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Wkd Box Office 04•24-26•15 - Adeline ages fast & furious, Ultron RULES THE WORLD

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AHA-Lambda

AHA-Lambda

Member
Cheebo said:
http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/

It ended up coming in under expectations, friday of 85 million. The chance of it getting the OW record from the first Avengers are almost certainly gone now.

There goes my 220 mil prediction, oh well. With that number the folks over at BoxOffice.com are saying it should come in at 190-195 mil for the weekend. Huge of course, but not record breaking.
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Wow, I'm surprised but in a way it rings true to my feelings, even if I did see it opening day in the UK.

We're getting saturated with comic movies, and AoU wasn't as good as A1, plus tbh I wasn't as excited for it as I thought I'd be as time went on. It felt like an obligatory MCU film I had to see; even with that said it's by no means a bad movie, but man I was losing my mind over the first Avengers release.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
BobbyRoberts said:
This movie's being "disappointing" at the box-office has everything to do with the marketing and the buzz that was built, and for whatever reason, it appears they didn't do AS good a job this time out as they did on the last film to get people excited to see these characters come together again. I get where you're going, but we're talking about day one domestic box-office. There is almost zero opportunity for word-of-mouth to have factored in that fast.
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I respect your opinion, but it has as much opinion behind it as mine. It's ironic though, that somehow the age of social media that is going to turn Star Wars into king shit, somehow seems to have 0 effect in this instance. I'm arguing about things that would give a 7% boost, you're framing my argument as if AoU's entire OW success depended on word of mouth.
 
AHA-Lambda

AHA-Lambda

Member
ksharp said:
There will definitely be a small hit OW-wise because of the fight.

If TA2 doesn't do >$500m, would that be one of the biggest domestic box office drops of all time between sequels (>$125m)?

Just like Furious 7, I expect this movie to crack the $1B overseas which should allow it to bridge any gap to TA1, but still $1.4-1.5bn is a bit disappointing when people were talking "Titanic" numbers a few weeks ago.
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Really?

Ok, I never believed that =/
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Can Crusher said:
I respect your opinion, but it has as much opinion behind it as mine. It's ironic though, that somehow the age of social media that is going to turn Star Wars into king shit, somehow seems to have 0 effect in this instance. I'm arguing about things that would give a 7% boost, you're framing my argument as if AoU's entire OW success depended on word of mouth.
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I'm not doing that man. I'm just saying the word of mouth aspect is really, REALLY tiny, if even at all applicable right now. Just that one part of your argument. we're dealing with like, 36 hours of box-office. 2nd weekend is when word of mouth is going to start showing effects. And that's where I think a lot of your argument is going to start to bear out regarding the quality of the film diminishing the atmosphere around the film, an atmosphere that wasn't built up as much as it was last time.

Which makes my prediction this thing was going to clear 600m in the Summer Box Office Prediction Thread seem a little extra boneheaded, now
 
B

BlazinAm

Junior Member
AHA-Lambda said:
Wow, I'm surprised but in a way it rings true to my feelings, even if I did see it opening day in the UK.

We're getting saturated with comic movies, and AoU wasn't as good as A1, plus tbh I wasn't as excited for it as I thought I'd be as time went on. It felt like an obligatory MCU film I had to see; even with that said it's by no means a bad movie, but man I was losing my mind over the first Avengers release.
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Is this really a big failure though? It's small knock given the expectations that this a big sports weekend. I don't know if we can knock over-saturation of comic book movies for the drop. I think that the reveal of Vision vs Hulk from the first movie, Hulk was way more important and his scenes were better in the first movie. I think people expected a lot out of the Hulk. I dunno I was pretty hyped and I got what I wanted out the movie.

pestul said:
Yeah, you're right. Even a conservative 85+55+50 is still 190m...
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I think your underestimating the power of a Saturday at the movies big time.
 
AHA-Lambda

AHA-Lambda

Member
BlazinAm said:
Is this really a big failure though? It's small knock given the expectations that this a big sports weekend. I don't know if we can knock over-saturation of comic book movies for the drop. I think that the reveal of Vision vs Hulk from the first movie, Hulk was way more important and his scenes were better in the first movie. I think people expected a lot out of the Hulk. I dunno I was pretty hyped and I got what I wanted out the movie.
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It is? I pay no attention to sports.
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
BobbyRoberts said:
I'm not doing that man. I'm just saying the word of mouth aspect is really, REALLY tiny, if even at all applicable right now. Just that one part of your argument. we're dealing with like, 36 hours of box-office. 2nd weekend is when word of mouth is going to start showing effects. And that's where I think a lot of your argument is going to start to bear out regarding the quality of the film diminishing the atmosphere around the film, an atmosphere that wasn't built up as much as it was last time.

Which makes my prediction this thing was going to clear 600m in the Summer Box Office Prediction Thread seem a little extra boneheaded, now
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Maybe my dislike for the movie is making me short sighted, even by my standards. I had 3 times more fun watching Blackhate than this shit cake.
 
D

Discotheque

Banned
Black Hat rocked. Not everyone's cup of tea but man that really didn't deserve the panning it got, though it's more for the fans of mann's later work like miami vice and luck.

certainly the best movie a hemsworth is involved in 2015.
 
B

BlazinAm

Junior Member
AHA-Lambda said:
It is? I pay no attention to sports.
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I said a small knock. If anything 6-11 pm shows might get hurt a bit. But movie theaters have a show every half and hour so people won't miss out on Avengers at all. Plus Sunday morning to 1pm is a big factor for the performance of Sunday. I think that the 220 million opening was always off but 210 is possible high mark. I don't think that there is any real competition until the end of the month so Avengers will own all the weekends of May for sure.
 
C

cory64

Member
Well I guess it's settled then

Kp2J3uX.png



ZkMFQu2.gif
 
O

Obliterator

Member
One thing that may help Ultrons legs is people wanting to dodge crowds. I know its antecedal but I know quite a few people that were going to wait till next weekend to see it because of all the stories everywhere about how crazy the opening weekend would be.

Never know it could be a factor and help give it a little bit of legs.
 
M

Matt_

World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
cory64 said:
Well I guess it's settled then

Kp2J3uX.png
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seem to be missing something in that list
ih6wDtCUYpiKj.gif


edit; no way it does 70M saturday
previews aside it did 56.86M on Friday, which is actually less than the 62M that avengers did without previews
Avengers 1 increased 12% from its no preview gross friday-sat
Going by that Ultron will do 63M Sat, when it comes in it will probably do less due to the fight
 
K

kswiston

Member
I'm not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but apparently, the 3D gross share for Age of Ultron is 10% less than that of the Avengers. Average ticket prices have increased less than 5% since 2012, so that could actually make a difference.

TacticalFox88 said:
Well. Star Wars is assuredly going to crush AOU at this point
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I'm not sure how that is the take home conclusion to all of this. Lets not act like $190M+ openings are everyday occurrences. Age of Ultron could still easily take the opening weekend crown for the year.

Now if you are talking about domestic total, then I agree, it's hard to picture Star Wars missing $500M, and that might happen to AoU.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
kswiston said:
I'm not sure how that is the take home conclusion to all of this. Lets not act like $190M+ openings are everyday occurrences. Age of Ultron could still easily take the opening weekend crown for the year.
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I'd still be surprised if it didn't. I think Star Wars is going to be massive, but I'm not sure about 200 mil on a Winter opening weekend massive.

Kusagari said:
Gonna laugh so hard when Star Wars disappoints compared to the ludicrous expectations on GAF.
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image.php
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
I don't think some people realize that Avatar approached 3 billion. They act like the next blockbuster is sure to knock it off.
 
JeTmAn81

JeTmAn81

Member
Lol, I was trying so hard to figure out what AHBUHDAR's letters might stand for (Uh, "Awesome Hardware Bots United Having Defense Against Rats"?) before I realized my mistake.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
ReturnOfTheRAT said:
It will be a true shock if a Christmas release, CHRISTMAS, opens to records beyond what we get in the summer.
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Well, the difference isn't opening for SW. AHBUHDAR wasn't world beating with its opening. The difference will be legs potential. SW will have virtually no competition from its release until February (just like AHBUHDAR), whereas as just about every week from now till early August will have big movie after big movie to erode Ultron's appeal.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BobbyRoberts said:
I'd still be surprised if it didn't. I think Star Wars is going to be massive, but I'm not sure about 200 mil on a Winter opening weekend massive.]
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I'm still not 100% convinced that Disney won't move Star Wars' opening to the Thursday of that week. Early openings have worked pretty well in the past on the 3rd weekend in Dec, and Star Wars has a history of Wed/Thurs openings. None of the films have opened on Friday (though none of the films have opened in December either I guess).
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
PhoncipleBone said:
Even if it doubled the previous December opening weekend record of $84.6m, it wouldn't hit $200m.
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Exactly. I mean - I really do think that the holiday season is going to be beneficial to Star Wars, not just because of the legs, but because for a very long time, people are used to their Holidays being sorta/kinda Star Warsy. People get Star Wars presents for Christmas, there's usually a marathon of the movies on somewhere during the holidays - for a series as merchandising heavy as Star Wars always has been, the idea that there'd be a relationship between the biggest merchandise selling period of the year and one of the most recognizable merchandising brands in cinema isn't that far-fetched.

So I think "Going to see Star Wars for Christmas" will be a really big attraction for a large block of viewers, honestly. Enough that it's probably a safe bet the opening weekend record for December is getting roasted. But I don't know that it'd be doubled, and I really don't know that it'd cross 200 mil. That's completely uncharted territory.

I mean, I know 2015 is already pretty crazy in terms of box-office, but that's asking a lot.

kswiston said:
I'm still not 100% convinced that Disney won't move Star Wars' opening to the Thursday of that week. Early openings have worked pretty well in the past on the 3rd weekend in Dec, and Star Wars has a history of Wed/Thurs openings. None of the films have opened on Friday (though none of the films have opened in December either I guess).
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I thought a release date change was possible considering the most recent teaser made sure to leave off the date, as opposed to being specific about it on the first teaser.
 
K

kswiston

Member
CassidyIzABeast said:
Catch Avatar they said.

wade-laugh.gif
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No one who knew what they were talking about ever said that. Let's not claim victory over strawmen opponents.

I think most people were expecting the domestic take for Age of Ultron to drop compared to the first Avengers, even if they were expecting a new weekend record. You would have to be crazy to predict a $130M domestic uptick for a sequel to something like the Avengers.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
That's what I initially expecting, a lower gross or equivalent gross to The Avengers, but a higher international gross, mostly due to China's ever expanding market.

In regards to Star Wars, it's not going to have an opening a la Avengers but it's legs will be much better.
 
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