PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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DrForester said:
Sure it's old, but...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/791763393099206657
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It's official: Trump's mouth is a shoddily maintained two-stroke engine with carbon buildup.
Starts out slow and boggy, but eventually revs up into an unstoppable high-pitched whiny mess that comes crashing down and chugs out when you let off the gas.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Georgia at least seems to be on a similar trajectory as North Carolina, just a few cycles behind.

I've mentioned this before but I kind of want to write a book on the trends in the South and how that will impact elections going forward. The point where black Democrats in the South are able to win state elections will turn this country on its head.
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I would love to read this, if you write it. Here is my two cents.

Georgia will go blue really soon. There are many variables to blame for this. Firstly, Hartsfield International. This is the busiest airport in the world and many people get off the plane to make ATL their home. Secondly GA Tech. There are students coming from all over the world, for a chance to go. When they graduate, they stay because there are so many big businesses based in ATL. They are in need of tech heads.Third, the migration and growth of the gay population.
 
CNN running a story on the possibility of Hillary winning Texas. I feel like they'd get way better ratings if they did more stories like this instead of teh horserace!

Also: IDK why, but I feel strongly that a blue Texas is one of those things that becomes easier if people believe it's possible. The absurdity of a blue Texas based just on past experience might be depressing democratic vote,
 
Nazgul_Hunter said:
The absurdity of a blue Texas based just on past experience might be depressing democratic vote,
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Yep. These red states finally being "in play" is likely driving a lot of votes in the D column that otherwise would stay home.

Likewise Trump being a dumpster fire is causing moderate republicans to just stay home, because he's already lost.
 
Something for people to keep in mind with this talk about a blue Texas or Georgia: some reliably Democratic states are looking to be trending more Republican since 2008. Winning those states in the future might be more of a necessity than a bonus.
 
A Human Becoming said:
Something for people to keep in mind with this talk about a blue Texas or Georgia: some reliably Democratic states are looking to be trending more Republican since 2008. Winning those states in the future might be more of a necessity than a bonus.
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Oh? And which states might those be?

Anyone who says "Pennsylvania" is going to catch a slap
 
I feel like, with the militia ruling, Trump's words, and white people generally not wanting to become better people (the deplorable ones, at least) that this election is just greenlighting some of the worst years to come :c
 
Manmademan said:
Oh? And which states might those be?

Anyone who says "Pennsylvania" is going to catch a slap
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When I say trending more Republican I mean the margin of victory in the state versus the country as a whole is shrinking or less. We won't know until the votes are counted, so you can only estimate based on what polls say.

Slap me if you want, but Pennsylvania is looking to be an example of that, albeit so negligible it shouldn't be concerning. Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in contrast, could become real swing states in 2020 and beyond.

I just think of it as a balance. Winning doesn't mean doing so equally every time.
 
Voysa Reezun said:
Iowa and Ohio, but obviously I'd trade Ohio and Iowa for a reliably blue Florida and Georgia and a purple Texas all day, every day.

EDIT: And I wouldn't call Ohio reliably red, either.
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Neither one of those is "reliably democratic"..

Iowa and Ohio were both red in 04.

Obama flipped Iowa in 08 and 12, but he was unusually popular there, likely because his win in the Iowa caucus legitimized his presidential run. Iowans love him. Democrats in general...not so much. It was mostly a split in 2000 and solid republican before 88.

Ohio is the swingiest of swing states. Red in 00, red in 04, barely blue in 12.
 
That's why we need oppo brahs. This thread moved at warp speed when it drops. There is nothing better than refreshing the thread after a workout and seeing 10+ pages added.
 
A Human Becoming said:
When I say trending more Republican I mean the margin of victory in the state versus the country as a whole is shrinking or less. We won't know until the votes are counted, so you can only estimate based on what polls say.

Slap me if you want, but Pennsylvania is looking to be an example of that, albeit so negligible it shouldn't be concerning. Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in contrast, could become real swing states in 2020 and beyond.

I just think of it as a balance. Winning doesn't mean doing so equally every time.
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Here come the slaps!

"Pennsylvania is trending republican" is a lazy bush league political analyst talking point with no basis in reality.

The margin of democratic votes over republican votes has grown every year, with the exception of 04...when the state STILL went blue when every other swing state went red that year.

It's trending democratic, not republican. Is it trending democratic more slowly than the rest of the country? Well yeah, no shit. This country's growth is fueled largely by immigration, most of that Hispanic.

PA is one of the whitest states in the country with a black population at the national average and a Hispanic population about half that. The explosion in the Latino population along with the associated democratic votes isn't happening here.

What IS happening is that the growth in the state is occurring in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas, which are extremely well educated, millennial, and urban. The coal country and steel town populations in the middle of the state where conservatives live are dying out.

This is a slower process than a million Puerto ricans heading over in a boat, but it's no less irreversible.
 
Bowdz said:
That's why we need oppo brahs. This thread moved at warp speed when it drops. There is nothing better than refreshing the thread after a workout and seeing 10+ pages added.
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If nothing drops tomorrow nothing is ever going to drop.

In fact at this point I'd bet nothing drops tomorrow. This is going to be a boring run up to election day, probably filled with the media trying to be as negative as possible on Clinton.
 
Emily Maitlis is a BBC news presenter on Newsnight, the most highbrow of the UK TV news programmes.

It is half-term. She has a 12-year-old son. And it would appear that her son has paid attention to Mum's job.

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I laughed when I read the headline on Pence's plane. I'm a horrible person. (Did also see no injuries, thankfully)
BSsBrolly said:
Oregon standoff asholes found not guilty... wtf.
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This might set a new high bar for "what you can get away with if white." Anything short of actually killing someone (white, of course), including being an armed terrorist occupying force! Since their case involved screwing with law enforcement I assumed that was going to doom them. Not guilty on everything! Not guilty on the basic charge of carrying firearms in a federal facility! This must have been the worst prosecutor on the planet to screw up a case where the defendants are on tape doing the things they're accused of. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll do a few appearances for Trump in the next week.
 
The leaders of an armed group that took over a national wildlife refuge in rural Oregon have been found not guilty of conspiracy and possession of firearms at a federal facility.
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But...how...this needs to be explained.
 
Manmademan said:
Here come the slaps!

"Pennsylvania is trending republican" is a lazy bush league political analyst talking point with no basis in reality.

The margin of democratic votes over republican votes has grown every year, with the exception of 04...when the state STILL went blue when every other swing state went red that year.

It's trending democratic, not republican. Is it trending democratic more slowly than the rest of the country? Well yeah, no shit. This country's growth is fueled largely by immigration, most of that Hispanic.

PA is one of the whitest states in the country with a black population at the national average and a Hispanic population about half that. The explosion in the Latino population along with the associated democratic votes isn't happening here.

What IS happening is that the growth in the state is occurring in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas, which are extremely well educated, millennial, and urban. The coal country and steel town populations in the middle of the state where conservatives live are dying out.

This is a slower process than a million Puerto ricans heading over in a boat, but it's no less irreversible.
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So first off I said since 2008. Maybe you missed that part.

I'm also talking about margin, not the number of votes because the total number of votes varies between election cycle. Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.32% in 2008 and won the country by 7.27%, a +3.05% difference. In 2012 he won it by 5.39%, while winning the country as a whole by 3.86%, a +1.53% difference. This year it looks like Hillary is going to win about the same as she does nationally. It's a slight but noticeable decrease. It might continue in 2020 or it might not.
 
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