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[ADiTAR]

Ceasefire is utter horseshit for all the terrorists simps here.

They should've won the war. A ceasefire is not a win.

The objectives were the nuclear, the missiles, and a regime change. None of that happened.

Only dumb people who don't understand the ME think a ceasefire is a thing that lasts. How many ceasefires has Hamas broken? I guess you don't know cause your face was too deep inside your own ass.

 

[Madonis]

The power of memes has no borders.

In any event, no idea whether this ceasefire will last or lead to anything concrete.

 

[Hyet]

I'm shocked Trump is still in office after this. Has to be one of the worst operations by an PM ever. Success in Venezuela got to his head.

 

[Vestal]

I'm shocked Trump is still in office after this. Has to be one of the worst operations by an PM ever. Success in Venezuela got to his head.

If he was a PM he would be out on his ass yes.

 

[Mortisfacio]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

 

[LordCBH]

Ceasefire is utter horseshit for all the terrorists simps here.

They should've won the war. A ceasefire is not a win.

The objectives were the nuclear, the missiles, and a regime change. None of that happened.

Only dumb people who don't understand the ME think a ceasefire is a thing that lasts. How many ceasefires has Hamas broken? I guess you don't know cause you're face was too deep inside your own ass.

Hell, Iran broke the "ceasefire" like less than 5 minutes after it started by bombing every country around them again.

 

[Bojji]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

Iran was in a bad state before this war even started (citizens were revolting because of water shortages). All of those claims are true.

 

[Vestal]

Hell, Iran broke the "ceasefire" like less than 5 minutes after it started by bombing every country around them again.

That can be attributed to the decentralized nature of Iran's regime. Which was made even harder by US/Israel operations that has fractured its leadership and caused them to further decentralize.

 

[Ironbunny]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

I would think that if the regime stays they win. If the regime changes they might still win depending who takes over. For US to win Iran needs to be forced into a situation where US can dictate the terms.

 

[Mr1999]

Looks like crossing has stopped due to Israel bombing hezbollah in Lebanon. I just have to say this, Lebanon does not belong to Iran, Its not their country. This is thr problem with hezbollah, they are foreign to Lebanon. People will say but no, they have a long history in there its just as much as their country.. bullshit. Im saying this now, unless hezbollah leaves lebanon along with thr current Iranian regime, nothing is gonna change. People who have lived there know the reality, including Israel. I hope they continue to bomb those terrorists, and thats what they are.

 

[adamsapple]

The objectives were the nuclear, the missiles, and a regime change. None of that happened.

That's weird, the Secretary of War said "this is not a regime change war", but also that "the regime did change".

So it wasn't one of the objectives you assumed, but they still met it anyway.

 

[Brucey]

Hell, Iran broke the "ceasefire" like less than 5 minutes after it started by bombing every country around them again.

Apparently in retaliation for strikes on Lavan Island.

 

[Hari Seldon]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

Don't believe anything yet. It is just propaganda from all sides at this point. Opinion pieces are being written based entirely off of propaganda because opinion writers don't get paid unless they write, so ignore it.

 

[Brucey]

Looks like crossing has stopped due to Israel bombing hezbollah in Lebanon. I just have to say this, Lebanon does not belong to Iran, Its not their country. This is thr problem with hezbollah, they are foreign to Lebanon. People will say but no, they have a long history in there its just as much as their country.. bullshit. Im saying this now, unless hezbollah leaves lebanon along with thr current Iranian regime, nothing is gonna change. People who have lived there know the reality, including Israel. I hope they continue to bomb those terrorists, and thats what they are.

Bibi doesnt give a shit about who they kill so the death toll in Lebanon will end up being much higher than the deaths in Iran.

 

[Madonis]

That's weird, the Secretary of War said "this is not a regime change war", but also that "the regime did change".

So it wasn't one of the objectives you assumed, but they still met it anyway.

It's a change of regime only in the technical sense, because they switched some chairs around between those left alive, but the power structure was disrupted rather than broken.

 

[Meicyn]

At the same time, this week was the first week on the Ukrainian war that Ukraine launched more missiles at Russia than Russia at Ukraine.

Yup, it was interesting to read that headline. Certainly aligns with the alleged shipment. Then there's this:

Article:

The U.S. official said it is not clear which version or versions of the drone Moscow is shipping to Iran.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian officials said Russian troops lost access to their Starlink satellite internet terminals on the front line after Ukraine asked Elon Musk's SpaceX to help deny Russia use of the service in Ukraine. Russian forces consequently lost command-and-control capabilities and navigation for Starlink-capable drones.

Moscow may be giving its Starlink-capable drones to Iran because it has become more difficult for Russian forces to use them in Ukraine, the U.S. official said. Or Moscow might be providing Iran with other Shahed variants that are jet-propelled, use AI to pilot the drone even without a signal or that are equipped with cameras for reconnaissance, the U.S. official said.

Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/russia-is-sending-upgraded-drones-used-in-the-ukraine-war-to-iran-officials-say/

 

[adamsapple]

It's a change of regime only in the technical sense, because they switched some chairs around between those left alive, but the power structure was disrupted rather than broken.

I get that. Regardless of if it was their intention or not, they've only shuffled things, not upheaved them.

But regime change was never one of the stated objectives for thi9s war/military operation in the first place.

 

[Clear]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

One side got bombed to shit, had most of its pre-existing leadership killed, its military decimated, and was forced to accept terms or lose its entire infrastructure.

The other suffered minimal casualties and material losses.

The calculus should not be difficult!

 

[Durien]

At this point .. who the fuck knows.

We're anywhere between getting a ceasefire or a nuclear level event tonight.

I think this instant release of info needs to stop. Get the deal done behind closed doors and when it's done, it's done. Afterwards you can notify the world.

 

[Critical Hit]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

Don't believe anyone and just wait.

Moscow may be giving its Starlink-capable drones to Iran because it has become more difficult for Russian forces to use them in Ukraine

That's doubtful. Starlink needs to be activated right now, which the Iranians are unlikely to be able to do either. It would be easier to convert them back to regular ones and use them themselves.

Or Moscow might be providing Iran with other Shahed variants that are jet-propelled, use AI to pilot the drone even without a signal or that are equipped with cameras for reconnaissance, the U.S. official said.

If only as a technology.

 

[Vestal]

I think this instant release of info needs to stop. Get the deal done behind closed doors and when it's done, it's done. Afterwards you can notify the world.

You are absolutely right. Look at where we are at now..

Iran claims they have halted traffic in the strait because of the attacks on Lebanon by Israel. Does that mean the ceasefire is done?

Now the White House says that the 10 point plan that Iran has released publicly is not the plan that Trump Agreed to last night.. So what are the 10 points that Trump agreed to?

Its a mess.

So who knows what the fuck is going on.

 

[Futaleufu]

All I'm going to say is that Iran breaking the ceasefire is the casus belli USA wants.

 

[LordCBH]

This "ceasefire" won't last to the weekend.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

Guys I found this Taco recipe that is really delicious

See? You started with a Taco recipe then I got hooked, and saw the image below. Total let down. Do better, pls.

 

[Meicyn]

That's doubtful. Starlink needs to be activated right now, which the Iranians are unlikely to be able to do either. It would be easier to convert them back to regular ones and use them themselves.


If only as a technology.

I'll be frank. I'm open to engaging in discussion with anyone and always ready to admit I'm wrong in the face of evidence. But there's nothing to discuss when you try to deflect my posts with personal opinions and zero references of your own. You mentioned Ukrainian bias yesterday, so I'd like to see what source(s) led you to this stance. Why should I believe Critical Hit, a random NeoGAF member, over several news agencies citing US and EU sources? Give me links. I'll read them.

 

[adamsapple]

This "ceasefire" won't last to the weekend.

I'm pretty sure it's already over. The strait is closed again. Iran assumed Lebanon was part of the deal, which the Pakistani PM specifically said yesterday, today morning Trump is saying it was not part of the deal.

So we're back to yesterday morning.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

I'm pretty sure it's already over.

Yeah, I've heard about missiles flying into Israel and Dubai. Not sure if the sources are substantial, tho. This "War" has brought so much misinformation unto the table, I try to delay my reactions to anything.

 

[Oberstein]

Friendship ended with Japan.

 

[L*][*N*K]

See? You started with a Taco recipe then I got hooked, and saw the image below. Total let down. Do better, pls.

Listen I know you are having mental breakdown and I am sympathetic believe me, but I am worried that you think you are being witty or funny because you are not, you are quite lame.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

Listen I know you are having mental breakdown and I am sympathetic believe me, but I am worried that you think you are being witty or funny because you are not, you are quite lame.

I'm actually not. I just wish idiots like you would stop using idioms. We're done here!

 

[Wildebeest]

I don't know which sides propaganda to believe. Did Iran win? Did they lose? Is their economy collapsing? Are they profiting off the war? For every claim it's so easy to find the opposite.

There are no winners other than maybe China who now look more like the last adult in the room to a lot of people in the world. If a lot of people didn't care for Iran before they really hate them now. Hard to say what the long term for them is. For the US everything still seems like a joke no matter much is wasted but it's just another rung on the ladder down in the decline of a great power. The biggest loser is Israel who have now found out what it's like to be on the heel turn side of Trumps never ending pro wrestling shit talking style of diplomacy. Maybe the only one left who has only seen the baby face Trump is Kim Jong Un and that love affair is still real? Who knows.

 

[LordCBH]

I'm pretty sure it's already over. The strait is closed again.

Been too busy at work today to pay attention lmao

 

[daffyduck]

China looks like "the last adult in the room"? I very much doubt that.

 

[lachesis]

Seeing all these contradicting reports, I am more less convinced that this 2 week cease fire, it's more to take a breather for bigger pressure/attack.

For one, USS GHWB will arrive there around that time, giving even more pressure to the region.
2 weeks break would be a good amount of time for US and Israel to restock/reroute the their stock and weapon system - but for Iran, it would be very difficult because..

1. Iran would need to either dig out their missiles, or expose and move around their existing depot - and US will be surveilling from the sky and satellite.
2. Iranian infrastructure (road/railoards etc) have been so heavily damaged, so it would be an herculean challenge to restore to functional state....
3. which leads to the supply issue - food and money. Soldiers not being paid, given expired ration and having to buy food with their own money - used to be just Basji soldiers, but now the strain has got to IRGC missile corps
4. with whatever amount of external aid from Iran's allies - it would be pretty easy to track and target.

For Trump admin, the biggest threat is midterm - which he really needs to see some result by summer to gear up the support and regain trust from the general public. He doesn't have a lot of time.
But for Iran - they don't have that much time either, and I say it's so much shorter. Their crumbled country can't really function and civil unrest will likely rise up the longer they wait for a permanent ceasefire deal. (Hence they wanted a permanent deal, up front.)

And when these 2000 ships stuck in the strait return to their countries, I don't think they'll be coming back to the strait until things are settled down. As much as the strait itself, those ships were the hostages and in paid fashion or non-paid fashion (depending on who you ask) - they will be released. Once the hostages are released, it means Iran lost some of the leverage because if there's no ship traffic coming back to the strait, blockading loses a lot of meaning. Longer the blockade, the ships will find different route, even if it cost a bit more and longer.
Not to mention how the neighboring countries would react - they may really become active alliance to U.S and Israel after 2 weeks.

Iran really doesn't have a lot of cards, and they are losing the cards much quicker than US.
Ceasefire, I don't think it's a win for Trump - as he's the one with time limit and has to face often heavily biased public responses.... but it's definitely a win for U.S. forces in strategic point of view.

 

[Raven117]

Iran imposing tolls on the Straight would be a catastrophic loss to the US and other ME allies.

That has to be a negotiation position rather than something Iran thinks can get done. That's a non-starter

 

[FullMetalx117]

War far from over imo. Pre text will be planned out over the next week, maybe Iran 1 week away again by next taco tuesday with some nuclear material shoveled out of the ground, captured by satellite images and transmitted using starlink

 

[devutos]

Iran imposing tolls on the Straight would be a catastrophic loss to the US and other Mae allies.

That has to be a negotiation position rather than something Iran thinks can get done. That's a non-starter

I suppose they held off from doing that in the past as they were scared of what the US could do in response to that. Turns out, not all that much. Maybe if they go ahead with it, America can actually plan a war this time and try again. With a different president obviously.

 

[jason10mm]

Friendship ended with Japan.

See, this is just an attempt to defuse Trumps greatest strategy, the extreme overreach to allow room for negotiation down to the desired goal. It's not TACO, it's asking for Mars in order to settle on the Moon when what you really wanted was just low Earth orbit. If you over reach you might get MORE than you really wanted, but if you only ask for what you want, you will often have to settle for less.

 

[jason10mm]

Iran imposing tolls on the Straight would be a catastrophic loss to the US and other ME allies.

That has to be a negotiation position rather than something Iran thinks can get done. That's a non-starter

I don't really see how Iran could enforce tolls, long term anyway. All the other countries using the Straits would develop work-arounds, Iran doesn't really have the capability to monitor and police the area for a high volume of traffic.

They should start drilling a pipeline to cut the gap though. All the great navigation routes took immense effort but are now considered essential features. For some reason we are reluctant to engage in great works.

 

[StueyDuck]

So theres a ceasefire, US pulls back, yet Iran, Isreal, Kuwait etc all bombing the shit out of each other

Im keen to see how eurogaf is gonna make it trumps fault still and parrot the irgc propaganda speaking points

 

[BlackTron]

What is the point of being in NATO if the one thing that NATO offers, military bases, is denied?

What's the point for them to be in NATO if the strongest member threatens to annex their territory?

This goes both ways, they just reasserted their leverage to show they aren't pushovers.

 

[Haint]

China looks like "the last adult in the room"? I very much doubt that.

His social credit affords him one China Hero post on the real internet, but only during his 2 minute break out on the suicide net.

 

[Tams]

Iran imposing tolls on the Straight would be a catastrophic loss to the US and other ME allies.

That has to be a negotiation position rather than something Iran thinks can get done. That's a non-starter

They have no navy to properly enforce it for a start.

The statement of intention also mentioned Oman, as they know ships have and can stay in Omani waters. Oman is under no obligation to enforce a toll.

Of course, Iran can use terrorism to intimidate some shipping into paying a toll, even if they stay out of Iranian waters, but they know they can only do that so much before dragging other countries even further into this war.

We've already seen the patience of some Middle Eastern countries break.

 

[Hari Seldon]

What's the point for them to be in NATO if the strongest member threatens to annex their territory?

This goes both ways, they just reasserted their leverage to show they aren't pushovers.

And Europe proceeded to make the alliance even shakier with the denial of airspace. I get it that the Euro population hates the US, but fucking with the US logistics while they are at war is a great way to make a permanent enemy that lasts well beyond Trump. If I was Poland I would be fucking pissed right now.

 

[winjer]

And Europe proceeded to make the alliance even shakier with the denial of airspace. I get it that the Euro population hates the US, but fucking with the US logistics while they are at war is a great way to make a permanent enemy that lasts well beyond Trump. If I was Poland I would be fucking pissed right now.

Europe doesn't hate the USA. Europe hates Trump and his administration and with very good reason.

 

[Critical Hit]

You mentioned Ukrainian bias yesterday, so I'd like to see what source(s) led you to this stance. Why should I believe Critical Hit, a random NeoGAF member, over several news agencies citing US and EU sources? Give me links. I'll read them.

You already had all the necessary information even before you replied to me (not entirely accurate, though - the news was about drones, not missiles):

At the same time, this week was the first week on the Ukrainian war that Ukraine launched more missiles at Russia than Russia at Ukraine.

Add to that Russia's economic problems, and a simple bit of logic will show you that no one will be sending a significant number of drones (which, by the way, your sources don't even claim) under such circumstances.
Not to mention that a Russian drone killing an American soldier could serve as a casus belli, and that the poor relations with OPEC countries during the sanctions last time led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

2. Iranian infrastructure (road/railoards etc) have been so heavily damaged, so it would be an herculean challenge to restore to functional state....

It's only difficult to repair complex bridges, the rest is fairly straightforward and quick.

Longer the blockade, the ships will find different route, even if it cost a bit more and longer.

No, that would require building new infrastructure, and that would take years. The Strait remains a point of leverage, so an operation to seize the island is more likely than not.

 

[LearnandBurn]

I was watching something yesterday saying sometime in April is when the last of the oil tankers will be coming into north america because it takes so long for them to get here.

So we haven't really felt the full effects of what's going on and it's just about to start.

 

[L*][*N*K]

If I was a journalist I would write a book called TACO, I would simple do a taco recipe and in every recipe put in a story about a time Donald Trump TACO'd, I swear that would be a fantastic idea for a book

 

[buttnuggett]

Ceasefire is utter horseshit for all the terrorists simps here.

They should've won the war. A ceasefire is not a win.

The objectives were the nuclear, the missiles, and a regime change. None of that happened.

Only dumb people who don't understand the ME think a ceasefire is a thing that lasts. How many ceasefires has Hamas broken? I guess you don't know cause your face was too deep inside your own ass.

Ceasefire is just a ceasefire. No way that we allow most of their points to stand. Sure, a few, but most of ours should be what's going on. Most of our bullet points should be adhered to. Of course, these bastards are very untrustworthy. The only other option is a full invasion or at least a partial. I prefer the partial because it won't take the 500k on low end to up 1 million on the high end. 200k could keep their anti-ship missiles at bay. Of course, that's also a major ground invasion that Americans will hate. It also gives Trump a few minutes to walk back his stupid shit.

 

[jason10mm]

Europe doesn't hate the USA. Europe hates Trump and his administration and with very good reason.

No child LIKES Strict Daddy, but every child NEEDS Strict Daddy