Machine
Member
Recently in Canada we saw movie ticket prices drop. This year has been pretty bad for movie releases and quality. Normally the first 3 months of the year are a dumping ground for junk but I didn't expect it to be almost 5 months of junk. For me, there was nothing appealing out there until Kingdom of Heaven and Star Wars.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
StoOgE said:
So just go to a restaurant either before or after the movie. There's nobody forcing you to get food at the theater, and it's not like the exorbitant prices of movie food are anything new.
Kabuki Waq
Member
movie budgets are getting higher too.
REally anyone who doesnt sneak in food from other places has money to burn
I usually just grab a can of coke and then eat after the movie at some restaurant.
REally anyone who doesnt sneak in food from other places has money to burn
I usually just grab a can of coke and then eat after the movie at some restaurant.
SteveMeister said:
I dont get stuff when I go to movies alone.. but I dont want to seem cheap on a date (even though I am)...
plus, food prices are getting worse at theaters around here... when I worked at a theater (Jeez, 5 years ago) the same stuff would have cost about 12 bucks, its gone up at least 6 bucks in price since then.. I just think that the movie theater economic model is bullshit... but what are ya gonna do? I cant wait till the DVD hits.
How many movies can you absolutely not wait 3-5 months for on DVD? Seriously?StoOgE said:
I used to go to the theater 20-30 times a year, easy. But now with rising ticket prices, discourteous theater patrons, quick home video turnaround, and cheap DVD prices, well, I can wait for all but a select few films. Hell, factor in services like Netflix, and it's just smart to wait.
I'm not going to keep paying higher prices for a worse and worse service in comparison to the alternative form of viewing.
The economic model for the multiplex is going to have to change. Understandably, part of the problem is budgets, but that can be resolved by the Hollywood machine. A lot of those budgets get blown out of proportion by mainstream producers who just become lazy. The biggest problem are the unions which keep inflating budget costs and are the reason why a guy like Robert Rodriguez can film a flick like Sin City in Texas for a fraction of what it would cost in Hollywood.
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
Matlock said:
There are a lot of films that would love to lose momentum the way a Star Wars film does.
$70 million on your second weekend, with stiff competiition, after already banking $200 million. The horror! What will Lucas do! I don't think Mr. and Mrs. Smith has a chance. Maybe if it were Mr and Mrs Sith, but that's another story. Cinderella Man, on the other hand, will probably be the one to take it down. Ron Howard film with Russel Crowe with great buzz. Of course, it's going to be attrition that finally takes all these films down. Too many big budget films released at the same time. Someone's going to take it in the bank account. Hard.
if by serious dropoff... you mean outgrossing ROTK by $50 million and phantom menace by $80 million (#5 and #7 domestically) by day 12... then i seriously wonder about you
edit: ROTS is looking to earn up to 500~ million domestically, and will probably be the third movie to reach a billion dollars worldwide gross. It will probably tail off just under ROTK.
edit 2: this is an extrapolation of domestic / worldwide ratios of the PT. Uses opening weekend data and the data i used leans towards AOTC more than TPM.
If I used phantom menace's numbers... episode 3 would look like it'd be the first movie to challenge Titanic. But then again since TPM was star wars fans going nuts, not a large openinig but was quite long run... i think the numbers close to AOTC in terms of ratio and opening weekend is much more valid
edit: ROTS is looking to earn up to 500~ million domestically, and will probably be the third movie to reach a billion dollars worldwide gross. It will probably tail off just under ROTK.
edit 2: this is an extrapolation of domestic / worldwide ratios of the PT. Uses opening weekend data and the data i used leans towards AOTC more than TPM.
If I used phantom menace's numbers... episode 3 would look like it'd be the first movie to challenge Titanic. But then again since TPM was star wars fans going nuts, not a large openinig but was quite long run... i think the numbers close to AOTC in terms of ratio and opening weekend is much more valid
Willco said:
part of the problem is they make so many high budget movies hopeing for one star wars or matrix to make up for all the lost profits of the bombs.. when half the time any person on this forum can tell you a movie is going to bomb (umm, Fantastic Four anyone?)... they need to be more selective in their big budget movies, and fund smaller films more often that have lower overhead and a better chance at turning a profit.
ManaByte
Member
DopeyFish said:if by serious dropoff... you mean outgrossing ROTK by $50 million and phantom menace by $80 million (#5 and #7 domestically) by day 12... then i seriously wonder about you
edit: ROTS is looking to earn up to 500~ million domestically, and will probably be the third movie to reach a billion dollars worldwide gross. It will probably tail off just under ROTK.
edit 2: this is an extrapolation of domestic / worldwide ratios of the PT. Uses opening weekend data and the data i used leans towards AOTC more than TPM.
If I used phantom menace's numbers... episode 3 would look like it'd be the first movie to challenge Titanic. But then again since TPM was star wars fans going nuts, not a large openinig but was quite long run... i think the numbers close to AOTC in terms of ratio and opening weekend is much more valid
ROTS hasn't opened in Japan yet or the rest of Asia and Star Wars is always huge over there.
DopeyFish said:if by serious dropoff... you mean outgrossing ROTK by $50 million and phantom menace by $80 million (#5 and #7 domestically) by day 12... then i seriously wonder about you
edit: ROTS is looking to earn up to 500~ million domestically, and will probably be the third movie to reach a billion dollars worldwide gross. It will probably tail off just under ROTK.
If the trend continues, there's no way it will hit $500m. 50% declines add up FAST, and there's stiff competition coming in a few weeks (Smith, Batman, etc.). $400m, maybe.
GhaleonEB said:
Right now it's trending alongside TPM with already +80 million. That means it should probably hit $500 million domestic. star wars prequels domestic are 46 and 47% of worldwide.
So if we assume 500 million and we assume 46~47%, it has a very good chance of breaking 1 bil.
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