This is where I disagree. They have lost a great deal of mindshare within the hardcore gaming community. That community is the most vocal, and can influence a large portion of the overall market through recommendations, early adoption, etc.
Hmm, you have to consider the large amount of people that were already planning on getting a PS4 anyway, and based on Sony's performance as of late, that number was quite large. Sony put a lot of it's resources towards the PS3 near the end while it would appear that MS moved it's efforts on to Xbox One, and it reflects that way with all the games that will be available during the launch window and all the recent great PS3 exclusives.
That complicates things a bit, the mind share is in favor of Playstation, but if MS pumps out some great exclusive titles, it may convince quite a few of the hardcore early adopters to buy an Xbox One. Let's not kid ourselves, the majority of the people saying they wouldn't touch an Xbox One regardless of policy changes are people that weren't planning to get one anyway.
I was personally close to pre-ordering both systems, but after hearing impressions of Knack (I really thought this game had potential) and Infamous coming out in 2014 and I never liked Killzone, it makes more sense to get an Xbox One now for Killer Instinct, Forza 5 and DR3, then get a PS4 once the big guns arrive, I have no issue getting multi-plats on Xbox One, then maybe down the line when games start getting too advanced for consoles, the PS4 at that point will probably do a better job at ports from the PC, only then I might care about getting multiplats on PS4 (unless they start killing it right off the bat, but I doubt it) but Xbox One it is.
Bottom line is, pre-orders may be 4:1, but the true picture is revealed after the first year and pre-orders account for a very small percentage of that. And lets not forget Kiosks at Gamestops and other game shops around the world, people huddling over each-other to play Killer Instinct battles or just looking at the beauty of Ryse may sway a lot of those softcore gamers towards an Xbox One, especially when the Call of Duty's and Battlefields are already available on their familiar controllers and existing Live accounts with their stacked achievements.