PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
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The Librarian
Banned
Bad news for Obama.
jamesinclair
Banned
Has any president ever won a reelection with a vp from delaware?
Bad news for Obama
Has any president won an election while winding down a war in Afghanistan?
Bad news for Obama
Bad news for Obama
Has any president won an election while winding down a war in Afghanistan?
Bad news for Obama
StopMakingSense
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
Has Obama ever won a re-election?
Nope.
Nope.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Max Baucus gearing up for tax reform failure
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81795.html
Meh. Just let the Bush tax cuts expire, pass a tax cut for the middle class, cut corporate tax rate to 28%, call it a day
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81795.html
Meh. Just let the Bush tax cuts expire, pass a tax cut for the middle class, cut corporate tax rate to 28%, call it a day
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Blowing their load how? What does this mean, exactly? Who cares? What does "overconfidence" matter except to avoid having egg on your face on a message board? We're all going to vote. The Obama campaign is not going to start shutting down offices early because they think they've got this. What else matters? Why wring your hands about "overconfidence"? It's completely meaningless.
If you're worried that an apparent Obama blowout in the polls is going to depress Obama voter turnout to the point that it loses him the election, that's mathematically absurd.
Black Mamba
Member
This is not how you interpret polling.
Most of these polls have a margin of error around 3-4 percent. If truth is that Obama is up 6.5 and a poll comes out at 4, this is normal and expected.
In fact, if there wasn't a poll coming out at 4, something would be off. If the truth is Obama is up 6.5 and there are 20 polls ran, the odds of not a single one showing a race as close as 4 would be ridiculously low. So low that if it happened, we'd have to wonder if the polling is even accurate to begin with.
To put it simpler. If Obama's true lead is 6.5, we'd expect a few polls ending at 4-5 and 8-9 point leads and a bunch between 5-8. We'd actually expect a few polls even worse and better than these figures.
One poll cannot show a race tightening. No matter how reliable PPP is, random noise will dictate they be 3% off over 10% of the timeand 2% off often.
edit: +4 isn't good news for Romney because it's withing the SoE of where the other polls show. Unless a handful of other polls come out it means nothing. It doesn't mean PPP messed up, either.
Aaron Strife
Banned
North Carolina
Obama 48
Romney 48
LEAN ROMNEY
Obama 48
Romney 48
LEAN ROMNEY
eBay Huckster
Member
WRAP IT UP OBAMAILURES
Public Policy Polling's work is obviously heavily skewed and not correctly sampling Democrats.
I should note that after that Ohio poll they retweeted two or three leftist Twitter trolls saying that their poll was bullshit for not showing a wider Obama margin. Amazing stuff, really.
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
I don't think its reasonable for the Obama Administration to claim that it opposes a law because it would lead to government intrusion into medical decisions, especially when European one percenters travel here to exploit it because its illegal over there. Supporting this law, whatever its merits (I haven't read it), would undermine the "War Against Women" narrative.
Father_Brain
Banned
People are crazy, they dont get how big 4 points.
Black Mamba
Member
It's not that. It's as I said above, they don't understand what it means. People don't understand math but they love to comment on it.
and PPP takes some fault here for not explaining it. Their poll saying he's up 4 could just as well mean he's up 7.
Who is this from?
Black Mamba
Member
PPP, from their tweet. Not posted, yet.
Thanks,now that race is tight!
And yet, by your logic, he already undermined the "War Against Women" narrative earlier this year.
That's not the only reason stated by them:
"the end result of this legislation would be to subject doctors to criminal prosecution if they fail to determine the motivations behind a very personal and private decision."
Like you, I'm not familiar with the law, but if it's much more hardline/overreached than the European laws then I can understand the administration's hesitance. And by the way, I agree that there should be a law against this. Having abortions just for gender preferences is pretty gross.
Every single time he gets banned I always wonder why. Haha.
There's basically understandable reluctance to enact any further abortion restrictions while states are still using abortion "limits" to make abortion de facto illegal, especially ones that will allow states to prosecute doctors for performing abortions if they can't prove they weren't done for gender selection reasons, and indeed, if desired, to run stings in order to prosecute and imprison them. That's basically the point Obama's making.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I responded to your previous post, but I guess you did not see it. The article you posted was about in vitro fertilization. If European women are flying here in order to get abortions for gender reasons, can you please provide some legitimate information about that? thanks.
Byakuya769
Member
Damn, so Manos did get hit with a perma?
Yes.
Surely the European women would just lie about their reasons for seeking an abortion.
I have no problem with sex-selective abortion, but banning it doesn't actually seem very likely to reduce its incidence as long as "don't want a baby right now" is a legitimate reason.
Whoa. What finally broke the camel's back?
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Ok, we can start simpler, any data on european women flying here in order to get abortions (for whatever reasons)?
el retorno
Member
For what? Who is going to inform us of every little thing involving gun laws now?
; ;
I feel weird that I'd feel kind of sad over that considering how horribly we started out in that occupy thread
The Librarian
Banned
To date, the 2012 elections in PoliGAF summed up:
PhoenixDark - "Romney's going to win, etc."
cartoon_soldier - "The media is going to be against him! It's gonna be rough!!!"
Diablos - "Guys, Romney! Guys, UH OH!!"
GhaleonEB - "These economic indicators aren't making any goddamn sense with the BLS monthly reports."
Aaaron Strife - "My optimism shall not abate. We will go on, and we will win!"
Cyan - "Let's be reasonable here."
eznark - "I'm just around for the entertainment."
Jackson50 - "[long post here]...and I'm a sesquipedalian poster. Also concinnous."
ToxicAdam - "You all need to get a room."
Empty Vessel - "The deficit doesn't matter. Now, let me type out an extremely long post detailing why."
Kosmo - "LOL, [insert ignorant false equivalence]."
pidgeon - "I'm pretty chill, but I'm gonna call out bullshit when I see it."
speculawyer - ". . . weirdly spaced periods."
Hitokage - "Sticking by to make sure things stay pleasant."
Tamanon - "Still here."
chichikov - "I'll type one sentence then I gotta press the Enter key."
TacticalFox88 - "Let me show you this funny picture."
Clevinger - "Nothing good is ever going to happen ever."
Manos - "GUNS"
HylianTom - "Oh, their delicious tears."
scorcho - "From time to time, I'll make a genuinely funny troll post, but other than that I got this levelheadedness thing down."
Reilo - "lol, PD."
Tim-E - "Yeah, not buying that."
Black Republican - "hey"
gcubed - "You all make me sad. Relax."
Oblivion - "*snickers* Guys, did you see those suckers in that OT political thread? Totally got 'em."
AlteredBeast - "Republican Party, be more sensible!"
Rocket Scientist - "Wait, what does this mean?"
RDreamer - "Wisconsin."
Stinkles - "The GOP's fucking insane."
Loud Ninja - "Post and link here."
Pantherlotus - "I'm still here too!"
Cheebo - "I'm chicken little no longer."
AniHawk - "I'm not so sarcastic here."
dude abides - "Well, you're getting that wrong."
Dr. Pangloss - "Not Spock."
incognito - "This is a pretty humorous story."
quadriplegicjon - "I am crossing my arms at you."
Forever - "I got a lot of good shit to say."
Dax01 - "Fuck you, PD."
PhoenixDark - "Romney's going to win, etc."
cartoon_soldier - "The media is going to be against him! It's gonna be rough!!!"
Diablos - "Guys, Romney! Guys, UH OH!!"
GhaleonEB - "These economic indicators aren't making any goddamn sense with the BLS monthly reports."
Aaaron Strife - "My optimism shall not abate. We will go on, and we will win!"
Cyan - "Let's be reasonable here."
eznark - "I'm just around for the entertainment."
Jackson50 - "[long post here]...and I'm a sesquipedalian poster. Also concinnous."
ToxicAdam - "You all need to get a room."
Empty Vessel - "The deficit doesn't matter. Now, let me type out an extremely long post detailing why."
Kosmo - "LOL, [insert ignorant false equivalence]."
pidgeon - "I'm pretty chill, but I'm gonna call out bullshit when I see it."
speculawyer - ". . . weirdly spaced periods."
Hitokage - "Sticking by to make sure things stay pleasant."
Tamanon - "Still here."
chichikov - "I'll type one sentence then I gotta press the Enter key."
TacticalFox88 - "Let me show you this funny picture."
Clevinger - "Nothing good is ever going to happen ever."
Manos - "GUNS"
HylianTom - "Oh, their delicious tears."
scorcho - "From time to time, I'll make a genuinely funny troll post, but other than that I got this levelheadedness thing down."
Reilo - "lol, PD."
Tim-E - "Yeah, not buying that."
Black Republican - "hey"
gcubed - "You all make me sad. Relax."
Oblivion - "*snickers* Guys, did you see those suckers in that OT political thread? Totally got 'em."
AlteredBeast - "Republican Party, be more sensible!"
Rocket Scientist - "Wait, what does this mean?"
RDreamer - "Wisconsin."
Stinkles - "The GOP's fucking insane."
Loud Ninja - "Post and link here."
Pantherlotus - "I'm still here too!"
Cheebo - "I'm chicken little no longer."
AniHawk - "I'm not so sarcastic here."
dude abides - "Well, you're getting that wrong."
Dr. Pangloss - "Not Spock."
incognito - "This is a pretty humorous story."
quadriplegicjon - "I am crossing my arms at you."
Forever - "I got a lot of good shit to say."
Dax01 - "Fuck you, PD."
Aaron Strife
Banned
I found out that Russ Feingold was strongly pro-gun, therefore I will step up to that plate.
Needs way more psychoanalysis.Dax01 said:
PhoenixDark
Banned
RIP Manos. One of the few posters here who viewed most issues objectively
anyone know how to contact him btw...
anyone know how to contact him btw...
England tends to get used for that, more often. Many European countries only have legal abortion in the first trimester.
SouthernDragon
Member
am snubbed
Pretty accurate though.
-----
RIP MANOS never stop.
GUNS
It's a one-point move from PPP's last. I never thought Obama was up 8-9 points in Ohio; 4-5 feels about right.
Ouch. Another one bites the dust.
And now we know why! They'll be revising the first half of the year up 20%, if their preliminary baseline adjustments hold.
Half and half
Member
C'mon pre debate Romney tax returns.
*shakes dice and kisses it*
*shakes dice and kisses it*
RustyNails
Member
Why was manos banned again?
Aye. Their last three polls have been +5, +6, and now +4. Not much to see here, that's about as steady as you can expect from three polls of a state in a month's time.
It was the guns on the Colorado university campus thread. He was going hard on that one, mods even gave him a chance to save himself but he kept going.
Nice.
Thagomizer
Member
Fucking gold, A+.
Byakuya769
Member
Dax, you have overlooked me for the final time.
Actually a much more succinct critique than 'liberal echo chamber' and contains the same message.
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