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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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kswiston

Member
Over 1000 posts. If this isn't the longest weekend box office thread on GAF since the Avengers opening, it definitely will be by next Sunday.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
vinnygambini said:
There was an article on Deadline stating that the film may surprise people and heard rumblings that it's actually quite good, plus Act of Valor and The Lone Ranger all performed well too in a similar time frame so I think it has a good shot of doing well.
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I think you mean Lone Surivor, which Kswiston reminded me about before. Lone Ranger's box office performance is not what I would call performing well.
 
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Branduil

Member
Don't know why you guys are still talking about movie quality, if that mattered for box office then Jurassic World
and Avengers
wouldn't have made as much money as they did.
 
A

Afro Samurai

Banned
How did Avatar earn so much money? It made at least 2.7 Billion Dollars and it's an original movie. How did word get spread to so many people?

I still wonder how Titanic made a lot too.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
PhoncipleBone said:
I think you mean Lone Surivor, which Kswiston reminded me about before. Lone Ranger's box office performance is not what I would call performing well.
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Lmao you're right, Lone Survivor, the one with Marky Mark, my bad hahaha 😅
 
W

wachie

Member
HFR with laser won't be the factor, don't think there is as big an apparent benefit/gimmick for people to pay more for that. Avatar 2 has an uphill task of selling as many tickets as the first one so there has to be a premium to boost its tally.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Deadline was the originator of the $300M talk, so I wouldn't pay too much attention to their early second weekend projections this far out.


So looking through the records on BOM, best Monday, non-opening Tuesday, and non-opening Friday are going down for sure. Best Tuesday and non-opening Wednesday are maybe's. Overall Wednesday and both of the Thursday records are nos.

All of Jurassic World's records for Top 4-10 day gross will be beaten. As such fastest to 250, 300, 350, 400 etc will all be beaten as well. JW will get to keep biggest Saturday and the June record.

Biggest Xmas day gross is guaranteed. Biggest New Years' gross is pretty likely.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I expect a Deadline article about Avatar 2 boxoffice potential shortly too, stay tuned.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
No one claimed the prize of nothing for guessing a 248M OW. 800+ posts in the prediction thread and everyone failed.

End of contest. No prize awarded.

I think we should all work for Deadline.
 
K

kswiston

Member
3N16MA said:
No one claimed the prize of nothing for guessing a 248M OW. 800+ posts in the prediction thread and everyone failed.

End of contest. No prize awarded.

I think we should all work for Deadline.
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I said previews would be over $50M, and that the first day would be the first to break $100M, but I was $23M too conservative with my weekend guess in that prediction thread.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
kswiston said:
Deadline was the originator of the $300M talk, so I wouldn't pay too much attention to their early second weekend projections this far out.


So looking through the records on BOM, best Monday, non-opening Tuesday, and non-opening Friday are going down for sure. Best Tuesday and non-opening Wednesday are maybe's. Overall Wednesday and both of the Thursday records are nos.

All of Jurassic World's records for Top 4-10 day gross will be beaten. As such fastest to 250, 300, 350, 400 etc will all be beaten as well. JW will get to keep biggest Saturday and the June record.

Biggest Xmas day gross is guaranteed. Biggest New Years' gross is pretty likely.
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Being conservative as hell:

Best Monday: 28 mil (Beats Spidey 2)
Best non-open Tuesday: 25 mil (Beats Jurassic World)
Wednesday: 24 mil (falls short of Transformers at 29mil)
Thursday: 22 mil (falls short of Transformers 2 at 29 mil)
Christmas: 25mil (beats Sherlock Holmes)

That's another 124 mil heading into Saturday, putting the film at 372 mil domestic before Saturday/Sunday numbers.

Again, that's super conservative, especially considering that sort of real Friday-to-Friday drop (62mil week 1 to 25 mil week 2) is probably too steep by about 10 mil at least.

3N16MA said:
No one claimed the prize of nothing for guessing a 248M OW. 800+ posts in the prediction thread and everyone failed.
Click to expand...

No, Perfect Chaos guessed 248 mil. overshot the actual total by like 900k.
 
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Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Draconian said:
Oh look, another thread where GAF pretends 3D is the only reason why Avatar's king of the BO.
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It wasn't the only reason, but you're just as crazy if you think it wasn't one of the biggest factors in its massive. Did Avatar has incredible WOM? Absolutely. But so have a lot of movies that didn't take off like it did. 3D (along with what is still the best CGI environments in a film) made it a unique experience at the time, and it allowed it to hold onto IMAX and 3D screens for an incredibly long time. Close to 3 months for IMAX screens. Star Wars will have to give them up far sooner, as will Avatar 2, whenever that comes out.

That alone is reason enough to be pessimistic about Avatar 2's prospects vs the first one, stateside at least. It's worth being even more cautious when you consider the trends of blockbuster sequels decreasing from their predecessor domestically.
 
K

kswiston

Member
wachie said:
Which is why I intentionally was conservative on the weekdays.

New years eve and Christmas would atleast 60M total so 625M is very achievable by Jan 2.
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I agree. We'll have to see how the film does this week, but that number doesn't seem out of the realm of probability.
 
W

wachie

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
It wasn't the only reason, but you're just as crazy if you think it wasn't one of the biggest factors in its massive. Did Avatar has incredible WOM? Absolutely. But so have a lot of movies that didn't take off like it did. 3D (along with what is still the best CGI environments in a film) made it a unique experience at the time, and it allowed it to hold onto IMAX and 3D screens for an incredibly long time. Close to 3 months for IMAX screens. Star Wars will have to give them up far sooner, as will Avatar 2, whenever that comes out.

That alone is reason enough to be pessimistic about Avatar 2's prospects vs the first one, stateside at least. It's worth being even more cautious when you consider the trends of blockbuster sequels decreasing from their predecessor domestically.
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Shhhh, no logic.
 
S

Shaanyboi

Banned
Posted this to the two main Star Wars OTs but..

Simpsons called this in 2009

6GuMbiAl.jpg
 
C

Charles Foster Kane

Rosebud
Branduil said:
Wait, they're predicting $160 million for TFA this weekend? That's utterly insane... is what I would say if not for what we have already witnessed.
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It was their fault the crazy 238M number didn't seem as it impressive to some as it would have. They fucking predicted 250-275 (Impressive that it actually did get to almost 250M).

I remember when BOM predicted something like 231 and people were like wow.
 
M

Michael F. Assbender

Banned
Discotheque said:
Abrams has hit his peak though, it's clear by now that he'll never be a great director imo (not a knock or anything, but he just can't seem to break that ceiling)
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I disagree. He has an amazing eye for action, and is a fantastic visual storyteller. I wouldn't say he's a top ten director, but to say he's not great is a bit much, IMO (although that largely depends on how one defines "great").

He gets a lot of shit for aping the styles of other directors. Meanwhile, people can't nuzzle Tarantino's balls enough when literally everything he does is a ripoff of 70s Hong Kong cinema, blaxploitation, and spaghetti western. The only difference is that he makes "art," so his aping gets to be called "homage," while Abrams makes general audience fare, so it's pap from a copycat hack.
 
B

Branduil

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
It was their fault the crazy 238M number didn't seem as it impressive to some as it would have. They fucking predicted 250-275 (Impressive that it actually did get to almost 250M).

I remember when BOM predicted something like 231 and people were like wow.
Click to expand...

Well, I mean, even $120 million would be insane, so if they're off by a similar percentage...
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
Branduil said:
I don't think HFR is going to be much of a box office draw considering the Hobbit already had it.
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3D had also been used multiple times for movies for avatar. Outside of forums like this nobody knows what HFR is or that it was used in the hobbit. The question is whether the advertising team for avatar 2 can make it seem like a game changer as they did with 3D back with the first avatar.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
AdventureRacing said:
Outside of forums like this nobody knows what HFR is or that it was used in the hobbit.
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I don't know if that's really the case, though. It was part of the marketing campaign back then, and there were articles specifically regarding the technological innovation and how it would enhance the 3D effect in a very noticeable, pleasing way.

People knew what it was. They just didn't LIKE IT.

The people pushing for HFR kinda sidestepped and began to say that the problem with the adoption was a combination of viewer inertia and choosing 48fps instead of 60.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Looks like a 35-37 mil Monday. Yeah this thing is playing like a December movie with a massive summer opening. Best of both worlds.

The question is quickly starting to look like not whether it will pass Avatar domestically, but when.
 
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