PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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pigeon said:
Nate Silver is burning down Pharos Research on twitter right now. Says they failed to answer such basic questions as "who does your calling."

Pharos produced a set of reasonably pro-Democratic polls recently -- even in Florida, +3 in Ohio. I think one or two got mentioned here. O'Keefe trolling 538? They have the kind of terrible web design that just screams movement conservative.

Also, SurveyUSA just showed Obama down by 8 in Georgia -- same margin as 2008.
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O'Keefe has been mysteriously quiet as of late. I just assumed he was working with Trump on the secret tape.
 
I rather like the 270towin app for the iPad. They have election histories just like the app above, along with the major issues and circumstances of each campaign. I also like being able to shade each state with "safe" or "lean" or "slight" for each side.

Every day when the afternoon shift arrives here at work, I have the app pulled-up with and on display with my latest predictions. This app - along with the idea that "Tom studied political methodology in college" - keeps my liberal co-workers calm.. and lately, confident.
 
Checking in... what's the current consensus on the likelihood of either winning? Is Obama still heavily favoured because he's got leads in most swing states, or has Romney closed the gap enough that the electoral college is a toss-up overall?

When I imagine Romney as President, it's a little bit surreal and kinda terrifying. I'm hoping that if he does win that he'd be 'moderate Romney', but I think he's too indebted to special interest groups.
 
Socreges said:
Checking in... what's the current consensus on the likelihood of either winning? Is Obama still heavily favoured because he's got leads in most swing states, or has Romney closed the gap enough that the electoral college is a toss-up overall?
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Obama still hovering around 75% over the past week, fluctuating a few percents up or down.
 
Socreges said:
Checking in... what's the current consensus on the likelihood of either winning? Is Obama still heavily favoured because he's got leads in most swing states, or has Romney closed the gap enough that the electoral college is a toss-up overall?
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Obama has multiple paths to victory in electoral college, whereas Romney has a very narrow path. Obama can win without Ohio (where poll aggregates show he's leading for over 6 months), whereas Romney cannot.
 
RustyNails said:
Obama has multiple paths to victory in electoral college, whereas Romney has a very narrow path. Obama can win without Ohio (where poll aggregates show he's leading for over 6 months), whereas Romney cannot.
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Romney could win without Ohio if the secret Dick Morris CA poll is true.
 
Paches-EJ- said:
Obama still hovering around 75% over the past week, fluctuating a few percents up or down.
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Thanks, Paches. Just doing the basic math then... would that put Romney at 73% then?

RustyNails said:
Obama has multiple paths to victory in electoral college, whereas Romney has a very narrow path. Obama can win without Ohio (where poll aggregates show he's leading for over 6 months), whereas Romney cannot.
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Thanks.
 
The reason I think Christie's outspoken support of the President is relevant is that Bernstein had a study back during Benghazi that said the "rally round the flag" effect that boosts Presidential approval ratings during a crisis only happens if politicians from the opposite party do the rallying themselves. Christie's the only GOP politician saying anything about Obama's performance during a crisis and he's giving him incredibly positive reviews.
 
The above screenshot is what I see backstage. Traffic has doubled every 1-3 weeks since July; lately the doubling time has been 6 days. We’re running at about three times the traffic we got in 2008. Today, the Princeton Election Consortium received nearly 200,000 views. Note the number of referrals from Reddit, Facebook, and Twitter. That’s a new development. The list used to be heavier on politically-oriented sites such as Andrew Sullivan, Kevin Drum, and Balloon Juice. Liftoff?
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The media's bullshit is having the reverse effect. People are getting more interested in scientific polling aggregation.
 
So, if the Romney campaign were to declare that they were halting their campaign and donating all remaining funds to the Red Cross relief effort, my respect for them would jump immediately. This half-assed campaigning/'storm relief stuff' is not cutting it for anyone. I mean, imagine how many more votes you would get. Some people might be like "it's a political ploy" but overall even if it is, they're making a big difference, and many people across the nation would respect that.
 
Bajan32 said:
What? I did the online registration where u had to print out and mail it in. I did that back in the last day of September. I haven't gotten anything back yet.. No sample ballot or where my polling station is supposed to be :/
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Same with me, there way no way to register online that I could find.

Anyway, just call your local election office and they'll be able to confirm you're registered and tell you where your poll station is.



StopMakingSense said:
http://registertovote.ca.gov
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Still have to print and mail.
 
pigeon said:
The reason I think Christie's outspoken support of the President is relevant is that Bernstein had a study back during Benghazi that said the "rally round the flag" effect that boosts Presidential approval ratings during a crisis only happens if politicians from the opposite party do the rallying themselves. Christie's the only GOP politician saying anything about Obama's performance during a crisis and he's giving him incredibly positive reviews.
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he's the only GOP politician in the devastated area.
 
Not just MSNBC but all liberal media has anti-obama ads.
WTF?
Does anyone every hear anti-republican ads on any right-wing media?
Are liberals that fucking greedy that they take advertising money from anyone even those against everything their shows rail against?
 
TiVo said:
Not just MSNBC but all liberal media has anti-obama ads.
WTF?
Does anyone every hear anti-republican ads on any right-wing media?
Are liberals that fucking greedy that they take advertising money from anyone even those against everything their shows rail against?
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Profit is king.
 
RustyNails said:
Obama has multiple paths to victory in electoral college, whereas Romney has a very narrow path. Obama can win without Ohio (where poll aggregates show he's leading for over 6 months), whereas Romney cannot.
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More specifically, he would need to get EVs from multiple states where Obama is currently leading in polls. Without OH, Obama could get those EVs from other states where he's ahead in the polls (VA) or merely tied (CO, NC).

I don't think the latter is likely - my gut feeling is that if Romney outperforms his current polling in OH to win, he'll outperform it in enough other states to make an Obama victory impossible - but it's a lot more plausible than Romney's options.
 
TiVo said:
Not just MSNBC but all liberal media has anti-obama ads.
WTF?
Does anyone every hear anti-republican ads on any right-wing media?
Are liberals that fucking greedy that they take advertising money from anyone even those against everything their shows rail against?
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MSNBC isn't really a liberal channel (they're a left of center channel that puts a right wing hack on for three hours every day in the morning). But yes, even a liberal corporation would put profits first. That's what corporations do.
 
Clevinger said:
MSNBC isn't really a liberal channel (they're a left of center channel that puts a right wing hack on for three hours every day in the morning). But yes, even a liberal corporation would put profits first. That's what corporations do.
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But I've listened to Rush, Hannity, Chris Plant, Mark Levin and have yet to hear pro-Obama/anti-Romney ads. Fox News, WMAL,etc. And isn't the conservatives more Corporation friendly?

That would tell me that the right puts ideology above profit while the left doesn't.
 
TiVo said:
But I've listened to Rush, Hannity, Chris Plant, Mark Levin and have yet to hear pro-Obama/anti-Romney ads. Fox News, WMAL,etc. And isn't the conservatives more Corporation friendly?

That would tell me that the right puts ideology above profit while the left doesn't.
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Maybe they don't do ad buys on those stations? I don't know for sure with those.
 
Ezra Klein on the Nate Silver backlash

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/

The answer to this is simple enough: If Silver’s model is systematically biased, there’s a market opportunity for anyone who wants to build a better model. That person would stand to gain hugely if they outpredicted punditry’s reigning forecaster (not to mention all the betting markets and all the other forecasters). The math behind what Silver is doing isn’t that complicated and the polls are easily available. But so far, the most popular conservative take on the polls was UnskewedPolls.com, to which…LOL. If Silver’s model is so easy to best, then what’s the market failure keeping a less biased source from besting it?
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In other news, Nate still throwin' down on Twitter

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

.@DylanByers: We have a lot of readers because we use data to cut through the drivel that you obsess over. Not because we make predictions.
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Byers is a Politico reporter
 
Cloudy said:
Ezra Klein on the Nate Silver backlash

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/
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oh plus here's that reasonably stated hopium for those who still doubt again

So before we deal with anything Silver has specifically said, it’s worth taking in the surrounding landscape: Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any we’ve yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.

There’s no doubt about that. Real Clear Politics, which leans right, shows Romney up by 0.8 percent nationally, but shows Obama up in Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney is up in Florida and North Carolina, but note that his lead in Florida is smaller than Obama’s lead in Ohio. And RCP shows Colorado and Virginia tied. Pollster.com, meanwhile, shows Obama leading by a point in Colorado and Virginia and the race tied in Florida.

It’s important to be clear about this: If Silver’s model is hugely wrong — if all the models are hugely wrong, and the betting markets are hugely wrong — it’s because the polls are wrong. Silver’s model is, at this point, little more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation.
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This latest Romney stuff is infuriating. What a terrible person.
 
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