• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Monitoring the situation in Iran

"No imminent threat" is probably what some would've said about the Taliban before 9/11

Actually, we had evidence of that.


"Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US" is a President's Daily Brief prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency that was given to U.S. president George W. Bush on Monday, August 6, 2001. The brief warned, 36 days before the September 11 attacks, of terrorism threats from Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, including "patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for a hijacking" of U.S. aircraft.
 
But he didn't ask, he demanded.

Yt6qIuvbxqIkZIhc.png



He sounds like bipolar person.
It's what governing by the seat of your pants looks like. No real plan, just wing it based on perception. Edit: to be more blunt and specific. It's what happens when you only focus on the end goal and not the work that needs to be put in to get there.

In any competent administration the conversations about the Strait should have started before the first bomb was dropped.
 
Last edited:
It's what governing by the seat of your pants looks like. No real plan, just wing it based on perception.

In any competent administration the conversations about the Strait should have started before the first bomb was dropped.

I think Sarah Paine is spot on about Trump here (21:19), and that was before the war:



He doesn't really plan anything ahead...
 
Last edited:
They'll support boots on the ground. hard to know which of these users were the "no new wars" types, but that clearly is not a factor here.

edit:
It looks like this important update got overlooked: no one wants to help us in this stupid war we started. I am lost as to how someone can read this and not be embarrassed.

"We don't need anybody, we are the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military. We don't need them."





To quote Machiavelli, "War begins as you want, but rarely ends as you please."
 
Second sentence of the article says he asked. It's unclear which demand the fake news headline is referring to.

Not that I think he was really asking expecting a positive response. He asked to make a public record of the refusal to assist.

Article also quotes him multiple times saying that he don't need any help and allies.

"Demand":



So the biggest navy on the planet can't handle this?
 
Last edited:
I wonder if he even consulted with any of the NATO Allies before starting this mess to then be trying to guilt them into action. And you can see why they "noped out" considering what is happening in Europe. And how would it even look for them to go throw man power at the Middle East with war in their backyard.

Also, by all indications escorting ships is not really attainable long term or even short term. And the amount of ammunition European counties will have to have ready to shoot down a single drone or boat would probably better serve Ukraine.
 
President Trump asked for assistance fully expecting that it would not be forthcoming. He's just getting it 'on the record' and making sure there can be no revisionism over this point later.

It is going to matter for informing US policy going forward, even for more deep-state-approved future administrations. What has been seen cannot be unseen.

IMO, he'll use it and say it's a reason why we'll pull out of NATO, which I firmly believe he wants. Can't say I'm particularly a fan of it, though I am in support of BTFO'ing Iran and their terror networks.
 
I don't know if this is real but it popped on my feed.
What a brilliant idea...



Doing your PPL over the hottest most contested air space on the planet right now, with cardboards on your front window and without comms


I think Sarah Paine is spot on about Trump here (21:19), and that was before the war:



He doesn't really plan anything ahead...


She's went full "Robocop without the 4th directive" since she retired from Naval War College. One of my favorite geopolitcal minds (specially on Asia)
 
Last edited:
Second sentence of the article says he asked. It's unclear which demand the fake news headline is referring to.

Not that I think he was really asking expecting a positive response. He asked to make a public record of the refusal to assist.

I don't remember where it was, but I'm pretty sure I saw a video of him using that word in that context.
 
... So the biggest navy on the planet can't handle this?
I think the US Navy can handle it, just not without losses. Iran isn't playing out there and they're clearly prepared to hit where it hurts. To my eyes, Trump's slowly realising he's started a real, actual war and people are going to die. I think he wants his "allies" to take those losses simply to save political face at home now that it's undeniably clear the Iran war is going to take a while.
 
Last edited:
Based af, dude is probably going to face a lot of backlash by the Trump admin but in 5 years when the complete and utter disaster of the Iran war, economic, diplomatic and otherwise has fully unfolded, history is going to vindicate people like him
totes, much like the previous Iran war. All those people, vindicated.
 
"We don't need anybody, we are the strongest nation in the world. We have the strongest military. We don't need them."





To quote Machiavelli, "War begins as you want, but rarely ends as you please."



His tweets have also changed from those funny one-liners from a few years ago to angry nonsensical rants. I think he might actually have dementia, that's why it was so easy for neocons to manipulate him this time, unlike his previous term when he was firing them one after another
 
I think the US Navy can handle it, just not without losses. Iran isn't playing out there and they're clearly prepared to hit where it hurts. To my eyes, Trump's slowly realising he's started a real, actual war and people are going to die. I think he wants his "allies" to take those losses simply to save political face at home now that it's undeniably clear the Iran war is going to take a while.

He probably knows putting US boots on the ground after months/years of 'no wars under me' rhetoric will be a massive negative for the midterms.
 
He probably knows putting US boots on the ground after months/years of 'no wars under me' rhetoric will be a massive negative for the midterms.

Even if he doesn't, this war is going to have big effects for the midterms. Is losing the Senate in 2026, or the Presidency in 2028, worth it? It's not a guaranteed outcome, but it's a lot more likely now with an unpopular war going on that will definitely lead to more inflation.
 
Actually, we had evidence of that.


Optimism bias from almost a decade of fall of the Soviet Union. If you ask people what imminent threat means they'll conjure up some trope of huge armies of Orcs at Helm's Deep waiting for the Orc standing on the boulder to give the order to attack. It's the "Hollywood effect" we've been conditioned to think of threats as loud, visible, and cinematic. If there isn't a dramatic horn blowing or a literal ticking clock, our brains tend to categorize the danger as "future math" rather than a present reality.

The optimism bias really took root in the 90s. They call this collective psyche the "End of History". We traded the constant vigilance of the Cold War for the assumption that stability is the natural default setting, rather than something that requires active maintenance. Like thinking DBZ ended with Frieza. When a threat is slow-moving or abstract like systemic fragility or shifting geopolitics, it doesn't register as "imminent" because it doesn't look like Orcs massing at your walls.

In modern geopolitics, that has been replaced by "gray zone" threats that are intentionally designed to stay just below the threshold of open war to avoid a direct military response ie Iran's proxies.

It's what governing by the seat of your pants looks like. No real plan, just wing it based on perception. Edit: to be more blunt and specific. It's what happens when you only focus on the end goal and not the work that needs to be put in to get there.

In any competent administration the conversations about the Strait should have started before the first bomb was dropped.

Jimmy Carter was known to be meticulous with details, the smartest President ever. A trained nuclear engineer. Couldn't see that the Ayatollah was deceiving him. Despite the advice of experts warning of the revolution, Carter administration officials, including those encouraging contact with Khomeini, mistakenly believed they could work with him to achieve a moderate government in Iran. So being the smartest guy known for meticulous planning doesn't ensure anything. The fact we're finally seeing the end game of this 47 year cluster fuck is proof.
 

The Ford will return to Crete for refueling, but also for an investigation into the large fire that broke out aboard the vessel on March 12, with investigators probing the possibility that the fire was deliberately caused by crewmembers to terminate their extended mission, according to a source who spoke to the Greek daily newspaper Kathimerini.

Jesus fucking inside job. Lock the guilty cunts up forever.
 
Hell yeah brother, we can waste money in the middle east and ukraine! Why fix anything in this country?

We need socialism and a welfare state, that oughta fix our issue with record low savings. /s

Only reason we're not up to our eyeballs in inflation is we've been able to export it. Where do you think all of the printed money goes when the US runs deficits?
 
Last edited:
Hell yeah brother, we can waste money in the middle east and ukraine! Why fix anything in this country?
Don't think you realize just how much of the US's ability to weather its own domestic stupidity is directly because of the muscular influence it has over the rest of the world.
 
Don't think you realize just how much of the US's ability to weather its own domestic stupidity is directly because of the muscular influence it has over the rest of the world.
Which it has all but eroded with stupid policies and rhetoric aimed at the entire word.
 
Don't think you realize just how much of the US's ability to weather its own domestic stupidity is directly because of the muscular influence it has over the rest of the world.

Don't think you realize just how much of the US' muscular influence it has over the rest of the world will be compromised and damaged as a result of the many irresponsible and wasteful actions of this administration, including this ill-conceived war.
 
Don't think you realize just how much of the US' muscular influence it has over the rest of the world will be compromised and damaged as a result of the many irresponsible and wasteful actions of this administration, including this ill-conceived war.

When is a war not ill-conceived according to anti-war people? You have large portion of young GenZ in Europe that says they will not take up arms under ANY circumstances even if their country was attacked unprovoked.
 
When is a war not ill-conceived according to anti-war people? You have large portion of young GenZ in Europe that says they will not take up arms under ANY circumstances even if their country was attacked unprovoked.

When it has a sensible strategy backing it with significant international and domestic support, that doesn't have a decades long history of failure and mismanagement, and doesn't come at the opportunity cost of economic suffering for the people who initiate said war.
 
So the biggest navy on the planet can't handle this?
The military could handle it. The US domestic tolerance for casualties could not.

President Trump's position seems to be that Iran using or threatening terrorist attacks against civilian vessels of other nations to prevent them using the strait is not really -and certainly not exclusively- the US' problem to solve.

IMO, he'll use it and say it's a reason why we'll pull out of NATO, which I firmly believe he wants.
I agree he'll use it, though I think it's more about exposing that America's allies cannot be relied upon and therefore should not be relied upon. I don't think it's motivated by a desire to leave NATO per se, but a desire to have that weakness be known and accounted for now, rather than for the US to one day end up in a real war and only come to understand that weakness when it's too late to address.
 
I think Sarah Paine is spot on about Trump here (21:19), and that was before the war:



He doesn't really plan anything ahead...

I cant take a video seriously when its titled Mussolini 2.0, and has the words fascism is back.

I can only assume everyone in the video is clinically retarded.
 
Last edited:
If Trump wanted allies to help he should not have shit all over them with insults, tariffs and threats of invasion. If he wants vassals like Putin with North Korea who will send tens of thousands of their sons into certain death in stupid wars he will have to look elsewhere.
 
Last edited:
If Trump wanted allies to help he should not have shit all over them with insults, tariffs and threats of invasion. If he wants vassals like Putin with North Korea who will send tens of thousands of their sons into certain death in stupid wars he will have to look elsewhere.
Or

The US pays for majority of nato spending, maybe europe can step up to the game instead of literally fighting the US at every point and become bed fellows with radical Islam and china 🤷‍♂️

The EU cant keep crying when Trump wants to pull out of NATO, threatening war when he says something stupid about greenland (literally going as far as mobilizing troops) but when it comes to protecting the hormuz straight now they use "tariffs" as an excuse.

The EU has had literal tariffs on US goods anyway, what do you think VAT is.

It shouldnt be crazy for allies to have your back defensively, it shows how useless the EU is and how overtaken they have really become

At least France is helping. People in the UAE are thankful for that
 
Last edited:
Or

The US pays for majority of nato spending, maybe europe can step up to the game instead of literally fighting the US at every point and become bed fellows with radical Islam and china 🤷‍♂️

The EU cant keep crying when Trump wants to pull out of NATO, threatening war when he says something stupid about greenland (literally going as far as mobilizing troops) but when it comes to protecting the hormuz straight now they use "tariffs" as an excuse.

The EU has had literal tariffs on US goods anyway, what do you think VAT is.

It shouldnt be crazy for allies to have your back defensively, it shows how useless the EU is and how overtaken they have really become

At least France is helping. People in the UAE are thankful for that
I don't think you understand what VAT is nor how it works. Every non imported product is also subject to VAT in Europe.
 
Or

The US pays for majority of nato spending, maybe europe can step up to the game instead of literally fighting the US at every point and become bed fellows with radical Islam and china 🤷‍♂️

The EU cant keep crying when Trump wants to pull out of NATO, threatening war when he says something stupid about greenland (literally going as far as mobilizing troops) but when it comes to protecting the hormuz straight now they use "tariffs" as an excuse.

The EU has had literal tariffs on US goods anyway, what do you think VAT is.

It shouldnt be crazy for allies to have your back defensively, it shows how useless the EU is and how overtaken they have really become

At least France is helping. People in the UAE are thankful for that
VAT isn't a tarrif since it applies to all consumption in a region. Any vat paid on import is returned when the good is purchased by the next person in the chain. VAT is just a way to tax consumption while avoiding evasion which is easier in the US with sales tax.
 
Or

The US pays for majority of nato spending, maybe europe can step up to the game instead of literally fighting the US at every point and become bed fellows with radical Islam and china 🤷‍♂️

The EU cant keep crying when Trump wants to pull out of NATO, threatening war when he says something stupid about greenland (literally going as far as mobilizing troops) but when it comes to protecting the hormuz straight now they use "tariffs" as an excuse.

The EU has had literal tariffs on US goods anyway, what do you think VAT is.

It shouldnt be crazy for allies to have your back defensively, it shows how useless the EU is and how overtaken they have really become

At least France is helping. People in the UAE are thankful for that
I thought Europe was supposed to focus on defending Europe since the US lo longer felt responsible for it. Hegseth: "our relationship will prioritize empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security"

So that's what Europe is doing. Sending troops to foreign forever wars would go directly agaist that.
 
Top Bottom