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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Diablos

Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/joe-biden-government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-97969.html?hp=t1_3

Power play: Harry Reid sidelined Joe Biden
By: Jonathan Allen and Carrie Budoff Brown
October 8, 2013 05:01 AM EDT

When President Barack Obama laid out his strategy for the current debt-limit fight in a private meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this past summer, Reid stipulated one condition: No Joe Biden.

And while Biden attended the White House dog-and-pony show meeting last week with congressional leaders, Reid has effectively barred him from the backrooms, according to sources familiar with the situation.

The vice president’s disappearance has grown ever more noticeable as the government shutdown enters its eighth day with no resolution in sight and a debt limit crisis looms. Biden was once Democrats’ deal-maker-in-chief, designing budget pacts with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in the summer of 2011 and New Year’s Eve 2013.

But Biden’s deals rubbed Democrats raw. He gave up too much, they said.

And for that, they have frozen him out — at least for now.

“None of the deals Biden has struck have aged well from the perspective of the Democratic Caucus,” said one Senate Democratic official aware of Reid’s face-to-face insistence that Biden be excluded.

A White House official said there are no negotiations at this point so there are no back channels for Biden to work. The official pointed to Biden’s inclusion in last week’s White House meeting with congressional leaders as an indication that the vice president is being kept in the loop.

Both Reid’s office and the vice president’s office declined to comment for this story.

But the Reid-Biden tension stands out because the two men spent so much time together in the Senate — 22 years — and because they’re on the same team. It is also yet another example of how deteriorating relationships among the nation’s top political leaders are making it harder to game out a solution to the fiscal crisis.

Reid doesn’t want Biden swooping in and negotiating another 11th-hour deal with Hill Republicans. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) remains at war with Reid, a feud that escalated when Democrats leaked private emails between Boehner and Reid aides last week. House Republicans might not accept any deal with Obama’s imprimatur. And McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who is up for re-election in 2014, is best suited by not appearing in photographs with any of the other Washington leaders.

Biden has been almost entirely out of the picture. While touring flood damage a couple of weeks ago, he told Coloradans that Washington’s budget talks were “probably going to scare the living devil out of you,” but sought to assure his audience that federal emergency efforts would continue regardless.

Last week, he walked with Obama to Taylor Gourmet, a lunch spot near the White House that was offering discounts for furloughed federal workers. And Biden, like other Obama administration officials, has cancelled appearances at political events such as the Human Rights Campaign’s gala this past weekend and a planned Monday fundraiser with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Biden has also cancelled his planned trip to campaign for New Jersey Senate candidate Cory Booker, the Booker campaign confirmed Tuesday.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat from Ohio, defended Biden by putting his deals in context of the demands being made by Republicans.

“I think he’s done the best we can get sometimes,” Brown said. “I’m not thrilled about any of the ways that some of these negotiations have gone because Republicans are willing to shut down the government and do the kinds of things they’re doing now and that’s a pretty strong hand to play when the other side knows you’re willing to go right up to the debt ceiling and maybe go past it and shut the government down.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) was not personally thrilled with the contours of last December’s Biden-negotiated fiscal-cliff deal, but generally praised Biden as a “force for good in enabling people to reason together.”

Still, the dynamics of the current fight might not be much different if Biden were fully engaged, he said.

“Our position is what it is and wouldn’t change simply as a result of the vice president being involved,” Blumenthal said. “It’s also the president’s position, and that may be why he hasn’t been involved.”

In December, McConnell went around Reid — and straight to Biden — to get a better arrangement for Republicans.

The GOP goal was to lock in Bush-era tax rates for as many Americans as possible, while Democrats hoped to raise tax rates on people earning more than $250,000 a year and delay the implementation of automatic “sequester” spending cuts that has been mandated by an earlier Biden-McConnell agreement.

But Biden, negotiating for the White House with McConnell, agreed instead to a compromise that permanently froze tax rates for families earning income up to $450,000 per year while halting sequestration’s severe spending cuts for only two months.

“You can see Sen. Reid’s thinking,” said one Democratic aide. “Vice President Biden negotiated it down to two months. That’s not negotiation. That’s capitulation. The entire caucus was furious.”

Obama endorsed the deal, citing the more than $600 billion in new revenues agreed to by Republicans who refused to entertain new taxes only a few weeks earlier.

Most Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Reid, also backed the plan. But many had reservations at the time. More have since experienced buyer’s remorse, believing it has made it more difficult to get Republicans to agree to increase taxes or spending.

Sequestration kicked into effect on March 1, and Democrats are mostly resigned to living under its spending caps for the time being.

At one time, White House officials insisted to Democrats on Capitol Hill that Republicans would rush to abandon the limits because they forced cuts to military programs. Now, the White House is asking House Republicans to restore funding to the government at sequestration levels, with no other strings attached.

With Biden pushed to the side, Reid has taken the reins for congressional Democrats. And they seem happy with the arrangement. Asked whether Biden should be more engaged, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) framed his response around Reid instead.

“The majority leader’s done a first-rate job,” Wyden said.

Reid has been vigilant in ensuring that Biden isn’t in a position to fold. When Reid was leaving the White House meeting with congressional leaders last week, his eyes grew wide, according to a source present.

He was informed that Biden had exited with McConnell.
Heh. I'd believe it since Biden has been completely absent from all of this. He would probably be useful in the Senate at least, getting 6 GOPers. If he understands what lines he can't cross, perhaps Obama and Reid should let him back into the fold for that.
 

pigeon

Banned
national journal said:
The proposal being floated right now, according to aides, would extend the debt limit for roughly one month and include dollar-for-dollar spending cuts. To win over skeptical conservatives, the House proposal is also likely to include language that would instruct the Treasury Department to prioritize its payments in the event a debt-ceiling agreement is not reached.

The decision to work separately on resolving the government-funding and debt-ceiling fights will likely surprise Republican lawmakers, many of whom acknowledged last week that they seemed to be heading inexorably toward one big, comprehensive negotiation. But with so little time remaining before the Treasury Department's Oct. 17 deadline, and the severe implications of a government default, the House leadership seems prepared to prioritize its crises.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/house-gop-weighing-short-term-debt-limit-extension-20131008

Not only does this story acknowledge that this is a big U-turn from yesterday's plan...this isn't even the same leak we're getting from the National Review!

nro said:
As the shutdown continues, House Republicans are moving forward slowly, and at their closed-door conference meeting this morning, no major announcements are expected. But the leadership will discuss its next step: a debt-limit negotiating team.

In the coming days, the House will likely consider legislation that would establish a bipartisan negotiating group to resolve the current fiscal impasse. It’d include select members from both chambers, and once passed, it’d start immediately.

This debt-limit-negotiations push will also be coupled with a bill to pay essential employees. House Republicans are tying the two bills together in order to pressure Senate Democrats to take them up.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360642/next-step-negotiating-team-robert-costa

The GOP can't even keep its strategy consistent WITHIN THE SAME NEWS HOUR. This is why I'm starting to get worried. If anybody is actually driving this bus, it's not obvious.

On the other hand, it should probably clarify why their messaging is so bad.

Also, Sam Wang plays Aaron Strife with regards to the recent PPP poll:

pec said:
moveon_ppp_500px.jpg

Individually, the district-by-district swing is quite variable, +4% to -23% (where + indicates a swing toward Republicans). But the average is clear, -10.9+/-1.5% (mean+/-SEM). That predicts a national popular-vote margin of D+12.0%.

Since the election is over a year away, it is hard to predict how this will translate to future seat gain/loss. If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election. An analyst would have to be crazy to predict that! However, it seems like mandatory information for a Democratic campaign strategist – or any Republican incumbent who won by less than 20 points in 2012.

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority/
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/house-gop-weighing-short-term-debt-limit-extension-20131008

Not only does this story acknowledge that this is a big U-turn from yesterday's plan...this isn't even the same leak we're getting from the National Review!



http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/360642/next-step-negotiating-team-robert-costa

The GOP can't even keep its strategy consistent WITHIN THE SAME NEWS HOUR. This is why I'm starting to get worried. If anybody is actually driving this bus, it's not obvious.

On the other hand, it should probably clarify why their messaging is so bad.

I don't think anyone is actually driving that bus anymore...
 
I don't put much stock in a poll now. Now only is the election a year away and much can happen, people are going to be less truthful in their responses.
 

Diablos

Member
I posit that a bunch of crazy people are driving it, but they don't know where they are going and are just fighting over the wheel.
Yeah. Their messaging is all over the place. You can really start to see how different factions of the party (i.e. Tea Party, 'moderates', and members that are more or less indifferent) are all contradicting each other.

What I do not understand is why Boehner, based on what we've been reading, apparently feels so compelled to "keep the fight going" for the sake of preventing a GOP implosion and losing his Speakership (and potentially his seat) sometime between now and next year. If we are to truly believe Boehner is merely bluffing to prevent a complete internal GOP meltdown, he should realize that whether he caves now or at the 11th hour, the Tea Party will be just as furious with him. I'd argue stringing them along and then jumping ship at the last second would probably piss them off even more. He's a fool.

The man needs a reality check: he's already fucked. He can play games with the Tea Party and then fold at the last second, fold now, let the nation default -- I can't see a way in any scenario where Boehner emerges from this looking good to his party or the rest of the nation. Well, maybe 40-50 GOP House Reps would like to see a default, but that's it.

I also don't understand how the GOP would even think nominating a new Speaker to the right of Boehner would work. They'd need Democrats to go along with it, and I don't see that happening. They'd probably just have to settle for someone like McCarthy or Cantor even.

--

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/08/john-boehner-clean-cr_n_4063669.html
He dodged a reporter's question at the end of the press conference on allowing a vote on a "clean" continuing resolution -- a bill to fund the government with no strings attached -- in order to end the shutdown. Boehner said on Sunday that the House of Representatives did not have the votes to pass such a measure, but vote tallies by The Huffington Post and other outlets show that the bill would likely pass.

"Doo, doo, doo," he hummed, walking out.
What a troll.
 

Crisco

Banned
The problem with the midterm elections now is that if Democrats gain seats, but don't take control of the chamber, we'll be in an even worse situation than we are now since the remaining GOP majority will be even more radicalized. I honestly wouldn't mind some minor concessions to take the debt ceiling out of the equation until 2016.
 
No way democrats fall for another super committee.

Boehner can't pass anything without democrats. The lack of Obamacare talk over the last few days has led to angry tea party members demanding a defund bill be brought up again. Chained CPI or a medical tax device cut aren't going to satisfy these people.

Mixing the shutdown and DL is going to guarantee a total tea party failure. They aren't going to get anything. Unless Obama ruins everything.
 

Diablos

Member
No way democrats fall for another super committee.

Boehner can't pass anything without democrats. The lack of Obamacare talk over the last few days has led to angry tea party members demanding a defund bill be brought up again. Chained CPI or a medical tax device cut aren't going to satisfy these people.

Mixing the shutdown and DL is going to guarantee a total tea party failure. They aren't going to get anything. Unless Obama ruins everything.
I tend to agree. The irrationality of 50 or so House Republicans and Boehner's creepy willingness to appease them is the only caveat that defies such logic.

Any sensible Republican (lol) needs to realize if they want to be a viable party again they need to figure out a way to keep the Tea Party in line, or lose the House and restructure their message so that it is not so very far to the right, and win on that message. I just can't see this being sustainable for them in the long term, save Gerrymandering allowing them to cheat their way into keeping a majority for as long as possible.

I'm with Aaron Strife and co., I really do think Dems will get back the House in 2014. If not 2014, they will start to make some serious gains and Hillary on the ticket will push them over the top in 2016.

Not to mention if the Tea Party goes batshit and challenges anyone who would vote for something like a clean CR/something lacking anything Obamacare related, they could have some "legitimate rape" type of moments in primaries where they would have won against their more establishment GOP incumbent challenger.

Who knows, three way races could even be possible at some point.
 

bananas

Banned
I'm with Aaron Strife and co., I really do think Dems will get back the House in 2014. If not 2014, they will start to make some serious gains and Hillary on the ticket will push them over the top in 2016.

Who are you and what have you done with Diablos?
 

pigeon

Banned
The problem with the midterm elections now is that if Democrats gain seats, but don't take control of the chamber, we'll be in an even worse situation than we are now since the remaining GOP majority will be even more radicalized. I honestly wouldn't mind some minor concessions to take the debt ceiling out of the equation until 2016.

Yeah, this is why Reid's bill is actually the McConnell Rule, which changes the debt ceiling from something that must be affirmatively raised to something that must be affirmatively prevented from raising. This raises the number of legislators who can visibly oppose it without destroying the world from 50% of one chamber to 66% of both, which basically accomplishes everybody's goals unless you actually want to destroy the world, in which case I don't want you to accomplish your goals.

If Reid can actually get this through the Senate (which seems surprisingly possible), it'll put a lot of pressure on Boehner to pass it and remove the debt ceiling forever from national politics.
 

Diablos

Member
Who are you and what have you done with Diablos?
Uh, I've maintained this position over the past couple weeks really, regardless of what happens.

The only thing that could fuck it up is if the country really does default -- it will have unanticipated consequences for all politicians in Washington, and would be so unprecedented that we wouldn't be able to get a feel for how either party bounces back from it for a very, very long time. Which is something worth worrying about since the GOP Tea Party caucus is so fucking insane that they defy anything that makes one come to a logical conclusion that Republican leadership will not allow a default.
 
Also, Sam Wang plays Aaron Strife with regards to the recent PPP poll:

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority/
Aaron Strife is a good game to play. never forget

Barring some catastrophic fuck up on Obama's part or by outside forces, the GOP has dug their own grave. They'll lose the House, forfeit some Senate seats, and Dems will run the table on governorships. People are tired of this shit.

50 pickups in the House is a little outrageous but if anyone can get voters to the polls it's OFA. But seeing as how the GOP is already losing its base (seniors, independents) that might not even matter.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I'm less optimistic that Dems take the House, due to redistricting. It's a midyear election and Dems tend to just not show up. But I think they narrow the gap and hold the Senate. Probably won't make things any easier.

I'm semi-optimistic six years of pure obstruction and craziness and perpetual manufactured crisis produces another Dem wave election in 2016, though, especially if Hillary is the candidate.
 

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife is a good game to play. never forget

Barring some catastrophic fuck up on Obama's part or by outside forces, the GOP has dug their own grave. They'll lose the House, forfeit some Senate seats, and Dems will run the table on governorships. People are tired of this shit.
Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.

I'm less optimistic that Dems take the House, due to redistricting. It's a midyear election and Dems tend to just not show up. But I think they narrow the gap and hold the Senate. Probably won't make things any easier.

I'm semi-optimistic six years of pure obstruction and craziness and perpetual manufactured crisis produces another Dem wave election in 2016, though, especially if Hillary is the candidate.
That's what I mean. 2014 will be hard, but at the very least I think Democrats will make some serious gains. Hillary will seal the deal. The longer this shutdown goes on the worse it makes GOPers look.
 
Dems won't overcome the gerrymandering. Ultimately I agree with Dave Weigel: I don't think the shutdown will matter to most people in October/November 2014. If the economy sucks less, republicans will lose seats; if the economy sucks more, democrats will lose seats.

And we don't know how Obamacare will play out. People are losing their healthcare plans (due to not getting them before the regulation cutoff date), businesses will continue to cut work hours/blame the law, and the prices won't be cheap enough for everyone. In short, there are gonna be plenty of people who get fucked and blame the law, right or wrong.

it's too early to call a landslide for either side. Will the democrat base actually show up? Will Obama's approval ratings rebound? Too early.
 
Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.
Corbett, Snyder, Scott, and LePage are all goners. Walker, Kasich, and Haley are also possible Dem gains but they're holding their own in the polls right now, so we'll see.

The only Dem loss I could see is Arkansas, but that doesn't matter since vetoes can be overridden by a majority of the legislature anyway.
 
Anyone got a link for the story about Harry Reid's bill in the Senate? I knew he was working to pass a clean debt ceiling raise, but I didn't know about the McConnell stuff. That seems very heartening.
 
Hasn't Snyder rebounded a bit though? Unfortunately I haven't run across a decent democrat challenger.

(Regardless I won't vote for Snyder again)
 

Diablos

Member
Dems won't overcome the gerrymandering. Ultimately I agree with Dave Weigel: I don't think the shutdown will matter to most people in October/November 2014. If the economy sucks less, republicans will lose seats; if the economy sucks more, democrats will lose seats.

And we don't know how Obamacare will play out. People are losing their healthcare plans (due to not getting them before the regulation cutoff date), businesses will continue to cut work hours/blame the law, and the prices won't be cheap enough for everyone. In short, there are gonna be plenty of people who get fucked and blame the law, right or wrong.

it's too early to call a landslide for either side. Will the democrat base actually show up? Will Obama's approval ratings rebound? Too early.
States like PA, CA, and NY have enough moderates left to tip the balance even in light of the extreme Gerrymandering.

Obamacare is more of an unknown right now, but I think once people start enrolling and see that it isn't so bad after all it will end up being a plus. Why do you think Republicans want it to fail so hard? If it truly was a horrible idea they'd let it run its course, and not have people like Cruz leading this almost holy crusade against a fucking law. They know once it is out of the bag and people start getting coverage next year that it will be extremely difficult to delay/defund it.
 

pigeon

Banned
Anyone got a link for the story about Harry Reid's bill in the Senate? I knew he was working to pass a clean debt ceiling raise, but I didn't know about the McConnell stuff. That seems very heartening.

http://www.salon.com/2013/10/07/gop...uster_debt_ceiling_harry_reid_makes_his_move/

salon said:
Today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made his move. He plans to introduce legislation to increase the debt limit, and dare Republicans to kill it with a filibuster.

But it won’t be a straightforward dollar increase or a time-limited borrowing authority extension. Reid will likely use a mechanism to allow the president to increase the debt limit on his own, subject to a veto-able resolution of disapproval by the Congress. In other words, the only way the debt limit won’t increase is if two-thirds of both the House and Senate feel it must be pulled back into the realm of legislative horsetrading — something that will never happen absent bipartisan agreement.
 

teiresias

Member
Yeah, this is why Reid's bill is actually the McConnell Rule, which changes the debt ceiling from something that must be affirmatively raised to something that must be affirmatively prevented from raising. This raises the number of legislators who can visibly oppose it without destroying the world from 50% of one chamber to 66% of both, which basically accomplishes everybody's goals unless you actually want to destroy the world, in which case I don't want you to accomplish your goals.

If Reid can actually get this through the Senate (which seems surprisingly possible), it'll put a lot of pressure on Boehner to pass it and remove the debt ceiling forever from national politics.

I would love for this to happen, and I would feel fine giving McConnell credit for it. Why didn't this happen back in 2011 when he originally proposed it, btw? I can't remember the particulars of back then.
 
I wonder how McConnell will vote!

I wonder if, under normal circumstances, senate republicans would filibuster this bill just to give the House more time....but due to Cruz they'll decide to say fuck it and jam the House/tea party.
 

Diablos

Member
McConnell was already becoming more unpopular before this fiasco, so it will be interesting to see how he votes this time around...
 
States like PA, CA, and NY have enough moderates left to tip the balance even in light of the extreme Gerrymandering.

Obamacare is more of an unknown right now, but I think once people start enrolling and see that it isn't so bad after all it will end up being a plus. Why do you think Republicans want it to fail so hard? If it truly was a horrible idea they'd let it run its course, and not have people like Cruz leading this almost holy crusade against a fucking law. They know once it is out of the bag and people start getting coverage next year that it will be extremely difficult to delay/defund it.
...what?
 

teiresias

Member
BTW, has the Senate voted yet on the bill for backpay for federal employees? I can't imagine it wouldn't pass since the President supports it and it passed unanimously in the House (how the Tea Partiers rationalize that vote with what they're doing and what they're saying is a mystery to me)..
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
BTW, has the Senate voted yet on the bill for backpay for federal employees? I can't imagine it wouldn't pass since the President supports it and it passed unanimously in the House (how the Tea Partiers rationalize that vote with what they're doing and what they're saying is a mystery to me)..

They're supposed to sometime this week. I don't see them denying back pay as Reid stated he supported it. As well as the President, as you said.
 
President Obama called House Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday morning to repeat that he wouldn't negotiate on a government spending bill or a debt-limit increase, according to Boehner's office.

The call took place at about 10:45 a.m. ET.

"The president called the speaker again today to reiterate that he won't negotiate on a government funding bill or debt limit increase," Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said in a statement.

Good
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Why won't Obama negotiate #letstalk

I thought boner wasn't even taking direct calls from Obama anymore after January. Ok.
 

KingK

Member
And also thinks the deficit should be reduced. So...
I didn't know that. That is unfortunate but at least he's not proposing destructive policy to address it.

Jon Stewart put Secretary Sebelius in the hot seat on the ACA rollout. He did a good job of highlighting how complex the current law is and used it as a driver for single payer. Good interview, worth a watch.

I really think Jon should have been asking her why they delayed the employer mandate instead of why they wouldn't delay the individual mandate.
 
Word. The Senate is looking really good for Democrats. Governors are more of a tossup really, but I'm just happy knowing Corbett is going to lose.

Corbett is going to get destroyed and it will be glorious.

Oh, and Diablos: took this one in central PA this morning-

1376608_10152001437942425_1416653779_n_zps4654fc76.jpg


I wonder what was in that chair?
 
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