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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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Manmademan
Member
exactly.
and what would ACTUALLY help is reversing some of the ridiculously hostile positions and policies the GOP has adopted towards hispanics.
This is EXACTLY what Bush did, and he actually made inroads there. Unfortunately republicans have chosen to ignore one of the few things Bush did that WASN'T a huge mistake, and they're losing them in droves.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Bush actually did a handful of very good political/humanity-helping things. Too bad they were overshadowed the mountain of stupid fiscal/military things.
The fact that the republican leadership can't see how important hispanics are to their future is hilarious. They will never win over blacks in a large degree (outside of nutters like Colonel West), but they could have a chance with hispanics if they reversed course on their stupidity.
The two things I will give bush credit for are his attempts to help combat AIDS in Africa and his effort to keep the bigotry of not only his party, but of Americans in general, suppressed. A lot of prejudice against hispanics has been brewing under the surface for decades as their population soars, and the backlash against muslims, arabs, anyone who looks remotely middle-eastern in the wake of 9/11 could have resulted in all out race-wars, even internment camps.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Well, looking at the history of immigrants and foreigners under democrats of the past, he could have made a big political statement as being the party that doesn't round people up because of their background, but instead, he remained mum on that and now the party is what it is. He was never the voice of the party. He never was a leader, just shuffled through the motions and read what was given him to read.
speculawyer
Member
If they are political bloggers and they can't bother to read the presidential nominee's book then why in fuck would anyone bother listening to such lazy misinformed idiots?
And eating dog at 6 years old when living in Indonesia is something to hold against him? Really? Yeah, I think Romney already has the xenophobic nativist vote. I don't think people with even a part-way open mind are going to hold something that a 6 year old did against him.
That's true. Although I assume if he got to the point that he was losing Ohio, VA and NC would be a lot less likely to swing in his direction. Colorado will definitely be voting for Obama though, imo. If their Dem senator could win in the Republican wave election of 2010, I can't see Obama losing in an election that will have significantly higher voter turnout, especially youth vote with the marijuana ballot measure. Anyone who tries to label that state as a swing state is reaching, imo.
Manmademan
Member
seconded
The "race war" fantasy is one of those things that's popular in white separatist circles and pretty much no where else. That kind of animosity between the races (especially in urban areas where most minorities tend to live) doesn't really exist.
And no, internment camps are pretty clearly unconstitutional. It's not the 40s anymore and the public would never stand for it- muslims or not.
Manmademan
Member
agreed.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama is up in a new NC poll? Link please?
What is legal or not changes as the culture and society changes, even if the court makeup doesn't change, and even if the law doesn't change.
Segregation was constitutional. And then it wasn't.
Preventing women from voting used to be constitutional. And then it wasn't (due to the passage of an amendment). But given the mindset of osciety today, it probably wouldn't be constitutional today either, due to the 14th amendment. You w ouldn't need to amend the constitution to allow women the right to vote, or to prevent states from banning women from voting, in today's culture.
Laws and the constitution don't ultimately matter. How we interpet, follow, and enforce them as a society does. Society in practice determines the "true" meaning of laws.
Manmademan
Member
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=606b97e8-1956-418c-9106-3d46735f73cf
Survey USA. has him up 47-43 over romney, with 9% undecided.
You're overlooking that rights and social norms are a LOT harder to reverse or take away once they've been granted, and we're not just talking in the legal sense, but in the court of public opinion. Segregation was legal, then public outcry forced it's repeal- good luck getting it legal again. anyone even proposing it at this point would be impeached immediately.
the vast majority of americans alive today recognize overt racism and things like "internment camps" are unacceptable. Even if you COULD find some kind of legal loophole that allowed you to throw muslims in internment camps at will (and you really can't) good luck finding someone willing to enforce that, and good luck getting the population to back you on it.
I'm loving how much people are underestimated fact checking in recent years.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
When will the job numbers for last month be released?
Same as always.
He's two-faced and rich. Also he tax evades with foreign bank accounts.
Same as always.
He's two-faced and rich. Also he tax evades with foreign bank accounts.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
lol at people still falling for PD
Obama is getting: NV, CO, IA, PA, and VA. That's all he NEEDS, without FL or OH.
Obama is getting: NV, CO, IA, PA, and VA. That's all he NEEDS, without FL or OH.
speculawyer
Member
Indeed . . . those are both good things. The AIDS in Africa bit was harmed by some stupid abstinence-only stuff.
I'd also add the "no-call" list as a Bush achievement.
Manmademan
Member
Well, Romney's biggest problem is that he's considered to be insincere in his positions by BOTH parties, and his performance during the primary only reinforced this. That's really a problem of his own making- its very easy to find video/audio of romney taking both sides on almost every major position, from healthcare, to the auto bailout, to whether or not he would have gone after bin ladin in pakistan...because of that, Hardcore conservatives don't like him, independents don't like him, and Liberals don't like him. He has very little financial support among the public and most of his funding is coming from a few very wealthy donors.
which leads into Romney's next criticism- we're currently in an environment where the conflict of interest between the "99%" versus the "1%" are getting a lot of traction, and Romney as a member of the super wealthy is generally portrayed as out of touch with the problems of the common man, and his policies are portrayed as benefiting the wealthy and corporate interests at the expense of everyone else. Unfortunately for Romney, he consistently makes gaffes that reinforce this- "corporations are people, my friend" and "I'm not concerned about the very poor" are two of the worst. expect to see a lot of those during campaign commercials.
On TOP of that, Romney has a "tax problem"...swiss bank accounts, hiding assets in the caymans, and refusing to release more than 1 year's worth of tax returns. When taking the position that everyone should be paying their fair share re: taxes, this creates a problem, and only makes it easier for people like Obama to point out that the 1% are doing everything they can to dodge paying their tax obligations while demanding cuts in services and raised taxes from everyone else.
Romney also (confusingly) portrays himself as a political outsider and "not a politician" even though he's been running for office consistently for over a decade now- he's just bad at it. He leans heavily on his experience with Bain Capital when arguing that he's the best person to lead the economy into recovery- unfortunately Bain and companies like them tend to make their income by shipping american jobs overseas, laying off employees, things of that nature and it undermines his argument.
speculawyer
Member
-Out-of-Touch with average person
-flip-flopper
-Not a real conservative (from those on the right)
-Passed Obomneycare (from those on the right)
-Anti-Reproductive rights . . . he said he supported Personhood amendment which effectively would ban birth control pills (He is trying to figure out a way of supporting this w/o banning birth control but those are just the facts of the way it works.)
-Wants to cut his taxes despite massive deficits and the fact that he only paid 13.9% tax on $20million
-Trying to take vague positions to cover both sides of an issue (See personhood & the pill above, saying he'll cut tax rates but eliminate loopholes w/o specifying what loopholes, complains about deficit but has policies that will massively increase the deficit, etc.)
-War mongering (Wanted to keep troops in Iraq, will do anything Israel instructs him to do, etc.)
Black Mamba
Member
i believe he also stated he'd like to get rid of planned parenthood which for many women is their only way to even get the physicals they need.
Tax policy is absurd. basically wants bigger breaks for the wealthy at the expense of larger deficits.
And really, the fact that he's a republican (in its current form) should be enough.
Tax policy is absurd. basically wants bigger breaks for the wealthy at the expense of larger deficits.
And really, the fact that he's a republican (in its current form) should be enough.
adamsappel
Member
And Obama turned it around on them at the Correspondent's dinner. Instead of being like Romney and lamely trying to explain that the dog really liked it, Obama says pitbulls are delicious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nypMSXKgtaA
An Obama ad on Romney's positions on women's issues. God damn, the Obama camp is NOT letting up at all. You can tell they've really been prepared for him.
An Obama ad on Romney's positions on women's issues. God damn, the Obama camp is NOT letting up at all. You can tell they've really been prepared for him.
Invisible_Insane
Member
To defend what some of you see as my being unreasonably bullish on Romney, let me make a few points:
1) I agree that Mitt Romney is a fairly weak candidate and Obama a fairly strong one, but I think extreme conservative antipathy to Obama is likely to improve Romney's chances.
2) We agree that the most likely path to victory for Romney requires either a massive scandal from the administration or an somesort of economic cataclysm that produces extreme shockwaves for the US election. A serious scandal seems fairly unlikely, but factors like the slowdown in China and continued perturbation in the Eurozone are uncertainties that I think have to be factored in to Romney's advantage.
3) Obama is likely to run the better campaign, but I think ultimately the post-Citizens United climate will play in Romney's favor.
4) I'm not sure how effective the efforts of various state legislatures to suppress likely Democratic voters will play out, but again, I think that uncertainty will likely be resolved in Romney's favor.
Given those factors, do you still think my assessment of Romney's chances is excessively favorable?
Aaron Strife
Banned
The last three polls from NC (PPP, Civitas, SurveyUSA) all had Obama leading. Not sure why anyone would consider it worse for Obama than a toss-up at this point.
My problems with him:
-He endorsed the Ryan plan source
-He wants to get rid of Obamacare. I don't love Obamacare, but it is better than what we had, and he doesn't seem to have any sort of plan at all for what Obamacare does solve (pre-existing conditions, forcing insurance to pay at least 80% toward actual care, etc)
-He wants to get rid of quite a few other government programs and funding, including Planned Parenthood:
source
-Shit like this proves that he doesn't give a crap about the growing student loan problem, and even feels like throwing a shitty jab in:
source
That one seriously offended me.
-We should only speak of inequality in quiet rooms source
-His foreign policy advisers are from the Bush administration source
-He signed that piece of shit anti-tax pledge
-He wants to repeal Wall-Street reform source
-He pledged opposition to gay marriage source
Ghost_Protocol
Member
Especially considering the fact that he didn't have to pay anything to go to school
Souldriver
Member
Okay, the amount of ads from the Obama camp is impressive. (Unless off course gaf as an aggregate only posts the Obama ones, and not the Romney ones.)
Either way, they all seem to be about clear policies and things that are/can be fact checked. Especially the rebuttal from that female campaign manager to the attack ads from Big Oil is nice. There should be more of that in general.
Either way, they all seem to be about clear policies and things that are/can be fact checked. Especially the rebuttal from that female campaign manager to the attack ads from Big Oil is nice. There should be more of that in general.
speculawyer
Member
Because they want Romney to win (Romney fans) or they want it to be viewed as a close race (news organizations).
cartoon_soldier
Member
Just saw a youtube ad against Obama's use of Bin Laden attacks from some veterans group, asking him to not politicize it.
Black Republican
Member
nearyevery poll ive seen shows obama really strong in VA
51-44 washington post says
http://ow.ly/aGGLc
51-44 washington post says
http://ow.ly/aGGLc
el retorno
Member
Just an observation:
Its not an "ad" it will never go on TV and probably will only be seen by his own supporters.
They´re great videos but their not "ads" their campaign videos.
More people will see these campaign videos this election than they will regular ads on TV.
That's the beauty of them, less production costs, and more reachiness.
PhoenixDark
Banned
To be fair that new poll has 9% undecideds and is a slim lead. Given that he barely won it in 08, it's fair to keep it as a toss up
If minorities and young people show up, Obama will win NC. And obviously if that happens it'll likely happen in other places=big Obama victory
edit: from the WaPo Virginia poll
It's a video that's distributed to promote something. That's an ad. Whether or not it's on television doesn't make it an ad or not. Do you not consider web-only 15 second videos you're forced to watch before YouTube videos ads?
Regardless, this is a silly argument to have.
Souldriver
Member
But will it reach the target audience? You know, older people, registered voters, "independents", ...
Those people almost always have their minds made up already.
Out of that group the ones who don't are 34-50, that is usually who makes up the independents and they will look at the internet far more than a TV which they just change the channel or ignore because they are sick of political ads.
With the infrastructure Obama has in place and has had since 2008 those people will get registered to vote properly. That is not of a concern with the amount of field offices he has open in almost every state.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Are you guys assuming that they won't cut shorter versions for tv commercials? I'm not really following this conversation. :/
When instagram can get a million users in a day, I think it can spread pretty far. I don't think the Bama campaign is focusing on just strategic points like typical campaigns, but instead, they're taking advantage of the viral nature of conversations, while not being super obvious about it. They're letting the organic nature of it play out.
Four months down the line, if anyone tries to bring up these issues, it's nothing more than a youtube link away to refute them and kill the convo.
Souldriver
Member
I was just pondering on the best strategy worth your money (regardless of the fact that Obama will off course release tv ads as well). Obama is releasing a bunch of internet videos. As opposed to tv ads, they will probably reach more viewers, but it's a totally different audience. I was wondering which medium/strategy makes for the biggest net gain in voters.
You might be right.
Obama did a great job at starting a grass roots campaign based on social media in 2008. It seems like he might repeat this in 2012. He has lots of competent people in his campaign.
PhoenixDark
Banned
How can you pay attention to social media if you're unemployed and can no longer afford internet/a Mac? This could be good news for Mitt Romney
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
:jnc
:lol
BotoxAgent
Member
if they are young and unemployed, they are usually still living with their parents and using their interwebz....duh
That's it, you're off the ignore list, just for the lulz now. Keep bringing that gold, Jerry!
BTW: Obama +7 (51%) over Romney in VA.
Best part? Seemingly, the larger the poll, bigger the lead.
WaPo / 964 RV / O+7
PPP / 680 RV / O+8
Ras / 500 LV / R+1
I fully expect a new Ras poll showing R+3 within 1 week.
Souldriver
Member
I don't know squad about statistics, but I thought that the size of a sample is pretty irrelevant (or at least only of minor importance) to how correct a poll is. The methodology of composing the sample is more important.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The larger the sample size, the more accurate it is, ASSUMING you have other factors correct, such as demographics, and sample selection.
There is of course, a point of diminishing returns.
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