PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Kathian said:
NC specifically; they are quite positive about others I believe he said. NC is enough to dump them though.
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I thought he mentioned that a few others were looking iffy, according to the Republican source, but you might be right. I remember hearing Pennsylvania, though maybe it was during the positive part, as you said.
 
TheCochese said:
My work experience is bordering on almost two decades old, but I remember polling registered Republicans who made little effort to vote regularly. Maybe things have changed.

I'm still deeply disappointed that this many people would vote for a demagogue.
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We have primary data to work with. 80% of everyone who showed up to vote for Trump was a reliable voter in the 2012 election. This number was identical to Clinton. Both were turning out party regulars, not unlikely voters.

The sole exception? Bernie Sanders. A significant number of those who showed up for him were unlikely voters that did not vote in the 2012 presidential.

If Trump's appeal was hitting unlikely voters we would have seen it as we did with Sanders. We didn't, because it wasn't.

There HAS been an increase in unaffiliated voters that didn't vote at all in primaries or in 2012, but we know from examining demographic data that these NPA voters are younger and more diverse than average...and Trumps popularity with this group is abysmal, and the GOP as a whole does nearly as badly.

If they're showing up, it won't be for Trump.

There is no plausible path to victory for Trump. At all.
 
kevin1025 said:
I thought he mentioned that a few others were looking iffy, according to the Republican source, but you might be right. I remember hearing Pennsylvania, though maybe it was during the positive part, as you said.
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Lord Frieza said:
They are quite positive about every battleground besides NC? Lol, I have a hard believing that, but who knows what kind of data they have out there.
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I think its not so much 'we are defoes going to win this' and more indications they have some sort of chance. From what I could gather, possible Kev is right and I was the one who misread it.
 
Manmademan said:
We have primary data to work with. 80% of everyone who showed up to vote for Trump was a reliable voter in the 2012 election. This number was identical to Clinton. Both were turning out party regulars, not unlikely voters.

The sole exception? Bernie Sanders. A significant number of those who showed up for him were unlikely voters that did not vote in the 2012 presidential.

If Trump's appeal was hitting unlikely voters we would have seen it as we did with Sanders. We didn't, because it wasn't.

There HAS been an increase in unaffiliated voters that didn't vote at all in primaries or in 2012, but we know from examining demographic data that these NPA voters are younger and more diverse than average...and Trumps popularity with this group is abysmal, and the GOP as a whole does nearly as badly.

If they're showing up, it won't be for Trump.

There is no plausible path to victory for Trump. At all.
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How are feeling about Murphy's chances right now?
 
More early exit poll info

70% white 2% less than four years ago.

58% don't strongly favor the candidate they voted for.

CNN is the worst.
 
Sorry. Mook was on MSNBC and was pretty glowing about Florida, Virginia, and PA. Threw some nasty shade at Trump for not having a ground game when asked about Michigan. Said NC is teetering on the edge and might not be called until tomorrow. He basically said Ohio isn't that important for them and didn't seem that enthused about it.
 
Maxim726X said:
Just heard on CNN that historically Dem counties have lower turnout with higher Repub turnout.

Could be BS, just wondering if there was any other confirmation on the data we read earlier.
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The biggest Democratic county in the state is seeing unprecedented turnout.
 
Manmademan said:
We have primary data to work with. 80% of everyone who showed up to vote for Trump was a reliable voter in the 2012 election. This number was identical to Clinton. Both were turning out party regulars, not unlikely voters.

The sole exception? Bernie Sanders. A significant number of those who showed up for him were unlikely voters that did not vote in the 2012 presidential.

If Trump's appeal was hitting unlikely voters we would have seen it as we did with Sanders. We didn't, because it wasn't.

There HAS been an increase in unaffiliated voters that didn't vote at all in primaries or in 2012, but we know from examining demographic data that these NPA voters are younger and more diverse than average...and Trumps popularity with this group is abysmal, and the GOP as a whole does nearly as badly.

If they're showing up, it won't be for Trump.

There is no plausible path to victory for Trump. At all.
Click to expand...

I'm in general agreement with everything you said. It's what I expect it to be. It's just that <1% chance that is probably freaking everyone out.

I just want it to be done and dusted at this point.
 
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