The point - Why The Xbox Is Losing

I think you're missing the elephant here. The market does not want to be forced to pay an extra $100+ for a camera they don't want.

Disagree. The price is going to go down regardless. Always on and no used games was the elephant in the room. We weren't were having massive threads months before the May reveal about Kinect being in the box.
 
I'm disagreeing with the journalist's opinion that softcore follows in the steps of hardcore, if anything, they follow in the footsteps of other softcore gamers and what is familiar.

My point is that selling your system to what he calls the "softcore" is more important than really getting the hardcore gamers behind you.


Just agree to disagree. I think a majority of hardcore gamers play the big blockbuster games, and it's a nerdier niche that's just elitist and only into to Japanese developed stuff or PC gaming that hates it.

I agree with him that hardcore leads the way as that's the majority of early adopters. Softcores will buy what their more hardcore gaming friends have when they decide to take the next gen plunge as they'll want to game with them.

If getting a solid start from hardcore early adopters wasn't crucially important, we wouldn't be seeing MS backtracking so much to appeal to the concerns of hardcore gamers. They know they've got to do ok with them out of the gate our they'll end up in a hole that's hard to dig out of.
 
No need to be angrily defensive about your brand loyalty bro.

My "brand loyalty BRO" is that I have a PS4 preordered, I own a Vita, two PS3s, and my PS+ membership is prepaid until 2015.

I own all the platforms. I don't really want to drop a grand at the next launch this fall though so I'll probably only get one of the new systems for the first year or so.

Cool, can you address the questions I posted for you above?

No interest there, because this shit is devolving into stupid system wars stuff and I'm not a system warrior.
 
Disagree. The price is going to go down regardless. Always on and no used games was the elephant in the room. We weren't were having massive threads months before the May reveal about Kinect being in the box.

Those were bigger issues in the mainstream for sure.

Kinect was always a huge turn off for me though as I loathe motion control stuff and will never buy a console that packs that kind of stuff in as I don't want to financially support that trend.
 
Disagree. The price is going to go down regardless. Always on and no used games was the elephant in the room. We weren't were having massive threads months before the May reveal about Kinect being in the box.

That's because people were waiting to be shown the revolutionary ways Kinect would improve gaming. We're still waiting and every since the reveal and E3, we've had loads of threads wondering why Kinect is required.
 
I think you're missing the elephant here. The market does not want to be forced to pay an extra $100+ for a camera they don't want.

Of course, no one wants to pay $100 for just a camera, but Kinect isn't just a camera. The market never wants to spend more money, but that doesn't mean you cannot have sales success at higher price points if the features are attractive enough. The Kinect isn't just a camera as it facilitates easy voice control, more seamless account switching and security (based on 3D models of the user that the camera/software identifies), and nice perks like automatic profile/settings switching between controllers. The best thing to come out of launching at a higher price than your direct competition is that you'll be pushed to offer more to fill out that value proposition relative to them. That can only benefit X1 users over time if PS4 still feels like a better deal down the line.


Until these consoles have been on the market for sale for a while, no one knows shit outside of vague preorder numbers and ratios, so people talking about things in terms of losing and winning seems endlessly stupid when the generation hasn't even begun. Can someone boil down the key points of the video since watching the first few minutes feels like revisiting all of the same exact points made by many others in forums and on blogs and videos well before now...heard it all before and in a much more concise, to-the-point manner.
 
Just agree to disagree. I think a majority of hardcore gamers play the big blockbuster games, and it's a nerdier niche that's just elitist and only into to Japanese developed stuff or PC gaming that hates it.

I agree with him that hardcore leads the way as that's the majority of early adopters. Softcores will buy what their more hardcore gaming friends have when they decide to take the next gen plunge as they'll want to game with them.

If getting a solid start from hardcore early adopters wasn't crucially important, we wouldn't be seeing MS backtracking so much to appeal to the concerns of hardcore gamers. They know they've got to do ok with them out of the gate our they'll end up in a hole that's hard to dig out of.
Yes hardcore gamers play the big blockbuster games. I never disagreed with that haha.
But hardcore gamers still do hate on COD. Look at the BF3/MW3 war that happened lol. That wasn't the Japanese gamers rooting for battlefield :P, it was the more hardcore gamers.

And it wasn't just the hardcore gamers that were against Microsoft's policies.
There was negative news of the Xbox One on every gaming site, trending on twitter, on the front page of reddit.
The only thing that regular gamers were hearing from their news outlets about the Xbox One was the negative news regarding the DRM.
That is why they reversed it, it was the only way to save face.
 
Can someone boil down the key points of the video since watching the first few minutes feels like revisiting all of the same exact points made by many others in forums and on blogs and videos well before now...heard it all before and in a much more concise, to-the-point manner.

-Game market is made up of three major groups:

1. Hardcore gamers (play lots of games and different types of games)
2. Softcore gamers-biggest chunk of market, but really only play the blockbuster CoD, Madden type of games.
3. Casuals--families and kids. Nintendo's domain (in his view).


-Hardcore drives the industry as they are the ones who early adopt, softcore gamers follow as they'll by whatever platform their more hardcore friends already have so they can game with them, lend and borrow game with them etc. As well as just playing that sytem at their friend's house already etc.

-Talks about how MS was behind 4:1 in preorders, and thus doing all the back tracking to appeal to hardcores as they couldn't be in a situation where by 2014 softcores are picking which console to buy and have 4 times as many friends with PS4s.
 
This is where I disagree. They have lost a great deal of mindshare within the hardcore gaming community. That community is the most vocal, and can influence a large portion of the overall market through recommendations, early adoption, etc.


Hmm, you have to consider the large amount of people that were already planning on getting a PS4 anyway, and based on Sony's performance as of late, that number was quite large. Sony put a lot of it's resources towards the PS3 near the end while it would appear that MS moved it's efforts on to Xbox One, and it reflects that way with all the games that will be available during the launch window and all the recent great PS3 exclusives.

That complicates things a bit, the mind share is in favor of Playstation, but if MS pumps out some great exclusive titles, it may convince quite a few of the hardcore early adopters to buy an Xbox One. Let's not kid ourselves, the majority of the people saying they wouldn't touch an Xbox One regardless of policy changes are people that weren't planning to get one anyway.

I was personally close to pre-ordering both systems, but after hearing impressions of Knack (I really thought this game had potential) and Infamous coming out in 2014 and I never liked Killzone, it makes more sense to get an Xbox One now for Killer Instinct, Forza 5 and DR3, then get a PS4 once the big guns arrive, I have no issue getting multi-plats on Xbox One, then maybe down the line when games start getting too advanced for consoles, the PS4 at that point will probably do a better job at ports from the PC, only then I might care about getting multiplats on PS4 (unless they start killing it right off the bat, but I doubt it) but Xbox One it is.

Bottom line is, pre-orders may be 4:1, but the true picture is revealed after the first year and pre-orders account for a very small percentage of that. And lets not forget Kiosks at Gamestops and other game shops around the world, people huddling over each-other to play Killer Instinct battles or just looking at the beauty of Ryse may sway a lot of those softcore gamers towards an Xbox One, especially when the Call of Duty's and Battlefields are already available on their familiar controllers and existing Live accounts with their stacked achievements.
 
I think the problem MS faces is that they've never faced Sony like this. This is Sony poised to kill both SEGA and Nintendo with Playstation 1 level of Sony gaming division greatness. Clear messaging, clear direction, dominant specs, first party strength, ease of development, lots of hardware stock, getting more of the quirky smaller titles on board, etc.

Microsoft can tweak their policies all they want. There are clear disadvantages that they will have through the entire generation. More difficult to develop on (and weaker) hardware (though still super easy compared to this gen), more expensive package (bundled Kinect will keep them from price parity), seemingly unwilling to cultivate their own studios and would rather buy and publish someone else's IP's.

I view it a little differently. I think they're trying to attract customers in a different way. I personally would be disappointed if the only real differences between the XBOne and PS4 was just exclusive games. I know there are a lot of Kinect haters out there but I hope they continue to make sure it's in every box from beginning to the end of the console's life. It will truly prove weather or not motion control has any place in console gaming. If for anything it will enable exploration into new and different dimensions in gaming. I know that extra $100 is a huge deal to some but in the long run I don't think it'll end up mattering hardcore gamers. (less than the price 2 games). I'm not saying that it's not significant...just not necessarily a deal breaker.
 
Not saying that core games won't be on Xbox One, just like Nintendo pumped out a bunch of core games on the Wii. Is it their number one priority? Top five? From their first party investments and output I very much doubt it.

They are spending multi-million dollar budgets on multiple AAA games for the Xbox One.

Wouldn't say it's their top priority but it's definitely in the top five. I mean, heck, they are spending more on core games now than they did previously this gen.
 
-Game market is made up of three major groups:

1. Hardcore gamers (play lots of games and different types of games)
2. Softcore gamers-biggest chunk of market, but really only play the blockbuster CoD, Madden type of games.
3. Casuals--families and kids. Nintendo's domain (in his view).


-Hardcore drives the industry as they are the ones who early adopt, softcore gamers follow as they'll by whatever platform their more hardcore friends already have so they can game with them, lend and borrow game with them etc. As well as just playing that sytem at their friend's house already etc.

-Talks about how MS was behind 4:1 in preorders, and thus doing all the back tracking to appeal to hardcores as they couldn't be in a situation where by 2014 softcores are picking which console to buy and have 4 times as many friends with PS4s.

Thanks. Sounds just like dozens of other posts made on this forum. Nothing wrong with that, but feels totally late to the party. MS fucked up. Having said that, they're also doing a ton to address it (no doubt due to early preorder data and perceived meaningful mindshare being lost). Backpedaled to match the more liked console plan? Sure. And that's a good thing for those that had problems with their earlier stance and announced policies. Sony have backpedaled on PS4 (hardware/software/features/business plan) as a response to the success of X360 and it's fair and smart that MS has done the same before even launching. Not sure what the point of this video is given how late it is, but I would totally characterize MS' changes as positive and a real show of how serious they are to compete.
 
Oh list wars how I've missed you so much. Why not add Nintendo on that list as well? Do you seriously think those are the only games both Sony and Microsoft have in their stable? It's not about quantity or even quality. It's about a platform holders messaging and positioning to the development community at large that displays their moves in the coming years.

So messaging & advertising means more than actual game output and quality when it comes to a console being good for core gamers? Really?

And developers don't care about how a console is being advertised as long as its doing well enough to give a good sized userbase for people to buy what they make. Money.
 
I view it a little differently. I think they're trying to attract customers in a different way. I personally would be disappointed if the only real differences between the XBOne and PS4 was just exclusive games. I know there are a lot of Kinect haters out there but I hope they continue to make sure it's in every box from beginning to the end of the console's life. It will truly prove weather or not motion control has any place in console gaming. If for anything it will enable exploration into new and different dimensions in gaming. I know that extra $100 is a huge deal to some but in the long run I don't think it'll end up mattering hardcore gamers. (less than the price 2 games). I'm not saying that it's not significant...just not necessarily a deal breaker.

They're not attempting to attract different customers alone though. They want all the Wii customers, all the 360 customers, AND all the PS3 customers. They want them all. And at a price that will continue to be higher than PS4, I think that is a lofty goal. Casuals have moved on. Apple is putting together a more compelling package for them. Wii struck gold but that gold has been mined and isn't there anymore. Kinect provides a brief respite from standard gaming, but it doesn't have legs long term IMO.

If PS4 sells 100 million and XBO sells 50 million after 7 years because more people are "Kinect haters", is that considered a success to MS?

Hardcore gamers will buy all the consoles and also have a gaming PC. Because that's how hardcore gamers roll. But is the XBO going to be the primary gaming console outside of MS exclusives for those people? Will multiconsole owners choose to buy the XBO version of multiplats?
 
The Xbox One still has unique selling points such as its own exclusive games coming at launch as well as the future along with other features (such as kinect).

There has been many changes about the Xbox One but I don't get how the changes have completely changed what the gaming console itself will have in terms of features outside of the DRM switch and if anything, the people who are staying with physical media next gen got more features in comparison to what was originally set for them.

The PS3 had a hard time during its first few years but it wasn't solely due to its price. Other factors such as no compelling games played a role too. So far, it looks like the Xbox One won't have that "no compelling games" problem if the E3 awards are anything to go by. There's still many people that will be getting an Xbox One for its exclusives and there's still many people who aren't going to be buying a next gen console in 2013/2014 too. A greater number of people doesn't equal automatic "word of mouth buzz", especially if that greater number of people have nothing interesting to actually talk about. I mean, this summer the PS3 has gotten more buzz than the Xbox 360 in the NA (even though the latter has sold more) mainly due to it having more attention grabbing exclusives this year. I can see things being similar for the next gen consoles -- but early on. It being early on can make the momentum change with still a ton of time left in the gen.

While the current momentum shift in the PS3 is good, it's not going to matter much since this gen is pretty much over. There won't be any long term impact from it. If the Xbox One gets a similar momentum shift (at least in NA) during 2014, then it will definitely have a long term impact since the gen will have many years left obviously.

And as I've said in previous threads, the Xbox One will get a price drop before it has a SKU without kinect. MS putting the kinect in every box gives it a much better position for support and with all of the money MS put into it, they aren't going to want to change the current position that next gen kinect is in. At least not any time soon.

The only thing that I really agreed with is his description of 3 types of gamers.

I'd take those awards with a large grain of sea salt. Probably 'cuz I'm just one of those gamers who defines for themselves what games to like, not let the press define that for me.

But anyone saying XBO doesn't have compelling games right now is lying to themselves. For myself, I'm really looking forward to Crimson Dragon b/c I want to see more b-tier kind of games like it this gen. Quantum Break also looks interesting, and b/c I'm a fighting megafan, Killer Instinct at least has my attention.

All the same, I'm interested to see if Killzone can live up to the atmosphere set by the futuristic city (in one way or another) and Knack b/c I always give platformers a chance. Driveclub too, b/c I like more arcady racing games.
 
I can't believe all the reversals that have happened so far. the Xbone has been in development for, what, 3-4 years? I wonder how much of that R&D is now a wasted effort.
 
So messaging & advertising means more than actual game output and quality when it comes to a console being good for core gamers?

Really?

I'm not talking about messaging or advertising to the consumer. I'm talking about the development and market environment for game creators and publishers. Sure Microsoft and Sony will make games of a quality on AAA budgets but that isn't what drives true long term success anymore. The reason Microsoft took the generation early was their openness and embracing new emerging platforms like XBLA. Some of the most influential games this generation came from those early XBLA years and the reason Microsoft got those games was they were making a better environment than Sony throught things like XNA and developer outreach.

It looks like the roles may reverse as Microsoft's game output plays second fiddle in importance within the company. Having some of the heads of Windows who have been doing a terrible job transition to the Xbox team is not reassuring.
 
I don't see the point of this video. It's information we already had a long time ago. Just seems to be trying to hate on MS.

They changed due to consumer demands. They continue to conform to them. So what else do people want? I just think some people will never be happy.
 
I can't believe all the reversals that have happened so far. the Xbone has been in development for, what, 3-4 years? I wonder how much of that R&D is now a wasted effort.

In the world of software development, it nothing unusual to have your code thrown out at the drop of a management hat.

Also, there's always the chance that it will make a return. As soon as someone cracks/hacks the system they could bring back always-online and blame the hacker for making them tighten security.
 
In the world of software development, it nothing unusual to have your code thrown out at the drop of a management hat.

Also, there's always the chance that it will make a return. As soon as someone cracks/hacks the system they could bring back always-online and blame the hacker for making them tighten security.

"always online" never existed. It's a buzz term people use for some reason, but it never required constant connection like something like Diablo III does.
 
good video, great to see an irish lad with a bit of humour doing one of these

dont think they'll drop kinect though
 
I'd take those awards with a large grain of sea salt. Probably 'cuz I'm just one of those gamers who defines for themselves what games to like, not let the press define that for me.

Heh, I'm not saying that. All I'm saying is that many people felt that the Xbox One had better games. That's all.

Trust me -- many of the things I'm into are pretty niche (especially music) so I would never imply or say that.

Like whatever you want to like!
 
I'm not talking about messaging or advertising to the consumer. I'm talking about the development and market environment for game creators and publishers. Sure Microsoft and Sony will make games of a quality on AAA budgets but that isn't what drives true long term success anymore. The reason Microsoft took the generation early was their openness and embracing new emerging platforms like XBLA. Some of the most influential games this generation came from those early XBLA years and the reason Microsoft got those games was they were making a better environment than Sony throught things like XNA and developer outreach.

I see.

I definitely do agree that system features are just as important as exclusive games, if not more since the majority of games that are going to get mainstream buzz next gen are going to be multiplatform.
 
daily checkin if you want to play digital stuff, sure.

The disc based games required the daily check in too since they were just install discs and couldn't just play the game off the disc as the install was mandatory. It was a fully digital model with discs around for people without bandwith to download games or who wanted to be able to trade it in to a participating retailer.
 
The disc based games required the daily check in too since they were just install discs and couldn't just play the game off the disc as the install was mandatory. It was a fully digital model with discs around for people without bandwith to download games or who wanted to be able to trade it in to a participating retailer.

exactly........ I was all for that. If you have any internet at all, you can ping a web server.
 
I would have had more respect, for lack of a better term, for Microsoft had they stuck to their guns and kept the policies that they had first announced. But for them to change so much in such a short time makes me question their conviction, and suggests to me that they can, and probably will, reverse course again in six months or a year.

In short, I feel that Microsoft is simply one mandatory system update away from reverting their polices regarding DRM, used games, Kinect, etc., back to what they had originally announced.
 
exactly........ I was all for that. If you have any internet at all, you can ping a web server.

I still can't fathom people being ok with your system being locked unless you do a mandatory daily online check-in.

besides for the mythical "Family Sharing" that never existed.
 
I still can't fathom people being ok with your system being locked unless you do a mandatory daily online check-in.

besides for the mythical "Family Sharing" that never existed.

None of this exists yet. Prove it didn't exist. There's no reason to think that - and having every single game, disc or not, on your account in the cloud at your fingertips..... that's the future.

I'm online 100% of my gaming time. So why would it even affect me?
 
None of this exists yet. Prove it didn't exist. There's no reason to think that - and having every single game, disc or not, on your account in the cloud at your fingertips..... that's the future.

I'm online 100% of my gaming time. So why would it even affect me?

It wouldnt' really unless you happened to have a multi-day internet outage. So it's fine for you not to care. But others don't have reliable internet, or take their 360s to family camps with no reception or phone service etc. Everyone has different situations.

The other issue is for people who keep consoles and replay games years and years later. Who knows if the games would have remained playable two or three generations down the road when the X1 authentication servers would likely be long gone.
 
Yep my thoughts as well

I will never understand who at MS thought the softcore or even casuals would bother watching a console reveal event

Your audience for that was clearly always going to be the hardcore

No wonder it went badly

I think they were going for the news articles and light tv news segments instead of actual causal stream watchers.
 
I agree with "The Point" but it's a dead horse already...at least here on GAF. Kinect-less Xbone for $100 less seems like the next logical step, but I don't think that's going to happen at launch at this rate.
 
I think they were going for the news articles and light tv news segments instead of actual causal stream watchers.

Yeah I suppose that works but it seems a lot of effort for what amounts to a bleed through effect

For casuals/softcores that didn't watch the stream, are they that much more likely to read the types of online publications that would report on the reveal?

Or did the reveal get articles in big wider publications?
 
Why do I click on that link and it goes to the front page of the mobile site? This is actually really common for big websites, and its so broken. I end up saying fuck it and leaving.
 
MS isn't going to "lose" this gen, they have too much money to cover up their mistakes.
They definitely aren't going to "win" though. Sony has this gen in the fucking bag.

Microsoft is a public company. The shareholders are already pissed about the money that they've bled through the entertainment division. They wont let MS bleed billions more to try and gain marketshare like the did with the 360. They look at the money spent to the relatively paltry money earned compared to the enterprise division, and have told MS not again. Theyve already been burned by the zune and the surface.They really dont have the unlimited amount of money that many gaffers seem to think they do. As a matter of fact, shareholders just filed a classaction lawsuiyt against MS for being deceitful about the huge losses due to surface.

Edit: That's not to say they arent able to spend a lot of money on XB1, they just will need to be able to justify it to shareholders. If after a year Ps4 leads Xbox 2:1, they'll have a lot of explaining to do. Personally I think they are going to use Kinect 2.0 for better targetted adverts, and will be able to generate a lot of revenue that way and they won't necessaril have to be the market leader to ber making a decent profit.
 
It wouldnt' really unless you happened to have a multi-day internet outage. So it's fine for you not to care. But others don't have reliable internet, or take their 360s to family camps with no reception or phone service etc. Everyone has different situations.

The other issue is for people who keep consoles and replay games years and years later. Who knows if the games would have remained playable two or three generations down the road when the X1 authentication servers would likely be long gone.

easily fixed by a later, end of life update to remove DRM checkin.

family camps? playing video games at camps? I know it's a free country, but maybe you can't do everything you want all the time. If there was no power you could not play either. Just the way it goes. Enjoy the outdoors.
 
Wii U is dead on arrival, that we know.
Personally I find the X1 unattractive simply due to Microsofts poor hardware in the past and the fact they will still charge for Xbox Live. Sony has the complete support of everyone at a lower price with stronger features AND a retro PS catalogue on PSNetwork. It is really a no-brainer. Anything MS can do this gen, Sony can do better or good enough where it is a non-factor.

If the PS4 does not surpass 75 million after 5 years, I would truly be shocked.
 
easily fixed by a later, end of life update to remove DRM checkin.

But no guarantee of that was issued, so people understandably worried about it. These companies have little incentive to keep supporting old consoles, offer BC etc. as they'd rather people re-buy a digital version of the game for their next console on it's store/virtual console.

family camps? playing video games at camps? I know it's a free country, but maybe you can't do everything you want all the time. If there was no power you could not play either. Just the way it goes. Enjoy the outdoors.

I'm with you there, but plenty of people are obsessed and do little but game every chance they get.

Point was more just to look at it as a to each, their own thing. Online checks would have affected you (or me) but it would others for various reasons and it's fine that they were upset about it.

To me, that wasn't a big deal. The trade ins only at partipating retailers was my main problem with the DRM as I sell every game myself once I'm done with it, and need to do so to get my gaming costs down to a level I find reasonable given the limited enjoyment I get out of them compared to my other hobbies.

And, as I said eariler, Kinect packed in was the bigger deal breaker for me as I loathe motion control stuff and will never financially support it by buying a console that includes it.
 
They have a strategy??????

In a bigger picture way they do seem to have a strategy. They step into a new market, use cash reserve and their ability to push out marketing and distribution get a foothold then to push out existing players, once they have enough control they profiteer. They did this with OS, word processors and office productivity suites, browsers. They attempted to do this with server OS and web technologies but they weren't able to do it well enough.

They thought they had enough control to do that with consoles but it looked like their competition still has some fight in them. The DRM was a strategy, get the publishers onboard and strangle the PS4 with exclusives. They just didn't factor that brand loyalty is not as strong with games as they had suspected.
 
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