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[KingV]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/08/why-did-trump-win-more-whites-and-fewer-blacks-than-normal-actually-voted/?utm_term=.bd3dcdfd412e

These national averages obscure important patterns. Here’s what stands out: while the decline in black turnout was stark across the board, it was sharpest, on average, in the states that determined the outcome of the election. Black turnout fell by 4.3 percentage points in non-battleground states in 2016 compared to 2012. But it fell by 5.3 percentage points in states where the election was decided by a margin of less than 10 points.

I had not seen this posted yet.

I would hope to encourage people to avoid having this being a pie fight over racial politics, because IMO the situation is far more complex than that:

My hot takes:
- there is a confluence of factors that determined the election, and no single cause was the determining factor:Russia, Comey, Racism, Hillary's unfavorables, poor campaign strategy, and voter suppression

- The idea that a white woman could double down on the Obama coalition may have been flawed. It is probably hard to generate the same enthusiasm as Barack Obama among PoCs as a white person (trump being so incredibly awful may help in 2018 and 2020.)
- A PoC that is "acceptable" to white people may be the strongest possible demographic candidate for the Democratic Party, but it may also be that the historic significance of Barack Obama can not be duplicated again in that way.
- This may point to the other evidence of her campaign being a shitshow. We know the ground game and campaigning was almost nonexistent in the "Firewall" and it shows here. The biggest declines were in Wisconsin and Michigan.
- All elections are turnout elections. On the margins you can have switchers but GOTV wins elections.
- this does not disprove racism as a factor, it just doesn't measure it evenly. Racism may account for some of the white turnout increase (as could other factors), racism also decreased black turnout with voter suppression, but I'm unaware of any estimates of how much of a factor it was.
- Comeys letter was probably still a factor, pushing these numbers one way or another
- overall, I think the answer is super complex about why. This tells you WHAT happened, but not WHY. IMO, in 2018 and beyond the party should focus on fundamentals. Have the right message for the different groups of voters. Talk to them a lot. Have a ground game explaining that message, get them to the polls on Election Day. It's not about identity politics or economic messaging, it's about having both and making sure the right people get the right message.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I know some of this was due to voter suppression, but man, I just can't imagine any black voter not looking at the situation and saying, 'Well, I'm not sure about that, but I sure as fuck will vote against the other option.' I don't really see how we didn't see record turnout from all minority groups to be honest.

 

[Mesousa]

I know some of this was due to voter suppression, but man, I just can't imagine any black voter not looking at the situation and saying, 'Well, I'm not sure about that, but I sure as fuck will vote against the other option.' I don't really see how we didn't see record turnout from all minority groups to be honest.

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

 

[Guevara]

holy shit those drops in MI and WI

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I agree that the campaign failed miserably in the rust belt. That doesn't mean that many Trump voters were motivated by racism,.or that one huge reason that the emails scandal never went away was because of misogyny. It is very clear that there's a double standard where Hillary is considered the corrupt one in a race against Donald Trump. Also, Republican voter suppression tactics were successful I guess.

 

[Mortemis]

I think we talked about this before here, but yeah not the least bit surprised with Wisconsin having one of the biggest declines with their voter suppression laws.

 

[jmizzal]

It wouldnt not have mattered if the same amount of blacks voted during the Obama elections, the black vote makes a such a small %.

It came down to the white demarcates that stayed home, and the white republicans that went to vote.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

The Beast of Both Sides has awoken

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

Seems like your problem that you can't let something go that happened 20 years ago and has been repeatedly apologized for.

I'm sure the current state of affairs is really good for you.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

holy shit those drops in MI and WI

Curious to see how this aligns with voter suppression laws.

 

[gcubed]

Curious to see how this aligns with voter suppression laws.

Wisconsin definitely, and Michigan I can see people just giving up because of the shit show of their state

 

[TestOfTide]

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

On one hand I do agree that Hillary was the wrong candidate to run on criminal justice reform, even if she did a lot to basically apologize for previous views on tough on crime laws.

On the other hand, while TODAY everyone who isn't a deplorable knows we need criminal justice reform, a lot of people's views on tough on crime laws have evolved over the last few decades.

For example, even back in the 90s a lot of older African Americans were in support of tough on crime laws:

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.slat...ed_the_1994_crime_bill_championed_by_the.html

I'm not disagreeing that tough on crime laws were clearly racist policies. But it had the support of more than just racists years ago.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

Oooof at Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

[Intheflorsh]

I think we talked about this before here, but yeah not the least bit surprised with Wisconsin having one of the biggest declines with their voter suppression laws.

How much of this was caused by voter suppression and how much was caused by the campaign itself is a good question.

If anything's clear though, it's that Hillary definitely should have visited the rust belt more.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Imagine how bad it would have been if Bernie got the nomination. Non-white voters chose Hillary 4:1 over him in the primaries.

 

[Maedre]

The land of the free...

 

[Maxim726X]

holy shit those drops in MI and WI

Jesus H Christ.

Well, there's the election folks.

Just how bad was the voter suppression?

 

[Mesousa]

Seems like your problem that you can't let something go that happened 20 years ago and has been repeatedly apologized for.

I'm sure the current state of affairs is really good for you.

Doesn't look like black people have a problem really. The population voted in record numbers when there was a candidate that inspired change, and returned to normal/average when uncharismatic "Meh" was given as a choice.

 

[KingV]

Curious to see how this aligns with voter suppression laws.

I thought about the same thing when posting, but adding a couple of quotes was already hard enough on mobile during my lunch break.

 

[OG Shaka Zulu]

Imagine how bad it would have been if Bernie got the nomination. Non-white voters chose Hillary 4:1 over him in the primaries.

POC who went Hillary for primaries would have went Bernie in the general.

 

[R0ckman]

There are a lot of factors. For instance there are a lot of movements in the community that basically foster sentiments that leads to giving up on the system entirely. I guess Trump saying - "What have you got to lose?" Was responded with a "Nothing, so why even vote."

 

[Wilsongt]

That chart explains the MI and WI loss, but not PA

 

[Lord Frieza]

Doesn't look like black people have a problem really. The population voted in record numbers when there was a candidate that inspired change, and returned to normal/average when uncharismatic "Meh" was given as a choice.

But then didn't see the absolutely devastating change for the worst in Trump?

 

[steveovig]

If Hillary's campaign was a shit show then what was Trump's? There were a lot of factors that contributed to her loss but I don't blame too much of it on her campaign. Sure, they should have stuck with MI and WI but I'm sure their polling said they had those states. The first Comey investigation didn't help matters for her credibility. Then the Wikileaks DNC leaks turned a lot of impressionable Bernie voters against her because she "cheated." I bet by the time that last Comey letter came out, many voters were locked in.

Trump was a movement, whether we like it or not. She was the status quo and Bernie and Trump did a good job selling the narrative that we didn't want that any more. A lot of us assumed that because we knew how unqualified Trump was, that everyone else would too.

 

[Maxim726X]

That chart explains the MI and WI loss, but not PA

PA always could have gone either way- It was close leading up to election day.

MI and WI were shocking, and this is largely why.

 

[SlimySnake]

Michigan and Wisconsin my god.

 

[plagiarize]

POC who went Hillary for primaries would have went Bernie in the general.

More would have stayed home with Bernie on the ticket. Search your feelings. You know it to be true.

 

[Mortemis]

It wouldnt not have mattered if the same amount of blacks voted during the Obama elections, the black vote makes a such a small %.

It came down to the white demarcates that stayed home, and the white republicans that went to vote.

As well as whites who voted for Obama voting for Trump.

How much of this was caused by voter suppression and how much was caused by the campaign itself is a good question.

If anything's clear though, it's that Hillary definitely should have visited the rust belt more.

True, I think that it'd be naive to ignore voter suppression laws but I'd like to know too how much of it was the campaign not being able to GOTV.

 

[DJ Incompetent]

Curious to see how this aligns with voter suppression laws.

I can tell you Michigan doesn't really have any voter suppression laws. It passed its first semblance of suppression laws after this election http://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...t-voter-law-approved-michigan-house/95127394/

 

[Lord Frieza]

If Hillary's campaign was a shit show then what was Trump's? There were a lot of factors that contributed to her loss but I don't blame too much of it on her campaign. Sure, they should have stuck with MI and WI but I'm sure their polling said they had those states. The first Comey investigation didn't help matters for her credibility. Then the Wikileaks DNC leaks turned a lot of impressionable Bernie voters against her because she "cheated." I bet by the time that last Comey letter came out, many voters were locked in.

Trump was a movement, whether we like it or not. She was the status quo and Bernie and Trump did a good job selling the narrative that we didn't want that any more. A lot of us assumed that because we knew how unqualified Trump was, that everyone else would too.

Trump's campaign was a shitshow in its overall organization, but the guy basically went everywhere, especially in swing states, and that's really the point more than anything.

 

[Aztechnology]

I agree that the campaign failed miserably in the rust belt. That doesn't mean that many Trump voters were motivated by racism,.or that one huge reason that the emails scandal never went away was because of misogyny. It is very clear that there's a double standard where Hillary is considered the corrupt one in a race against Donald Trump. Also, Republican voter suppression tactics were successful I guess.

Or voters across the board, both youth, and minorities were more apathetic than ever before. I don't doubt voter suppression tactics affected some people in certain areas. But it certainly wouldn't explain the 12% drop in voter turnout in MI or WI for instance.

People want to lay blame outside, but the reality is we (Democrats) failed our country too. Even though largely at fault, white people alone didn't cause this. It's a level of failure to participate when it mattered.

Youth 18-25 voting blocks (which includes myself) has failed our country the most for years. But when it comes down to it, the point is, it only would have taken a little more from everyone that wanted to see our country keep moving in a good direction. Instead either people can't be bothered to give up a few hours for one day or they told themselves "my vote doesn't matter" which helps it to become a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Bounceounce]

More would have stayed home with Bernie on the ticket. Search your feelings. You know it to be true.

More POC youth at minimum would have came out, don't know about black women though, but they still mainly vote democrat so I could see it.

 

[kaching]

What's "super complex" about the fact that fully 1/4 of the voting eligible population of this country thought a CLEARLY xenophobic, race-baiting, misogynistic, anti-intellectual, money-driven, narcissistic sociopath and pathological liar was the best choice on the ballot, and at least 1/2 of the voting pop couldn't be bothered to make a distinction between that and the other option on the ballot?

Don't overanalyze this. There's just a lot of people in this country who have a deplorable lack of basic human decency and empathy.

 

[Blader]

Interesting to compare the drop in black voter turnout in PA to MA and WI. Because she campaigned harder and longer in PA vs. the other two? Because of voter suppression in WI vs. PA? (In which case, what happened in MI?)

Wisconsin definitely, and Michigan I can see people just giving up because of the shit show of their state

I know that if I'm being poisoned by the water coming out of my faucets because of Republican negligence and incompetence, the last thing I would want to do is vote for a Democrat.

 

[Neoweee]

Jesus H Christ.

Well, there's the election folks.

Just how bad was the voter suppression?

There's not really a strong case for it based off of that data. This is more a reversion to normal historical levels. It was a giant boost in AA turnout in 2008 and 2012 relative to normal, and that just seemingly faded.

A little from Column A, a little from Column B.

Trump's campaign was a shitshow in its overall organization, but the guy basically went everywhere, especially in swing states, and that's really the point more than anything.

I believe the quote from the Trump camp is they only started focusing on MI/WI/PA late in the game after seeing Hillary start going to PA and MI, and realized it was their best path to victory.

(No, I don't have the exact article handy, but by all accounts it was a seat-of-their-pants electoral strategy + "depress the Clinton vote" overall strategy, which worked by a sliver only by coming together in the final weeks on the back of both the Comey letter that they knew was coming, and Wikileaks/Russian stuff, which they also knew was coming in advance)

 

[Maxim726X]

There's not really a strong case for it based off of that data. This is more a reversion to normal historical levels. It was a giant boost in AA turnout in 2008 and 2012 relative to normal, and that just seemingly faded.

A little from Column A, a little from Column B.

I would expect some drop off from 08 and 12, but 12%??

That seems exceedingly high.

 

[wildfire]

It wouldnt not have mattered if the same amount of blacks voted during the Obama elections, the black vote makes a such a small %.

Read the last 2 paragraphs of the article. You're categorically wrong.

 

[Cagey]

What's surprising is seeing how the percentages dropped for whites and blacks in Wisconsin and Michigan versus 2012. I'd have lost money betting "white vote increased significantly in those states" before observing the chart.

Voters in those critical states (with hindsight) just didn't seem to care as much this time around. Ohio, too.

 

[Carcetti]

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

Someone who said something bad a couple of decades ago or straight up nazi white supremacy... If there ever was a choice between completely balanced options, this was it.

 

[Wilsongt]

As well as whites who voted for Obama voting for Trump.



True, I think that it'd be naive to ignore voter suppression laws but I'd like to know too how much of it was the campaign not being able to GOTV.

Considering by how few votes Clinton lost by in those states, I think this falls heavily on rampant suppression/intimidation

 

[Tagyhag]

Trump was a movement, whether we like it or not. She was the status quo and Bernie and Trump did a good job selling the narrative that we didn't want that any more.

That's actually a great way to put it. People in GAF have to remember that the average American cares more about the personality than the policies of the candidate.

Obama didn't win because of his policies. He won because of "Yes we can!" And "CHANGE".

It's been like that ever since that Nixon vs Kennedy debate.

 

[Beer Monkey]

POC who went Hillary for primaries would have went Bernie in the general.

Not if Bernie got what he wanted. He wanted the superdelegates to disenfranchise those voters and choose him. Some of them would have stayed home in the general.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Voter suppression was definitely a factor; but even amongst the voters who did show up, there was a 7% regression amongst black voters. You can't suppress people into voting third party or for Trump.

Her change of strategy from the primary to the general was clearly a mistake

 

[ErasureAcer]

Imagine how bad it would have been if Bernie got the nomination. Non-white voters chose Hillary 4:1 over him in the primaries.

Two states Bernie won in the primaries. That Hillary lost in the General...that hadnt gone Republican since Reagan.

Bernie appeals to rural voters that went Trump over Clinton. Bernie would have done what Clinton couldnt do, beat a clown.

The deflection to Bernie for Hillary's pathetic numbers in this chart is pretty pathetic.

 

[Maxim726X]

That's actually a great way to put it. People in GAF have to remember that the average American cares more about the personality than the policies of the candidate.

Obama didn't win because of his policies. He won because of "Yes we can!" And "CHANGE".

It's been like that ever since that Nixon vs Kennedy debate.

Yep. No one cares about policy- Shit, Rubio said exactly this after the train-wreck that was the Republican debates. Hillary and her team chose a different tactic.

Oh well. Hopefully the dems learn this time.

 

[excelsiorlef]

I'd love a complex study on the effects of the normalization of Trump and at times the borderline equalization of him to Clinton and how that affected apathy

 

[Neoweee]

Maybe the other side should have placed an option up that didnt refer to our kids as super predators?

Trump straight up advocated for the execution of innocent minority youths, for over a decade, while Sanders actually voted for the bill that was the topic of Hillary's quote.

Two states Bernie won in the primaries. That Hillary lost in the General...that hadnt gone Republican since Reagan.

Bernie appeals to rural voters that went Trump over Clinton. Bernie would have done what Clinton couldnt do, beat a clown.

The deflection to Bernie for Hillary's pathetic numbers in this chart is pretty pathetic.

Bernie is really bad example here as some point of comparison, because generally he got absolutely fucking trounced in the battleground states, in larger states, by larger margins. Him squeaking by in Michigan with slightly better than a tie, under delegate rules that are almost purely proportional, is a really shitty and worthless feather for his cap.

Not if Bernie got what he wanted. He wanted the superdelegates to disenfranchise those voters and choose him. Some of them would have stayed home in the general.

Yeah, whether Bernie would have won is dependent on how we would have gone about getting the nomination. He lost by almost four million votes in a not-remotely-close primary.

Superdelegates to overturn the votes for the demonstrably more popular candidate? Complete shitshow, guaranteed loss.

Sanders actually trying to win by giving minority issues more of a focus? If he did that well enough to win the primary, then yes, maybe he would have performed better in the general. But he didn't do that, so why are we assuming that he would have some magic strategy to win over minority voters when he crashed and burned on it so miserably last spring?

 

[zulux21]

What's surprising is seeing how the percentages dropped for whites and blacks in Wisconsin and Michigan versus 2012. I'd have lost money betting "white vote increased significantly in those states" before observing the chart.

Voters in those critical states (with hindsight) just didn't seem to care as much this time around. Ohio, too.

wisconsin put in voter suppression laws between those elections that targeted the poor and minorities.

for many who only vote in presidencies and don't follow politics they likely learned for the first time that they couldn't vote without a valid state id when they went to vote, and thus couldn't vote at all because they couldn't produce such a thing that day.

even a number of people who did know of such things and tried to obtain one weeks in advance got turned down from voting due to their official license not showing up in time, and them not accepting the temp ID they were given weeks ago.

I don't know how much more stuff was going on, but that was the immediate stuff I heard.

Voter suppression was definitely a factor; but even amongst the voters who did show up, there was a 7% regression amongst black voters. You can't suppress people into voting third party or for Trump.

Her change of strategy from the primary to the general was clearly a mistake

for sure, it wasn't just voter suppression, but it still played a role in those wisconsin drops.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Pretty sad.

We (and I'm talking about African American voters) need to do better before we get around to blaming anyone else for the election results.

If Sessions and Bannon were more palatable to you than Clinton and whatever she brought to the table, you probably need a history lesson.

 

[Jarate]

As someone from Wisconsin, this did not surprise me at all.

Maybe that's why I'm confused by the "minorities hate Bernie" rhetoric. It's quite the opposite here. A lot of people blame the Clinton's for tough on crime laws which have absolutely gutted the minorities in the state.

But then again, the DNC decided to not send any resources here for no reason, so it's no surprise that no one listens to us anyway