theprodigy
Member
Have we all really forgotten Joe Lieberman so soon?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125900412679261049.html
This man is the reason we lost the public option, straight up.
hey, does that mean we really can blame this on the Jews
Have we all really forgotten Joe Lieberman so soon?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125900412679261049.html
This man is the reason we lost the public option, straight up.
Heh. I'd believe it since Biden has been completely absent from all of this. He would probably be useful in the Senate at least, getting 6 GOPers. If he understands what lines he can't cross, perhaps Obama and Reid should let him back into the fold for that.Power play: Harry Reid sidelined Joe Biden
By: Jonathan Allen and Carrie Budoff Brown
October 8, 2013 05:01 AM EDT
When President Barack Obama laid out his strategy for the current debt-limit fight in a private meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this past summer, Reid stipulated one condition: No Joe Biden.
And while Biden attended the White House dog-and-pony show meeting last week with congressional leaders, Reid has effectively barred him from the backrooms, according to sources familiar with the situation.
The vice president’s disappearance has grown ever more noticeable as the government shutdown enters its eighth day with no resolution in sight and a debt limit crisis looms. Biden was once Democrats’ deal-maker-in-chief, designing budget pacts with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the summer of 2011 and New Year’s Eve 2013.
But Biden’s deals rubbed Democrats raw. He gave up too much, they said.
And for that, they have frozen him out — at least for now.
“None of the deals Biden has struck have aged well from the perspective of the Democratic Caucus,” said one Senate Democratic official aware of Reid’s face-to-face insistence that Biden be excluded.
A White House official said there are no negotiations at this point so there are no back channels for Biden to work. The official pointed to Biden’s inclusion in last week’s White House meeting with congressional leaders as an indication that the vice president is being kept in the loop.
Both Reid’s office and the vice president’s office declined to comment for this story.
But the Reid-Biden tension stands out because the two men spent so much time together in the Senate — 22 years — and because they’re on the same team. It is also yet another example of how deteriorating relationships among the nation’s top political leaders are making it harder to game out a solution to the fiscal crisis.
Reid doesn’t want Biden swooping in and negotiating another 11th-hour deal with Hill Republicans. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) remains at war with Reid, a feud that escalated when Democrats leaked private emails between Boehner and Reid aides last week. House Republicans might not accept any deal with Obama’s imprimatur. And McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who is up for re-election in 2014, is best suited by not appearing in photographs with any of the other Washington leaders.
Biden has been almost entirely out of the picture. While touring flood damage a couple of weeks ago, he told Coloradans that Washington’s budget talks were “probably going to scare the living devil out of you,” but sought to assure his audience that federal emergency efforts would continue regardless.
Last week, he walked with Obama to Taylor Gourmet, a lunch spot near the White House that was offering discounts for furloughed federal workers. And Biden, like other Obama administration officials, has cancelled appearances at political events such as the Human Rights Campaign’s gala this past weekend and a planned Monday fundraiser with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
Biden has also cancelled his planned trip to campaign for New Jersey Senate candidate Cory Booker, the Booker campaign confirmed Tuesday.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat from Ohio, defended Biden by putting his deals in context of the demands being made by Republicans.
“I think he’s done the best we can get sometimes,” Brown said. “I’m not thrilled about any of the ways that some of these negotiations have gone because Republicans are willing to shut down the government and do the kinds of things they’re doing now and that’s a pretty strong hand to play when the other side knows you’re willing to go right up to the debt ceiling and maybe go past it and shut the government down.”
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) was not personally thrilled with the contours of last December’s Biden-negotiated fiscal-cliff deal, but generally praised Biden as a “force for good in enabling people to reason together.”
Still, the dynamics of the current fight might not be much different if Biden were fully engaged, he said.
“Our position is what it is and wouldn’t change simply as a result of the vice president being involved,” Blumenthal said. “It’s also the president’s position, and that may be why he hasn’t been involved.”
In December, McConnell went around Reid — and straight to Biden — to get a better arrangement for Republicans.
The GOP goal was to lock in Bush-era tax rates for as many Americans as possible, while Democrats hoped to raise tax rates on people earning more than $250,000 a year and delay the implementation of automatic “sequester” spending cuts that has been mandated by an earlier Biden-McConnell agreement.
But Biden, negotiating for the White House with McConnell, agreed instead to a compromise that permanently froze tax rates for families earning income up to $450,000 per year while halting sequestration’s severe spending cuts for only two months.
“You can see Sen. Reid’s thinking,” said one Democratic aide. “Vice President Biden negotiated it down to two months. That’s not negotiation. That’s capitulation. The entire caucus was furious.”
Obama endorsed the deal, citing the more than $600 billion in new revenues agreed to by Republicans who refused to entertain new taxes only a few weeks earlier.
Most Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Reid, also backed the plan. But many had reservations at the time. More have since experienced buyer’s remorse, believing it has made it more difficult to get Republicans to agree to increase taxes or spending.
Sequestration kicked into effect on March 1, and Democrats are mostly resigned to living under its spending caps for the time being.
At one time, White House officials insisted to Democrats on Capitol Hill that Republicans would rush to abandon the limits because they forced cuts to military programs. Now, the White House is asking House Republicans to restore funding to the government at sequestration levels, with no other strings attached.
With Biden pushed to the side, Reid has taken the reins for congressional Democrats. And they seem happy with the arrangement. Asked whether Biden should be more engaged, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) framed his response around Reid instead.
“The majority leader’s done a first-rate job,” Wyden said.
Reid has been vigilant in ensuring that Biden isn’t in a position to fold. When Reid was leaving the White House meeting with congressional leaders last week, his eyes grew wide, according to a source present.
He was informed that Biden had exited with McConnell.
national journal said:The proposal being floated right now, according to aides, would extend the debt limit for roughly one month and include dollar-for-dollar spending cuts. To win over skeptical conservatives, the House proposal is also likely to include language that would instruct the Treasury Department to prioritize its payments in the event a debt-ceiling agreement is not reached.
The decision to work separately on resolving the government-funding and debt-ceiling fights will likely surprise Republican lawmakers, many of whom acknowledged last week that they seemed to be heading inexorably toward one big, comprehensive negotiation. But with so little time remaining before the Treasury Department's Oct. 17 deadline, and the severe implications of a government default, the House leadership seems prepared to prioritize its crises.
nro said:As the shutdown continues, House Republicans are moving forward slowly, and at their closed-door conference meeting this morning, no major announcements are expected. But the leadership will discuss its next step: a debt-limit negotiating team.
In the coming days, the House will likely consider legislation that would establish a bipartisan negotiating group to resolve the current fiscal impasse. It’d include select members from both chambers, and once passed, it’d start immediately.
This debt-limit-negotiations push will also be coupled with a bill to pay essential employees. House Republicans are tying the two bills together in order to pressure Senate Democrats to take them up.
pec said:![]()
Individually, the district-by-district swing is quite variable, +4% to -23% (where + indicates a swing toward Republicans). But the average is clear, -10.9+/-1.5% (mean+/-SEM). That predicts a national popular-vote margin of D+12.0%.
Since the election is over a year away, it is hard to predict how this will translate to future seat gain/loss. If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.
Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election. An analyst would have to be crazy to predict that! However, it seems like mandatory information for a Democratic campaign strategist – or any Republican incumbent who won by less than 20 points in 2012.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/house-gop-weighing-short-term-debt-limit-extension-20131008
Not only does this story acknowledge that this is a big U-turn from yesterday's plan...this isn't even the same leak we're getting from the National Review!
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360642/next-step-negotiating-team-robert-costa
The GOP can't even keep its strategy consistent WITHIN THE SAME NEWS HOUR. This is why I'm starting to get worried. If anybody is actually driving this bus, it's not obvious.
On the other hand, it should probably clarify why their messaging is so bad.
Do you have a link to the unskewed version?pigeon said:Also, Sam Wang plays Aaron Strife with regards to the recent PPP poll:
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority/
I don't think anyone is actually driving that bus anymore...
Yeah. Their messaging is all over the place. You can really start to see how different factions of the party (i.e. Tea Party, 'moderates', and members that are more or less indifferent) are all contradicting each other.I posit that a bunch of crazy people are driving it, but they don't know where they are going and are just fighting over the wheel.
What a troll.He dodged a reporter's question at the end of the press conference on allowing a vote on a "clean" continuing resolution -- a bill to fund the government with no strings attached -- in order to end the shutdown. Boehner said on Sunday that the House of Representatives did not have the votes to pass such a measure, but vote tallies by The Huffington Post and other outlets show that the bill would likely pass.
"Doo, doo, doo," he hummed, walking out.
I tend to agree. The irrationality of 50 or so House Republicans and Boehner's creepy willingness to appease them is the only caveat that defies such logic.No way democrats fall for another super committee.
Boehner can't pass anything without democrats. The lack of Obamacare talk over the last few days has led to angry tea party members demanding a defund bill be brought up again. Chained CPI or a medical tax device cut aren't going to satisfy these people.
Mixing the shutdown and DL is going to guarantee a total tea party failure. They aren't going to get anything. Unless Obama ruins everything.
I'm with Aaron Strife and co., I really do think Dems will get back the House in 2014. If not 2014, they will start to make some serious gains and Hillary on the ticket will push them over the top in 2016.
The problem with the midterm elections now is that if Democrats gain seats, but don't take control of the chamber, we'll be in an even worse situation than we are now since the remaining GOP majority will be even more radicalized. I honestly wouldn't mind some minor concessions to take the debt ceiling out of the equation until 2016.
Uh, I've maintained this position over the past couple weeks really, regardless of what happens.Who are you and what have you done with Diablos?
Aaron Strife is a good game to play. never forgetAlso, Sam Wang plays Aaron Strife with regards to the recent PPP poll:
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority/
Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.Aaron Strife is a good game to play. never forget
Barring some catastrophic fuck up on Obama's part or by outside forces, the GOP has dug their own grave. They'll lose the House, forfeit some Senate seats, and Dems will run the table on governorships. People are tired of this shit.
That's what I mean. 2014 will be hard, but at the very least I think Democrats will make some serious gains. Hillary will seal the deal. The longer this shutdown goes on the worse it makes GOPers look.I'm less optimistic that Dems take the House, due to redistricting. It's a midyear election and Dems tend to just not show up. But I think they narrow the gap and hold the Senate. Probably won't make things any easier.
I'm semi-optimistic six years of pure obstruction and craziness and perpetual manufactured crisis produces another Dem wave election in 2016, though, especially if Hillary is the candidate.
Corbett, Snyder, Scott, and LePage are all goners. Walker, Kasich, and Haley are also possible Dem gains but they're holding their own in the polls right now, so we'll see.Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.
States like PA, CA, and NY have enough moderates left to tip the balance even in light of the extreme Gerrymandering.Dems won't overcome the gerrymandering. Ultimately I agree with Dave Weigel: I don't think the shutdown will matter to most people in October/November 2014. If the economy sucks less, republicans will lose seats; if the economy sucks more, democrats will lose seats.
And we don't know how Obamacare will play out. People are losing their healthcare plans (due to not getting them before the regulation cutoff date), businesses will continue to cut work hours/blame the law, and the prices won't be cheap enough for everyone. In short, there are gonna be plenty of people who get fucked and blame the law, right or wrong.
it's too early to call a landslide for either side. Will the democrat base actually show up? Will Obama's approval ratings rebound? Too early.
Do you have a link to the unskewed version?
Last I'd seen his polling numbers were still pretty bad.Hasn't Snyder rebounded a bit though? Unfortunately I haven't run across a decent democrat challenger.
(Regardless I won't vote for Snyder again)
We try man, we fucking try.Have we all really forgotten Joe Lieberman so soon?
On behalf of all my people, I'd like to apologize.hey, does that mean we really can blame this on the Jews
Have we all really forgotten Joe Lieberman so soon?
Anyone got a link for the story about Harry Reid's bill in the Senate? I knew he was working to pass a clean debt ceiling raise, but I didn't know about the McConnell stuff. That seems very heartening.
salon said:Today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made his move. He plans to introduce legislation to increase the debt limit, and dare Republicans to kill it with a filibuster.
But it wont be a straightforward dollar increase or a time-limited borrowing authority extension. Reid will likely use a mechanism to allow the president to increase the debt limit on his own, subject to a veto-able resolution of disapproval by the Congress. In other words, the only way the debt limit wont increase is if two-thirds of both the House and Senate feel it must be pulled back into the realm of legislative horsetrading something that will never happen absent bipartisan agreement.
What "mechanism" is that precisely?
Didn't even see the post, sorry.You're killing me, Smalls. I literally just described the McConnell rule like ten posts up.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=85313041&postcount=18444
Yeah, this is why Reid's bill is actually the McConnell Rule, which changes the debt ceiling from something that must be affirmatively raised to something that must be affirmatively prevented from raising. This raises the number of legislators who can visibly oppose it without destroying the world from 50% of one chamber to 66% of both, which basically accomplishes everybody's goals unless you actually want to destroy the world, in which case I don't want you to accomplish your goals.
If Reid can actually get this through the Senate (which seems surprisingly possible), it'll put a lot of pressure on Boehner to pass it and remove the debt ceiling forever from national politics.
...what?States like PA, CA, and NY have enough moderates left to tip the balance even in light of the extreme Gerrymandering.
Obamacare is more of an unknown right now, but I think once people start enrolling and see that it isn't so bad after all it will end up being a plus. Why do you think Republicans want it to fail so hard? If it truly was a horrible idea they'd let it run its course, and not have people like Cruz leading this almost holy crusade against a fucking law. They know once it is out of the bag and people start getting coverage next year that it will be extremely difficult to delay/defund it.
Please become a three-way race, please become a three-way race, p l e a s e.Keep in mind McConnell is facing a diehard teaparty challenger in a primary and a respectable democrat opponent in general.
PA, NY, CO, FL, MI and a couple other states if we are to believe the latest PPP poll....what?
Please become a three-way race, please become a three-way race, p l e a s e.
The working group bill:
http://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20131007/BILLS-113hr-PIH-bicamwrkggrp.xml
Where's (4) something something Affordable Care Act something something :lol(1) overall levels of discretionary spending, including for the fiscal year ending on September 30, 2014;
(2) changes in the statutory limit on the public debt; and
(3) reforms in direct spending programs.
BTW, has the Senate voted yet on the bill for backpay for federal employees? I can't imagine it wouldn't pass since the President supports it and it passed unanimously in the House (how the Tea Partiers rationalize that vote with what they're doing and what they're saying is a mystery to me)..
President Obama called House Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday morning to repeat that he wouldn't negotiate on a government spending bill or a debt-limit increase, according to Boehner's office.
The call took place at about 10:45 a.m. ET.
"The president called the speaker again today to reiterate that he won't negotiate on a government funding bill or debt limit increase," Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said in a statement.
So basically a STFU phone call from the president. We have been waiting for this call since 2010.
You're killing me, Smalls. I literally just described the McConnell rule like ten posts up.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=85313041&postcount=18444
I didn't know that. That is unfortunate but at least he's not proposing destructive policy to address it.And also thinks the deficit should be reduced. So...
Jon Stewart put Secretary Sebelius in the hot seat on the ACA rollout. He did a good job of highlighting how complex the current law is and used it as a driver for single payer. Good interview, worth a watch.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360669/boehner-democrats-want-annihilate-us-jonathan-strongThe Ohio Republican added that a grand bargain is off the table. What he wants is something that builds on the gains weve made over the past three years, puts points on the board, and doesnt raise taxes.
Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.