Based on how the first did I don't think there will be another. It's another a Pacific Rim 2/Tron 3 situation. They'll humor fans but the movie didn't make money so they won't be in any hurry to do it and it fades away after people forget about it.
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Wkd Box Office 1218-2015 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Yup. And summer is responsible for basically all of them. It's better than it was some years ago, thanks to movies like THG showing you can open a blockbuster at any time, but there's still a lot of the calendar year that is unused. Hopefully American Sniper convinces studios January doesn't have to be a wasteland, too.
Future Foundation
Member
Shit, I completely forgot Hunger Games coming out in mid-March.
Future Foundation
Member
When do we start seeing more January/February movies?
ViewtifulJC
Banned
In Jan/Feb, I assume
The Last One
Member
Yeah I know, its all good between us.
BronsonLee
Member
Yeah I know, its all good between us.
Nah fuck you *uppercut*
Future Foundation
Member
hodayathink
Member
January may take longer, because I think studios still see that as a time to take your Oscar-caliber movies wide (American Sniper technically released the last week of 2014), but February is already happening, with movies like 50 Shades and Kingsman and Spongebob this year, and Deadpool and Zoolander 2 next year.
As long as you keep it above the belt
BronsonLee
Member
FloydtheFathead
Member
No MercyThere are two rules in life
Strike first
Aim low
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Was playing some WWF No Mercy last night with the family, and I'll be fucked if I couldn't figure how to pin someone.
There are two rules in life
Strike first
Aim low
We be fast....
And THEY be slow!!!
Oh wait. That's not right
We know what we like and we like what we know. U-S-A, U-S-A
I wonder how long until a new IP that isn't made by Cameron cracks the top 10.
I would have thought Frozen but it's not even in the top 20 :O
Probably never
BronsonLee
Member
I have to imagine that, EVENTUALLY, something will come along. It might be a long time, though.
The new Star Wars. It'll come up out of nowhere and take over the world.
People are less likely to spend money on something completely new now than they were in the past.
hodayathink
Member
What will happen is that that movie will end up being top 20/top 30, then the sequel to it will end up in the top 10.
Exactly. The Hunger Games was the closest we have had to a non-sequel breaking the domestic Top 10 since Avatar. And even that was a super huge book phenomenon before being made into a movie.
I wonder how much of it has to to with the evolving nature of franchises. Before film franchises typically were trilogies. 3 and done. Studios rolled the dice often hoping they had a potential new franchise with a film. If it worked, pump out 2 more and move on.
Now they never-ending. Previously the ones like that were few and far between (James Bond). Now be it Star Wars, Marvel, & DC with their cinematic universes. To franchises that just refuse to disappear like Harry Potter, Fast/Furious, Transformers...etc.
Franchises come and then stay. Forever. Often propped up by overseas audience which seem to have a far more difficult time burning out on franchises than domestic audiences do. Which sucks up the air in the room for new franchises to even have any hope of finding an audience let alone being green-lit.
As much as I love Star Wars I am sure there will come a day where I grow tired and the anticipation is no longer there with the never-ending future of films. You can only have ice cream for breakfast so many times before the fun wears out. But I am sure when that day comes for me the overall audience, especially overseas will not stop. As is the case for nearly every other successful franchise in modern times.
It's gonna be impossible for any movie to top TFA in the US with what its looking like it will gross because the single biggest reason TFA is doing so well is that its 30+ years of anticipation for seeing the return of characters that literally several generations grew up with(being good helps too)
Its such a unique case, nothing else can claim that kind of anticipation
Well damn.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
If that's closer to 58 than 55, that's around a 10 mil Saturday to Saturday drop.
Means it's likely gonna get close to 160 for the three-day.
KSWIS WHAT DOES THIS MEAN.
hodayathink
Member
I mean, look at Inside Out. A new IP from a studio that hadn't made an unsuccessful movie (at that point) that was also a critical darling that had great word of mouth. And that barely made it to #4 domestic this year (it's only ahead of Furious 7 by $3 million according to BoxOfficeMojo).
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
Is this higher or lower than expected a couple days ago?
I originally guessed this back on Wednesday:
Friday - $48M
Saturday - $55M
Sunday - $46M
Second Weekend = $149M
So I guess, $155M +/- $5M depending on what end of that range we get on Saturday and on how Sunday holds up. Rth's last couple of days have come in closer to the lower end of his range, but even $55M is still a pretty good boost from $49.3M.
CreepingFear
Member
I loved Inside Out, but it's some depressing shit. I can see even kiddies not wanting to see it as much as they wanted to see Frozen.
hodayathink
Member
I don't know. Toy Story 2 gets pretty depressing in the middle (I mean, really). And let's not talk about the ending to Toy Story 3.
That would only be a little more than a 20% drop from last weekend's number minus previews. Pretty crazy, even with Xmas. I would have to check, but I don't think any of the $150M+ openers have dropped less than 40% from their first weekend minus previews.
Hell, even with the previews, Star Wars would only be down 39% if this weekend is $152M
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Nah. Not KSwis. K-Swiss.
like so.
Why the 2nd Sunday at 46 instead of closer to 50-52?
CreepingFear
Member
Certainly, being abandoned or losing friends is sad, but losing cherished memories, imagination, and dreams was a little more personal and devastating. That's how I see it, at least.
Avatar had the best drop in the Top 10 back on Sun, Dec 27th, 2009. It dropped 14.2%.
Basically, I figured that Star Wars wouldn't hold quite as well as Avatar through the weekend, and went with a 16% drop on Sunday. That works out to around $46M from 55.
EDIT: The only films that have had a better drop than 16% on the equivalent Sunday in the past three years were Frozen and Les Miserables, and both of those were over 15%. Figured Star Wars would be in the same range.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Thanks man.
Obviously I could be wrong, and we could get a $50M+ Sunday, especially if Saturday is higher. However, I expect at least the estimate to be under that if Rth is right on his Saturday range.
So it's been 13.5 years since Spider-Man broke the $100M barrier for the first time. We have since had 33 other films hit that mark. Here's a list of $100M openers that have had a 40% or less drop in weekend #2:
Spider-man (2002) - 37.8% drop
Shrek 2 (2004) - 33.2% drop (second weekend was Memorial day weekend)
So 2 out of 33 films (also the first two films to ever hit that mark), and none in the past decade. Star Wars has a chance at being the third to hit that mark, despite opening to close to 2.5x the $100M barrier.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Agreed on this analysis. The only caveat being that sold out showings could push a lot of business to tomorrow, resulting in a 10% or less decline like on OW. For the moment, though, 15% is probably the best we should hope for.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Even if a third 100M weekend doesn't happen (which is crazy to begin with), TFA will definitely have 3 weekends over the previous December record holder.
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