You need to be, because understanding what changed this cycle relative to 2012 and 2008 is really important.
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Analysis: Poor turnout not responsible for Trump's victory.
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Kid Kamikaze10
Member
Man, I have never seen a voter base so coddled to like the so called "WWC" (I'd say White middle class).
Why does nobody ask why black voters behave the way they do? Or other demographics?
Maybe realize that they have a much more realistic look at politics?
Or, I don't know, LOOK AT FUCKING VOTER SUPRESSION?
Why does nobody ask why black voters behave the way they do? Or other demographics?
Maybe realize that they have a much more realistic look at politics?
Or, I don't know, LOOK AT FUCKING VOTER SUPRESSION?
Um no, trump got more votes than Romney.
SolarPowered
Member
Me neither, but I've resigned myself to the fact that his hardcore supporters are absolutely a people who will always be lost to us. The best we can hope for is that the 5-10 million moderates and former obama voters come to their senses the more Trump's facade crumbles. I used to think it was just maybe ten million or so true "deplorables", but the scary truth is that we're probably looking at multiples of that amount in reality. That is a scary realization to arrive at.
"He tells it like it is"
What some desperate, easily fooled and racist voters will wheel out when pushed into a corner. Many are already under a spell concocted by big corporate money and ideological maniacs and Trump just tells them that the world is exactly what they've been brainwashed to believe. You can't underestimate how powerful that sense of validation can be for voters.
She was one hundred percent correct. What she (and I along with many others) didn't realize was just how insane the electoral college really is. It didn't hit me until this election when I realized that 100% voter turnout in New York and California still would have amounted to a fart in the wind had all other turnouts in Trump states stayed the same. The system can literally tell a candidate with 5 to 10 million more votes to take a hike with the right wins in the right places. That is literally insane. It spits right in the face of Democracy, it's wife, it's children and damn near anyone or anything else important to it.So surprising that this turned into Sanders Vs. Clinton yet again....
Anyway, it's fair to say that Trump has tons of charisma and has shown an ability to seize upon on a reliable 30-35% base as an absolute floor, no matter what he does. That's impressive and scary.
I don't think anyone doubts that HRC was a smarter, more capable candidate for POTUS, but to put it simply, she got outworked and played to her diverse base believing that in 2016, we were enough to overcome the idiotic masses. Unfortunately, she was almost right.
Because while that worked in a big picture sense (winning the popular vote decisively) not actually doing that hard work, going to those afflicted places in the rust belt that she took for granted, did them/us in.
Which is unfortunate, because in the end, no matter how many different hats she's worn as a supposed Arkansan/NY-bred Pol, she's ultimately born and raised in the Midwest and shares those personal sensibilities with those who didn't vote for her. Which is a real shame because if she/her campaign made an attempt to go to those places, be herself and connect (much like she did when she faced off against Obama in 08), she'd have been President right now.
insanity
I think the racism and sexism stuff is overblown when trying to work out why Trump won. It's too simplistic. In my eyes, his ability to convince working-class white people in Rust Belt states that he could bring jobs and some level of prosperity back to the counties is the main reason he won. Many didn't agree with everything he said but were willing to take a chance.
Trump and Bernie created a lot of energy around their campaigns thanks to their anti-establishment ideology, and Hillary couldn't compete on message or enthusiasm.
I think that Hillary's campaign was a tad complacent at times, and Trump did a good job of getting out to the swing states and portraying himself as the working-class candidate.
The Comey and the email stuff probably didn't help but I think Trump won because he tapped into the frustration of the working-class and the Dems underestimated the amount of dissatisfaction in the electorate.
Trump and Bernie created a lot of energy around their campaigns thanks to their anti-establishment ideology, and Hillary couldn't compete on message or enthusiasm.
I think that Hillary's campaign was a tad complacent at times, and Trump did a good job of getting out to the swing states and portraying himself as the working-class candidate.
The Comey and the email stuff probably didn't help but I think Trump won because he tapped into the frustration of the working-class and the Dems underestimated the amount of dissatisfaction in the electorate.
It's only going to get worse too as the rural areas deplete in population.
The data we have says you're wrong. People who voted on the economy as their primary issue voted for Clinton. People who said moneyed interests had too much power... voted for Clinton. The people who were voting for Trump weren't voting on economic axes (and the author of the "The Nation" article on this is someone for whom this came as an unpleasant revelation.)
A lot of Dem voters and politicians refuse to believe their party was in any way responsible for Trump's victory.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
These fairly tales had a pretty large and visible core of racism and xenophobia.
poppedcollar69
Member
Hold up.
You said Obama won votes from racist white people, in spite of his skin color, cause he was seen as 'one of the good ones'.
However, Trump and the gop demonized the man and everything he did.
This played well with the people Trump and the gop were going after.
If it is true that Obama won those votes because he was 'one of the good ones', then why was demonizing him later so effective?
Like, I get that the average voter hasn't proven themselves to be particularly rational, but even so your narrative here seems tenuous.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yeah, if the numbers are showing that 1 out of 4 white men flipped from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, what that says to me is that when faced with the possibility of voting for the competent woman or the charismatic man that looks and sounds like them, they went with the man.
A large amount of the Post-Game regarding Hillary tends to minimize the quarter-century of constant, ingrained sexism weaponized against her for so long many voters don't even recognize it's presence anymore, and simply dismiss the suggestion it has a serious part to play out of hand.
A lot of guys will, if presented with a man and a woman both telling you they are smart and qualified to do a thing, believe the man is speaking more truthfully.
It seems absolutely plausible that some of these white men figured it was worth rolling the dice on their privileged mirror image instead.
Because Obama is super-charismatic and could get those voted flipped based on being Barack Obama. Cognitive dissonance is real.
Fair critique. People who voted for Trump also voted for a man who literally admitted on tape to committing sexual assault many, many times. They voted affirmatively for normalizing and empowering rape culture and enshrining misogyny.
teruterubozu
Member
The self-flagellations shall continue! Everyone grab a whip if you haven't already!
We're seeing a surge of racist far right populism across the western world. The US hasn't been immune to it.
Racist people voted for Obama because he literally told them that racism in America was over and their racist beliefs were okay.
When it turned out that voting in Obama just made people more interested in achieving equality, they decided to vote for a white supremacist instead.
It's not complicated!
Camper Van Beethoven
Banned
I guess they reelected him just for fun.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Do you really think there weren't racists who voted for Obama simply because he seemed like the better choice for president all things told?
There are pragmatic racists too
Obama's message on racism never changed. Hillary's was different than his.
Obama never said "people really should quit being racist." He said that America was past racism.
Hillary specifically said "no, actually racism is a clear and present problem and people who are racist are bad and should check themselves."
rokkerkory
Member
Gerrymandering too
We keep seeing things like BLM, Colin Kaepernick, the Florida prosecutor cause white people to explode in rage. It's not an accident, it's not just on the internet, and it's been escalating.
Yet so many are eager to deny it.
Because the WWC is the largest demographic and that wins elections? You can convince all black voters and still lose an election.
I mean I guess it's been another 24 hours so it was time for another thread about how white working-class voters aren't responsible for their choice to vote for a white supremacist and serial sexual offender because they have no moral agency and suggesting that they are adults and should be held responsible for their actions is apparently condescending to them, Bernie 2020
CrocMother
Banned
This is such a mind blowingly stupid post given the 2016 election
I saw many instances of this when reading or watching interviews of former Obama supporters in the rust belt. Lots of comments of "I'm not racist I just think woman are supposed to raise the kids and be in the kitchen". "Woman aren't equipped to run a country"
capitalCORN
Member
Yup. The honeypot works always.
Camper Van Beethoven
Banned
You're creating a narrative to explain something, rather than being logical. Do people like the ones you described exist? Probably. Trying to say everyone that voted for Obama and then Trump falls in to that catagory is lazy. Things aren't as simple as "those white people that vote for the party I don't like are all racist".
I don't get the whole game of writing off the racism explanation when the shift we see was just among white voters specifically. What makes these white folks any more "economically anxious" or rapt with Trump's "charisma" or open to any promise of change than say the folks in Gary, Indiana? Why was the divide primarily urban/rural rather than by income?
Now if you want to argue that dire economic straits or marginalization can push people to BE more racist, that is a different story.
Now if you want to argue that dire economic straits or marginalization can push people to BE more racist, that is a different story.
Trump is a white supremacist.
People who voted for him voted for a white supremacist.
That is bad.
It actually is pretty much that simple.
It's the people who want to argue that they should bear no moral animus for that choice that have to engage in embarrassing logical chains like "people who voted for Obama can't possibly be racist."
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Is this supposed to mean something
David H Wong
Banned
Anyone who looks at an American election and says "It's not complicated!" is being very silly. Trump won because of economic anxiety and racism and sexism and fears of terrorism and hatred of the Clintons and fears of black crime and anti-police violence and voter suppression and Wikileaks and Hillary being unlikable and loss of manufacturing jobs and just plain desire for change.
Within the leftist bubble it's comfortable to dismiss and mock everyone else's genuine concerns about employment, healthcare and everything else and just smear them all as racist monsters. That's the big, ugly flaw in leftist thinking - that everyone is stupid/amoral except you. Meanwhile:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/na...ide-in-american-death/?utm_term=.7eaf53eef1c0
But they deserve it, right? Hell, if anything death is too good for them. To even glance at their problems and figure out why they're dying is enabling racism! To examine why people in those situations tend to turn to racism and xenophobia is equally wrong - who cares why racists are racists? It's better to just keep ignoring them, and maybe they'll go away.
CrocMother
Banned
You're saying that racists looked past their views for the sake of "pragmatism" and voted for the black man (which makes very little sense but whatever), but when given a choice between two WHITE people, threw this pragmatism out the window and voted for the one who was clearly the lesser candidate.
Race and xenophobia obviously played a role in this election, there's no denying that. My issue is that people in this thread are complaining about downplaying racism when they are the ones downplaying what was clearly a huge issue, sexism.
I agree on the first three sentences, but I don't think it's that simple. I don't think everyone who voted for trump voted based on a platform of white supremacy. They voted for their own concerns over those of others, and many were probably single issue voters.
Now, I think it's really dumb to take what trump was promising seriously in terms of jobs and draining the swamp, but I don't think it's as simple as you describe even though what you described is the end result. I think there is value in distinguishing voters who voted for trump explicitly or implicitly due to white supremacy (and I believe both of those groups exist) from those who voted for him out of their own concerns that don't involve race (even though in reality those affect race). We can win over voters who think their jobs are going away or that they're paying too much for health care, but we can't win over voters who think black people are subhuman. To treat those groups as equal is reductive.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Focusing on race in a thread on an article that focuses on shifts in white working class voting isn't downplaying sexism. We've had threads on that and there will be more. You, fellow member, are welcome to start a thread focusing on the sexism aspect, which was also a factor, if you'd like.
Think about that before calling a post addressing the 2012 election "mind blowingly stupid."
jack_package_200
Banned
Or if he focused on having a strong early start and focused his resources on that than focus on "retroactive momentum".
Clinton buried him early.
Aztechnology
Member
So not much different than normal. Which is fucking terrible turnout especially amongst youth and minority voters. So no. I'm not going to give people free pass to say, "look it wasn't our faults, it didn't matter if I voted". You shirked your Civic duty to shape our country as you want it, I get to be vindictive to both Republican voters who are resentful and those who decided voting wasn't worth their time. It's why I get really angry at my friends who don't vote. Because they're happy letting old white people decide how our country is shaped.
When something like only 55% of voting eligible people turn out. 45% have failed to participate in the Democratic process. If you complain, but do nothing to participate in changing the outcome whether voting or otherwise I find it hard to have sympathy for you.
When something like only 55% of voting eligible people turn out. 45% have failed to participate in the Democratic process. If you complain, but do nothing to participate in changing the outcome whether voting or otherwise I find it hard to have sympathy for you.
akidnamededdy
Banned
Hahahahha
Yes, this was Hillary's problem
She was TOO up-front and relatable.
CrocMother
Banned
It's my guess that a big reason those 1/4 of white working class voters switched from Obama to Trump was because they wouldn't vote for a woman. Hilary's shoddy campaign certainly did her no favors. I'm not sure what you're trying to bring to this thread by suggesting race was a factor for people who had previously voted for a black man instead of Mitt Romney. Like, maybe I just don't get it.
It just seems like you're deflecting from the obvious, which is that it's less likely that people vote for a woman than a man (regardless of skin color).
capitalCORN
Member
"Emails" was a thinly veiled allusion for periods for a menopausal woman. "She can't be trusted."
I'm not really sure who you're responding to here. I don't think it's me. I've been posting since 2012 about the need to help working-class people in the post-manufacturing economy. That's why I voted for the candidate that had policy proposals to help them! Unfortunately she didn't win.
I just don't think it's worthwhile to pretend that they're racists because of economic factors. That's a fiction created by white moderates who don't want to admit the moral culpability of their friends and relatives. White supremacy is not some crazy new thing they just invented in the 80s. It's in the Constitution.
Our moral responsibility to help people in need should be matched by our moral responsibility to condemn white supremacy. If people who considered themselves progressives had done this in the first place instead of avoiding difficult discussions because "it's just politics," maybe Trump wouldn't have won.
I mean her campaign actively sought to prop up Trump.
https://www.salon.com/2016/11/09/th...ed-donald-trump-with-its-pied-piper-strategy/
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