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[B-Dubs]

CNN just announced they've been briefed by a senior intelligence official who gave them a minute-by-minute timeline of the Benghazi attack. Hopefully this will stop all the bullshit.

Spoiler

It won't.

Are we really going to have to do this again? Really?

 

[Officerrob]

What % of Iowans have voted early (estimation)?

36.1%

557,432 Iowans have voted early, total vote in 2008 was 1,543,662.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

 

[Marvie_3]

obama has zero chance of losing iowa. tired of it being discussed the last month or so.

Agreed. We should be focusing on how he's going to lose Minnesota.

 

[bananas]

This is what insanity looks like...

 

[gcubed]

CNN just announced they've been briefed by a senior intelligence official who gave them a minute-by-minute timeline of the Benghazi attack. Hopefully this will stop all the bullshit.

Spoiler

It won't.

Highlights:
-Was done to set the record straight in light of the Fox nonsense
-Help arrived roughly 25 minutes after it was requested
-Accusations that military wasn't involved are false; military aid was essential

But Republicans say you're a liar. We report, you decide!

 

[speculawyer]

Ras with 3 more good state polls for Romney? Seriously, when did he ever have a bad state poll for Romney compared to the other pollsters. Because mathematically it has to happen.

I'm guessing right before the GOP convention.

Spoiler

So they could show a big convention bounce.

 

[Dude Abides]

.

 

[Angry Grimace]

What are they?

+3 R US
+3 R CO
Tie WI

IO not released yet, but their last poll was tie, so I'm expecting either +1 Romney or possibly +2. All three of their polls are conservative-slanted outliers from the polling average. Iowa polling average is 3.2, Wisconsin polling average is +4 and Ohio polling average is +2.6, all in favor of Obama.

 

[Byakuya769]

Interesting how most of the anger in the Amirox thread is basically the same as the standard GOP rhetoric against welfare recipients. I suppose we're all vulnerable to that sort of thinking.

I just got caught up on this, and no. I see social benefit to helping people (and primarily their related children) on the margins, even if they do some drugs here and there. I really see no benefit to helping a guy out so he can drop half a g on drugs. He can pull his closed-fund accounting bullshit, but the people who gave to him basically allowed him the liberty to spend that much on drugs. And it was to "make the election week come by quicker."

Man, what the fuck. What if he had admitted to taking a trip to Disney World, driving to Vegas, or was just posting a huge haul in the "recent pickup" thread? He deserves what he's getting right now.

 

[Trurl]

Sam Wang now has North Carolina as a tossup. Is he a crazy person or is this reality?

 

[Black Mamba]

What are they?

R+3 Co
R+1 Iowa
Tie Wisconsin

Every single state poll I see he's done is bearish on Obama versus everyone else. Random chance says a few polls have to be the other way (or at least in lock step with them if his methodology leans GOP).

There's only two ways this is possible. Either he's fudging numbers or his methodology is fucking perverse (or it will be vindicated I suppose). His numbers also seem, to an eye's glance, a bit too stable.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Obama apparently had bad crowd counts today too

2600 in WI
4500 in vegas

 

[NullPointer]

CNN just announced they've been briefed by a senior intelligence official who gave them a minute-by-minute timeline of the Benghazi attack. Hopefully this will stop all the bullshit.

Spoiler

It won't.

Highlights:
-Was done to set the record straight in light of the Fox nonsense
-Help arrived roughly 25 minutes after it was requested
-Accusations that military wasn't involved are false; military aid was essential

But where's the birth certificate? Huh? Tell me that.

 

[Cloudy]

Fox is flogging Benghazi hard. I wonder if Romney will go back to this to close out the campaign

 

[Angry Grimace]

R+3 Co
R+1 Iowa
Tie Wisconsin

Every single state poll I see he's done is bearish on Obama versus everyone else. Random chance says a few polls have to be the other way (or at least in lock step with them if his methodology leans GOP).

There's only two ways this is possible. Either he's fudging numbers or his methodology is fucking perverse (or it will be vindicated I suppose). His numbers also seem, to an eye's glance, a bit too stable.

I still laugh about Rasmussen missing the HI senate election in 2010 by 40 points.

 

[Manmademan]

I just got caught up on this, and no. I see social benefit to helping people (and primarily their related children) on the margins, even if they do some drugs here and there. I really see no benefit to helping a guy out so he can drop half a g on drugs. He can pull his closed-fund accounting bullshit, but the people who gave to him basically allowed him the liberty to spend that much on drugs. And it was to "make the election week come by quicker."

Man, what the fuck. What if he had admitted to taking a trip to Disney World, driving to Vegas, or was just posting a huge haul in the "recent pickup" thread? He deserves what he's getting right now.

Can't say i disagree.

Even when I'm flush with cash, I'm reluctant to drop $400-$500 on total bullshit. If he had said "groceries" or "clothing" I don't think anyone would care.

But asking GAF for money for any reason, then blowing your own money on whatever just shows a lack of respect. how many people dipped into their own funds and went without games or booze or fun because they thought there was a serious monetary issue?

again, I like the guy. but that was a bad move.

 

[markatisu]

What % of Iowans have voted early (estimation)?

Here are the cumulative numbers for the absentee ballot requests:

Dems 291,022 (43.09%)
Reps 208,374 (30.85%)
Inds 175,142 (25.93%)
Oth 864 (negligible)

TOTAL 675,402

Here are the new ballot requests since the 10/31:

Dems +5,170
Reps +4,693
Inds +4,872

Absentee ballot requests going down a bit in general as we get closer to election day.

And now, here are the cumulative numbers for actual ballots cast:

Dems 241,430 (43.31%)
Reps 179,675 (32.23%)
Inds 135,547 (24.32%)
Oth 680 (negligible)

TOTAL 557,432

Here are the ballots cast since the 10/31 report:

Dems +8,968
Reps +8,403
Inds +7,927

Info comes from DailyKos which gets it from the state http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153637/-Iowa-Early-Voting-Update-11-1-12

 

[speculawyer]

Sam Wang now has North Carolina as a tossup. Is he a crazy person or is this reality?

Well, that's the thing about the models . . . they are what they are. It doesn't matter if Sam is crazy, as long as the model is good and the data is input properly, the results are objective results. Sam has no input other than the initial model creation. And I believe he has an open model so you can look at it yourself to determine if you think it is good or not.

 

[Slime]

But where's the birth certificate? Huh? Tell me that.

Screw the birth certificate, the government needs to allow journalists into HAARP to ensure they didn't engineer Sandy to save Obama's flailing campaign.

 

[NullPointer]

Screw the birth certificate, the government needs to allow journalists into HAARP to ensure they didn't engineer Sandy to save Obama's flailing campaign.

I wasn't going to go there. But YES.

*scrounges through collection of contrail photos and worn Tesla biographies*

Was going to make this exact response. Is our snark getting too predictable?

I'd argue that its not we that are the predictable ones here. You can easily see the random shit being tossed against the wall here, The Republican machine trying anything and everything to gain traction.

Gotta load up that catapult with everything you've got.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Well, that's the thing about the models . . . they are what they are. It doesn't matter if Sam is crazy, as long as the model is good and the data is input properly, the results are objective results. Sam has no input other than the initial model creation. And I believe he has an open model so you can look at it yourself to determine if you think it is good or not.

Didn't Wang have some kind of methodology dispute with Silver?

 

[polyh3dron]

Fox is flogging Benghazi hard. I wonder if Romney will go back to this to close out the campaign

please please please do this

i want to see mittens go out in a blaze of glory so his concession speech will basically be this:

 

[Puddles]

Can someone explain margin of error for me?

If a poll is 49_47 with margin of 3 it's a tie because it could go either way

But now say the polls are

49_47
48_47
50_47

All Obama. By combining all the sampled, doesn't the margin drop?

When you take a sample, you're using a sample proportion to try and estimate the true population proportion (i.e. proportions of voters who support Obama, Romney, etc).

With any sample mean or proportion, you get something called a standard error, which is affected by the size of the sample. The formula for this is standard deviation/sqrt sample size. Thus a larger sample size = a smaller standard error. The standard error is used to calculate the confidence interval. A confidence interval is basically you saying "I am 9x% certain that the true population proportion is between these two numbers."

To get a smaller confidence interval, you need a larger sample size, because a larger sample size reduces the standard error. It wouldn't be exact, but combining polls could have this effect.

For example: if the true population proportion of Obama voters in Ohio is 52%, and most polls have a MOE of 3%, you would expect to see polls ranging from 49% to 55% supporting Obama. If Romney is then at 48%, you would expect to see polls ranging from 45% to 51% for him. But if you were to graph all those polls on a histogram, they would cluster around a mode that would be very likely to approximate the true population proportion.

The math basically confirms common sense: if a lot of polls are predicting one outcome, that outcome is more likely than if a single poll were showing it.

 

[Kinvara]

I am TOTALLY unsure about who is going to win. Locally Ive seen barely any political movement, no signs to speak of, no visible support. The Benghazi cover up SHOULD be enough to turn the tide against Obama but unsurprisingly the media is silent on the fact - anyone who doesn't think there's a heavy media bias towards Obama is willfully ignorant.

My main priority for a political candidate is their stance on Israel. Obama has proven himself to be the most hostile president to Israel EVER in our administration. It's kind of a niche-ish subject - you don't know what goes on unless you know where to look, and I've been keeping track of it. Mitt Romney proves to be more of a friend of Israel than Obama by far so I'm voting for the lesser of two evils.

Like I said before, benghazi as a cover up by the administration breaking loose should be a MAJOR influence in the vote, but it's barely being covered.

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

 

[BuggyDClown]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

Fuck Israel? Why the hell do we care? We shouldn't be involved in any of those countries? Ect ect

 

[PhoenixDark]

Fox is flogging Benghazi hard. I wonder if Romney will go back to this to close out the campaign

Tapper just released an article on it
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/the-benghazi-drip-drip-drip/

some ugly shit

This afternoon, journalists Harald Doornbos and Jenan Moussa in Foreign Policy Magazine reported that when they arrived at the compound in Benghazi on October 26 they found “several ash-strewn documents beneath rubble in the looted Tactical Operations Center, one of the four main buildings of the partially destroyed compound. Some of the documents — such as an email from Stevens to his political officer in Benghazi and a flight itinerary sent to Sean Smith, a U.S. diplomat slain in the attack — are clearly marked as State Department correspondence. Others are unsigned printouts of messages to local and national Libyan authorities. The two unsigned draft letters are both dated Sept. 11 and express strong fears about the security situation at the compound on what would turn out to be a tragic day. They also indicate that Stevens and his team had officially requested additional security at the Benghazi compound for his visit — and that they apparently did not feel it was being provided.”

 

[pigeon]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

SHIP IT

 

[polyh3dron]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

well for benghazi, this:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43866032&postcount=12482

 

[heliosRAzi]

.

 

[Officerrob]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

Ehud Barak, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, disagrees:

“I think that from my point of view as defense minister they are extremely good, extremely deep and profound,” Barak, a former Israeli prime minister, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. “I can see long years, um, administrations of both sides of political aisle deeply supporting the state of Israeli and I believe that reflects a profound feeling among the American people. But I should tell you honestly that this administration under President Obama is doing in regard to our security more than anything that I can remember in the past.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/79162.html

 

[JCizzle]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

I think you should launch into a tirade berating him for being an anti-American traitor and having the gall to question the President following a tragedy. It seemed to work well for the GOP for 8 years.

 

[RiZ III]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

Israel? Really? We have a ton of problems to worry about back here at home like health care, the environment, teaching actual science in schools, funding education, loans and grants for college students, not raising taxes for the middle class, letting the bush tax cuts expire, and the list goes on. Frankly Obama has been very level headed about Israel. He is actually trying to stick up for American interests instead of theirs. He has prevented us from getting into another war (with Iran this time), and had the balls to speak up against the illegal settlement building there. Of course that last bit was short lived.

 

[PhoenixDark]

To be clear, I don't think this is a cover up or Obama fuck up. The embassy requested extra security from the State Department, so as much as it pains me to admit this goes to Hillary moreso than the president; it's very likely he didn't know about this.

It's a very ugly story, and those four people definitely died due to poor security despite asking for more.

 

[The Librarian]

Nate Cohn on those PEW early vote numbers:

But part of why Romney performs well in national polls of early voters is the composition of the states with substantial early voting. Many of the large, Democratic-leaning states in the northeast and Midwest, like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan don’t permit in-person early voting. Illinois now allows in-person early voting, but the state still prefers to vote on Election Day, as just 10 percent voted early in 2008. The only blue states with more than 10 electoral votes casting an above average share of their votes in early voting were Washington and California. In contrast, the three largest red states of Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee each cast an above average share of their ballots early. So far in 2012, each of those states has reported higher early voting turnout than California or Washington, where millions of ballots will be cast by mail. As a result, “red states” are beating “blue states” in early voting by an 8.5 million to 4.9 million vote, according to figures taken yesterday from Michael McDonald’s indispensible site on early voting.

Don't jump the gun when panicking.

 

[RustyNails]

I don't understand what more information idiots need on Benghazi. They've created a fantasy (Obama snorting coke off hookers' asses in oval office while Amb. Stevens pleading for forgiveness on live webconference), and will stop at nothing until that fantasy is fulfilled, even twisting and contorting facts to do so.

 

[Puddles]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

It's really difficult to reason someone out of a position that he did not reason his way into.

 

[Black Mamba]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/79162.html

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=288778

That should tear down his Israel claims.

also:

Bibi on meeting Obama:

You know, I’m always pleased and-- and happy to have a conversation with President Obama. He’s-- I think he’s met me more than any other leader in the world and I-- I appreciate that. We’ve had our discussions.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4905109...effrey-goldberg-andrea-mitchell/#.UJMD129_Cpo

 

[Maxwell House]

Ras with 3 more good state polls for Romney? Seriously, when did he ever have a bad state poll for Romney compared to the other pollsters. Because mathematically it has to happen.

Rasmussen is a Fox News polling company and they don't contact cell phone numbers...i.e. completely ridiculously old white people biased garbage polls. They aren't even worth looking at.

 

[StopMakingSense]

I don't understand what more information idiots need on Benghazi. They've created a fantasy (Obama snorting coke off hookers' asses in oval office while Amb. Stevens pleading for forgiveness on live webconference), and will stop at nothing until that fantasy is fulfilled, even twisting and contorting facts to do so.

Well when their beliefs involve a lack of evidence being evidence in of itself, you can't really do anything to please them.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't understand what more information idiots need on Benghazi. They've created a fantasy (Obama snorting coke off hookers' asses in oval office while Amb. Stevens pleading for forgiveness on live webconference), and will stop at nothing until that fantasy is fulfilled, even twisting and contorting facts to do so.

To be fair, the administration has played into their hands by being so contradictory and vague. I realize the issue is that the CIA slowly fed the administration information but it doesn't look good to outsiders - hence why a clearer message/response was needed.

 

[Chichikov]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

Ask him what's the difference between Obama and Romney in regards to Israel.
Though reading that post, I seriously doubt you'll be able to persuade him in anything, so personally, I wouldn't bother.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Benghazi has no traction, shouldn't they be focusing on the real issue of insisting all polls that don't show Romney leading by 15 points are corrupt conspiracies

 

[Maxwell House]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Romney will win Ohio

LOL, reality escapes you. Obama is handily winning Ohio.

 

[Black Mamba]

Nate Cohn on those PEW early vote numbers:


Don't jump the gun when panicking.

Obama leads Romney 54 percent to 39 percent among voters who already have cast ballots, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks. The sample size of early voters is 960 people with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Pew used like 200 people with a MoE of 7. It's worthless.

Rasmussen is a Fox News polling company and they don't contact cell phone numbers...i.e. completely ridiculously old white people biased garbage polls. They aren't even worth looking at.

While true, they should still have a few polls be more in line with everyone else.

If the other polls shows Obama +2 and Ras's poll methodology says tied, they should get as many Romney +2 as Obama +2. But they aren't. It seems to always lean Romney.

 

[JCizzle]

Benghazi has no traction, shouldn't they be focusing on the real issue of insisting all polls that don't show Romney leading by 15 points are corrupt conspiracies

I've thought this for a few weeks now honestly. While I know Romney doesn't control these people by gunpoint, I think he should have asked an influential surrogate or two to quietly reach out to Fox/Rush/etc. and ask them to dial back on this conspiracy garbage and just hammer the economy. POTUS killed Osama, the GOP isn't going to win on foreign policy this election.

 

[pigeon]

http://www.theonion.com/articles/this-may-not-be-the-ideal-moment-politically-but-i,30203/

At this point I think the Onion has a specific editor to do stories they hope will turn into unironic dadspam.

 

[speculawyer]

Help me craft a good response to this, polligaf

I want to crush this mofo with righteous facts.

Why bother? He's a nut. We already give billions to Israel and stand with them no matter what they do. What more are we supposed to do for them? Since when did they become the 51st state?

Benghazigate? The way he phrases it explains the story, he just doesn't see it. Dude, maybe "the media" is not totally biased for Obama . . . maybe the one media outlet you listen to is totally biased for Romney? Duh.

Don't bother, he's hopeless.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Ras with 3 more good state polls for Romney? Seriously, when did he ever have a bad state poll for Romney compared to the other pollsters. Because mathematically it has to happen.

Rasmussen had +5 Obama in Penn. Willing to bet $20 that when Scott publishes his next PA poll Romney will have gained at least 3 if not more points.

I've thought this for a few weeks now honestly. While I know Romney doesn't control these people by gunpoint, I think he should have asked an influential surrogate or two to quietly reach out to Fox/Rush/etc. and ask them to dial back on this conspiracy garbage and just hammer the economy. POTUS killed Osama, the GOP isn't going to win on foreign policy this election.

There aren't any undecided voters left that care about Benghazi. And frankly, anyone undecided on November 1, 2012 is by definition too stupid to understand Benghazi.

 

[Black Mamba]

Rasmussen had +5 Obama in Penn. Willing to bet $20 that when Scott publishes his next PA poll Romney will have gained at least 3 if not more points.



There aren't any undecided voters left that care about Benghazi. And frankly, anyone undecided on November 1, 2012 is by definition too stupid to understand Benghazi.

Wow, you found 1. Well, at least we know they exist. Not in any of the real swing states, of course.

 

[Cloudy]

http://t.co/WeAvzDki

Final Political Kombat with alternate endings lol