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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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Baemono said:
I'm pretty sure EviLore's warning included to not quote stuff from before the thread was closed (and leading to its very closing)
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It's pretty clear what he put but damn these fools just can't help themselves. Barely reopened and it's right back to how it was. No pity on future bans from this thread.
 
HeisenbergFX4 said:
Saw oil went up to $104 a barrel, this needs to come to an end one way or another
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The commodities market makes me so mad, it's completely bogus. Oil would probably be higher if it wasn't completely manipulated. All one has to do is look at covid when it went to $-40. Did it suddenly become worthless to humans? No! But this does need to end soon or we will be seeing oil shortages around the world.
Baemono said:
I'm pretty sure EviLore's warning included to not quote stuff from before the thread was closed (and leading to its very closing)
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It was about not arguing about the president being bad or good which was not the content of my message. My message was about if someone of higher age, in general, could be fit to make decisions but my message was not on the topic of Iran soooo you're right. (also I didn't see that post, sorry EviLore EviLore ).
 
I think this makes sense strategically, but a blockade on all oil from the region from both Iran and the U.S. is gonna be pretty painful.
 
Genius and courageous move by President Trump. Presumably it will also cover Jask, and presumably the decimation will recommence if Iran hasn't fully bent the knee by the end of the ceasefire period.
 
EviLore said:
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Not a bad strategy tbh
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Feels like another redline. We need to stick to it and not back away from it. I might not agree with our reasoning or even how this war has been conducted. But we are in it, and we need to win it or at least break even. But let's get it done. It is doing too much damage to the world economy and most of our pocket books.

Hopefully the calculation has been made on the Iranian response once there is a ship stopped by US Naval forces and what that next step or steps are.
 
winjer said:
Considering most of the oil and gas that was passing the straight of Ormuz was going to Asia, I bet that China is not happy with 2 blockades. And neither are all other Asian countries.
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I would guess/hope the US has had conversations with China about this. Also China is has had a renewables boom over the past decade. Here's a pretty good article from Reuters about it.

www.reuters.com

How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz

China is the top buyer of oil passing through the Strait. It’s also the most prepared to do without that oil.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

While the editorial does not mention that Beijing has unofficially banned fuel exports to conserve supplies, the country is nonetheless more insulated than many of its neighbours thanks to years of policy measures that have reduced its vulnerability to energy shocks.

China boasts an electric vehicle fleet about as large as the rest of the world's combined, vast and growing oil stockpiles, diversified supplies of oil, and gas and an electricity grid that is almost insulated from imports thanks to domestic coal and renewables.

"The current situation is really close to what Chinese planners have had in mind for decades," said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland.

"It validates the drive to reduce reliance on seaborne fossil fuels."
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StueyDuck said:
Im surprised they didnt do so initially to be honest, its much smarter than potential boots in kharg like some pundits were suggesting
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Possibly cause it's gonna end up hurting multiple US allies in the region more than Iran.

I don't see it lasting long, TBH.
 
The Chinese response to a Chinese ship being stopped is the bigger deal. Partially the intent of the move is to push China into pressuring Iran.

It's hard to see how it hurts anyone 'more than Iran'.
 
Unknown? said:
The commodities market makes me so mad, it's completely bogus. Oil would probably be higher if it wasn't completely manipulated. All one has to do is look at covid when it went to $-40. Did it suddenly become worthless to humans? No! But this does need to end soon or we will be seeing oil shortages around the world.
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These chemicals are volatile and expensive to store. Jet fuel (kerosene) especially has a short shelf life. They also cannot just turn the wells on and off like a tap. If it stops flowing then it is not an easy or sure thing to restart the flow. If these problems were solvable they would have found a way.
 
Vestal said:
Feels like another redline. We need to stick to it and not back away from it. I might not agree with our reasoning or even how this war has been conducted. But we are in it, and we need to win it or at least break even. But let's get it done. It is doing too much damage to the world economy and most of our pocket books.

Hopefully the calculation has been made on the Iranian response once there is a ship stopped by US Naval forces and what that next step or steps are.
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My understanding is many of the fast boats etc are kept in caves along the strait. So blockading their ports won't actually reduce risk to shipping.
 
EviLore said:


Round 2
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While this cease fire helps the Iranians, it helps us getting more assets in the region, do maintenance on aircraft that got rode hard, and replenish ammunition. Thanks for reopening the thread btw, boss.

Sorry about that thread, btw.
 
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But certainly if they can fly combat air patrols continously over the strait could possibly intercept the fast boats in time.

Iran may ask the Houtis to start blasting on the Red Sea instead.
 
Brucey said:
But certainly if they can fly combat air patrols continously over the strait could possibly intercept the fast boats in time.

Iran may ask the Houtis to start blasting on the Red Sea instead.
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I don't think they have any boats at all. And their means of producing them got destroyed. Our main threat are missiles and the mines they laid.
 
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adamsapple said:
Are you ready for it until November? Cause it could possibly go till there.

www.usatoday.com

Trump says gas prices could be same or 'a little bit higher' before midterms

One of the sticking points in the negotiations held in Islamabad has been Iran's stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
www.usatoday.com
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It's obvious that Trump no longer cares about mid elections. He is old and he is in his last term.
But people like Marco Rubio and JD Vance care about future elections and their own prospects.
So I bet they will put some pressure on Trump to find a solution sooner.
 
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Baemono said:
Can someone explain me like I'm 5 why he want the straight to be close ?
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Iran has the playground closed to everyone but their friends. The US doesn't like that so they parked their toughest kids at the 1 door that Iran was using to go out or let their friends in.

So now the playground is closed.
 
rkofan87 said:
watch it do you want this to get locked for good
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I am loved by the Mods. Seriously other posters are tolerated some say even accepted, but the mods truly love me, I am contributing to this great community in a way that makes people want to be here. Other people are trash, but not me, I have all the words, and I put them into post.

Loop Trump GIF
 
HeisenbergFX4 said:
It only affects me via all other prices going up as I rarely ever buy gas being 90% of my driving is via an EV

Don't like seeing others struggle though
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Gas prices affect everything tho. If regular gas is high, so is diesel. If diesel is high, everything that gets delivered by tractor trailers is higher.
 
I'm a Catholic and disagree with the pope on this one. I can't say the US involvement was intended to liberate people from genuine tyranny, but the effect of any successful regime change would be just that (assuming democracy prevails and not another regime like the last).

I really don't understand how anyone supporting human rights doesn't see the 40k murdered protestors from earlier this year and agree this one is at least morally justifiable on that basis.
 
StueyDuck said:
Kinda weird the world is just letting the oil Barons just slaughter the world's economy.

Easy to blame any leader here but its really the literal fat cats that are willing to watch the world burn for an extra buck...

Should really only be china feeling it
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I don't think this was about oil barons. our invasion of Iran caused a supply chain disruption; prices to go up because of that, not because the oil companies are greedy. Though i guess American companies might benefit from the higher prices.
 
NickFire said:
I'm a Catholic and disagree with the pope on this one. I can't say the US involvement was intended to liberate people from genuine tyranny, but the effect of any successful regime change would be just that (assuming democracy prevails and not another regime like the last).

I really don't understand how anyone supporting human rights doesn't see the 40k murdered protestors from earlier this year and agree this one is at least morally justifiable on that basis.
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Our involvement was to prevent them from getting a nuke. Well, at least the official reason. The real reason is probably the petro dollar. If we control the flow of energy on this planet, then BRICS gets crushed.
 
DrFigs said:
I don't think this was about oil barons. our invasion of Iran caused a supply chain disruption; prices to go up because of that, not because the oil companies are greedy. Though i guess American companies might benefit from the higher prices.
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Majority of the oil went to Asia, its absolutely fat cats just pushing up the price
 
buttnuggett said:
Our involvement was to prevent them from getting a nuke. Well, at least the official reason. The real reason is probably the petro dollar. If we control the flow of energy on this planet, then BRICS gets crushed.
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Both reasons are true

We are trying to finally stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state, which would be catastropic because they would happily nuke Israel and then Israel would nuke them back and that would be the least terrible of possible outcomes even if other nations didn't get involved and start launching their nukes. Just a localized nuclear exchange would kill millions of people instantly, irradiate large sections of the Middle East, and scatter radioactive fallout over neighboring nations, Europe, and Russia

We are also trying to contain China, and being able to control and throttle their energy imports is a very important step towards that goal. This is especially true since we know Chairman Pooh has directed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. No one knows the actual state of PLA readiness for a full amphibious assault of the island but everyone knows that tanks, ships, and jets don't run on batteries. They run on petroleum, and if we control the petrol, we control China's ability to invade Taiwan

There's a lot of geopolitics going into the recent decisions to depose Maduro over in Venezuela and then attack Iran. Trump is trying to solve multiple problems here, Iran getting nukes is one but the other bigger one is China threatening to invade Taiwan in addition to trying to bully and dominate all of its neighbors in East Asia
 
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