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[Thirty7ven]

So? How is that a terrible thing? It’s going to happen sooner or later anyway. Why drag it out? Next gen they’ll sell less than this. 100% sure about this. For a while they can try using Gamepass and cloud and PC in the PR to claim the platform is growing, like they do in Japan. But I give them one more generation until it’ll be all about launchers. And if there is a Playstation console and Sony still don’t do hardware agnostic launchers then there will be a Xbox launcher for Playstation.
*putting the crystal ball back under cover*

How would that work? Xbox launcher? You mean Xbox games? Because if you think PlayStation will allow an Xbox store inside PlayStation I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[MarkMe2525]

It's not silly. Gamepass push for the lowest common denominator - being perceived cheap.
Even with same-for-same player engagement and revenue it hurts in the long term because relative cost becomes very big - you pay 15$ for a lot of games and you have to pay 300-500 for hardware - 20-33 time more. Compared to PS where you pay 70$ for a single game to play on 400-500$ machine - the ratio is 6-7 - much more reasonable. Humans do think in relative terms in the end and quite bad at present value of money (accounting total future payments into today).
This leads to consumers having gamepass to not actually buy a console - it perceived to be too costly and opt out to something with zero cost - like pc/notebook they already own.

Well, that certainly is a take. I'm not interested in entertaining these mental gymnastics further, so I will leave it at I am not convinced.

demigod what's your thoughts on the subject? I'll take the time to let you bend my ear. I would love to hear your unique logic you could bring to the table.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Wait.. so the console hardware sales decline is 30% the fault of not needing an Xbox to play Xbox games, and 70% of the decline is because of an optional subscription service. Yeah, that's a reasonable position to have

I don't know what you are talking about. The subscription service, sorry... optional subscription service, and not needing an Xbox to play Xbox games, are the same thing.

And I don't know why you are fighting this, are you saying that gamepass day 1 and the fact that everything is day 1 on the PC has no effect whatsoever on how actual Xbox hardware sales have been declining?

I can’t understand people hoping for the demise of Xbox as a competitor in the gaming landscape. I mean I understand people’s feeling when it comes to Microsoft throwing there money about recently with the acquisitions etc but for years before that we had people saying that to be more competitive that’s what they needed to do.

Surely more competition within any given market makes its better for us the customer (I hate and never use the term consumer).

When companies strive for not us, but our money and time it incentives them to look at what the markets and competition is doing and atleast try to match if not beat them in terms of what they offer.

I personally would not like to see what the gaming landscape would look like (in the console space anyway) with only dominant player. Whether that be Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo. We’ve seen all 3 become greedy and take advantage of their position when they have been on top.

The problem with you here, and posters like you, is that you see criticism of MS Xbox strategy as wanting them to fail.

I don't know about others, but here is my take... there does not have to be an Xbox (in the traditional sense, which is a game console) for there to be competition. I personally feel, that Xbox, as it was conned, from day 1, was a mistake. that it's not what MS should have done. I feel, that if MS had instead made some sort of curated, lite version of Windows instead, that was focused on gaming, the living room, pc, photo/video editing...etc, and made that OS available to OEMs to make their own version of the Xbox they would have done better, so you would ave ad, windows home, windows pro, windows server, windows game (or something), and ultimately been bigger than sony or Nintendo ever could have been. Basically, the phrase gaming PC or gaming laptop, would have meant something completely different.

Proof of that is steam. Microsoft could have made an "Xbox", surface box, surface hub... And steam would never have been a thing. What's crazy about this, is that MS has been doing everything that is needed to make this possible, but has done it all separately and in isolation. MS literally left their own house, where they were strong already, and went to compete in a field where they had no presence, letting someone else come into said house and take over. If that is not stupid I don't know what is.

Im not sure I understand your point. Why would someone who wanted to get an Xbox choose to not do so because an optional service exists?

Don't misquote me... I said anyone that has a decent PC.

But let's not even do that, speak in absolutions as if everyone is the same, so a better question is this, if there are 70M people out there, that own a PC with at least a 2070 and up, and are in the market for a console, what percentage of that do you think would get an Xbox?

hint, this is a trick question.

 

[Papa_Wisdom]

I don't know what you are talking about. The subscription service, sorry... optional subscription service, and not needing an Xbox to play Xbox games, are the same thing.

And I don't know why you are fighting this, are you saying that gamepass day 1 and the fact that everything is day 1 on the PC has no effect whatsoever on how actual Xbox hardware sales have been declining?

The problem with you here, and posters like you, is that you see criticism of MS Xbox strategy as wanting them to fail.

I don't know about others, but here is my take... there does not have to be an Xbox (in the traditional sense, which is a game console) for there to be competition. I personally feel, that Xbox, as it was conned, from day 1, was a mistake. that it's not what MS should have done. I feel, that if MS had instead made some sort of curated, lite version of Windows instead, that was focused on gaming, the living room, pc, photo/video editing...etc, and made that OS available to OEMs to make their own version of the Xbox they would have done better, so you would ave ad, windows home, windows pro, windows server, windows game (or something), and ultimately been bigger than sony or Nintendo ever could have been. Basically, the phrase gaming PC or gaming laptop, would have meant something completely different.

Proof of that is steam. Microsoft could have made an "Xbox", surface box, surface hub... And steam would never have been a thing. What's crazy about this, is that MS has been doing everything that is needed to make this possible, but has done it all separately and in isolation. MS literally left their own house, where they were strong already, and went to compete in a field where they had no presence, letting someone else come into said house and take over. If that is not stupid I don't know what is.

Don't misquote me... I said anyone that has a decent PC.

But let's not even do that, speak in absolutions as if everyone is the same, so a better question is this, if there are 70M people out there, that own a PC with at least a 2070 and up, and are in the market for a console, what percentage of that do you think would get an Xbox?

hint, this is a trick question.

I honestly wouldn’t have a problem with that, in a lot of ways I can see how it would be beneficial.

Edit: just to add I have an Alienware alpha r2 which ok is admittedly getting long in the tooth now but it’s form factor is something I could definitely get on board with for the pc/console experience.

 

[RGB'D]

Time for Xbox to get out of the console space. Go 3rd party, work deals with Sony and Nintendo

Halo on Playstation

Or ya know... just double down on PC. PC is the biggest growing market right now.

 

[MarkMe2525]

I don't know what you are talking about. The subscription service, sorry... optional subscription service, and not needing an Xbox to play Xbox games, are the same thing.

And I don't know why you are fighting this, are you saying that gamepass day 1 and the fact that everything is day 1 on the PC has no effect whatsoever on how actual Xbox hardware sales have been declining?

This is amusing. You dont know what im talking about because you did not perform your due diligence. If you took the time to read the conversation you interjected yourself into, it would have been plain as day to you that I attributed the decline in hardware sales to MS policy of releasing their games day 1 on PC. The fact is, you do not need an Xbox to play Xbox games. No one argues this fact, and that was not the position I was arguing against. If you are interested in actually knowing my position, you can take the time to go back a few pages and read from the beginning.

So again, ask yourself why you are confused, maybe you will have the self awareness to admit that you took a small piece of my position, misunderstood it, and then attempted to twist it into something it was not, I doubt you would though.

Edit: hey demigod Cat still got your tongue?

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I honestly wouldn’t have a problem with that, in a lot of ways I can see how it would be beneficial.

Edit: just to add I have an Alienware alpha r2 which ok is admittedly getting long in the tooth now but it’s form factor is something I could definitely get on board with for the pc/console experience.

you see? Me being anti what Xbox is or has been doing, doesnt mean I want them to fail.

Whats funny is, valve has done this with Steamdeck, unfortunately, it would take them making a Steambox for MS to see how stupid they have been.

 

[Fess]

How would that work? Xbox launcher? You mean Xbox games? Because if you think PlayStation will allow an Xbox store inside PlayStation I have a bridge to sell you.

Like on PC. You start your Xbox, Epic, Steam app and there you have your games. Sony will have a Playstation app too. You can’t see that happen? I give it 10 years max until it happens.

 

[Papa_Wisdom]

you see? Me being anti what Xbox is or has been doing, doesnt mean I want them to fail.

Whats funny is, valve has done this with Steamdeck, unfortunately, it would take them making a Steambox for MS to see how stupid they have been.

Calm down mate I’ve never accused you of anything, I’ve even agreed with you.

The alpha r2 I mentioned was part of the steam machine line. Great little machine with decent specs behind it for the time, I wish they had continued with them.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Like on PC. You start your Xbox, Epic, Steam app and there you have your games. Sony will have a Playstation app too. You can’t see that happen? I give it 10 years max until it happens.

You can give it fifty years if you’d like. Sounds so absurd and detached from how the market and these devices work, how revenue and profit is generated, that one has to wonder why do you even bother?

It’s never happening.

 

[kyussman]

It's like the more studios and publishers Xbox aquire......the less consoles they sell.

 

[jroc74]

"Shipments"

-_-'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

Not sure how that changes anything?

 

[Woopah]

I don't know what you are talking about. The subscription service, sorry... optional subscription service, and not needing an Xbox to play Xbox games, are the same thing.

And I don't know why you are fighting this, are you saying that gamepass day 1 and the fact that everything is day 1 on the PC has no effect whatsoever on how actual Xbox hardware sales have been declining?

The problem with you here, and posters like you, is that you see criticism of MS Xbox strategy as wanting them to fail.

I don't know about others, but here is my take... there does not have to be an Xbox (in the traditional sense, which is a game console) for there to be competition. I personally feel, that Xbox, as it was conned, from day 1, was a mistake. that it's not what MS should have done. I feel, that if MS had instead made some sort of curated, lite version of Windows instead, that was focused on gaming, the living room, pc, photo/video editing...etc, and made that OS available to OEMs to make their own version of the Xbox they would have done better, so you would ave ad, windows home, windows pro, windows server, windows game (or something), and ultimately been bigger than sony or Nintendo ever could have been. Basically, the phrase gaming PC or gaming laptop, would have meant something completely different.

Proof of that is steam. Microsoft could have made an "Xbox", surface box, surface hub... And steam would never have been a thing. What's crazy about this, is that MS has been doing everything that is needed to make this possible, but has done it all separately and in isolation. MS literally left their own house, where they were strong already, and went to compete in a field where they had no presence, letting someone else come into said house and take over. If that is not stupid I don't know what is.

Don't misquote me... I said anyone that has a decent PC.

But let's not even do that, speak in absolutions as if everyone is the same, so a better question is this, if there are 70M people out there, that own a PC with at least a 2070 and up, and are in the market for a console, what percentage of that do you think would get an Xbox?

hint, this is a trick question.

So if I'm understanding you correctly, could we agree that Xbox hardware would not be negatively effected by GamePass if GamePass was only available on Xbox?

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

So if I'm understanding you correctly, could we agree that Xbox hardware would not be negatively effected by GamePass if GamePass was only available on Xbox?

Of course. And if Xbox Studios games were not day one on PC. As it stands, the best Xbox has to offer, which should be the reason anyone goes out and buys an Xbox, is available day 1 on a service that cost $15/month and PC, where you can also get said service.

It's like MS has literally taken every reason away to buy their console.

 

[ArcaneNLSC]

In the same way Sony buys exclusives and keeps them off Xbox, that’s what competition is.

And what has been part of the gaming landscape since it began.

In a lot of the Sony 3rd party deals they'll support production with resources/staff as well so its not just money hatting the deal. A lot of people forget that they'll help in production in a lot of cases.

 

[Fess]

You can give it fifty years if you’d like. Sounds so absurd and detached from how the market and these devices work, how revenue and profit is generated, that one has to wonder why do you even bother?

It’s never happening.

50? Wow. I don’t think there will be any hardware devices running games at homes by then. It’ll be cloud based.

But I won’t be around in 50 years so let’s stay in some sort of future where we both will be gamers. I’ve been here for 18 years, another 10 years is nothing, lets try to not get banned and we’ll see who’re right in 2033 or thereabout. Deal?
1. Brand specific Sony, MS hardware devices.
or
2. General PC-like devices (or cloud) with brand specific launchers.
Correct?

 

[Celcius]

There's just no reason to own an xbox when ALL their stuff is on PC and they don't have anything compelling first party-wise these days.

 

[Katatonic]

Damn that's a huge delta.

 

[OmegaSupreme]

Jesus. What a bloodbath. MS getting skullbanged. They might has well give up on hardware at this point.

 

[Unknown?]

Then we can agree to disagree, we’re talking about plastic toys at the end of the day, of gaming ceased to exist tomorrow the world wouldn’t end.

If you really feel this way, you could see how it harms consumers overall and could admit it while saying you don't care. Your personal opinion of being nonchalant doesn't negate reality. Yeah the world wouldn't end if gaming crashed and ceased to continue, but that has nothing to do with making less options for consumers from one company making the largest acquisition in history.

​

 

[Luminoth-4545]

yeah, would be nice to see calendar year totals for the PS4.

Pretty much the same as fiscal year totals with minor differences

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Pretty much the same as fiscal year totals with minor differences

thank you so much for this. Answers and confirms some of my questions.

- PS5 has a CY Q1 that is better than any of that seen on the PS4. By a lot.
- Best Q4 on PS4 is 9.7M, which the PS5 is on track to beat this year too.
- If the PS5 can do 10M+ in Q4, they would have sold around 24M+ consoles for the CY. Which I would think is setting some new PS record for most consoles sold in a CY?

 

[noise36]

Releasing exclusive software that can only be played on your hardware is a winning strategy to sell that hardware , who could have guessed?

You dont need an xbox to play xbox games, is it really a surprise they are not selling well?

 

[Thirty7ven]

50? Wow. I don’t think there will be any hardware devices running games at homes by then. It’ll be cloud based.

But I won’t be around in 50 years so let’s stay in some sort of future where we both will be gamers. I’ve been here for 18 years, another 10 years is nothing, lets try to not get banned and we’ll see who’re right in 2033 or thereabout. Deal?
1. Brand specific Sony, MS hardware devices.
or
2. General PC-like devices (or cloud) with brand specific launchers.
Correct?

Or cloud? Uh, that already exists. Because it’s cloud… so, I don’t see why that would be part of the bet.

But it’s a deal on the whole launcher thing, guess I’ll take the easiest bet ever and put my chips that by 2033, five years after the launch of the PS6, Sony and Nintendo aren’t going to put a gun to their heads and blow their brains out by slashing their revenue into a third of what it is right now just because Microsoft got tired of consoles.

Such a ludicrous concept. I’m not even getting into the fact that in such a model Sony/MS/Nintendo would become small players in a market dominated by Steam. Because those PlayStation and Xbox and Nintendo launchers? They won’t play the majority of the games you own on PSN/NO/XboxStore because you/they don’t own the licenses to play/sell them on a PC.

So why would this happen aside from “Xbox might stop making consoles”?

 

[Luminoth-4545]

thank you so much for this. Answers and confirms some of my questions.

- PS5 has a CY Q1 that is better than any of that seen on the PS4. By a lot.
- Best Q4 on PS4 is 9.7M, which the PS5 is on track to beat this year too.
- If the PS5 can do 10M+ in Q4, they would have sold around 24M+ consoles for the CY. Which I would think is setting some new PS record for most consoles sold in a CY?

Well during the PS1 and PS2 era Sony only shared Production shipments (manufactured) and the highest Calendar year Production Shipments were 22.50 million for PS1 and 24.60 million for PS2. At the start of the PS3 era Sony reverted to sell-in / shipped (sold to retailers) and the highest sell-in CY was 15.40 million for PSP, 14.40 million for PS3 and of course 19.50 million for PS4.

 

[mejin]

Switch has a chance to reach 150M+ and PS5 Will be another 100M+ PlayStation.

Séries seems to be dead.

 

[Woopah]

thank you so much for this. Answers and confirms some of my questions.

- PS5 has a CY Q1 that is better than any of that seen on the PS4. By a lot.
- Best Q4 on PS4 is 9.7M, which the PS5 is on track to beat this year too.
- If the PS5 can do 10M+ in Q4, they would have sold around 24M+ consoles for the CY. Which I would think is setting some new PS record for most consoles sold in a CY?

I think PS5 could still have had the highest Q1, but that 2023 Q1 was heavily impacted by the end of shortages.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I never suggested they didn’t, I’ve already stated the buying of exclusively has been part and parcel of gaming since it’s inception. If I wanted to play certain games I had to buy a specific box to play them, I bought a PlayStation to play resident evil 2 and tomb raider 2 because they weren’t released on the sega Saturn. I had no problems doing it then and I have no problems doing it now?

Funny thing about your logic, is that MS was the one that really went out there to buy exclusivity during the X360-era, same as them being the leading cause for standardized DLC and microtransactions.

 

[Long Far Gone]

Looking at those Xbox numbers, it would not surprise me in the slightest if Microsoft went all-in with CoD exclusivity; that may be their only Get Out Of Jail card right now since Activision Blizzard is imploding.

 

[Long Far Gone]

Sony output in games has been fairly lacklustre this gen in my opinion. But they sell lots of consoles.

One of the main reasons I stuck with the ecosystem and bought a PS5 was the fact that my digital library is absolutely f***ing massive (65+ games) and I'm nowhere close to addressing the backlog. Many of them are the monthly titles, though the quality has been dropping off recently, but there's also some of these PS Store sales that I can't resist, I keep buying games that I've never actually played.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It's like the more studios and publishers Xbox aquire......the less consoles they sell.

Think about it this way. They spent 80 billion dollars. How many exclusive IPs did they get? How many of those IPs are system sellers?

They could have spent a fraction of that and got more IP.

Just CDPR would give them the Witcher and Cyberpunk and that could have been had for less than 10 billion.
With T2 they would have gotten GTA and Red Dead. Could have had them for less than 40 billion.

They bought ABK on their way down and bought Zenimax on their way down.

 

[Fess]

So why would this happen aside from “Xbox might stop making consoles”?

Will, not might And cloud is the end game move. No hardware at home, all cloud, from any device, with one subscription.
Sorry to be so stubborn here but for real, all the puzzle pieces are there already for Xbox. The puzzle is just being built in slow motion. All digital is coming, XB app and accounts on PC, PC day 1, Steam day 1, Geforce Now releases, service games, ROG Ally, Steam Deck, PS, Nintendo gamers is seen as the ”Xbox community” by Phil, etc. They’re so close now and there isn’t one area where it seems like they’re stepping back from this future.

Maybe 10 years is too short time for Sony and especially Nintendo to go all in on this path. But they’ve already taken some baby steps and things are moving fast.

Just throw some facts in my face in 10 years if it turns out I’m wrong. I’ve been wrong before so no biggie from my end. Just make sure to stick around and it’ll be a fun thing to talk about. Deal?

 

[Ronin_7]

Wait for Starfield crowd must be hiding really well now.

Them losers thought a game would change shit, some dude on Era even said Xbox would sell 800-900K in that NPD

Delusion is insane these days.

 

[MrA]

Wait for Starfield crowd must be hiding really well now.

Them losers thought a game would change shit, some dude on Era even said Xbox would sell 800-900K in that NPD

Delusion is insane these days.

If starfield had been as good as it should have been it would have helped. Unfortunately for MS a okay not great game isn't a game changer

 

[Gambit2483]

Looking at those Xbox numbers, it would not surprise me in the slightest if Microsoft went all-in with CoD exclusivity; that may be their only Get Out Of Jail card right now since Activision Blizzard is imploding.

So they completely obliterate any and all profitability with the COD IP?
Not having COD on PS5 will surely hit (if not tank) profits made from sales and mtxs.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Or ya know... just double down on PC. PC is the biggest growing market right now.

It doesn't make any sense to solely pursue PC if they are going to be multiplat. Generation after generation console gamers have chosen playstation.

It's a pride issue now. They swung for the king multiple times and missed.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

So they completely obliterate any and all profitability with the COD IP?
Not having COD on PS5 will surely hit (if not tank) profits made from sales and mtxs.

Just think about the amount of money MS would have to pay to get COD on GamePass if they would expand to Playstation.
The vast majority of console-gamers playing COD is on Playstation, MS had no other option than to just buy Activision to avoid having to spend an insane amount of money to compensate for to possible loss in revenue on Playstation. It's cheaper for them in the long run.

That's probably why Sony went for a deal to keep COD on Playstation for 10 years. It's a setback for MS, while allowing Sony to get something on their own to fill the gap COD might leave.

And that's just for COD.

Tbh I'd argue that the Playstation userbase is as important to COD as COD is to Sony.

If Sony manages to create 1 or 2 GaaS titles that can replace/compete with COD, the Activision/Blizzard acquisition might actually backfire on MS if the masses don't move onto GamePass/Xbox eco-system once the 10-year Sony deal is over.

 

[Celine]

Switch selling like crazy for outdated hw

It's indeed selling much better than PS4 at the same point in time.

The only console that this late in the lifespan was selling comparably was the PS2.
In the comparable fiscal year PS2 shipped in total 14.80M, Nintendo is forecasting 15M but I think it will end up at around 16M.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

PS5 has multiple SKUs within the top-selling video games on Amazon... The Xbox Series despite having its own bundles is towards the bottom of the top 50 and none of its bundles are anywhere close to charting.

No one cares about the Diablo, CoD, Starfield, or Forza bundles... Anyone buying an Xbox at this point knows they can get most of these games on GamePass, so the bundles are somewhat meaningless. No one really wants Diablo at this point.

Very good chance that PS5 could outsell Xbox more than 6:1 in the US this holiday season.

The absolute cratering of Xbox sales could push the PlayStation to numbers that I hadn't expected. James Sawyer Ford you might end up being right in the end. I still don't think they hit 12 million, but if the Xbox sells less than 2 million units this holiday in tandem with a larger drop off in historic sales for Switch for this period then it could get pretty close.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It's indeed selling much better than PS4 at the same point in time.

The only console that this late in the lifespan was selling comparably was the PS2.
In the comparable fiscal year PS2 shipped in total 14.80M, Nintendo is forecasting 15M but I think it will end up at around 16M.

The PS4 may have sold differently had it not been for the pandemic. I think we could have seen a strategy from Sony that pushed the PS4 hardware as an alternative to the XSS, but it has gotten a soft discontinuation and the Pro was entirely discontinued.

If there weren't supply chain issues, they probably could have sold the PS4 for as low as 200 dollars and they obviously still had plans to support the PS4 with software basically through this year, with Spider-Man 2 being the first big exclusive.

There was a time when the PS4 Pro was the same price as the PS5 Digital at 400. They probably could have had 200 for the base unit and 300 for the Pro. And we probably would have seen bundles with God of War Ragnarok, Horizon Forbidden West, and GT7.

I don't think the PS4 would have reached the level of the PS2, but it would have gotten a lot closer had it not been for the pandemic. Instead, Sony needed to focus on producing as many PS5s as they could.

 

[Panajev2001a]

So they completely obliterate any and all profitability with the COD IP?
Not having COD on PS5 will surely hit (if not tank) profits made from sales and mtxs.

MS could make it, they have enough cash to forgo profitability of the gaming division if the board convinced that destroying Sony first and then Nintendo would give them a strong revenue stream later on. A company spending almost $80 Billion on three publishers (including Rare here too) is already super deeply invested in a “let’s outspend them out of business” strategy as their leaked memos showed. We can hope they do not succeed, but it is not that the overall corporation would not be able to subsidise greater and greater losses, they would just get in trouble with the feds/regulators at some point as it could not be denied anymore (there is a limit to everything).

 

[Mibu no ookami]

If starfield had been as good as it should have been it would have helped. Unfortunately for MS a okay not great game isn't a game changer

Starfield probably needed an extra year or a year and a half, but Microsoft didn't have that kind of time. So the game had to come out.

Even now they don't have a single game pushing units for the holiday. A Diablo 4 bundle? The game came out in June... That's wild that Microsoft was this unprepared.

Ultimately, Microsoft will go 3rd party, especially now that so much of their revenue is tied to PlayStation. Every decision to foreclose on PlayStation without driving hardware sales on Xbox will bring ABK's revenues down on an annual basis and it'll be very difficult to hide the lost revenue.

Microsoft will need to make a decision as to whether their 70 billion dollar investment in ABK is more important to them than Xbox and it almost certainly is. They can't afford to let ABK dwindle to being worth 20-30 billion dollars because it is latched to Xbox.

There is no way Zenimax is worth 7.5 billion dollars now after the last couple of years they've had. Microsoft will be fully aware of the lost revenue. There's no way Phil Spencer has a lot of time to turn this around because everything is going to get significantly worse on a nearly monthly basis. Every quarterly earnings, every NPD, European sales report, every major new game release...

 

[Ronin_7]

PS5 has multiple SKUs within the top-selling video games on Amazon... The Xbox Series despite having its own bundles is towards the bottom of the top 50 and none of its bundles are anywhere close to charting.

No one cares about the Diablo, CoD, Starfield, or Forza bundles... Anyone buying an Xbox at this point knows they can get most of these games on GamePass, so the bundles are somewhat meaningless. No one really wants Diablo at this point.

Very good chance that PS5 could outsell Xbox more than 6:1 in the US this holiday season.

The absolute cratering of Xbox sales could push the PlayStation to numbers that I hadn't expected. James Sawyer Ford you might end up being right in the end. I still don't think they hit 12 million, but if the Xbox sells less than 2 million units this holiday in tandem with a larger drop off in historic sales for Switch for this period then it could get pretty close.

6:1 is not possible.

 

[BootsLoader]

It’s not about the console sales only, you have to measure the engagement also.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

6:1 is not possible.

It absolutely is.

I don't know that the Xbox is going to sell more than a million units this holiday quarter. They sold 21 million units in about 2.5 years. About 32 months.

They're averaging about 650K units per month. 3 months of that would be 2 million units. But there are a couple of caveats to that.

• Xbox Series is underperforming its historic sales, they're down since last year
• CYQ4 tends to be the strongest of the year

A decent quarter for them would be 1.5-2.5 million, but there are no signs of that. They'll be closer to 1 to 1.5 million. But let's be generous and say they hit their 2.5 million.

If Sony hits 10 million units, that's still 4:1

If Sony hits 10 million units and Microsoft only hits 1.5 million, that is more than 6:1

If Sony hits 10 million units and Microsoft only hits 1 million units, that's 10:1

I put Microsoft in that 1-1.5 million range, and I put Sony anywhere between 8-10 million.

 

[Jesb]

Brutal. Even if they had EA and R* they fumble it still.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

MS could make it, they have enough cash to forgo profitability of the gaming division if the board convinced that destroying Sony first and then Nintendo would give them a strong revenue stream later on. A company spending almost $80 Billion on three publishers (including Rare here too) is already super deeply invested in a “let’s outspend them out of business” strategy as their leaked memos showed. We can hope they do not succeed, but it is not that the overall corporation would not be able to subsidise greater and greater losses, they would just get in trouble with the feds/regulators at some point as it could not be denied anymore (there is a limit to everything).

There's just no way to convince anyone that that is plausible with the cratering of Xbox sales.

I think it is without exaggeration that the Xbox brand is dead in the water and outside of a massive shift that only Grand Theft Auto could help accomplish, there is no changing that.

Any game that launches exclusively (on consoles) on Xbox, is not going to sell well. And honestly, I think at this point that GTA6 would strain itself to move units. You're basically going to have to convince people to spend 570 dollars just to play Grand Theft Auto, and I'm assuming it would at least still be released on PC.

If XBS is ~23 million right now (I'm guessing it is less) and PS5 is at 46.6 million, I'd forecast that number to be nearly 60 million PS5s by the end of March and probably less than 25 million XBS in the same time period. For FY24, I'd say a minimum of 20 million more PS5s which brings up to 80 million, and I'd say at most an additional 5 million XBS for same time period.

So you're looking at 80 million vs 30 million.

There's just no coming back from that.

 

[Panajev2001a]

There's just no way to convince anyone that that is plausible with the cratering of Xbox sales.

I think it is without exaggeration that the Xbox brand is dead in the water and outside of a massive shift that only Grand Theft Auto could help accomplish, there is no changing that.

Any game that launches exclusively (on consoles) on Xbox, is not going to sell well. And honestly, I think at this point that GTA6 would strain itself to move units. You're basically going to have to convince people to spend 570 dollars just to play Grand Theft Auto, and I'm assuming it would at least still be released on PC.

If XBS is ~23 million right now (I'm guessing it is less) and PS5 is at 46.6 million, I'd forecast that number to be nearly 60 million PS5s by the end of March and probably less than 25 million XBS in the same time period. For FY24, I'd say a minimum of 20 million more PS5s which brings up to 80 million, and I'd say at most an additional 5 million XBS for same time period.

So you're looking at 80 million vs 30 million.

There's just no coming back from that.

That is assuming they want to win and not go scorched earth just to kill the competition.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That is assuming they want to win and not go scorched earth just to kill the competition.

The Microsoft board isn't console warriors or fanboys.

I think Phil Spencer could convince them to give him the money for GTA6 exclusivity or timed exclusivity (say 3 months), but they're not blind. They see the dwindling growth in GamePass and they see the dwindling hardware numbers.

GTA6 exclusivity would cost billions of dollars, but it's literally the only thing that could keep Xbox in the game for at least another year or so. Phil is on a short leash.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

It absolutely is.

I don't know that the Xbox is going to sell more than a million units this holiday quarter. They sold 21 million units in about 2.5 years. About 32 months.

They're averaging about 650K units per month. 3 months of that would be 2 million units. But there are a couple of caveats to that.

• Xbox Series is underperforming its historic sales, they're down since last year
• CYQ4 tends to be the strongest of the year

A decent quarter for them would be 1.5-2.5 million, but there are no signs of that. They'll be closer to 1 to 1.5 million. But let's be generous and say they hit their 2.5 million.

If Sony hits 10 million units, that's still 4:1

If Sony hits 10 million units and Microsoft only hits 1.5 million, that is more than 6:1

If Sony hits 10 million units and Microsoft only hits 1 million units, that's 10:1

I put Microsoft in that 1-1.5 million range, and I put Sony anywhere between 8-10 million.

I don’t think 6:1 is possible. Xbox always does okay holiday sales.

But overall it’ll still be a significant gap, it seems like the core console market is just universally dominated by Sony these days and there’s not much Microsoft can do because their prior audience is either on ps5 or pc. It just doesn’t seem to serve much of a purpose anymore. Everyone has shifted to those platforms.