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[Sharp]

Yeah, Spurs stole one in Miami. To me, since I think the teams are very evenly matched, it's all about probability at this point. If you assume each team has a 50% chance of winning the next game (which doesn't take HCA into account, but work with me here):

P(Spurs win it all) = P(Spurs in 4) + P(Spurs in 5) + P(Spurs in 6) + P(Spurs in 7)

P(Spurs in 4) = 0
P(Spurs in 5) = P(Spurs win next 2 games) = C(2,2) * 0.5^2 = 2! / (2!0!) * 0.25 = 0.25
P(Spurs in 6) = P(Spurs win exactly 1 of next 2) * P(Spurs win game 6) = C(2,1) * 0.5^2 * 0.5 = 2! / (1!1!) * 0.25 * 0.5 = 0.25
P(Spurs in 7) = P(Spurs win exactly 1 of next 3) * P(Spurs win game 7) = C(3,1) * 0.5^3 * 0.5 = 3! / (2!1!) * 0.125 * 0.5 = 0.1875

P(Spurs win it all) = 0 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.1875 = 0.6875

So as of right now, a very conservative estimate would be that the Spurs have a 68.75% chance of winning it all if the teams are evenly matched.

If we take HCA into account, so order matters (HCA usually confers about a 5% advantage in basketball, I think--some statshead back me up on this?):
P(Spurs in 4) = 0
P(Spurs in 5) = P(Spurs win next 2 games at home) = C(2, 2) * 0.55^2 = 0.3025
P(Spurs in 6) = P(Spurs win exactly 1 of 2 games at home) * P(Spurs win game 6 on the road) = C(2,1) * 0.55 * (1 - 0.55) * (1 - 0.55) = 0.22275
P(Spurs in 7) = (P(Spurs win exactly 1 of 2 games at home) * P(Spurs lose game 6 on the road) + P(Spurs lose next 2 games at home) * P(Spurs win game 6 on the road)) * P(Spurs win game 7 on the road) = (C(2,1) * 0.55 * (1 - 0.55) * 0.55 + C(2,0) * (1 - 0.55)^2 * (1 - 0.55)) * (1 - 0.55) = 0.16351875

P(Spurs win, taking HCA into account) = 0 + 0.3025 + 0.22275 + 0.16351875 = 0.68876875

So taking HCA into account the Spurs have basically the same chance of winning it all--around a 68.88% chance--as if we pretended HCA didn't exist. This makes sense--stealing one in Miami just evens the playing field.

(I feel dirty. Fuck advanced stats).

 

[Ken Masters]

again with this Spurs "stole" GM1



can't wait for the Spurs "stole" the championship talk next week

 

[Sharp]

again with this Spurs "stole" GM1



can't wait for the Spurs "stole" the championship talk next week

Dude I literally just wrote an entire post that I am now regretting based on the assumption that the teams are evenly matched and the Heat's only advantage was HCA, who are you yelling at

 

[captmcblack]

Get this sabermetrics out of here; this game is played, not derivated!

Seriously though, it's only a 2-1 lead and it's the motherfucking Lebron James/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh HEAT. Only when they are destroyed should we be talking about the possibility of them losing. They've been rope-a-doping teams all year. Spurs need to go for the jugular in GM 4 to ensure that MIA actually feels some pressure.

 

[iamshadowlark]

again with this Spurs "stole" GM1



can't wait for the Spurs "stole" the championship talk next week

Yes when you win a close game on the road its called a "steal". Welcome to NBA playoff basketball.

 

[Ken Masters]

Dude I literally just wrote an entire post that I am now regretting based on the assumption that the teams are evenly matched and the Heat's only advantage was HCA, who are you yelling at

I didn't realize I was yelling at anyone

Yes when you win a close game on the road its called a "steal". Welcome to NBA playoff basketball.

when a superior team and the best road team in the NBA wins a road game, it isn't a "steal", welcome to basketball knowledge

 

[iamshadowlark]

I didn't realize I was yelling at anyone





when a superior team and the best road team in the NBA wins a road game, it isn't a "steal", welcome to basketball knowledge

No, dude just no. Its been this way for ages.

 

[KingKong]

Get this sabermetrics out of here; this game is played, not derivated!

Seriously though, it's only a 2-1 lead and it's the motherfucking Lebron James/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh HEAT. Only when they are destroyed should we be talking about the possibility of them losing. They've been rope-a-doping teams all year. Spurs need to go for the jugular in GM 4 to ensure that MIA actually feels some pressure.

nah time to break them up now. Trade Bosh and Wade for CP3 and Dwight before its too late

 

[bionic77]

Get this sabermetrics out of here; this game is played, not derivated!

Seriously though, it's only a 2-1 lead and it's the motherfucking Lebron James/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh HEAT. Only when they are destroyed should we be talking about the possibility of them losing. They've been rope-a-doping teams all year. Spurs need to go for the jugular in GM 4 to ensure that MIA actually feels some pressure.

Its over if the Spurs win game 4.

The Heat are going to come out and give it everything they have. LeBron might even take some of those wide open midrange jumpers that the Spurs are daring him to take, that is how desperate they are!

 

[commish]

when a superior team and the best road team in the NBA wins a road game, it isn't a "steal", welcome to basketball knowledge

Drop dat knowledge, son! School is in session.

 

[Ken Masters]

No, dude just no. Its been this way for ages.

ESPN and their army of idiots call it a steal, those who know how good the Spurs are don't call it a steal. Simple as that. If Miami won in SA the media (who don't watch the Spurs all season) would not being calling it a steal. By your logic the Heat STOLE GMS 3 and 4 in Milwaukee in round 1

 

[SamuraiX-]

Heat will still win this series

Good night, sweet prince.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Drop dat knowledge, son! School is in session.

Lol. A team with the worse record, won one quarter after losing most the game on the road, but it isn't a steal. Even by his dumbfuck logic it makes no sense.

ESPN and their army of idiots call it a steal, those who know how good the Spurs are don't call it a steal. Simple as that. If Miami won in SA the media (who don't watch the Spurs all season) would not being calling it a steal. By your logic the Heat STOLE GMS 3 and 4 in Milwaukee in round 1

Yeah we did. Just like we stole game 2 in OKC. Learn basketball.

 

[Vestal]

I didn't realize I was yelling at anyone





when a superior team and the best road team in the NBA wins a road game, it isn't a "steal", welcome to basketball knowledge

Where was that superior team in Game 2?! Playing the Defending NBA Champions, team with the 2nd longest winning streak in league history, the best record in the NBA, and the MVP.. YES ITS STEALING A GAME.

Seriously WTF is this?! This is as even a series as its going to get if you go by how the quarters have been split.

In all honesty we only have 1 game to look at, in regards to how this series will be and its Game 1. Judging by that it will be a sesaw battle unless either team blows the other out in Game 4.

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

Yes when you win a close game on the road its called a "steal". Welcome to NBA playoff basketball.

I agree. The Spurs stole one in Miami and now the Spurs can steal one in SA. The Heat had a blow out at home and now the Spurs had one last night. All it will take is for Miami to win one out of the next two games and they will have regained home court advantage. It's all quite simple.

 

[bionic77]

I wouldn't call game one a steal. The Spurs were on the Heats heels all game and you could just see Miami wearing down as the game went along. That victory was pretty predictable halfway through the 3rd quarter.

I hope we get more game ones. The first game was an instant classic. The next two games have been blowouts led by unreal 3 point shooting from scrubs.

 

[Ken Masters]

Lol. A team with the worse record, won one quarter after losing most the game on the road, but it isn't a steal. Even by his dumbfuck logic it makes no sense.

so you're now resorting to 3rd grade personal attacks, glad to see your true colors and lack of intelligence on full display


you say the Spurs have a worse record, true, any idiot can look at the standings and see that. But did you know the Spurs had the best record in the NBA much of the season and little known players like Parker missed near a month of games, Manu missed 20 games, and Leonard (who you are getting to know quite well in these finals) missed weeks of playing time.... and STILL won 58 games


but you're knowledge of basketball is restricted to sports center highlights and Samsung commercials, leave the intelligent debate for others

 

[ph33nix]

gotta love the guy who cries "nobody cared about us during the season!" when he also didn't post during the season and is suddenly claiming to be an intelligent poster

 

[CrazyDogg77]

I agree. The Spurs stole one in Miami and now the Spurs can steal one in SA. The Heat had a blow out at home and now the Spurs had one last night. All it will take is for Miami to win one out of the next two games and they will have regained home court advantage. It's all quite simple.

Wait you mean Miami can steal one right?

 

[commish]

so you're now resorting to 3rd grade personal attacks, glad to see your true colors and lack of intelligence on full display


you say the Spurs have a worse record, true, any idiot can look at the standings and see that. But did you know the Spurs had the best record in the NBA much of the season and little known players like Parker missed near a month of games, Manu missed 20 games, and Leonard (who you are getting to know quite well in these finals) missed weeks of playing time.... and STILL won 58 games


but you're knowledge of basketball is restricted to sports center highlights and Samsung commercials, leave the intelligent debate for others

I can't believe you're rising to this and responding.

 

[Ken Masters]

gotta love the guy who cries "nobody cared about us during the season!" when he also didn't post during the season and is suddenly claiming to be an intelligent poster

so to you intelligence about basketball is how much I decide to post in this thread (as if this thread is filled with NBA coaches, scouts and GMs), and I bet you clowns also think you also have some superiority because you have basketball avatars HHAHAA


oh sweet sweet irony

 

[Cloudy]

The only thing more disappointing than LBJ's play so far is the narrative that is going to occur if the Spurs don't win the series after having the 2-1 lead following the delivery of a sound thumping like last night's game.

Yep, it was incredible how "the block" overshadowed how terrible Bron looked for 3qtrs in game 2 lol

 

[Ken Masters]

Yep, it was incredible how "the block" overshadowed how terrible Bron looked for 3qtrs in game 2 lol

"the block" on no-hops Splitter when the game was already over, just love how the media tried so desperately to make Lebron a hero that game

 

[ph33nix]

so to you intelligence about basketball is how much I decide to post in this thread (as if this thread is filled with NBA coaches, scouts and GMs), and I bet you clowns also think you also have some superiority because you have basketball avatars HHAHAA


oh sweet sweet irony

So far your "analysis" has consisted of THE SPURS HAVE DOMINATED THIS SERIES and the other half of it has been whining about how no one watches the Spurs and LeBron attention.

But hey, keep bringing that deep insight.

And actually, you're the only one who has been claiming superiority, not us. So not sure where you got that from. Quit whining about the lack of attention when you suddenly decide now is the time for you to give it to them here.

 

[Emwitus]

(I feel dirty. Fuck advanced stats).

what a bunch of nonesense

 

[Fjordson]

If Miami comes back to smash SA in game 4 I'm going to be pissed. Every time I think someone has them reeling they come back and win big. Schizophrenic motha fuckas.

One good thing for SA is that the last two games have been basically 2-3 quarters at most for their big 3. Last two games had lots of garbage time so hopefully they'll be well rested for 4.

 

[Ken Masters]

So far your "analysis" has consisted of THE SPURS HAVE DOMINATED THIS SERIES and the other half of it has been whining about how no one watches the Spurs and LeBron attention..

if that's all that you could dissect from my posts you're just exposing yourself even more


keep it up buddy

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

what a bunch of nonesense

I don't see how probability or the assumption that these teams are evenly matched is nonsense.

 

[Vestal]

so to you intelligence about basketball is how much I decide to post in this thread (as if this thread is filled with NBA coaches, scouts and GMs), and I bet you clowns also think you also have some superiority because you have basketball avatars HHAHAA


oh sweet sweet irony

So what will be your Basketball Knowledge excuse when Miami wins the series against "THE SUPERIOR" team?

Don't come in here with your "holier than thou" attitude and expect any sort of respect from people here. Most of the people here live and breath basketball. Looking at your post history here, your first post in an NBA thread was during the ECF, and obviously you are totally against the Heat and for Spurs..


Please share some of your great Basketball Knowledge. Explain to us oh great one, what happens when Lebron starts hitting that 15-18foot jumper the spurs are giving him. What kind of adjustment would the spurs need to make?

 

[ph33nix]

if that's all that you could dissect from my posts you're just exposing yourself even more


keep it up buddy

Sure thing.

Spurs have outplayed the heat the entire series except the last 1.5 quarters of GM 2

But heat will win because lebron? Ok

Why do the Spurs have to win 3 straight times?

They're only the best road team in basketball and already won in Miami


But lebron right?

Lebron is going to have to have great jump shooting nights for him to have monster games agains the Spurs


that's a scary thought for Heat fans and the media who so badly want the Spurs to lose LMFAO

Just saying the Spurs are a really bad matchup for the Heat and this series has gone as expected by those who actually watch Spurs games, which isn't many.



The Heat also had a very low turnover count that game, so it was a wash

again with this Spurs "stole" GM1



can't wait for the Spurs "stole" the championship talk next week

ESPN and their army of idiots call it a steal, those who know how good the Spurs are don't call it a steal. Simple as that. If Miami won in SA the media (who don't watch the Spurs all season) would not being calling it a steal. By your logic the Heat STOLE GMS 3 and 4 in Milwaukee in round 1

 

[AirBrian]

That was probably the most entertaining Finals blowout since Celtics-Lakers Game 7 in '08.

Also, T-Mac two wins away!

 

[Diprosalic]

i won't be able to watch game 5 but i don't want this to go 6 or 7.


shit.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Almost everytime a favored home team loses, it's called a steal. It has nothing to do with trying to discredit the away team or whatever the fuck this ken masters clown is crying about. Which part is hard to understand?

 

[Ken Masters]

So what will be your Basketball Knowledge excuse when Miami wins the series against "THE SUPERIOR" team?

Don't come in here with your "holier than thou" attitude and expect any sort of respect from people here. Most of the people here live and breath basketball. Looking at your post history here, your first post in an NBA thread was during the ECF, and obviously you are totally against the Heat and for Spurs..


Please share some of your great Basketball Knowledge. Explain to us oh great one, what happens when Lebron starts hitting that 15-18foot jumper the spurs are giving him. What kind of adjustment would the spurs need to make?

If Miami wins the series I will admit that my analysis was flat out wrong


and this idea in this thread from a few posters that there aren't other GAF posters who live and breathe basketball and decide NOT to post in the NBA threads is ignorant beyond comprehension. I post on other forums when it comes to basketball and everything else is GAF, it's the NBA Finals so I decide to post on GAF about basketball.... not that hard to imagine really

Sure thing.

but you chose not quote my post

What seeprates you and I is that you only look at final box score and call it day.
GM1 Spurs win a close game, but mainly because Spurs missed so many open 3s.
GM2 game was close till end of 3rd, Spurs were even up by 5 in the 3rd but absolutely collapsed and got blown out
GM3 Spurs dominate the entire game, Spurs should have been up by 15 at half but kept Miami in the game with stupid turnovers

this is truly comedy

 

[Psychological Intellect]

Kobe

 

[ph33nix]

but you chose not quote my post




this is truly comedy

You're right, 6 out of 7 whining posts is truly comedy.

Thanks for proving my point.

 

[commish]

and this idea in this thread from a few posters that there aren't other GAF posters who live and breathe basketball and decide NOT to post in the NBA threads is ignorant beyond comprehension. I post on other forums when it comes to basketball and everything else is GAF, it's the NBA Finals so I decide to post on GAF about basketball.... not that hard to imagine really

If the Spurs were knocked out in the first round, would you be in here talking about the finals?

 

[Ken Masters]

You're right, 6 out of 7 whining posts is truly comedy.

Thanks for proving my point.

you're boring me now

If the Spurs were knocked out in the first round, would you be in here talking about the finals?

NBA finals and love basketball, yes I would be posting here. just save my summer league, pre season, regular season, early post season talk for other boards

 

[AirBrian]

Kobe

All we need is more fashion analysis and we're back to normal!

 

[ph33nix]

you're boring me now



NBA finals and love basketball, yes I would be posting here. just save my summer league, pre season, regular season, early post season talk for other boards

So would you say that you've always posted in the NBA Finals threads here?

 

[Fjordson]

Kobe

Top 10 maybe, but not top 5. That's as high as I'll go!

 

[Ken Masters]

So would you say that you've always posted in the NBA Finals threads here?

no, I can't really remember posting much in the NBA GAF threads, besides one or two posts hear and there spanning many months. But I decided to this finals because I felt like it


didn't realize I needed permission to post in NBA threads

 

[commish]

no, I can't really remember posting much in the NBA GAF threads, besides one or two posts hear and there spanning many months. But I decided to this finals because I felt like it


didn't realize I needed permission to post in NBA threads

What happens is that, every year, when a particular team does well in the playoffs, their fans come out of the woodwork and start posting nonsense here. Laker fans are the worst at this. Well, they are the worst at everything in life. But when these "random" people start posting here only because of their team's success, such bandwagon posters can annoy some regulars. This has been been true for... oh... I don't know... the last 9 years, at least. Spurs fans such as you and I just need to rise above.

 

[Zeke]

wtf is going on in here lol

Spoiler

GO SPURS GO

 

[Nori Chan]

Kobe

good dressing coach

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

What is this discussion even about?

 

[commish]

What is this discussion even about?

Chris Bosh.

If the Heat signed Amare instead, they'd be raising their third banner this year.

 

[Ken Masters]

What happens is that, every year, when a particular team does well in the playoffs, their fans come out of the woodwork and start posting nonsense here. Laker fans are the worst at this. Well, they are the worst at everything in life. But when these "random" people start posting here only because of their team's success, such bandwagon posters can annoy some regulars. This has been been true for... oh... I don't know... the last 9 years, at least. Spurs fans such as you and I just need to rise above.

if you're a Spurs fan you must also be used to having higher level of basketball IQ then those around you

 

[ph33nix]

What happens is that, every year, when a particular team does well in the playoffs, their fans come out of the woodwork and start posting nonsense here. Laker fans are the worst at this. Well, they are the worst at everything in life. But when these "random" people start posting here only because of their team's success, such bandwagon posters can annoy some regulars. This has been been true for... oh... I don't know... the last 9 years, at least. Spurs fans such as you and I just need to rise above.

I hope Jason Kidd becomes the coach of the Suns one day.

 

[StickSoldier]

Man, so like, if the Heat lose this Finals, do they just keep the same team together? It seems like the Pacers are going to be on their tail next year and the Spurs are going to be just as good, plus Westbrook will be back and they got Lamb plus the 13th pick. Not to mention Dallas, who I believe will be the overall favorite, will have both Dwight and CP3 join the team. Looking pretty scary.