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[Aquamarine]

Wow. TRU has had quite the fall from grace. I wonder what their highest percentage contribution ever was. They seemed to be the #1 retail store for video games once upon a time.

You are indeed correct. Here is a demonstration of how Toys R Us's marketshare has eroded throughout the generations:


NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 6th gen (approx. 2001):

1) Wal-Mart - 20%
2) Toys R Us - 14%
3) Best Buy - 11%
4) Babbage's / GameStop - 11%
5) Electronic Boutique - 10%
6) Target - 7%


NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 7th gen (approx. 2007):

1) GameStop - 25%
2) Wal-Mart - 24%
3) Best Buy - 14%
4) Target - 14%
5) Toys R Us - 4%
6) Circuit City - 3%


NPD Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 8th-gen (approx. 2014):

1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%

Now they're pretty irrelevant as far as major mass-market retailers go.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Sounds reasonable to me. Didn't make sense to tank almost a month of sales.

This kinect drop is all over my Yahoo homepage already so I think lots of people will know.

That would actually be a smart strategy.They were gonna lose May regardless, but now they increase their chance of winning June with the price drop and the timeshifted purchases.

That would definitely be a superior move in terms of manipulating PR and demonstrating Xbox One momentum to shareholders.

Yes I have a feeling MS takes the NPD losses far more personally then one might think of corporate execs. Or at the very least value the US market as their number one priority.

The late February deals, TF bundle, subsequent $50 price cut on TF bundle, Forza being included in the normal SKUs and all those other retailer deals speak to a serious effort by MS to offer better value without hitting the $400 price point

It will be very worrisome for MS management if they lose June by any significant amount

 

[mrklaw]

I'm curious if MS purposefully announced the price drop coming June 9th a couple weeks early to try and move potential May sales into June and possibly go from a real terrible month [may] into possibly winning June against the PS4 and ending what would likely be the 5 month winning streak

A sort of coup to change the XB1 narrative of stagnation and slow growth into a more relevant competitor

If they get any pickup of preorders this month, will they count for May NPD, or are they only counted when the sale is made in June?


Having said that, are the summer months that important? Won't it be fairly lacklustre across the board?

 

[Aquamarine]

If they get any pickup of preorders this month, will they count for May NPD, or are they only counted when the sale is made in June?


Having said that, are the summer months that important? Won't it be fairly lacklustre across the board?

NPD tallies a sale when the money is actually transferred for a product.

So no, a rise in $399 SKU preorders for May won't lead to a higher NPD total.

 

[SwiftDeath]

If they get any pickup of preorders this month, will they count for May NPD, or are they only counted when the sale is made in June?

Actual sale counts to NPD numbers, not pre-orders. Thus pre-orders made in May will count to June when they ship or are picked up

Having said that, are the summer months that important? Won't it be fairly lacklustre across the board?

Summer months are known for lackluster sales. In my mind it would be the perfect time to try and beat the lead console by offering a new value proposition while limiting your risk of losing once again for the month. Seems a smart play by me assuming MS is hellbent on winning a NPD this year. Granted I think they now have a good shot at the holidays depending

 

[prag16]

I'm also in the 170K boat.

Could they have dipped below 100K?

I went with 145k, and in light of this news, yeah, that too sounds high. Below 100k though. If so I will say wow.

 

[Delusibeta]

Uh, can I revise my Xbone figure down? By, like, quite a bit? Uh.

 

[Tigersuperman]

Only prediction is that xbox will beat ps4 due to price cuts and titanfall. Some of the questionable minded people here thought gc and price cuts toward the END OF MARCH was supposed to win the xone march. Huh?

 

[HI. BILLY MAYS HERE]

Only prediction is that xbox will beat ps4 due to price cuts and titanfall. Some of the questionable minded people here thought gc and price cuts toward the END OF MARCH was supposed to win the xone march. Huh?

Checks profile

Does Marketing for MS

So your post sounds about right

 

[jayu26]

Only prediction is that xbox will beat ps4 due to price cuts and titanfall. Some of the questionable minded people here thought gc and price cuts toward the END OF MARCH was supposed to win the xone march. Huh?

Except it wasn't just END OF MARCH...

 

[SwiftDeath]

Uh, can I revise my Xbone figure down? By, like, quite a bit? Uh.

I'm afraid not my friend. I will just have to accept my own XB1 figures as well

Well it's not like I wanted to place this month either :\

 

[TomShoe]

Only prediction is that xbox will beat ps4 due to price cuts and titanfall. Some of the questionable minded people here thought gc and price cuts toward the END OF MARCH was supposed to win the xone march. Huh?

Do you want to make an avatar bet? Because that's one bet you're going to lose.

Probably too late for this, but what the hell.

[360] 85K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 58K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 210K
[PSV] 10K

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 110K
[PS3] 55K
[WIU] 65K
[360] 70K
[3DS] 100K
[PSV] 8K

For my own amusement

 

[Tigersuperman]

Except it wasn't just END OF MARCH...

Most of the bigger price cut deals were all after the 20th and were all going at the same time around the 25th. So yes. tf itself was near middle.

 

[jayu26]

Most of the bigger price cut deals were all after the 20th and were all going at the same time around the 25th. So yes. tf itself was near middle.

If you have to qualify your response with that, then clearly your initial posts...

Some of the questionable minded people here thought gc and price cuts toward the END OF MARCH was supposed to win the xone march. Huh?

...was incorrect.

Bundling in Titanfall was effectively $60 price drop. This SKU was available the day of Titanfall release, so most of March. BTW Titanfall bundle, which is still available for $499, is a much better deal than a Kinect-less and Titanfall-less $399 Xbone SKU.

 

[Tigersuperman]

If you have to qualify your response with that, then clearly your initial posts...

...was incorrect.

Bundling in Titanfall was effectively $60 price drop. This SKU was available the day of Titanfall release, so most of March. BTW Titanfall bundle, which is still available for $499, is a much better deal than a Kinect-less and Titanfall-less $399 Xbone SKU.

You might want to re-read

 

[Raist]

So when misinformation like this spreads:

I'm curious, where did he get the "real" number from then? Any super-accurate competitor to NPD no one but him is aware of?

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm curious, where did he get the "real" number from then? Any super-accurate competitor to NPD no one but him is aware of?

NPD's evil twin brother that we all thought was dead and buried is actually plotting against them!!!!!
-------------------

Also since people seemed curious in other threads today reposting this

Countdown until April NPD PR starts coming out

 

[donny2112]

They're always the second Thursday of the month.

It's the second Thursday after the end of the tracking period. That often falls on the second Thursday of the month, but not always (like for this month, they're not the same Thursday).

 

[jvm]

Hey, it was hitting me the other day, but is your username short for java virtual machine, since it's not your initials? Robotic poster.

Ha. It is my initials. My name is both my name and not my name.

 

[allan-bh]

Xbox One sales number in May NPD will be funny. And June NPD will be very interesting.

 

[StoopKid]

Xbox One sales number in May NPD will be funny. And June NPD will be very interesting.

I can imagine the meltdowns if it gets outsold in june.

 

[Mass Effect]

You might want to re-read

It's irrelevant because it's not going to happen.

 

[GamerJM]

Oh goodness, my 204k for Xbox One is probably way off. My PS4/Xbox One/3DS numbers were probably too high in general.

 

[krypt0nian]

I see a now very real chance that the PS4’s lead above the Xbox will double in the next two (Apr/May) months. Heads will explode.

 

[lightzGamin]

PS4 = 280K
XB1 = 160K
PS3 = 70K
360 = 120K
WII U = 30K
3DS = 170K

 

[SwiftDeath]

I see a now very real chance that the PS4’s lead above the Xbox will double in the next two (Apr/May) months. Heads will explode.

Not to be too dismissive but current lead is 381k to PS4. Thus doubling in April and May would require PS4 to outsell XB1 by 190K a month on average for April and May

Seems fairly unlikely to me

Do think PS4 leading by half a million units in the US by E3 is pretty much a lock though

600k lead doesn't seem to far-fetched though but 550k is most likely methinks

 

[Louis Cyphre]

PS4: 260,000.
Xbox One: 175,000
3DS: 150,000
PS3: 90,000
Xbox 360: 100,000
Wii U: 110,000
Wii: 20,000
Vita: 15,000
PSP: 4,000

 

[shinra-bansho]

You need to follow the formatting. But I think it's past the deadline to post or change predictions anyway.

Can someone remind me if and when certain NPD subscribers receive advance reports. I'm wondering whether the move by Microsoft is in reaction to external numbers being poor, internal numbers being poor or the possibility that people are ignoring in that numbers may not actually be poor, but this move is more proaction.

 

[stryke]

It's the second Thursday after the end of the tracking period. That often falls on the second Thursday of the month, but not always (like for this month, they're not the same Thursday).

Noted. Thanks for the correction.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Can someone remind me if and when certain NPD subscribers receive advance reports. I'm wondering whether the move by Microsoft is in reaction to external numbers being poor, internal numbers being poor or the possibility that people are ignoring in that numbers may not actually be poor, but this move is more proaction.

I have no pertinent knowledge on NPD subscribers reporting habits aside from perhaps the fact that the normal report is to come out at 4PM E on Thursday and I would think it's unusual to give advanced reports although I guess I don't see why they wouldn't offer that

MS would certainly be aware of their own sales through internal tracking however

It could in fact not be a PR move before a poor NPD showing however if so why would MS announce such a price drop with over 3 weeks notice? Why not announce it June 1? June 5th?

Give the XB1 a chance at some sales in May because as it stands any semi-informed consumer who wanted an XB1 but not a kinect will hold off until the second week of June to make a purchase. Seems early to me

 

[Aquamarine]

You need to follow the formatting. But I think it's past the deadline to post or change predictions anyway.

Can someone remind me if and when certain NPD subscribers receive advance reports. I'm wondering whether the move by Microsoft is in reaction to external numbers being poor, internal numbers being poor or the possibility that people are ignoring in that numbers may not actually be poor, but this move is more proaction.

Microsoft can always call up NPD's major retailers (GameSpot + Best Buy + Wal-Mart + Target + Amazon) and ask for retail impressions.

Given that Microsoft has active, working relationships with all of those retailers, I have no doubt that they have acquired early sell-through indications.

But if Microsoft got advance reports with exact figures from NPD, why would they wait until Thursday to publish their PR?

 

[Welfare]

[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 110K
[PS3] 55K
[WIU] 65K
[360] 70K
[3DS] 100K
[PSV] 8K

For my own amusement

Should have known the One would drop off fast after Titanfall, but whatever, June will be more interesting.

 

[theprodigy]

But if Microsoft got advance reports with exact figures from NPD, why would they wait until Thursday to publish their PR?

cause it probably sucks...?

Xbox One sales number in May NPD will be funny. And June NPD will be very interesting.

oh god Apophis2036 is gonna be insufferable if Xbox One dips below Wii U in May
(thankfully June will zip that one right up)

 

[shinra-bansho]

It was something I recalled reading about that they were doing at some point, and I thought I recalled wrong but I've found it again.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=9837800

A third group of clients receives a limited extract (the "IR edition") on Wednesday, a day in advance of the press release. The purpose of the IR edition is to allow clients who receive it to have some time to prepare for inquiries from media and analysts. Recipients who receive the IR edition are under very strict non-disclosure agreements, and the number of recipients is limited in order to minimize the risk of leaks. The IR edition is currently offered on a trial basis only

Although, I have no idea when they stopped doing it, if they stopped doing it.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Sorry for double post, but if any SalesAgers are interested Sony FY stuff is out.
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/info/presen/

EDIT: nvm, there's a thread on it now.

 

[BriareosGAF]

Ha. It is my initials. My name is both my name and not my name.

I know the secret!

 

[Hoo-doo]

It will be very worrisome for MS management if they lose June by any significant amount

Christ. If they lose June, GAF will probably be down for a week.

 

[prag16]

oh god Apophis2036 is gonna be insufferable if Xbox One dips below Wii U in May
(thankfully June will zip that one right up)

Heh I think several people will be insufferable if that happens. If MK8 came out a week earlier I think this would be a lock, but with it only having two tracking days in the May period, whatever bump there is could get split between May/June and lower the chances of eclipsing xbone. But I guess if xbone numbers are disastrous for April (e.g. below 100k) that would then indicate Wii U failing to beat xbone in May would be disappointing.

May and June will be very interesting.

 

[x-Lundz-x]

Christ. If they lose June, GAF will probably be down for a week.

I look forward to seeing that actually.

 

[Apophis2036]

oh god Apophis2036 is gonna be insufferable if Xbox One dips below Wii U in May (thankfully June will zip that one right up)

Attacking me again I see...

It really got under your skin that I dared to predict WIiU would win a single NPD didn't it. It won't now anyway, you are lucky the MK8 bump will be split over two months results .

 

[donny2112]

But if Microsoft got advance reports with exact figures from NPD, why would they wait until Thursday to publish their PR?

Didn't NPD trial a service a few years ago where some subscribers could get a general preview of the results on Tuesday? Was that not continued?

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Apr-2014

1. PS4 - 270K
2. XB1 - 179K
3. 3DS - 118K
4. 360 - 87K
5. PS3 - 57K
6. WIU - 55K

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Looks like people were way off on Xbone. Seems it will be closer to 100k. While yes June will be interesting, the amount the gap is widening in April and May almost makes a June victory for Xbone irrelevant, and a loss disastrous. It would need consecutive months of best selling to offset the ground lost from just these two months, and I am still not convinced it will even outsell the PS4 a single month this year though. The Xbone at $399 without Kinect or a game is a much worse value than it was in March and some of April and it was outsold then. On the back of the most hyped game of the last year no less.

 

[The Llama]

I have no pertinent knowledge on NPD subscribers reporting habits aside from perhaps the fact that the normal report is to come out at 4PM E on Thursday and I would think it's unusual to give advanced reports although I guess I don't see why they wouldn't offer that

MS would certainly be aware of their own sales through internal tracking however

It could in fact not be a PR move before a poor NPD showing however if so why would MS announce such a price drop with over 3 weeks notice? Why not announce it June 1? June 5th?

Give the XB1 a chance at some sales in May because as it stands any semi-informed consumer who wanted an XB1 but not a kinect will hold off until the second week of June to make a purchase. Seems early to me

I'm too lazy to go back myself and check, but I'm pretty sure at least twice recently, right before NPD results officially came out, MS made some PR moves. I think one was announcing the TF bundle. Maybe the other was ntkrnel? Or something else...

 

[Delusibeta]

It will be very worrisome for MS management if they lose June by any significant amount

I wouldn't be too surprised if the decision to move the Kinectless SKU announcement up a month was a direct result of them losing March. Considering how much of a damp squib Titanfall turned out to be, anything is possible.

 

[llamarawk]

Does this come out today?

thanks fullmetaltech

 

[FullMetaltech]

Does this come out today?

Tommorow. I believe between 4-6pm est well hear info about it.

 

[Road]

It was something I recalled reading about that they were doing at some point, and I thought I recalled wrong but I've found it again.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=9837800

Although, I have no idea when they stopped doing it, if they stopped doing it.

NPD gets retail point-of-sales data weekly. I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft is in a small group of clients with which NPD would share weekly video game sales.

They even issued press releases for weekly sales until 2001 or so (eg: https://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_010627a.htm ) I don't know why they stopped (possibly to improve the accuracy of their estimates).

 

[GoofsterStud]

Good luck to everyone. This is exciting.

 

[SwiftDeath]

NPD in less than 18 hours

Be hilarious if XB1 somehow does fine and the kinectless SKU announcement was just a coincidence