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Wkd Box Office 01•01-03•16 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record

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So it takes the January weekend record.

Next weekend will be the first weekend where it makes less than the previous December OW record.

edit: RIP to the Trifecta, officially.
 

Anth0ny

Member
So it takes the January weekend record.

Next weekend will be the first weekend where it makes less than the previous December OW record.

edit: RIP to the Trifecta, officially.

hahahahahaha

jeeeeeeeeez


Previous highest third weekend was Avatar with $68 million.

TFA's third weekend would rank 4th among second weekends, after TFA, Jurassic World and Avengers ($103m) and above Age of Ultron ($77m).

Also I'm pretty sure all three weekends of TFA so far would rank in the top 50 as far as weekend grosses go (weekend 3 barely cracks the top 50). Unreal.
 

kswiston

Member
So is that good?
There seems to a lot of doom and gloom in here.

The only "doom and gloom" is a discussion to whether TFAs domestic take will go a full 50% over Avatar's, or whether it will have yo seytle for taking the domestic all time record by a measily 40%
 

Interfectum

Member
The whole Avatar comparison seems to impact people's perspective on what's good and what's not

Yup. Instead of "holy shit Star Wars is doing fucking great" it's "lol not gonna beat Avatar WW lol." So no matter how well SW is doing there's always that negative spin on it.
 
Those were the days though. I worked at a movie theater when the Episode I trailer came attached to Wing Commander. There were people paying to see the movie, watching the trailer and leaving. Shit cray.

I kind of did that, but in my case the trailer was attached to The Siege. I went to see the movie solely to catch the trailer, but then I made the regrettable decision of staying for the movie (about 3/4 of the theater bailed out, but I was a poor grad student).
 

R-User!

Member
You basically just stole the Christmas season now that Harry Potter and the Hobbit are done and Avatar is still a ways away. I get they will still make money, and lots of it, but I am just trying to understand the logic of the switch. There seems to be no good reason to do it. You jump into a hornets nest of competition and it has been shown pretty definitively that there is a lot of money to be made in December if you're a blockbuster: Harry Potter, LOTR, Avatar, TFA.

Also I still think people are underplaying how TFA's success overseas is going to build the audience up world wide. If it hits huge in China, watch out.

I would be shocked if the overseas numbers aren't higher next episode.

EDIT: I guess the 40th Anniversary makes sense on some level but not enough in my mind to forfeit the comfort of Christmas to go into the Summer.

They could rerelease it during Winter of 2017 to recoup the "summer money left on the table"; maybe steal a bit of Avatar 2's thunder (10-20 million during A2's OW maybe?) if Avatar 2 does make it out by Xmas 2017.
 
So far, technically, it hasn't even broken 40% drops.

I mean, 39.8 and 39.5 is effectively the same fuckin' thing, but still, it's had sub 40% drops so far. Technically.
 

Branduil

Member
So far, technically, it hasn't even broken 40% drops.

I mean, 39.8 and 39.5 is effectively the same fuckin' thing, but still, it's had sub 40% drops so far. Technically.

We've lost perspective for how good these drops are for a massive film because we've been comparing it to freaking Avatar the whole time.
 

kswiston

Member
So far, technically, it hasn't even broken 40% drops.

I mean, 39.8 and 39.5 is effectively the same fuckin' thing, but still, it's had sub 40% drops so far. Technically.

This coming weekend was by far the biggest drop in the first 6+ weekends for Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, Chimpmunks 2, and It's Complicated (so basically every late Dec 2009 opener that opened wide and ended over $50M domestic). I don't see Star Wars bucking the trend.
 

Branduil

Member
I think if TFA tracks closely to Avatar this week it will make it to a billion. If it's closer to Jurassic World it won't.
 
Hobbit 1&2, Return of the King, & I Am Legend held steady-ish, though.

Still a drop from the previous weekend, but more like 6-8% more weekend to weekend as opposed to the 15-20% more that Avatar & Sherlock had.

Still though, that 2nd weekend in January seems to be a dip, regardless. There's always a bit of a rebound the following week, it looks like.
 

kswiston

Member
Hobbit 1&2, Return of the King, & I Am Legend held steady-ish, though.

Still a drop from the previous weekend, but more like 6-8% more weekend to weekend as opposed to the 15-20% more that Avatar & Sherlock had.

Still though, that 2nd weekend in January seems to be a dip, regardless. There's always a bit of a rebound the following week, it looks like.

None of the films you mentioned had New Year's day as part of the weekend.

Having NYD as Friday is pretty much the best case scenario for a first weekend of January gross. You get the holiday boost, but avoid having New Years Eve dampen things like it would if NYD was Saturday or Sunday.

As such, second weekend of Jan drops will be harsher.

EDIT: Also, while sub 40% would usually be a great third weekend drop, Star Wars had the second worst drop in the Top 20. Only beating Krampus which lost half of its venues to Hateful Eight.
 
None of the films you mentioned had New Year's day as part of the weekend.

Well that would do it. I was just grabbing up 2nd weekend in January and comparing them to the prior.

There is always, it seems, a dip on that 2nd weekend though. I stopped looking at those numbers once I got out of the top 10 for December, but I don't think there was a single example of a film not dipping in that 2nd weekend - and then bouncing back the following weekend.

Also, while sub 40% would usually be a great third weekend drop

To be fair - it still is.
 

kswiston

Member
To be fair - it still is.

It is due to the magnitude of money we are talking about, definitely.

However, for a percentage drop on that weekend in general, it's on the low side. Of the 40 films making up the combined 2009 and 2015 top 20s, The Force Awakens' Hold ranks #36 in terms of percentage hold. In light of that, I don't really see it getting one of the better post-New Year's holds of the two years. You can't keep grossing ridiculous sums of cash forever. We're looking at more than an Avatar worth of business being burnt off before entering this coming weekend.

A high 40s drop this coming weekend would be great. A low 50s weekend would pretty standard given The Force Awakens' trend so far. Mid-high 50s would be disappointing (but I don't see that happening either).
 

kswiston

Member
I don't see why Lucas would care about The Force Awakens crushing the performance of his prequels anymore than Spielberg cares that Jurassic World crushed his JP sequel. They built the foundations that those movies rest on.
 
I don't see why Lucas would care about The Force Awakens crushing the performance of his prequels anymore than Spielberg cares that Jurassic World crushed his JP sequel. They built the foundations that those movies rest on.

On a scale of 1 to Morton, how salty is Lucas right now? His blood probably has dangerously high levels of sodium chloride.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
so TFA tied Avatars record of consecutive $10 million days

but TFA has not yet had a day below $20 million :eek:

but it's going to totally be below $10 million today... just seat watching and what i saw was not very good at all. not even half of sunday.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
so TFA tied Avatars record of consecutive $10 million days

but TFA has not yet had a day below $20 million :eek:

but it's going to totally be below $10 million today... just seat watching and what i saw was not very good at all. not even half of sunday.
I guess this is what it looks like after the kids are back in school.
 

Branduil

Member
With Avatar-like drops, TFA would make about $36 million this Mon-Thu and $67 million next weekend. That weekend number is obviously ridiculous and won't happen.

With Sherlock Holmes-like drops, TFA would make about $29 million Mon-Thu and $41 million next weekend. Much more realistic, though I feel like TFA can do a bit better than that.

I'll go ahead and say TFA makes $32 million Mon-Thu and $48 million next weekend. That would put it at over $820 million at that point.
 
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