It doesn't work and history has proven that it doesn't work, but it hasn't stopped Republicans over the last 30 years from pretending that it does.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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It doesn't work and history has proven that it doesn't work, but it hasn't stopped Republicans over the last 30 years from pretending that it does.
It should. A growing economy should always be preferable to a depression.
The Librarian
Banned
"Re 96k jobs, economists say margin of error is plus or minus 100k. So we could have added 200k or lost jobs. So silly to make central."
https://twitter.com/jonathanalter/status/244068959496859648
Remember last year. August report came in at 0 jobs created, then was revised to 100k in September.
https://twitter.com/jonathanalter/status/244068959496859648
Remember last year. August report came in at 0 jobs created, then was revised to 100k in September.
LegendofJoe
Member
It does work, if the tax cuts are targeted at the actual employees of businesses. It's why most big companies offer their employees health insurance as part of their compensation package. It can work, but it has to be done at the business level, not the individual level. And the tax expenses have to be used to do something useful, like providing health insurance or job training.
I mean, this is going to be a tick down on 538, but overall I don't think it'll change the overall math -- as people have been saying, the economy sucks, but we still don't blame Obama for it (and I do think republican obstructionism is part of the reason why, as witness their historically low approval rating). I think the convention was well targeted at converting "big tent" undecided and unlikely voters to likely Democratic voters. That google politics stat matters. So time will tell. I don't think this will play much into whether we see a convention bounce (although we'll be hearing all about it if we don't).
The Librarian
Banned
Lovely. After not coming back after everyone dismantled your "fact check" source on Bill Clinton's speech, you come in here with a chart that was made when the data said that Q4 of 2008 had a contraction of ~3%, not the 8.9 that it was.
College kids quitting summer jobs?
Edit: is there usually a bump in people leaving work force around this time?
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
At least you admit it's a gem. It must have some value.
I'm sorry to hear about your family's medical problems. I can understand now why you feel so strongly.
But, honestly speaking, your post really came off as cold and uncaring. There's a reason why I'm not the only one who reacted that way to it.
planar1280
Banned
Americans have a clear choice.
1. Go on current track and have a net gain of jobs between 80-180K every month up to the point we catch up to the number of 2009 of 7.9 and then keep on steadily falling
2. Go back to the period between 2001 to 2009 where we went from 4.4 % unemployment rate to 7.9% unemployment rate and climbing.
The World is looking at The United States. They know which choice will confirm their status as world economic leader.
1. Go on current track and have a net gain of jobs between 80-180K every month up to the point we catch up to the number of 2009 of 7.9 and then keep on steadily falling
2. Go back to the period between 2001 to 2009 where we went from 4.4 % unemployment rate to 7.9% unemployment rate and climbing.
The World is looking at The United States. They know which choice will confirm their status as world economic leader.
thats not something to hang your hat on today, the best you can hope for is a good september number with a decent upward revision for August... until then its 96k and its not good
As I posted, 200k of that labor force contraction was between 16 and 19, so this is definitely a factor.
Then Obama has nothing to worry about. The UE rate in the majority of swing states is well below the national average.
Wow, that's more high school kids than college kids
So basically, high school kids leaving their summer jobs and going back to school.
So basically hardly anyone has left the work force due to being discouraged.
So more than half was seasonal jobs for teenagers coming to an end? The way they do every year? That's...kind of a major point to simply gloss over in the reporting.
Officerrob
Banned
OK, I've calmed down a bit, but as you can see this affects me deeply. Yes, I have a job, and I'm grateful, but sometimes I think what good is having a job when you have to borrow to pay your bills because you are being swallowed in medical bills?
I appreciate your concern. I'm usually not so hot headed, but I fear it will get much worse before November comes. Perhaps what I said came off as cold, perhaps not (people have said both), but it was never intended to seem like I was happy that people can't find jobs.
planar1280
Banned
Under Bush: 2001 to 2009
Under Obama: 2009-2012*
Battleground States
Who is better off now than four years ago
Michigan - 11.3 - 9%
Ohio - 8.6 to 7.2%
Iowa - 6.1 to 5.3%
Who is worse off now than four years ago
Nevada - 9.6 to 12 %
North Carolina - 9 - 9.6%
Colorado 6.6 to 8.3%
Who is unchanged
Virginia - 5.8 to 5.9%
Wisconsin - 7.2 to 7.3%
Florida - 8.7 to 8.8%
Under Obama: 2009-2012*
Battleground States
Who is better off now than four years ago
Michigan - 11.3 - 9%
Ohio - 8.6 to 7.2%
Iowa - 6.1 to 5.3%
Who is worse off now than four years ago
Nevada - 9.6 to 12 %
North Carolina - 9 - 9.6%
Colorado 6.6 to 8.3%
Who is unchanged
Virginia - 5.8 to 5.9%
Wisconsin - 7.2 to 7.3%
Florida - 8.7 to 8.8%
Yeah, I'm actually surprised they don't seasonally adjust for that. But the seasonal adjustments have been kind of iffy in general since the recession started.
If there were quite a few more seasonal jobs than last year, wouldn't that mess up the BLS's new job number estimate?
Might explain why the ADP numbers don't match up with BLS this month.
I just don't get why this number and the number we got a few days ago differ so greatly? I mean in the past they've been rather close right? Someone somewhere has been doing something weird.
they were close last month for the first time in a while. ADP has been off of BLS. Like was mentioned though, last year saw a huge upward revision for August, you can hope that when Sept numbers come out that that happens. If that does happen, with a decent number for Sept, you MAY see a 7.9% which would be a pretty big psychological hurdle
The Librarian
Banned
I remember reading somewhere that the ADP report is off by an average of 60k. Above and below.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/07/in-defense-of-adp/
Given the size of the problem, it's probably best to treat all the economic indicators the way we treat polls, really -- all relevant but none conclusive.
RustyNails
Member
But bilbo, it's not elitism to state the obvious. Average American is a high school dropout/graduate, works in Walmart or as a construction worker, and lives in a home he cannot afford. Which is why majority of Americans have voted against their interests countless times, and many still do. You might think you're defending a poor joe sixpack against latte sipping limo liberals in monocles, but there's absolutely nothing to defend. Americans like small bite sized talking points, word plays and idiotic, childish chants (drill baby dril!! or USA USA USA). Someone takes out a whiteboard like Ross Perot to explain the complex problems facing our country, and he is fried on national TV and Americans alike. They want government services, but want government out of medicare and a smaller government. They want jobs, but less government spending. They look at UE rate to feel how the country is doing, rather than actual job numbers.
This isn't necessarily a ding at "Average American" but more of a rant at our failing education system, from 1st grade to the prohibitively expensive Graduate school.
planar1280
Banned
Based on unemployment in Battleground states, if you gave all very tight races to Romney or Obama based on if the unemployment is worse is better this is how it stands...
Obama has to win 1 of the 3 States
Romney has to win 2 of the 3 States
Obama has to win 1 of the 3 States
Romney has to win 2 of the 3 States
Basileus777
Member
Well not including New Hampshire.
RustyNails
Member
CNN Newsroom had a Dem, Undecided and Repub voter panel.
Dem voter is voting for Obama
Undecided voter is definitely leaning Obama, and thought Mitt blew his chances with a vision-less RNC speech
Repub voter thought Obama speech was really good, and is "open to voting for Obama".
Dem voter is voting for Obama
Undecided voter is definitely leaning Obama, and thought Mitt blew his chances with a vision-less RNC speech
Repub voter thought Obama speech was really good, and is "open to voting for Obama".
I was impressed with the level of understanding expressed by the undecided. I was expecting her to be like everyone else on TV and be a total idiot
cartoon_soldier
Member
Based on unemployment in Battleground states, if you gave all very tight races to Romney or Obama based on if the unemployment is worse is better this is how it stands...
Obama has to win 1 of the 3 States
Romney has to win 2 of the 3 States
Yea...Romney winning NV will be very hard for him. Dems have one of the best GOTV efforts there backed by Harry Reid's team.
Beat me to it. :lol
RustyNails
Member
She was better than every other fake ass "undecided voter" in last night's panel.
Based on unemployment in Battleground states, if you gave all very tight races to Romney or Obama based on if the unemployment is worse is better this is how it stands...
Obama has to win 1 of the 3 States
Romney has to win 2 of the 3 States
Real talk. You actually think Romney has a shot at NH?
planar1280
Banned
Nothing needs to be done
Officerrob
Banned
The CNN "undecided" panels during the RNC were awful as well. You could easily pick out the Romney and Obama voters two seconds after they started speaking
It's not. As all the fact-checkers have noted, more people are working today than when Obama took office, albeit not very many more.
"Are you incrementally very slightly better off than you were 4 years ago?"
Goddamn it, I was really hoping for a 200k report.
At this point I just hope this situation is better by Summer 2014 when I'll finish grad school and re-enter the workforce.
I remember back from 2002 to 2007, whenever I needed a job I just went out and got one. It wasn't something I was particularly worried about at any point. Someone was always hiring. I got my first post-college job through a friend. It paid very well, and I was the only one who interviewed. They hired me on the spot.
This year I interviewed for an assistant director's position at a non-profit. The job ended up going to a woman in her 50's with 30 years experience in the industry. A 27 year old guy with 4 years of professional experience interviewing against someone with 30 years in the industry, for a low-level job. Things like that just shouldn't happen.
Worst is that corporate profits are so high right now, and businesses have aggregate cash reserves in the trillions. There is so much capital available to solve every problem we have, but it just doesn't flow.
At this point I just hope this situation is better by Summer 2014 when I'll finish grad school and re-enter the workforce.
I remember back from 2002 to 2007, whenever I needed a job I just went out and got one. It wasn't something I was particularly worried about at any point. Someone was always hiring. I got my first post-college job through a friend. It paid very well, and I was the only one who interviewed. They hired me on the spot.
This year I interviewed for an assistant director's position at a non-profit. The job ended up going to a woman in her 50's with 30 years experience in the industry. A 27 year old guy with 4 years of professional experience interviewing against someone with 30 years in the industry, for a low-level job. Things like that just shouldn't happen.
Worst is that corporate profits are so high right now, and businesses have aggregate cash reserves in the trillions. There is so much capital available to solve every problem we have, but it just doesn't flow.
ThisWreckage
Banned
Romney's campaign is bombing the hell out of NC. They've shown 8 Romney ads in the past two hours. I don't think I've seen a single one for Obama. I expect similar results in other swing states.
planar1280
Banned
National polls dont matter, national unemployment doesnt matter
What matters is polls in battleground states and battleground states unemployment
You can have the national unemployment rate plummet because Alabama and north carolina had a bad month but ohio and michigan went up
What matters is polls in battleground states and battleground states unemployment
You can have the national unemployment rate plummet because Alabama and north carolina had a bad month but ohio and michigan went up
TacticalFox88
Banned
At this point, I seriously doubt there is ANYONE who is genuinely on the fence between Obama and Romney, so this so called "Shitty" Jobs report is pretty much meaningless. Voters made up their minds long ago, and evidence has shown that it heavily favors Obama.
You'd have to apply some serious cognitive dissonance to believe otherwise.
You'd have to apply some serious cognitive dissonance to believe otherwise.
RustyNails
Member
Romney is now legally allowed to use his re-election campaign money, hence the blitzkrieg. Expect a similar blitzkrieg from Obama from Monday.
ThisWreckage
Banned
I can see this completely turning voters off. Which is not the goal they have in mind.
My favorite is the "you don't know real voters, but I do" aspect of these predictions. In the same breath he says that everyone he opposes is being an elitist for saying how blocks of people will vote and then says that he knows how they will vote and HE knows what the true American people are feeling. It's not elitist when he does it.
Even if you cite a statistic that shows how many people are not working it does not fully predict who they will vote for. It's a proxy measure. A strong proxy measure, but still a proxy.
How about this. Some people will have predictable voting patterns ... but some will not. We won't know until election day. This is the type of speculation that often reveals bias.
What are the ads like? Just saying how bad Obama is? No actual accomplishments or details from Romney outside of Olympics and he ran Bain but no details on what he actually did?
ThisWreckage
Banned
The ones I've seen criticize lack of jobs and the unemployment rate.
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