I didn't realize Iron Man's overseas grosses were so poor pre-Avengers.
Other than Spider-man, Comic book movies used to be pretty soft performers overseas in comparison to their domestic earnings. That changed big time last year.
Looks like Pacific Rim had a soft opening in Japan. World War Z beat it by quite a bit. It won't do much in the region. A lot less than the $40-50M that I thought would be possible, and possibly under $20M. Still the stronger than expected grosses in China, plus other holdover business means that $400M could still happen. The movie is topping $380M for sure, giving it a 2x production multiplier.
The Wolverine already at X-Men Origin's overseas total, and should pass that and X-Men First Class within the next few weeks. Future openings in Japan and China (assuming it is slated for release) will probably make it the highest grossing film in the series overseas. Worldwide, I would guess that it will finish higher than the first Wolverine but lower than X2. It's a bit early to tell though. No China release would put it closer to $350M.
As for the eariler Thor vs Man of Steel debate, I think it will be close. For now, I am going to say $200M domestic and $400M overseas for Thor, but a few breakout territories could put it past Man of Steel. MoS will finish in the $660-670M range.
You're not alone.
400 million is gonna be a breeze.
$400M is not going to be a breeze. In the past 2 weeks, the film has made just over $120M, but $78M of that came from China. The Chinese run is winding down quickly, and the film is pretty much done everywhere except for this week's openings (Brazil, Spain, Japan, and a few small territories). I think $400M can happen, but if it does, it will be by less than $10M.
Doesn't Catching Fire have a chance at an overseas explosion like Twilight had with its sequel?
While an increase overseas definitely would not be surprising, I don't think it will be a 100% increase like Twilight. The Hunger Games was much bigger coming out the gate than Twilight was.
