hodayathink
Member
And more than likely it's third weekend will be the biggest January weekend ever (the record right now is American Sniper with 89M).
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Wkd Box Office 1218-2015 - Force Awakens does good... gOOOood, opens w/ $248m
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And more than likely it's third weekend will be the biggest January weekend ever (the record right now is American Sniper with 89M).
igordennis
Member
Thats crazy.
You and bobby make this thread awesome. Love reading your insights.
I know I am late to the party on the 2016 prediction talk, but I don't think it is possible to call a winner this early.
I have a hard time seeing BvS under $400M domestic given the fact that Man of Steel was close to $300M, and the previous two Batman films were ~$450M and $535M. The film may have Age of Ultron legs, but I think the opening will be plenty big for that not to matter a ton. BvS being the first tentpole blockbuster since Star Wars should also help.
Civil War is a big question mark. $300M is a safe bet given Cap 2's performance, and the fact that this has Iron Man and Spider-Man. Normally, I'd guess over $400M for this as well, but we will have to see if Age of Ultron had a negative effect on the crossover franchise.
Finding Dory makes $357M domestic if it has a bump like Monsters University. If it has a bump like Toy Story 3, you get, $574M. I am going to guess that the bump will be more like the former for obvious reasons, but this could be the film that finally takes Shrek 2's top domestic animation crown.
Rogue One will obviously do really well, but who knows how well. With the post-Avengers MCU films, we at least had a baseline for comparison. There's never been much in the way of theatrical Star Wars spinoffs other than the Clone Wars pilot that was turned into a quick Cinema release.
Independence Day Resurgence is a bit of a question mark. I feel like it will be shit, but that hasn't stopped other 90s revivals from earning $600M domestic.
I don't know that any of the others have a shot at more than $400M domestic. Harry Potter was never THAT big domestically. I doubt the spin-off will top the series high mark. I think that Warcraft is more likely to make $80M than $400M. Ghostbusters and Star Trek are films that I expect to be in the $175-250M range. Same with Suicide Squad and Doctor Strange. One of them might break out, but I don't think anyone has a solid case for why at this point.
Through the Looking Glass will be interesting to watch. The first one was huge, but I haven't really heard much clamoring for a sequel.
I have a hard time seeing BvS under $400M domestic given the fact that Man of Steel was close to $300M, and the previous two Batman films were ~$450M and $535M. The film may have Age of Ultron legs, but I think the opening will be plenty big for that not to matter a ton. BvS being the first tentpole blockbuster since Star Wars should also help.
Civil War is a big question mark. $300M is a safe bet given Cap 2's performance, and the fact that this has Iron Man and Spider-Man. Normally, I'd guess over $400M for this as well, but we will have to see if Age of Ultron had a negative effect on the crossover franchise.
Finding Dory makes $357M domestic if it has a bump like Monsters University. If it has a bump like Toy Story 3, you get, $574M. I am going to guess that the bump will be more like the former for obvious reasons, but this could be the film that finally takes Shrek 2's top domestic animation crown.
Rogue One will obviously do really well, but who knows how well. With the post-Avengers MCU films, we at least had a baseline for comparison. There's never been much in the way of theatrical Star Wars spinoffs other than the Clone Wars pilot that was turned into a quick Cinema release.
Independence Day Resurgence is a bit of a question mark. I feel like it will be shit, but that hasn't stopped other 90s revivals from earning $600M domestic.
I don't know that any of the others have a shot at more than $400M domestic. Harry Potter was never THAT big domestically. I doubt the spin-off will top the series high mark. I think that Warcraft is more likely to make $80M than $400M. Ghostbusters and Star Trek are films that I expect to be in the $175-250M range. Same with Suicide Squad and Doctor Strange. One of them might break out, but I don't think anyone has a solid case for why at this point.
Through the Looking Glass will be interesting to watch. The first one was huge, but I haven't really heard much clamoring for a sequel.
ehretreue.m.h
Banned
Saw this last night with my wife. Planning on seeing it with my dad tomorrow again, because holy shit is it good. Friends will probably see it with me Monday or Tuesday and then I'll go watch it with my girlfriend again later this week. Movie with no cracks or flaws in it at all.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I'm more excited to see how the Benghazzi and Zoolander movie does.
I don't think the Potter spin-off will do well, the trailer didn't inspire much confidence, but I shouldn't doubt the power of JK Rowling, the woman is seriously talented.
I don't think the Potter spin-off will do well, the trailer didn't inspire much confidence, but I shouldn't doubt the power of JK Rowling, the woman is seriously talented.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
BvS: My gut tells me that this is doing sub-$400M, but I may be letting my feelings towards the latest trailer clouding my thoughts. Everything about the way WB is handling this film and the JL universe is just wrong, IMO. I do believe, though, that this a film that can be easily be sold to millions with a few money shots in TV spots, and that's a place WB is often very adept at. Just for the love of God, don't put more focus on Lex than you have to you.
Civil War: Again, TV spots will be essential here. If the material is there to market this as a huge superhero vs superhero mash, then it could outgross Ultron. For now, I'll go with $375M
Dory: If Pixar can bring the quality here, I don't think there's anything stopping this from becoming the highest grossing film of the year, at least domestically. At revered as Toy Story is, Nemo is even moreso and to more people. I'd say it's easily the most popular Pixar film, even 12 years later, and so the potential for over $500M is easily there.
Rogue One: Darth Vader in the teaser and I'll be predicting a $150+M opening, easy.
Independence Day: If this had Will Smith, I'd probably predict $500M here too. ID4 is probably the definitive summer blockbuster of the 90s, along with Jurassic Park. Even without Smith, the nostalgia is going to be really significant here. I see $400+M.
Alice 2: I'll be shocked if this done more than $150M. It's currently scheduled to go head to head with a possible $100+M opener, and the first one is pretty much the definitive "in the moment" blockbuster. It benefitted so much from the post-Avatar 3D hype, and there's not a single person I know that actually liked it.
Edit: Forgot about Suicide Squad. I think the potential here is absolutely massive. The concept is unique and the trailer blew up the internet even more than the BvS trailer. I wouldn't be surprised if it destroys the records Guardians of the Galaxy set for an August release.
Civil War: Again, TV spots will be essential here. If the material is there to market this as a huge superhero vs superhero mash, then it could outgross Ultron. For now, I'll go with $375M
Dory: If Pixar can bring the quality here, I don't think there's anything stopping this from becoming the highest grossing film of the year, at least domestically. At revered as Toy Story is, Nemo is even moreso and to more people. I'd say it's easily the most popular Pixar film, even 12 years later, and so the potential for over $500M is easily there.
Rogue One: Darth Vader in the teaser and I'll be predicting a $150+M opening, easy.
Independence Day: If this had Will Smith, I'd probably predict $500M here too. ID4 is probably the definitive summer blockbuster of the 90s, along with Jurassic Park. Even without Smith, the nostalgia is going to be really significant here. I see $400+M.
Alice 2: I'll be shocked if this done more than $150M. It's currently scheduled to go head to head with a possible $100+M opener, and the first one is pretty much the definitive "in the moment" blockbuster. It benefitted so much from the post-Avatar 3D hype, and there's not a single person I know that actually liked it.
Edit: Forgot about Suicide Squad. I think the potential here is absolutely massive. The concept is unique and the trailer blew up the internet even more than the BvS trailer. I wouldn't be surprised if it destroys the records Guardians of the Galaxy set for an August release.
piratepwnsninja
Member
whaaaaaaa?
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Ninja Scooter
Member
I just am not seeing ID2 being big at all. It feels so low rent w/o Smith aboard, something Jurassic World somehow avoided even though they didn't bring back any of the original stars. It feels like another generic Emmerich disaster movie.
QuantumZebra
Member
Frysquinting.gif
Maybe a typo? Otherwise the advice he was giving in that thread about losing a girl and wanting her back is really something.
TheKaeptain
Banned
Suicide Squad is going to be like GotG money wise mainly because of Joker.
ehretreue.m.h
Banned
Just joshing. For real though, saw it last night, but my girlfriend was sick, so I'm taking her to see it this week sometime.
That movie made a billion dollars.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm pretty sure I saw this gag in reverse already with in relation to Star Wars lol
My theory re: Jurassic World is that the concept was what people wanted out of a sequel from the beginning: a fully operational park coming under siege from dinosaurs. TFA is tapping into this desire too. This is where Terminator Genisys failed. I think that ID2 is in the former category by having humans fighting back with alien tech, though I can understand where the skepticism comes from.
RumblingRosco
Member
My wife and I finally saw TFA tonight. 4:55 PM showing and it was literally sold out (they announced it over the speaker system in the theater's main lobby). I think they had 10 showtimes for TFA today at least at that theater (one of two in my town). More anecdotal fuel to the fire.
Thanks to the 3D boom.
If it wasn't for that it would have made Charlie and the Chocolate Factory money.
Ninja Scooter
Member
an example of when listening to the vocal minority in certain pockets of the internet clouds reality. Alice may not have been a good movie, but it was a monster hit and seemed to be a merchandise darling with the Hot Topic crowd. I doubt the sequel does the same business but acting like it's "dead" seems silly.
Lol yeah I thought maybe it was the same poster, that's when I found that other quote from another thread.
Anyway....
Star Wars has me all shook up, I don't know what to predict on next year's movies. Most of them I see great potential, but then I also think they might not do as well as many would think. So I go back and forth. I think BvS will hit 1 billion but that's about as far as I'm willing to guess right now.
Obliterator
Member
Rogue One is really interesting to me to see how it does. I'm not even sure how I feel about it myself. Its like there is so much mystery now in the franchise people want to know WHATS NEXT are people going to be thrilled to go watch a side story spin off? I mean don't get me wrong, it will be big I just don't really know how big or not it will be.
I'm in the same boat.
It's like Star Wars relaunched with an Avengers movie and now we get to see how Iron Man 1 will perform.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
I'm more curious as to whether Rogue One will affect EpVIII's BO, considering they release so close.
Calamari41
41 > 38
My local (big) theater in Southern California was packed like Disneyland tonight. I've never seen it like this, and I'm here for all the big "event" opening weekends. Complete age and gender mix, too.
That hot topic crowd is going to have to put in a lot of work then. Alice was big because of the 3D boom that Avatar started, and Johnny Depp who was still a major box office draw at the time. Neither of those factors are going to help it this time. And launching against X-Men is not going to go well.
Ninja Scooter
Member
I'm not saying it will match the billion the original did, but if it does like $700 or $800 worldwide, would you describe that as "dead"?
No, but I'd be amazed if it hit $700m.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Yeah Alice's box office was directly related to Avatar's success. It's the film that knocked Avatar off screens due to Disney's engagements with theatres. It was the 3D film that followed directly after Avatar and cashed in all the 3D good will that Avatar started. It and other shit like Clash of the Titans started to fuck that good will pretty quick.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
That sounds good. What's the budget?
Definitely will be less than the main episodes. But if they market it right it could make some serious bank. Like many others have posted. I'm really betting on the fact that in a trailer they'll either put in Vader's breathing or they show him with JEJ's voice.
Personally I think he'll be in the movie in some capacity. Isn't it essentially Vaders mission to find the plans and the rebellion? So I feel that in Rogue One once the plans actually get stolen that's when they bring Vader in the mix.
If people know Vader will be in the movie in any capacity that'll get butts in seats.
It's supposed to be relatively low, but that could be $80-100M and still be true for a comic film
Oh yeah, I'm with you there. I can't imagine the trailers not selling the ever-;loving hell out of Vader.
The other main goal will be showcasing the ensemble approach -- fast, memorable, catchy shots of various recognizable faces doing things.
Can the popularity of Deadpool overcome Ryan Reynolds' box office history? Can't wait to find out.
My sister went to see TFA today. She loved it and she never watched a Star Wars movie before. She now wants to watch all of the Star Wars movies with Luke Skywalker in it.
This is the last thing I expected from the force awakens
That's the beauty of it all. This will be the introduction of SW to a lot of people and seeing her excited to get into is amazing.
That said. It's nice how she mentioned she wants to see the movies with Luke. All things considered lol.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I remember how shook I was when I saw the BO numbers for Prince Caspian. I was completely convinced it would open to $100+M and finish with over $350M, haha. That and Pirates 3's first Saturday might be the biggest kick in the nuts I've ever had following the BO.
edit: Indy 4's Thursday was a bad one too, and only a week later! At least that one recovered over the w/e though.
Obliterator
Member
I didn't even realize Vader was in Rogue One, that could change things quite a bit if he has any real capacity in it
Yup. That'll be a good way to help sell it as well. I think the way they handle the tone will be interesting and it's what I want to see the most. I know it'll be different from the main saga. I know they compared it to a war movie. But it'll be interesting to see how they do that and make it uniquely Star Wars.
I know this has been talked do death, but I can't really see the younger generation being introduced to Star Wars for the first time via TFA liking the OT nearly as much as the new film. It's an old movie series. As old as Ben Hur would have been to most of us 30+ GAF members when we were kids.
My sister went to see TFA today. She loved it and she never watched a Star Wars movie before. She now wants to watch all of the Star Wars movies with Luke Skywalker in it.
This is the last thing I expected from the force awakens
Kinda makes sense imo.
I'm sure Vader will be in Rogue One for a bit. In the new canon,
Vader let the Rebel spies steal the Death Star plans on purpose.
Exactly haha.
I legit never heard a single person watch the prequels and want to check out the other Star Wars movies.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
$48 million total for Zoolander 2. Wut.
Dey on crack, it's got the Biebs. Never bet against the Biebs.
Where in the new canon is the spoilered bit explained? ANH makes clear that he lets Han, Luke, and Leia escape the Deathstar on purpose in order to lead them to the rebels but the spoilered bits would change some of the stuff in ANH depending on how it is explained.
We don't know for sure if he'll be in the movie, but imo it makes the most sense. He's around during this time and we know in ANH he's looking for the plans. Rogue One leads right up to ANH.
It just makes sense imo. Vader is iconic. Outside of horror movies he's to me the most recognizable villain in cinema. Hell you just need to hear his breathing to get chills.
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