Catatafish
Banned
I think we all know why
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Will this be the defining holiday season for Xbox One?
- Thread starter The Sarcastic Dude
- Start date
I think we all know why
Well we don't know if it is profitable or not.
An entire generation grew up with Rare and have been clamoring for a new Conker or Banjo and to a lesser extent a new Battletoads. Come on. You know people that are on the fence would pick up an Xbone if it had either of those three sequels.
I apologize, there will be people that buy a console for those, but it will be background noise.
ThomasAnderson
Member
Is there a source for this claim?
0ptimusPayne
Member
Yet there still very much behind..As a gamer it would be nice to have one of there bigger games to play outside of a 2-3 month window...
Hans.Gruber
Banned
Great point. Plus we don't know if Xbox has to be profitable for MS.
Work related, I know people at MS (but only Dynamics Navision guys tho).
They told me Xbox is just a way to get younger people accustomed to the brand and it was a way to enter peoples living room.
Maybe if Xbox gets killed like Zune did, they will get out of the business. But we are far away from that.
PS4 being the best selling console ever in some european, middle eastern and asian countries show there is plenty of growth.
Microsoft and Nintendo just need to get their shit together and actually show some effort outside of the US.
So the whole "I believe in Phil Spencer" is supposed to be ironic?
Lord Malachite
Member
Getting more people to buy into the ecosystem is an important strategy for all three of the major platform holders. It is unlikely the buy-in to Xbox Live is a major problem for MS. They have done a lot to compete with Sony's PlayStation Plus offering. Games With Gold has been pretty successful and both platforms share parity in requiring the paywall for online play this generation. It is not very likely that either MS or Sony are having a major gap in the consoles sold vs. XBL / Plus subscriptions being sold. Neither ecosystem is unhealthy in this regard.
Microsoft's biggest issue, IMO, is that the XB1 is perceived to be a lesser value than the PS4. Some gamers might agree with that sentiment, some might feel they are equal, and some might even feel XB1 is superior (depending on features, exclusives, and tastes that are relevant, not on sheer spec sheets). NPD results indicate that the only conditions that XB1 triumphs over PS4 so far are when Sony literally doesn't have any PS4 on store shelves, or when MS is "giving away the store" by not only noticeably undercutting Sony's price, but giving away significant free games. That strategy carried MS through the holiday season, but it's not a winning strategy in the long term and it certainly isn't financially responsible. I am not personally of the belief that Microsoft will continue to subsidize the console to that extent if it's not pushing them towards the #1 position. Expenses have to be justified and if it's not moving them out of the #2 spot, it's money that could be better spent on other things.
ERM x1 stomped all over PS4 during those months (US) and closed the gap significantly (50%) . From the figures we have (please correct me) x1 has been outsold by a small amount in Jan/Feb, and their 2015 line up is pretty strong pre e3, they will more than likely announce a bunch of new titles perhaps a revised x1 who knows but your comment on not coming close isnt true. Nobody expected them to sell as much as it did.
Have you seen the figures for titanfall and horizon 2 for 360? Its barely worth talking about, those games dont really match x1 versions in scope and experience, with all that I'd hardly say TR is being shared, and is seen as a next gen title on x1 only.
Considering the first 5 Forza games sold 10 million combined, you can realistically expect 2 million copies per Forza release. It averages that per release. That's a damn fine piece to any Holiday lineup even if it isn't the crown jewel. It seems that the mainline Forza has a great attach ratio on One. That's good news for a budding franchise. I expect you'd see 2 million lifetime for Forza 6 and it should have a really good holiday. I would call 2 million on one console a 'big seller' even if it isn't necessarily lighting the world on fire. It's a good game (and franchise) to have in your stable.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I don't know but I am pretty sure on of the forzas sold 5-6 million because of bundling.
semiconscious
Member
no, but it has to competitive outside of a single territory. do you believe there's a future for a game console that only really sells well (as opposed to dominates) in one territory? do you think ms thinks there is?...
Yeah, I'm not sure as to why some are acting as if the Xbox One had the possibility to completely close the gap in North America in just November and December. The system would have needed to basically have two times the amount of sales the PS4 had for that to happen -- almost impossible considering the PS4 sold about 2 Million for those two months.
The move was to put the Xbox One in a better position in North America and it did that. Closing the gap by 600K in just two months was good. The current gap between the two systems here is less than 700K which is the smallest it has ever been between the first and second place console during this period of a gaming gen in North America (well, at least for any gaming gen since the Playstation brand has been around).
It's going to be a tight battle here (in North America) -- definitely expecting MS to go all out to try and get the top spot. Sony will put in a good effort too, though I don't think they'll be as desperate as MS... especially since they pretty much have the #1 spot in worldwide sales on lock.
Going to be a really good E3. Many details for games coming out soon as well as games coming in 2016. Maybe some price drop announcements too though no slim models. Think it's too soon for them to come out.
The move was to put the Xbox One in a better position in North America and it did that. Closing the gap by 600K in just two months was good. The current gap between the two systems here is less than 700K which is the smallest it has ever been between the first and second place console during this period of a gaming gen in North America (well, at least for any gaming gen since the Playstation brand has been around).
It's going to be a tight battle here (in North America) -- definitely expecting MS to go all out to try and get the top spot. Sony will put in a good effort too, though I don't think they'll be as desperate as MS... especially since they pretty much have the #1 spot in worldwide sales on lock.
Going to be a really good E3. Many details for games coming out soon as well as games coming in 2016. Maybe some price drop announcements too though no slim models. Think it's too soon for them to come out.
Sorry if exterminating is an ''ugly word'' but the worldwide sales difference between PS4 & Xbox One is also very ugly.
From a business perspective, they are wiping out their nearest competitor in the US (for now at least), and exterminating the competition on a global basis.
There is no other way to put it to emphasize just how catastrophically they are being beaten left, right, and center around the world.
Forza 5 didn't bundle and it sold over 1 million in 3 months on a brand new console with an install base only x3 as big as copies of Forza 5 sold. I think people are underestimating the popularity of the Forza series at least with regards to the US.
Steverulez
Member
They gave it away in EU instead of Fifa if people wanted it at launch
Have to wonder how the XOs successor will fair considering how much the Xbox market share outside of NA has possibly shrunk
ps3ud0 8)
Still. The attach ratio was really good in the US. I would bet on Forza 6 getting to 2 million copies sold. I think you can look at the Forza series as something MGS cultivated correctly. Going up against a juggernaut like GT isn't easy and they are far behind but I feel like people are saying that if it doesn't sell like GT than it's irrelevant. Far from it, imo.
p.s. I also have no idea how many people would want Forza over FIFA in UK but I think FIFA is really popular, over there? Dunno much about it.
Bg, besides dangerous levels of optimism, how, realistically could Microsoft try to not only become competitive to PS4, but to overtake it?
It seems forgone at this stage that Sony will remain ahead for the foreseeable future - they have all the price cut cards still left, have not exhausted the opportunity to drop the price whenever they see fit, and have not severly devalued their console to the point that most people won't even consider an Xbox One until the Holidays, because, why buy now?
What can they do?
Drop price to $299?
$199?
$99?
Free Xbox One with purchase of Hershey bar?
NO, its irrelevant in terms of system seller. There have been two forzas on the box, another one will not do much to help sell xbox. What will is halo and maybe tomb raider.
It's March 28 and I didn't know Christmas was just around the corner!
I honestly don't know why you keep bringing wii and wii u in the equation just to make that argument about the first and second console this gen being very close. The fact is 360 dominated PS3 in the US and UK and they are now trailing behind and are going crazy with deals just to close the gap. That my friend is a failure. Even if they catch up it is meaningless. I honestly can't see any publisher ignoring double the install base just because they are on equal footing in the US
BRocknRolla
Member
Yeah, while I don't necessarily agree with the stale part, you're putting a whole hell of a lot of importance on a single game. If the Xbox One has a "defining holiday," Halo 5 is only going to be piece of the reason. It alone won't mean a whole lot unless something huge occurs with that series.
Not sure how it takes "dangerous levels of optimism" to think the Xbox One still has the chance at taking North America. As I said before, less than a 700K gap here isn't big at all -- smallest gap there's been in 20 years at this point of a generation here. If the gap by July is say, 800K and the Xbox One takes August to December (possible Madden bundle, Halo 5 release in September, Fall price drop alongside big Holiday games, etc.) then they will more than likely be pretty close to taking the top spot in North America.
Most people don't buy consoles outside of the Fall season for the same exact reason(s) -- all of the big games and deals come during the the Fall season. Same question could be said for pretty much every console.
Also, while the Xbox One deals have been better, the PS4 has had many good deals last year and this year. Good bundles with free games, good trade in deals, etc. To be honest both current gen consoles are much better priced than their predecessors were; at least in terms of the bundles.
Not sure why it's somehow strange to think they could possibly drop the price to $299 in the U.S. alongside the big games they have coming during the second half of the year.
Why does everything have to be a 'system seller'. I think we're talking at each other and not actually talking about the same thing. I'm talking about Forza being a value-add for someone buying Xbox One. You're talking about people buying a system for a racing game. You quoted me about me saying Forza 6 will sell well this holiday and wanting to give the Forza series its due. You seem to be talking about the idea that system sellers are what matters.
I believe that Forza is a great addition to the holiday 2015 lineup both in quality and in what it will sell. I'm not saying it's a system seller so if that's why you quoted me it was not my point.
LowEndTorque
Member
Is this thread proof that people drank Greenberg's preseason kool-aid?
I do because it was... you know... a video game console. Others were using the Xbox 360 to state the brand's dominance when its dominance last gen was only over the PS3 in NA (and not overall).
"Failure" is where the Wii U is. The Xbox One is still getting very solid third party support due to its game sales.
That wasn't the point I was making. Of course third party companies aren't going to ignore the console that's in the top spot worldwide. However, a lot of game sales come from NA -- hence why being in the top spot in the NA is a good spot to be in for game support and more than likely part of the reason why they are (are will continue on) making a good effort to try and make the Xbox One the top selling console in NA.
Elaborate.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Gap might 800k after this month. I expect it to above 1 million again by the time pre-season is over.
Is this statement somehow intended to negate the fact that PS4 will outsell Xbox One until September at least, where in some bizarre reality, game consoles are only bought in the Fall season?
That's not even dangerous levels of optimism, that's absurd.
It didn't stop PS4 from gaining a gigantic lead over Xbox One right from launch all the way up to Gamescom 2014.
You have to accept some time or another that the console is being devalued, and to an extent, tainted by the constant promotions as everyone will just keep on waiting, thus, further lowering sales relative to PS4 - it just shows right now, PS4 is ranked 5th in Amazon charts, and Xbox One is 57th. That's not even sad, that's pathetic.
There are more chargers for the Dualshock 4 controller being sold than there are Xbox Ones.
Even if a miracle happened and Xbox One overtook PS4 by December 2015, the gap will once again be closed in favour of PS4 when it outsells it again for 9 months straight.
$299 is a great price for consumers, but do you really think that the overall corporation is thrilled that their console is racking up losses yet still not beating the competition - becoming a giant financial sinkhole with no real results.
Yeah, let's cut it again and incur even more losses, because, we like burning money.
Success or failure is determined by how much money the xbox division is bringing to the company in terms of profits. Based on the past financial results the division was bringing nearly 10 billion dollars in revenue but had absolutely minimal profit compared to Windows and Business Office applications. That is probably because the operating costs were extremely high. Do we know what the margins are right now? How much money is the product bringing and how much of it is realized in the profits? Can slashing prices be viable given that the narrow margins were shrinking profitability in the past? Unless we have answers to these questions a product cannot be deemed a success or a failure.
Even at 1 million, that's damn close for that point in the gen.
semiconscious
Member
again: what value does 'top spot in n.a.' really have right now, when your main competitor's breathing down your neck, & dominating in every other territory world-wide. do you believe it's feasible for ms to market a game console which only really sells well in one territory? do you believe that 'top spot in n.a.' will actually somehow affect or change this?...
because, if it doesn't, it's only real value is braggin' rights: the xbone faces a much larger challenge than obtaining top spot in n.a. it's a product that has to be somewhat successful world-wide...
LowEndTorque
Member
People used to discuss and speculate about a platform’s “defining year.” Now they’re speculating about a platform’s “defining three month period from October to December.”
I would not be surprised if at E3 they announce they cancelled the 360 version.
Well, speaking personally, since I live in NA, I would say it is very important. The games that matter most to someone with my (NA) tastes will come to the system(s) that have the greatest installed userbase in that territory. So, yeah. It's important to me.
Why does it have to be successful worldwide for people in NA to get the most out of it? Let's be honest, the One was designed with NA in mind and that is also the territory this thread is about.
It wont be cancelled, other wise how will it sell in EU?
It's moving the goalposts.
Because, they can't exactly speculate about a console's defining year, as it's being destroyed beyond reason for 9 months of the year.
When the pre-season fails, it'll be the platform's defining couple of days where it sold a few more consoles.
Bundled with a new Xbox One but you make a good point.
That entire generation is married with kids and probably stopped giving a shit about video games a long time ago. You and I (and half of GAF) might swoon over sequels to those titles, but we're not normal people.
reynal1287
Member
They've got a great line up for holidays, that's for sure. We'll see at e3, if Sony will announce something, but i don't expect anything huge for holidays so soon.
going from dominating the playstation brand in NA to trailing behind them is a failure no matter how you want to spin it.
obviously when i say failure, i mean relative to their position last gen when compared to playstation. the console will no doubt hold its own in the US and continue to get the third party support whether it catches up or not. I honestly can't see MS being happy about their position either way, especially when they were gloating sales figures constantly from the roof tops last gen. same thing happened with ps3 for sony last gen.
miDnIghtEr20C
Banned
I heard that.
??? -- No. I'm not negating anything.
It's to simply say that console sales during the last four months of the year are usually higher than the first eight months of the year and therefore cause a bigger impact for gaps. I mean heck, just look at late last year. Xbox One sold more than 1.2 million during a single month. That's about five times what it did last month (Feb. 2015) if I remember correctly.
??? -- Never said it did as my post was referring to the months after Gamescom.
Putting way too much emphasis on Amazon sales here.
Not sure how anyone can say this this early. We don't know how much both consoles will be in early 2016 and neither do we know what games will be releasing during that period.
No. Of course not. That was never my point though. My point was simply why I think the system still has the possibility of being #1 here. Not about them losing money on cutting price.
Heh, I'm going to stop now. This is reminding me of the discussions I had about the Wii U's name a few years back and the possibility of the Xbox One doing better than the PS4 in NA during last year's Holiday season a few months before it started. We're just going in circles -- bringing up topics that are outside what I was strictly referring to.
Similar threads
- Poll
- Poll