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Wkd Box Office 12•18-20•15 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m

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Nibel

Member
Marvel needs to break their formula; let one of them die or something - be radical. These movies have become too predictable
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
"Finally a good version of Spider-Man again" is going to be a big draw toward Civil War. The same kind of thing Star Wars is seeing now, though not nearly on the same level. It should be enough to ensure that it beats BvS, though.
 

a916

Member
Marketing for the Spider-Man film is key. As with TFA, they're gonna have to convince people that they're moving as far away from the previous films as possible.

There's been none. Outside of the press release there's been nothing other than talk from fans. If you're someone who isn't in deep with these films, and just rely on trailers and marketing, you have no idea Spider-Man is in here.

People are vastly over estimating the amount of people who even know he's in here. Marvel hasn't acknowledged it with their marketing yet.
 

KingKong

Member
there were like 4 superhero movie trailers when I saw Star Wars and they all looked like total garbage but Im sure theyll make a billion each so what do I know
 
There's been none. Outside of the press release there's been nothing other than talk from fans. If you're someone who isn't in deep with these films, and just rely on trailers and marketing, you have no idea Spider-Man is in here.

People are vastly over estimating the amount of people who even know he's in here. Marvel hasn't acknowledged it with their marketing yet.

I know that. I mean when they actually start marking for the film.
 

Cheebo

Banned
For fun, top 5 as I see it for 2016 box-office right now:

2016:
1. Rogue One
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Missing the cut:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Ghostbusters
Doctor Strange
Suicide Squad
Jason Bourne 5
Star Trek Beyond
Alice Through the Looking Glass

I am still really iffy on a Potter spin-off featuring none of the known Potter characters or the traditional tropes of the school and so on. That teaser seemed to get no buzz whatsoever. Barring reception to trailers and so on I think Ghostbusters could legitimately be a dark horse #5 though. JW and TFA taught me to never under-estimate 80s/90s movie nostalgia.

Warcraft is going to be a massive bomb, sorry Duncan Jones.

The bigger and more relevant question is ... TFA > Civil War + BvS?

Domestic? Without question. Worldwide depends. TFA will finish over 2 bil. Can both Civil War and BvS get a billion each? I think Civil War can, I suspect it will play more like an Avengers movie than a Captain America one.
 

Chamber

love on your sleeve
For fun, top 5 as I see it for 2016 box-office right now:

2016:
1. Rogue One
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Missing the cut:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Ghostbusters
Doctor Strange
Suicide Squad
Jason Bourne 5
Star Trek Beyond
Alice Through the Looking Glass

I am still really iffy on a Potter spin-off featuring none of the known Potter characters or the traditional tropes of the school and so on. That teaser seemed to get no buzz whatsoever.

Barring reception to trailers and so on I think Ghostbusters could legitimately be a dark horse #5 though. JW and TFA taught me to never under-estimate 80s/90s movie nostalgia.

Warcraft is going to be a massive bomb, sorry Duncan Jones.

You forgot Dory which I think is top 5, maybe top 3, maybe #1.

I also think Suicide Squad and Ghostbusters outgross X-Men domestically.
 
I was gonna say "I don't know about Rogue One" but if they put Vader in the motherfucker...

I also think Ghostbusters could be pretty huge. And Suicide Squad might outdo Independence Day 2.
 

rjinaz

Member
For fun, top 5 as I see it for 2016 box-office right now:

2016:
1. Rogue One
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Missing the cut:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Ghostbusters
Doctor Strange
Suicide Squad
Jason Bourne 5
Star Trek Beyond
Alice Through the Looking Glass

I am still really iffy on a Potter spin-off featuring none of the known Potter characters or the traditional tropes of the school and so on. That teaser seemed to get no buzz whatsoever. Barring reception to trailers and so on I think Ghostbusters could legitimately be a dark horse #5 though. JW and TFA taught me to never under-estimate 80s/90s movie nostalgia.

Warcraft is going to be a massive bomb, sorry Duncan Jones.

I don't think Rogue One will be #1. My guess is people won't want to go "back in time" with their Star Wars after the prequels.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I don't think Rogue One will be #1. My guess is people won't want to go "back in time" with their Star Wars after the prequels.

This isn't a normal prequel. Darth Vader walking into frame in the trailer with James Earl Jones booming voice coming out of that helmet? Just as big of a deal and a pop culture moment as the "Chewie were home" from Han in the TFA tesaer.
 

Branduil

Member
I really don't know what to think about Rogue 1. On the one hand, Star Wars has just proven its still the king of franchises. OTOH, it will be a prequel starring mostly a bunch of people and characters nobody has ever heard of(outside of probably Vader), and might be fairly different from the typical Star Wars experience. I expect it will be big, maybe Avengers and Jurassic World big, but probably not that close to TFA.
 

Cheebo

Banned
I mean, there's only one way Rogue One ends, right

The timing of it means it will have Vader unless Lucasfilm and Disney decide they hate money. Marketing the hell out of Vader with JEJ back and all that is just too easy to pass up. Look at how much they advertised Vader for Episode III when he had like 2 minutes of screen-time. Vader = $

I really don't know what to think about Rogue 1. On the one hand, Star Wars has just proven its still the king of franchises. OTOH, it will be a prequel starring mostly a bunch of people and characters nobody has ever heard of(outside of probably Vader), and might be fairly different from the typical Star Wars experience. I expect it will be big, maybe Avengers and Jurassic World big, but probably not that close to TFA.

It will be no TFA. But doing over a billion worldwide and 450 mil domestic will be enough to win the year. There won't be a TFA/JW like event next year.

I say that then someone will quote this after Ghostbusters goes and pulls a Jurassic World.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
If they put Vader in Rogue One, right smack in the middle of the trailers, then it will make bank.
Doesn't look like they'll be too shy to do that. They already showed the deathstar in that footage at that con didn't they.
 

a916

Member
For fun, top 5 as I see it for 2016 box-office right now:

2016:
1. Rogue One
2. Captain America: Civil War
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. X-Men: Apocalypse

Missing the cut:
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
Ghostbusters
Doctor Strange
Suicide Squad
Jason Bourne 5
Star Trek Beyond
Alice Through the Looking Glass

I am still really iffy on a Potter spin-off featuring none of the known Potter characters or the traditional tropes of the school and so on. That teaser seemed to get no buzz whatsoever. Barring reception to trailers and so on I think Ghostbusters could legitimately be a dark horse #5 though. JW and TFA taught me to never under-estimate 80s/90s movie nostalgia.

Warcraft is going to be a massive bomb, sorry Duncan Jones.



Domestic? Without question. Worldwide depends. TFA will finish over 2 bil. Can both Civil War and BvS get a billion each? I think Civil War can, I suspect it will play more like an Avengers movie than a Captain America one.

That's a lot of promise considering none of the X-Men titles have entered the top 100 domestically.
 

Chamber

love on your sleeve
Rogue One could do half the business of Episode 7 and still bring in 400-450m domestic which is just crazy. I wouldn't be shocked if it was #1.
 

rjinaz

Member
This isn't a normal prequel. Darth Vader walking into frame in the trailer with James Earl Jones booming voice coming out of that helmet? Just as big of a deal and a pop culture moment as the "Chewie were home" from Han in the TFA tesaer.

Well technically Darth Vader was in Revenge of the Sith as well.

I mean I have no doubt it will do really well. Just not sure #1 well.
 
I was gonna say "I don't know about Rogue One" but if they put Vader in the motherfucker...'

I also think Ghostbusters could be pretty huge. And Suicide Squad might outdo Independence Day 2.

That's gonna be the X-Factor. The story sounds good, the cast looks great, so it'll do really well. But that first trailer drops and you hear that fucking rebreather, holy shit.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Well technically Darth Vader was in Revenge of the Sith as well.

I mean I have no doubt it will do really well. Just not sure #1 well.

Darth Vader being central to the marketing of Episode III was a HUGE reason why the box-office rebounded so much from Attack of the Clones.
 

a916

Member
I was gonna say "I don't know about Rogue One" but if they put Vader in the motherfucker...

I also think Ghostbusters could be pretty huge. And Suicide Squad might outdo Independence Day 2.

My own response, I was beyond hyped for Force Awakens, so many questions and intrigue going in... with Rogue One it's a very tepid response of "okay, I'll go watch it because I like this world, but when does Episode 8 come out?" I already know how it ends, the mystery is removed for a large part and there will probably be a severe lack of the Force/Jedis if any.

Rogue One could do half the business of Episode 7 and still bring in 400-450m domestic which is just crazy. I wouldn't be shocked if it was #1.

Force Awakens is going to hit nearly a billion in domestic alone? Damn if that happened...
 

Boke1879

Member
If they put Vader in Rogue One, right smack in the middle of the trailers, then it will make bank.
Doesn't look like they'll be too shy to do that. They already showed the deathstar in that footage at that con didn't they.

IT's huge marketing opportunity and they would be fools not to include Vader in a trailer.
 

Nibel

Member
I was gonna say "I don't know about Rogue One" but if they put Vader in the motherfucker...

ethqLAJ.gif


Fuck, that thought hasn't even occured to me.

Another thing that makes me excited for the Rogue One performance is that the cast seems very diverse with a lot of big names attached to it; I wonder how much impact that will have, especially in the foreign markets
 

Cheebo

Banned
People went nuts for the Independence Day trailer when I saw TFA. Nostalgia power is real on that one. Personally I really don't care about it at all but 90s kids are all over that. Will do great.
 

Jarmel

Banned
I really don't know what to think about Rogue 1. On the one hand, Star Wars has just proven its still the king of franchises. OTOH, it will be a prequel starring mostly a bunch of people and characters nobody has ever heard of(outside of probably Vader), and might be fairly different from the typical Star Wars experience. I expect it will be big, maybe Avengers and Jurassic World big, but probably not that close to TFA.

Vader wrecking fools will be the draw. At the end of the film, I imagine there really is going to be only one Rogue.
 
I can't imagine Suicide Squad not selling gangbusters.

Trailer got a huge reception (upwards 50 million), it's been all over social media (joker reveal, trailer), it's got big name stars and characters (Joker, Harley and Batman)

I mean come on, no way in high hell this flops
 

Boke1879

Member
I can't imagine Suicide Squad not selling gangbusters.

Trailer got a huge reception (upwards 50 million), it's been all over social media (joker reveal, trailer), it's got big name stars and characters (Joker, Harley and Batman)

I mean come on, no way in high hell this flops

Yea it's why I don't put stock in internet reactions really. On twitter you had people hating it because Leto isn't their ideal version of the Joker.
 

Kusagari

Member
Top 5 next year domestically will be in some order:

Rogue One
Civil War
BvS
Finding Dory
Independence Day

I'd be shocked at anything else.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Keep in mind Rogue One will be coming off Force Awakens. Star Wars is at an all time high at the moment. People are going to be THIRSTY for more Star Wars come December 2016, even if it's not a numbered installment.

Throw Vader in that mother fucker and we've got a billion dollar flick, easily.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Top 5 next year domestically will be in some order:

Rogue One
Civil War
BvS
Finding Dory
Independence Day

I'd be shocked at anything else.
Forgot about Dory! Yeah that's gong to be huge.

Jeez, Disney has Star Wars, Iron Man vs Cap, and a Finding Nemo sequel all in one year.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
As far as the X-Men films go, the only one that had a chance of breaking the Top 5 was DoFP. And while it did solid numbers, it wasn't that big (if I recall correctly). It beat Winter Soldier, sure, but Guardians edged it out.

And concerning Civil War vs. BvS, I do agree with one post form earlier. If Civil War is the better film of the two, it'll win thanks to word-of-mouth. If BvS is better than or equal to Civil War, BvS will win.
 
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