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[Ogodei]

The losing party always goes into the wilderness a bit after a presidential defeat and might have many leaders. We had the ex-governor of Kentucky do the State of the Union rebuttal this year, and the GOP was equally pathetic on their picks in the past.

Its not until year 3 that you get some idea of who the next challenger will be that the opposition starts to coalesce.

 

[Plinko]

Did y'all know that Hillary is our shadow President?

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/920060656065433600

That whole reply trail from Fox News Idiot is just ridiculous.

Fox News is desperately trying to do anything to keep attention off Trump because his numbers are falling even among republicans.

 

[JP_]

Premiums in PA to go up by 30% next year. Just in time for Midterms! This is literally the worst case scenario for the GOP (and it actively fucks so many people)

The people that need to change their minds for there to be a major shift in the midterms, the GOP voters — I’m not at all confident they’ll place blame correctly. Trump is directly hurting them but I would not at all be surprised if they think it’s dems’/obamacare’s fault.

I mean, all they have to do is take Trump’s word for it. Hoping republican voters will start trusting dems over republicans on Obamacare seems like a tall order to me.

 

[JettDash]

Why doesn't someone tell Trump that he looks like a reverse racoon.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The people that need to change their minds for there to be a major shift in the midterms, the GOP voters — I’m not at all confident they’ll place blame correctly. Trump is directly hurting them but I would not at all be surprised if they think it’s dems’/obamacare’s fault.

I mean, all they have to do is take Trump’s word for it. Hoping republican voters will start trusting dems over republicans on Obamacare seems like a tall order to me.

We don’t need Republican base voters to change their minds. We need them to stay home.

We need swing voters (who already fucking hate Trump and the GOP) and the Democratic base to come out and vote D. This constant worrying about 30-35% of the voting population is getting tiresome. Trump could shoot their families in front of them and they’ll still vote Republican. We are not winning them. Let it go and move on.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Why doesn't someone tell Trump that he looks like a reverse racoon.

I don't know, and it's been bugging the hell out of me since he came down that elevator. It's such a shitty tan.

 

[chadskin]

Why doesn't someone tell Trump that he looks like a reverse racoon.

Says Cryin' Turtle!

 

[Teggy]

.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

The US makes a lot of bad foreign policy decisions, but to even begin to compare it to Russia at present is ridiculous.

 

[Aaron Strife]

.

I fucking hate this man so much. I’m so done.

 

[Y2Kev]

Trump's narcissism is so not good.

 

[JP_]

We don’t need Republican base voters to change their minds. We need them to stay home.

We need swing voters (who already fucking hate Trump and the GOP) and the Democratic base to come out and vote D. This constant worrying about 30-35% of the voting population is getting tiresome. Trump could shoot their families in front of them and they’ll still vote Republican. We are not winning them. Let it go and move on.

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

First, Trump is more popular now than he was during the election.

And we might squeak out a majority with swing voters, which is why I qualified it with “major shift” — I want more than a normal swing that gives us a small majority, I want a sweep. Present conditions warrant a major shift and anything less further demonstrates a broken country. I’m not saying a major sweep will happen, but it needs to.

 

[neurosisxeno]

So in light of Trump's dumbass claim of the day, I can't help but remember that Trump is constantly blaming and belittling Obama, and even George W. Bush. Which is hilarious since Republicans accused Obama of doing nothing but blaming GWB for issues, because he had to remind people that when he took office the economy was in freefall after a massive crash, and even then he rarely (if ever) blamed Bush directly, but usually said something of the tune of "when I took office, xyz". Is Trump the most openly critical of his predecessors we've seen from a President in quite some time or am I just misremembering?

Also the brazen hypocrisy from Republicans is hilarious. Can't wait until they start blaming things falling apart on Obama despite it clearly being because of their actions.

 

[Aaron Strife]

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

First, Trump is more popular now than he was during the election.

And we might squeak out a majority with swing voters, which is why I qualified it with “major shift” — I want more than a normal swing that gives us a small majority, I want a sweep. Present conditions warrant a major shift and anything less further demonstrates a broken country. I’m not saying a major sweep will happen, but it needs to.

Frankly I’m more concerned where Trump’s numbers have gone since he was sworn in, as it’s pretty clear a number of Republican voters claimed to dislike him because they perceived Trump support as a social faux pas.

Anyway I’m not expecting a huge wave in the House or Senate just because of the way the maps are for both chambers (House badly gerrymandered, Senate a nearly maxed out Dem class), but that’s ok. If we even just hit 218 or 51 I would be happy on election night.

 

[Loxley]

Frankly I'm more concerned where Trump's numbers have gone since he was sworn in, as it's pretty clear a number of Republican voters claimed to dislike him because they perceived Trump support as a social faux pas.

Anyway I'm not expecting a huge wave in the House or Senate just because of the way the maps are for both chambers (House badly gerrymandered, Senate a nearly maxed out Dem class), but that's ok. If we even just hit 218 or 51 I would be happy on election night.

I've already begun mentally preparing myself for Dems not taking back either the House or the Senate next year - but any seats we pick up from Republicans to lessen their majority in Congress will make me happy.

2020 is what I'm more curious about.

 

[KingK]

I've already begun mentally preparing myself for Dems not taking back either the House or the Senate next year - but any seats we pick up from Republicans to lessen their majority will make me happy.

2020 is what I'm more curious about.

Same, I'm not expecting to win back either the House or the Senate next year. 2020 has potential, but for 2018 I'm just hoping to make at least some marginal gains. Governor races/state elections are honestly what we should be focusing on the most next year.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I've already begun mentally preparing myself for Dems not taking back either the House or the Senate next year - but any seats we pick up from Republicans to lessen their majority in Congress will make me happy.

2020 is what I'm more curious about.

Honestly even if we gained like 20 seats in the House or something... on one hand I’d be pissed that we couldn’t seal the deal, on the other that would pretty much throttle Trump’s agenda permanently.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Shadow President Clinton and the Deep State.
My upcoming novel.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Shadow President Clinton and the Deep State.
My upcoming novel.

Shadow?

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Flip one the chambers or bust. Senate or House turning blue and Trump’s Presidency is over. The sheer amount of shit and criminal activity that can be uncovered will bring the admin to a halt.

 

[Emarv]

McCain poking at Trump and Bannon. Also lol @ "ass cheek" freudian slip.

NBC News‏Verified account
@NBCNews

Sen. McCain calls refusal of "obligations of international leadership" for "spurious nationalism" unpatriotic

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/920088411750383616

 

[Joe]

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff chalks another one up for sanity.

Completely toothless but every little bit helps


https://twitter.com/Martin_Dempsey/status/920086690936639488

 

[whyamihere]

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

First, Trump is more popular now than he was during the election.

And we might squeak out a majority with swing voters, which is why I qualified it with “major shift” — I want more than a normal swing that gives us a small majority, I want a sweep. Present conditions warrant a major shift and anything less further demonstrates a broken country. I’m not saying a major sweep will happen, but it needs to.

A lot of that is Republican and Independent support -- probably one of the reasons we never noticed how those voters would be willing to vote for him even though he had worse faborables than Hillary.

It's more interesting to see what's happened since the election.

But yeah, if you had put bets on it this far out, you'd probably put bets on Trump being reelected in 2020 just because incumbents usually win. Though this is obviously a different presidency.

 

[Ogodei]

Flip one the chambers or bust. Senate or House turning blue and Trump’s Presidency is over. The sheer amount of shit and criminal activity that can be uncovered will bring the admin to a halt.

Even narrowing Ryan's hold would make the House yet more unwieldy and dysfunctional. It's not Freedom Caucus diehards who are leaving in 2018.

The Senate is more valuable to block the Supreme Court.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Flip one the chambers or bust. Senate or House turning blue and Trump’s Presidency is over. The sheer amount of shit and criminal activity that can be uncovered will bring the admin to a halt.

House we can bring up impeachment charges, Senate we can block judicial nominees.

Senate

 

[whyamihere]

House we can bring up impeachment charges, Senate we can block judicial nominees.

Senate

Yup.

 

[eBay Huckster]

So the NBA is next on "this week's major industry Fat Boy is going to destroy as a distraction".

he can try, but I think even he realizes his dogs don't hunt with NBA fans

 

[Plinko]

House we can bring up impeachment charges, Senate we can block judicial nominees.

Senate

Would be preferable but is the longest odds by far.

 

[DTC]

i'm not sure how we would get the senate but not the house unless bannons senate candidates are total loons that no independent votes for and ted cruz is revealed to be a pedophile 1 week before election

 

[whyamihere]

It would be funny if we didn't take back the House but somehow managed the senate.

 

[kess]

The primaries are for the most part in May of next year, and the legislative clock is running down as Trump contines to kick burning sticks of dynamite at congress. Another shoe is going to drop between now and then.

 

[NihonTiger90]

he can try, but I think even he realizes his dogs don't hunt with NBA fans

And unlike the NFL, the NBA players will bite back as an almost unified force.

 

[Diablos]

It would be funny if we didn't take back the House but somehow managed the senate.

Well that might be better. Just as good of a check on Trump plus we get SCOTUS and can block other controversial judges, cabinet members...

 

[Stinkles]

Anyone upset about Trump golf and Mar A Lago trips should think about how much it costs to put our entire armed forces into nuclear readiness every time you want to compensate for your tiny hands. Our military costs have silently rocketed because he is a Fanta- hued fuckspittle.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

he can try, but I think even he realizes his dogs don't hunt with NBA fans

I fully expect a few Tweets on how basketball was better when it was a “technical game” and not street ball like today.

 

[kirblar]

It would be funny if we didn't take back the House but somehow managed the senate.

That happened in '02, no?

 

[Aaron Strife]

That happened in '02, no?

‘00, kind of. We picked up four seats for a tie, and then Jeffords switched parties a few months in. Bush had a Dem Senate for most of the first half of his first term.

Then the GOP gained two seats in 02. If we’d just held MN and GA...

The spread after the 2000 election actually seems pretty feasible to me. 50/50 Senate, 221-214 GOP majority in the House. At that point I’d just hope Murkowski’s loyalty to the Republican Party is as strong as the party’s loyalty to her.

 

[whyamihere]

That happened in '02, no?

We lost the Senate in 2002. Pryor won, but so did Chambliss, Talent, and Coleman.

Of course, Talent and Coleman would go on to lose in 2006/2008 respectively.

 

[kirblar]

‘00, kind of. We picked up four seats for a tie, and then Jeffords switched parties a few months in. Bush had a Dem Senate for most of the first half of his first term.

Then the GOP gained two seats in 02. If we’d just held MN and GA...

The spread after the 2000 election actually seems pretty feasible to me. 50/50 Senate, 221-214 GOP majority in the House. At that point I’d just hope Murkowski’s loyalty to the Republican Party is as strong as the party’s loyalty to her.

That's what I'm remembering.

 

[Box of Kittens]

That happened in '02, no?

You're actually thinking of 2000 here, and even then the timeline is pretty complicated.

Obviously the 2000 election is mostly remembered for the presidential result but the Senate results and the following developments were also quite interesting. Going into the election Republicans had a 54-46 majority, but the map had more upside for Democrats because it was the first election for this Senate class since the 1994 Republican Revolution. Indeed, it would be the first of three consecutive elections for this Senate class where Democrats would make a net gain (which is why there's so little room to play offense when it comes up again next year).

The Democrats picked up four seats, making the Senate 50-50. This allowed the Democrats to technically capture the Senate for the brief period between the beginning of the new Congress and the presidential inauguration on then-Vice President Al Gore's tie-breaking vote. Of course this only lasted a few weeks before Bush was sworn in, Dick Cheney now held the tie-breaking vote, and control of the Senate reverted to Republicans. But not for long, because in June Senator Jim Jeffords (R-VT) switched his affiliation to Independent and began to caucus with the Democrats, giving them an effective 51-49 majority. This arrangement would last until the 2002 midterms when, bucking the usual midterm pattern, Republicans made a net gain of two seats, giving them the majority again.

The story in the House for the 2000 cycle was far less interesting. Some seats got swapped around but the end result was a net gain of a single seat for the Democrats which allowed Republicans to retain control of the chamber by a slim margin.

EDIT: That's what I get for taking forever to compose my reply.

 

[Sianos]

A state of emergency has been declared by Rick Scott preceding Richard Spencer's Neo-Nazi rally on Thursday at the University of Florida.

 

[whyamihere]

I'm watching 2006 election coverage and Tim Russert is very very very very annoyed that Claire McCaskill declared victory before Jim Talent called her to concede and he keeps bringing it up.

 

[sc0la]

Did y'all know that Hillary is our shadow President?

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/920060656065433600

That whole reply trail from Fox News Idiot is just ridiculous.

This reply chain is fucking maddening.

 

[Box of Kittens]

2002 was the first election I voted in. The Senate results feel so weird to me because the result (in a cycle that otherwise wasn't very good the Democrats picked up a seat in Arkansas of all places) would be pretty far-fetched today and yet, I can remember it.

 

[Holmes]

Saxbeh Chambliss

 

[sc0la]

They just need someone to be against.

https://www.mediaite.com/uncategori...position-party-being-against-things-was-easy/

You know if being a minority opposition party is their strength I’d be happy to let them be that forever. At least he’s honest about it.

 

[aspiegamer]

A state of emergency has been declared by Rick Scott preceding Richard Spencer's Neo-Nazi rally on Thursday at the University of Florida.

Uh. There's a joke about free speech to make here somewhere, but I can't think of it. But this sounds like a job for Florida Man!

 

[whyamihere]

Oh jesus 2018 is going to be a late night isn't it

 

[kirblar]

Using the term "Shadow President" is a telltale sign that the person drafting your talking points ain't American.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Oh jesus 2018 is going to be a late night isn't it

Probably. Nevada and Arizona are in pacific time, though we’ll probably have an idea of how the Dem incumbents all fared by then.

Additionally a bulk of our House pickups could come out of California, hope for a Cali miracle.

The CNU tracking poll for Virginia comes out tomorrow at 6am. They last had Northam winning by 7. Monmouth also has a poll out tomorrow, last poll had Northam up 5.