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WEEKEND B.O. -- Can Sandler topple STAR WARS? Survey says...
- Thread starter Willco
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DopeyFish said:
In total dollars it is trending that way, but it is dropping MUCH faster. The week over week declines for the first two weeks of release for each film vary wildly. TPM dropped 21% , AOTC dropped 40% and ROTS dropped 49% . This is significant because AOTC grossed 65% of it's total take in it's first 12 days of release. If Episode III follows this pattern, then it will gross $417m; given that it's dropping FASTER than Episode II I predict a lower total than that.
Dan said:
That's probably because the movies released up till now have fucking sucked, along with movie tickets getting to the point of pricing people out of bothering with theatres. But the movie industry (or music industry, or the TV industry, etc) never like to point the fingers at themselves.
And with the turnaround for movies hitting DVD is so quick, more and more people just say fuck paying 10 bucks plus extras to catch this, just wait four to six months for the DVD.
And the DVD market is a ridiculous source of income for the studios...I doubt the VHS market ever came close to it.
Kabuki Waq said:movie budgets are getting higher too.
REally anyone who doesnt sneak in food from other places has money to burn
I usually just grab a can of coke and then eat after the movie at some restaurant.
Yeah, I don't get what's up with you idiots...bring a backpack sneak in a few Mars bars or something. Theatres don't even check your bags, unlike sports arenas or concert venues. I've never paid for theatre food, and I'll be damned if I ever do.
DopeyFish said:
Oh don't you start...there's far too much competition for that notion to even be given a serious thought. If it can earn $450 million with the amount of competition that's about to land, I'd consider that incredibly impressive. $500 million is a big time stretch since we've seen just two movies hit that mark.
I keep saying about Titanic...it wasn't the early money that gave it it's impressive totals. It was it's ability to sustain itself over a period of four months. To make $16 million or more for 16 weeks is simply absurd. I don't think a lot of people appreciate that. Sith doesn't have a chance to do that with the height of the summer movie competition still waiting on the launching pad.
kIdMuScLe said:
If you look earlier in the thread or simply went to boxofficemojo you'll see that:
1. Revenge of the Sith, $70,750,000
2. Madagascar, $61,000,000
3. The Longest Yard, $60,000,000
4. Monster-in-Law, $11,075,000
5. Kicking and Screaming, $6,554,000
Tritroid
Member
Damn, and I'm sure Willco was praying for Eps III to be beaten. :lol Ah well, better pump up the PT trolling efforts in the latest SW thread Will!
Anyway, kudos to Eps III. Well deserved imo. I'm kinda shocked however that it's ahead of Episode I? That movie had so much 'wow' factor going for it since it was the first Star Wars in 20 years.
Anyway, kudos to Eps III. Well deserved imo. I'm kinda shocked however that it's ahead of Episode I? That movie had so much 'wow' factor going for it since it was the first Star Wars in 20 years.
people who are trending ROTS against TPM and AOTC are forgetting (as I pointed out on the first page) that the competition for ROTS is much tougher than either of those pics had.
TPM only had the following wide releases up to Austin Powers 2 THREE WEEKS LATER
The Love Letter
The 13th Floor
Notting Hill
Instinct
So not a whole lot of competition for 3.5 weeks for TPM
AOTC had the following movies:
Enough
Insomnia
Spirit
The Sum of All Fears
Undercover Brother
Bad Company
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood
until finally reaching Scooby-Doo and The Bourne Identity on June 14th. In retrospect, the fact that AOTC trended THAT poorly with TPM with arguably almost just as light a schedule for a week longer (4.5 weeks total) is just a testament to how "bad" AOTC really did.
In any case, trending against either movie is pointless. ROTS has received markedly better reviews, but at the same time has a much tougher schedule. What you could see is a dropoff similar to AOTC (because of the much busier summer this year compared to 2002) but instead of dropping off into nothing like AOTC did, you might see either a leveling at some point or even a resurgence late in the summer as new movie releases kind of dwindle. What is funny is if Lucas really wanted to, he could delay the DVD release until like next spring, and then rerelease ROTS this holiday season and make even more money... at least that is what I might do if I were him. Maybe the fall promotions we are already hearing about are in fact for a fall rerelease and not a DVD release.
"Don't miss your last chance to see Star Wars in the theater" or something like that.
TPM only had the following wide releases up to Austin Powers 2 THREE WEEKS LATER
The Love Letter
The 13th Floor
Notting Hill
Instinct
So not a whole lot of competition for 3.5 weeks for TPM
AOTC had the following movies:
Enough
Insomnia
Spirit
The Sum of All Fears
Undercover Brother
Bad Company
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood
until finally reaching Scooby-Doo and The Bourne Identity on June 14th. In retrospect, the fact that AOTC trended THAT poorly with TPM with arguably almost just as light a schedule for a week longer (4.5 weeks total) is just a testament to how "bad" AOTC really did.
In any case, trending against either movie is pointless. ROTS has received markedly better reviews, but at the same time has a much tougher schedule. What you could see is a dropoff similar to AOTC (because of the much busier summer this year compared to 2002) but instead of dropping off into nothing like AOTC did, you might see either a leveling at some point or even a resurgence late in the summer as new movie releases kind of dwindle. What is funny is if Lucas really wanted to, he could delay the DVD release until like next spring, and then rerelease ROTS this holiday season and make even more money... at least that is what I might do if I were him. Maybe the fall promotions we are already hearing about are in fact for a fall rerelease and not a DVD release.
"Don't miss your last chance to see Star Wars in the theater" or something like that.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
Good points borghe, but I'm still pretty surprised that ROTS managed to beat Madagascar. To be honest The Longest Yard did a lot better than I expected it to, but I was pretty sure that given the holiday weekend, the shorter running length, greater theater count and family focus, Madagascar would have owned the weekend.
I also think that some folks here are overestimating the appeal of Cinderella Man. It's just not blockbuster material. I'm sure it's going to be an excellent movie, but it's not the kind of film that makes $75M opening weekend. I expect Madagascar to claim the #1 spot next weekend, followed by ROTS and then Cinderella Man.
On the 10th, Mr and Mrs Smith is gonna be a flop. It just has that Ecks vs Sever vibe to it. If it makes more than $45M in the first weekend I'll be surprised. No, the next movie that's going to really open things up is Batman Begins on the 15th, and then of course War of the Worlds on the 29th.
I also think that some folks here are overestimating the appeal of Cinderella Man. It's just not blockbuster material. I'm sure it's going to be an excellent movie, but it's not the kind of film that makes $75M opening weekend. I expect Madagascar to claim the #1 spot next weekend, followed by ROTS and then Cinderella Man.
On the 10th, Mr and Mrs Smith is gonna be a flop. It just has that Ecks vs Sever vibe to it. If it makes more than $45M in the first weekend I'll be surprised. No, the next movie that's going to really open things up is Batman Begins on the 15th, and then of course War of the Worlds on the 29th.
I agree about Cinderella Man. It will have a solid opening, but it won't be a blockbuster. Hell, it's only opening in 2800 theaters.
Mr. and Mrs. Simth will live or die by reviews. By that weekend presumably Star Wars will be down to around $27-30M. Mr. and Mrs. Smith would have to flop pretty hard to not beat that.
Either way, against this weeks movies, I think Ep3 will fall comparably and still maintain the lead into next weekend (and likely over Cinderella Man also). By a week from Friday Mr. and Mrs. Smith would have to bomb SUPER hard (as in under $35M) to lose out on first place.
edit - after further looking at things I guarantee Cinderella man won't take first next week. 2800 theaters, and in a marketplace when a kid pic from the people who brought you Shrek 2 (a huge marketing boost) doesn't even do $12K over a holiday, I don't see Cinderella Man doing the requisite $15.5K per theater it needs to do (probably roughly $43M) to beat out Star Wars next week.
Mr. and Mrs. Simth will live or die by reviews. By that weekend presumably Star Wars will be down to around $27-30M. Mr. and Mrs. Smith would have to flop pretty hard to not beat that.
Either way, against this weeks movies, I think Ep3 will fall comparably and still maintain the lead into next weekend (and likely over Cinderella Man also). By a week from Friday Mr. and Mrs. Smith would have to bomb SUPER hard (as in under $35M) to lose out on first place.
edit - after further looking at things I guarantee Cinderella man won't take first next week. 2800 theaters, and in a marketplace when a kid pic from the people who brought you Shrek 2 (a huge marketing boost) doesn't even do $12K over a holiday, I don't see Cinderella Man doing the requisite $15.5K per theater it needs to do (probably roughly $43M) to beat out Star Wars next week.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
FoneBone said:
Excuse me, but why would that be "wishful thinking"? I have nothing at stake one way or another in the movie's success or failure. I like Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie. The trailer made the movie look entertaining.
But I don't think it has been that heavily marketed, and I just have a feeling that it's not going to be all that good. I like Antonio Banderas and Lucy Liu as well, and that didn't help Ecks vs Sever. And you have to admit that there IS a similarity between the two movies -- Ecks vs Sever was the first thing that popped into my mind when watching the Mr and Mrs Smith trailer, hence the "vibe" I mentioned before. That's why I don't think the movie's going to do all that well.
on the topic of how well it is being marketed, you see tv spots for it like three times every hour. and because of jolie being co-lead, you can market it both during typical male programming as well as female programming. I have to agree with fonebone.. they are marketing this thing superbly. not to mention the huge banners at most movie theaters.. easily the biggest ad currently in any of the theaters I have been in the last 2-3 weeks.SteveMeister said:
as far as quality.. well, we'll have to see. it LOOKS good from the trailers, but then again so did Last Man Standing.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
borghe said:
I haven't seen a single trailer or ad for it outside of the trailer before Star Wars. Guess I'm not watching the same channels as you
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
My prediction of Cinderella Man beating RotS was more based on attrition than anything else. I don't think it's going to be a blockbuster film either, and frankly, it would probably do better as a holiday movie. Some have described it as Seabiscuit in Boxing Trunks. I was just thinking that with Longest Yard, Madagascar, Revenge of the Sith, and Cinderella Man all out at the same time, that there would be enough fall off for Ron Howard and Russell Crowe to take the weekend. Especially since this is easily the best reviewed film of the Summer thus far.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
shantyman said:
Are you kidding me? It was released mid-summer on 3222 screens. It cost $95M to make, and they spent around $35M on marketing. Those aren't the kind of numbers spent on a movie the makers don't have high box office hopes for.
Mr and Mrs Smith has been marketed since frickin' February, in the form of all the Pitt/Jolie hoopla and the divorce. Idiots will go to the movie just because of that. You have gotta be kidding yourself if you think it isn't going to take down Star Wars, which will be in its 4th weekend at that point. Comparing to Ecks vs Sever is just.....UGGGGGHHHH...
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
SteveMeister said:
Exactly what I was thinking SteveMeister!
On top of all that, didn't the studio blame Eidos for running the franchise into the ground as a video game, resulting in crappy performance at the boxoffice?
Shogmaster
Member
Kung Fu Jedi said:
You two should just get a room.
Who's Jennifer jason Leigh and who's Bridget Fonda I wonder? :lolKung Fu Jedi
Member
Shogmaster said:You two should just get a room.
Oh. I'm totally the stalker here!
Shogmaster
Member
Kung Fu Jedi said:Oh. I'm totally the stalker here!
how creepy and adorable at the same time. :lol
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
*backs away slowly...*
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
:lol :lol :lol
SteveMeister said:
Actually, it wasn't. It was dumped/released in September becauser the studio knew they had a shit sandwich on their hands.
http://imdb.com/title/tt0308208/releaseinfo
When they made it, the intention was likely to make a summer hit, but they screwed it up. Mr. and Mrs. Smith actually is coming out at a time when it could be a blockbuster. I guess it depends on your point of view.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
shantyman said:
Hm, Box Office Mojo (which unlike IMDB is not a user-contributed database) has the release date as July 25, 2003:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tombraider2.htm
And Rotten Tomatoes shows that as the release date as well:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/lara_croft_tomb_raider_the_cradle_of_life/
Same with Yahoo:
http://movies.yahoo.com/shop?d=hv&cf=info&id=1808416901
Heck, Ebert's review of the movie is that date:
http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030725/REVIEWS/307250302/1023
I'm not saying you (or IMDB) are WRONG, but IMDB seems to be the only place that doesn't show a release date of 7/25/03.
No, I'm prettty sure it was released in the middle of the summer where it had a quick death.
There were a few problems with that movie, the first being the video game franchise had been sinking fast (even before the first movie) and the second is that the first movie blew. I doubt there were many people walking out of Tomb Raider just dying to see what would happen next. The same thing happened with Charlie's Angels.
There were a few problems with that movie, the first being the video game franchise had been sinking fast (even before the first movie) and the second is that the first movie blew. I doubt there were many people walking out of Tomb Raider just dying to see what would happen next. The same thing happened with Charlie's Angels.
Tritroid said:
I don't really care. Especially since Spider-Man still has the three day weekend record.
I swear, rabid Star Wars fans make it sound like this is the first box office thread I've participated in.
Episode I was also released in 1999. You have to adjust for the inflation for ticket prices in the last six years.
SteveMeister
Hang out with Steve.
FoneBone said:
You're right about the link, but the post he originally quoted was part of a discussion about Cradle of Life, not Ecks vs Sever. Maybe he had the wrong IMDB page up when he responded.
border said:
:lol Just what I was going to say...Pitt and Jolie are the biggest gossip sheets celebs since the fabled Bennifer pairing, and unlike their disaster of a movie (Gigli), Mr and Mrs Smith looks like it could be an entertaining flick, looking to fill the action/comedy role quite well while appealing to both sexes. I think it'll do quite well.
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
Cradle of Life was out during summer. I know that because I was with some friends to see American Wedding (yeah, I know) and while there was a decent line for this movie, it was bare for Cradle of Life except for two teenage girls compared to about 20 or 30 people for AW.
I'm surprised The Longest Yard did so well.
I'm surprised The Longest Yard did so well.
This is the movie poster from the official site:
I believe it wasd released in September. I bet the July date was before it was pushed back.
EDIT: I did quote Darien's post on Cradle of life and was talking about it in that post only. Every other post was in reference to Ecks Vs. Sever. I think I did get them both confused at one point though.
I believe it wasd released in September. I bet the July date was before it was pushed back.
EDIT: I did quote Darien's post on Cradle of life and was talking about it in that post only. Every other post was in reference to Ecks Vs. Sever. I think I did get them both confused at one point though.
The Experiment said:
The formula for the movies works well, im not surprised at all by the earnings. Adam Sandler always does $30 mil + in his big comedy movies Add to that Chris Rock, the memorial day weekend factor, the good trailers, the fact that its a remake with the original star, its a sports movie with popular culture figures(rappers, wrestlers, NFL stars), and there hasnt been a good comedy in at least a few weeks. I would have guessed somewhere between 55-70 mil easily.
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