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[PhoenixDark]

Is this your fifth debbie downer poll in one day?

That's not a downer, it's more an indicator that Arizona is not a close as some thought. Plenty of time for things to change but I tend to think the state is just a few points out of reach for Obama. It's like the mecca of crazy town

 

[leroidys]

112k

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

That's not a downer, it's more an indicator that Arizona is not a close as some thought. Plenty of time for things to change but I tend to think the state is just a few points out of reach for Obama. It's like the mecca of crazy town

Winning in Arizona wouldn't affect the election at all anyways. That's not a swing state so much as a landslide victory state.

But what's interesting is that it would force the GOP to radically shift tactics on immigration. Not by a small amount either. Even if Obama even just makes it close, that will scare the republicans as they now have to shuffle getting hispanic votes with getting old white men votes.

Also considering it was McCain's home home state and traditionally a republican stronghold, it seems kind of interesting how it was only won by an 8.5% margin in 2008. It actually dropped from the 10% margin in 2004.

Now with the current hostility towards immigration/DREAM act/Governor Brewer, how can anybody expect it not to at least be entertaining?

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

That's not a downer, it's more an indicator that Arizona is not a close as some thought. Plenty of time for things to change but I tend to think the state is just a few points out of reach for Obama. It's like the mecca of crazy town

Romney will win AZ but it's going to be close, especially after how AWFUL that state has treated its minorities.

 

[Ecotic]

That's not a downer, it's more an indicator that Arizona is not a close as some thought. Plenty of time for things to change but I tend to think the state is just a few points out of reach for Obama. It's like the mecca of crazy town

What happens in Arizona is ultimately immaterial though as it concerns the ultimate outcome of the election, for it's not a tipping point state. If Obama wins it it means he's won comfortably and he may get more political capital, but the State that puts him over 270 will more likely be Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, or maybe Ohio. Florida, for all its past importance, has slanted red enough demographically since 2000 to be a state that pads margins, and not a tipping point state.

 

[TacticalFox88]

If Romney can't win Arizona, then he might as well forfeit.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Today we also get revised numbers for March?

 

[Oblivion]

So guys, should I stay awake for BLS numbers? Or should I get some sleep so I can actually make it to work on time for once?

Decide my fate, GAF!

 

[jaxword]

"I'm not totally certain I will get to the moon colony."
— Newt Gingrich, finally suspending his campaign

 

[Officerrob]

Arizona: Romney 52%, Obama 43%, Undecided 5%
http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-co...na-General-Election-Survey-Release-050312.pdf

Statistics show that registered voters in Arizona break down Republican 36%, Democrat 33%, and independent 30%. That poll uses 41% registered Republicans. Also, the Census had Hispanics at 29.6% of Arizona, that poll was at 18%. The poll is trash

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

So guys, should I stay awake for BLS numbers? Or should I get some sleep so I can actually make it to work on time for once?

Decide my fate, GAF!

Sleep.

I'm going with 172,000

 

[Black Republican]

So guys, should I stay awake for BLS numbers? Or should I get some sleep so I can actually make it to work on time for once?

Decide my fate, GAF!

stayawake for death

 

[Cloudy]

This Chen guy seems like a huge attention whore to me. What a selfish guy. He and his handlers have no regard for the reputation of the diplomats who helped him and initially threw them under the bus because he changed his mind.

Then calling into congress? WTF? Apparently he's not restricted enough that he can make international calls and continue his theatrics.

Either you want asylum or you deal with your own government. He wants it both ways but that's not possible in this case..

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

This Chen guy seems like a huge attention whore to me. What a selfish guy. He and his handlers have no regard for the reputation of the diplomats who helped him and initially threw them under the bus because he changed his mind.

Then calling into congress? WTF? Apparently he's not restricted enough that he can make international calls and continue his theatrics.

Either you want asylum or you deal with your own government. He wants it both ways but that's not possible in this case..

Either an attention whore or a nut. Or both.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +240,000 to +259,000, and the change for March was revised from +120,000 to +154,000.

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

This month's was lower than expected, and somewhat offsetting that was prior months revised up 53,000.

 

[DasRaven]

Unemployment down .1 to 8.1%, significant upward revisions to Feb/Mar. +115K jobs.

Participation down slightly due to end of some state emergency unemployment programs.

#ThisCouldBeGoodForMittRomney

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Wow. worse than expected.

 

[The Librarian]

March and February revised upward: +34K and 19K, respectively.

 

[Oblivion]

This was totally worth waiting for. :/

On the other hand, the UE rate is down (yes, yes, I get that in this case it's not necessarily a good thing).

 

[The Librarian]

Wow. worse than expected.

lol Compared to what? Your ridiculous prediction?

 

[Triton55]

Not so good. At least this is pretty early, so it's not too catastrophic. I'm going to be on pins and needles for the October jobs report though.

I know the expectations were ~150k, but what were the expectations for the revisions?

 

[DasRaven]

lol Compared to what? Your ridiculous prediction?

Market prediction was +170K, we'll see what revisions say over the next 2 months.

 

[GhaleonEB]

lol Compared to what? Your ridiculous prediction?

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451279&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2012&lid=0#top

It's worth noting that the total jobs added between this month and the revisions are actually above expectations. They way they're going I'd expect April to be revised up to near consensus over the next two months. But this was a disappointing April number.

Unemployment rate fell, though, thanks to a drop in the labor force. Couple more months and we could be below 8%. PD am cry.

 

[Oblivion]

For better or worse, the number that's gonna catch everyone's eyes is the UE rate.

At the very least if Obama keeps up these numbers at a minimum every month, he'll have another million jobs he can add to his record by November.

 

[Jackson50]

Statistics show that registered voters in Arizona break down Republican 36%, Democrat 33%, and independent 30%. That poll uses 41% registered Republicans. Also, the Census had Hispanics at 29.6% of Arizona, that poll was at 18%. The poll is trash

The poll employs a likely voter screen, so it should diverge from voter registration data. It's actually fairly consistent with Arizona's trends. I think Latinos composed 15% of Arizona's turnout in 2008. So a 3% increase in the proportion of voter turnout seems reasonable.

That's funny since Carter was probably the most pro-business president since Hoover.

True. I suppose history is subsumed by the narrative fabricated about Carter, but he ignited the trend of deregulation. Although, in the instance of home brewing, the outcome was overwhelmingly positive.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Bad jobs report is bad

Especially as I think most people ignore the upward revisions. We need to hit at least 200k per month to feel good about this.

 

[The Librarian]

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=451279&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2012&lid=0#top

Heh. I wonder why predictions were that high. I saw some numbers beforehand but I guess that was mostly people just guessing, and their numbers were a lot lower.

April numbers will be revised upwards, me thinks.

Edit: My apologies to Bulbo.

 

[Measley]

Just watched the job numbers being revealed on Morning Joe, and all I can say is holy shit at the news media. You had some clown from CNBC talking about how horrible these numbers were as if we had actually LOST jobs in April or something. Then the moron gets into a policy argument with Ed Rendell who completely smashes him into little pieces. The little slimeball finishes the segment by saying under his breath that he agrees with the governor, and then goes on another rant about something else entirely.

What a joke.

BTW, the UE rate continues to go down because earlier job numbers keep getting revised upwards. I love how the participation rate keeps getting mentioned, but that little tidbit gets completely ignored.

 

[DasRaven]

Bad jobs report is bad

Especially as I think most people ignore the upward revisions. We need to hit at least 200k per month to feel good about this.

People ignore everything but the U3 number.
Wonks like us care about U6, actual jobs added, revisions, participation rate, etc.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Heh. I wonder why predictions were that high. I saw some numbers beforehand but I guess that was mostly people just guessing, and their numbers were a lot lower.

April numbers will be revised upwards, me thinks.

Predictions tend to be from surveys the week before; it was clear from the data that came in this week that the number would be lower. But they were what they were.

I do think they'll be revised up. At this rate, March will end up near near 180k when it's all said and done; I wouldn't be surprised if April did the same.

 

[Oblivion]

The data that was trickling in before March's jobs report was very, very positive, and the actual result was underwhelming.

The data that was trickling in before April's jobs report was very, very negative, and the actual result was marginally worse than March's was.


What have we learned, poligaf?

 

[Measley]

Bad jobs report is bad

Especially as I think most people ignore the upward revisions. We need to hit at least 200k per month to feel good about this.

The only thing people care about is the UE rate.

You can thank Republicans for that one. If the UE rate drops below 8.0, their entire argument about the Obama economy goes up in smoke.

 

[GhaleonEB]

The data that was trickling in before March's jobs report was very, very positive, and the actual result was underwhelming.

The data that was trickling in before April's jobs report was very, very negative, and the actual result was marginally worse than March's was.


What have we learned, poligaf?

That there's a huge amount of noise in the data. Things pointed to much worse than last month, and the report was 5k less than last month's initial report.

A couple random notes of things I've been watching:

The unemployment rate is now the lowest of Obama's term, at 8.1%. It was 8.3% in February 2009.

The net jobs on Obama's term (from February 2009 on) is now -572k. All but certain to turn positive before the election.

Compared to last year, the YTD is down slightly (+827k vs. 803k). With revisions the next two months, this year will end up ahead, slightly.

Compared to last year, the next few months are almost certain to be better. The combination of the Japanese tsunami working its effect on supply chains, and the debt ceiling fiasco led to May - August job gains of: 54k, 84k, 96k and 85k respectively, before rebounding. I'll be shocked if we don't double that this year.

Still, this month was below my hopes. The improvement in the UI claims last week might be a good sign for next month, but we've seen how fickle the data has been lately.

 

[sc0la]

The data that was trickling in before March's jobs report was very, very positive, and the actual result was underwhelming.

The data that was trickling in before April's jobs report was very, very negative, and the actual result was marginally worse than March's was.


What have we learned, poligaf?

That "The Price is Right" rules are closest without going over.

Spoiler

Already knew this.

 

[Clevinger]

115,000.

Current narratives on the economy hold steady.

112k

110k

Hokuten wins. Lero and Phoenix in 2nd, 3rd.

What does Hoku win? A lost job. Thanks, Obama.

 

[Ecotic]

I just want some clarity. I mean, I get it, we're in a slow recovery. I just wish I knew how that translated to November.

 

[Measley]

I just want some clarity. I mean, I get it, we're in a slow recovery. I just wish I knew how that translated to November.

Basically if the UE rate is below 8.0 in November Obama wins by a landslide.

If the UE rate ticks back up to 9% by November, Romney actually has an argument, and it'll be a close election.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

So what's holding back the economy right now? What could the government do right this moment to jump start things a bit more? I was expecting them to use some more stimulus but that's not happening anymore is it?

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Basically if the UE rate is below 8.0 in November Obama wins by a landslide.

If the UE rate ticks back up to 9% by November, Romney actually has an argument, and it'll be a close election.

No way. It's not that simple. You're discounting all of the people (86 million) who have stopped looking for jobs or aren't currently looking for jobs.

Also, if the economy starts picking up, all it will take is 6 million of those 86 million to start looking for jobs and the UE rate will jump to over 11%.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/03/news/economy/unemployment-rate/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

 

[Measley]

So what's holding back the economy right now? What could the government do right this moment to jump start things a bit more? I was expecting them to use some more stimulus but that's not happening anymore is it?

Nothing significant will happen until after the election. The U.S. economy is currently on cruise control.

 

[thefro]

So what's holding back the economy right now? What could the government do right this moment to jump start things a bit more? I was expecting them to use some more stimulus but that's not happening anymore is it?

Europe's recession due to austerity and weakness in the Chinese/Brazilian markets.

The oil price spike probably didn't help either, but that's tanking now so that'll be a positive.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

So what's holding back the economy right now? What could the government do right this moment to jump start things a bit more? I was expecting them to use some more stimulus but that's not happening anymore is it?

Start another war?

 

[Blergmeister]

Start another war?

New Deal 2: Electric Boogaloo?

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

So what's holding back the economy right now?

Republicans

 

[Aaron Strife]

Of course, the thing people will take away from this is that the unemployment rate has dropped.

Good news for Obama!

 

[The Librarian]

Republicans

Good thing we didn't pass that American Jobs Act.

 

[ReBurn]

Of course, the thing people will take away from this is that the unemployment rate has dropped.

Good news for Obama!

Yeah, good news as long as people don't ask why the rate has dropped. People giving up their job search isn't exactly a banner jobs achievement.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-05-04-10-29-45

In April, the percentage of adults working or looking for work fell to the lowest level in more than 30 years. Many have become discouraged about their prospects.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...oft/2012/05/04/gIQAjtdB1T_blog.html#pagebreak

Wonk Time!

Wouldn't a infrastructure stimulus do wonders to that Construction UE rate? Damn

Monthly jobs reports are noisy. The data jumps around. Economists tend to prefer a four-month average of unemployment numbers. So let’s do that.
In January, the economy added 275,000 jobs. In February, we added 259,000. In March, it was 154,000. So that’s an average of 206,000 jobs per month. To put that in perspective, that’s about the average monthly jobs pace of the best year during the 2000s (namely, 2005). But it’s not enough to get us back to full employment anytime soon.

On Participation Rate

A recent research note from the Federal Reserve of Chicago looked into this question and found that both explanations are true. About half of the decline in the labor force can be explained by demographic factors. Baby boomers are retiring, and fewer teenagers work nowadays. This would be happening even if the economy were healthy. But the other half is due to the slack in hiring.

 

[Loudninja]

So thats:

February-259,000
March-154,000
April-115,000

 

[The Librarian]

Yeah, good news as long as people don't ask why the rate has dropped. People giving up their job search isn't exactly a banner jobs achievement.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-05-04-10-29-45

A large part of that is baby boomers retiring, so take that into account.