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April 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

EGOMON

EGOMON

Member
Sorry to ask but when is this going down again? i need to prepare pop-corns and soda before hand

Edit: thanks guys so in around 7 hours and something
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
AniHawk said:
hard to determine that when the wii u will only see two days of sales from mario kart. i expect it'll be frontloaded, but probably not enough to do huge numbers like that in such a short amount of time. and then by june, that first couple of days won't matter and microsoft's price drop will be in effect.
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What if Sony has TLOU: Remastered for just after E3 or late June?

Will the Xbone ever 'win' an NPD? Because that game will shift some PS4's, especially after its full reveal at E3.
 
L

LilWayneSuckz

Member
Coulomb_Barrier said:
What if Sony has TLOU: Remastered for just after E3 or late June?

Will the Xbone ever 'win' an NPD? Because that game will shift some PS4's, especially after its full reveal at E3.
Click to expand...

The announcement of "Beast Souls" at E3 alone will shift some PS4s. The hardcore Souls fans will be foaming at the mouth counting down the days till its released.
 
T

TalonJH

Member
Can't wait for NPD's. I'm really interested in what happened to XB1 sales. Do they stay high or do they drop off? Will PS4 still be as high as last month?

Excitement OVERFLOWING!
GNQXpT4.gif
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
Darkologia said:
Sorry to ask but when is this going down again? i need to prepare pop-corns and soda before hand

Edit: thanks guys so in around 7 hours and something
Click to expand...

April and May NPD numbers are going to be boring. June is when you should break out the popcorn. That's when the $400 XB1 will be released.
 
S

S¡mon

Banned
S¡mon;110459638 said:
[360] 89K
[3DS] 127K
[PS3] 54K
[PS4] 297K
[WIU] 56K
[XB1] 187K

XB1 will see the biggest drop compared to last month: no big title launching and price increased again back to $499.
Click to expand...
In hindsight, I think I would adjust:

- X360 slightly up, I think it's closer to 100K now
- 3DS same
- PS3 same
- PS4 a bit lower around 280K
- WIU, yeah, well... maybe lower
- XB1 I would now guess at around 150K

Still, even without those adjustments, I'm feeling pretty confident.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
allan-bh said:
I don't think Wii U beat Xbox One in may is a explosive fact. Honestly at this point is kinda expected.

Xbox One sales will dive and Mario Kart 8 is a huge game for Wii U.
Click to expand...

Asd202 said:
I don't think Wii U outselling Xbone in May would cause meltdowns in the light of the recent price cut announcement.
Click to expand...


Explosive to those who don't follow video game sales and only see headlines like "Wii U outsells Xbox One" and form an immediate reaction independent of context.

GAF as a whole isn't above those kind of instant reactions.
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
I wish it was 6pm GMT :(
Click to expand...

soon.

I've used crazy awful math to deduce that once PS4 meets 8 millions units sold through, XB1 will be at 3.5 sold through. I know that's wrong as I'm just going off my awful statistic guessing and simple graphs but I cant wait for this months numbers. Feels like guessing the stock market but with no reward other than GAF satisfaction
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
TalonJH said:
Can't wait for NPD's. I'm really interested in what happened to XB1 sales. Do they stay high or do they drop off? Will PS4 still be as high as last month?

Excitement OVERFLOWING!
GNQXpT4.gif
Click to expand...

If Xbox One is too low in April / May, Microsoft may decide to forego PR for exact Xbox One numbers.

We may have to rely on leakers...
 
E

Elios83

Member
Aquamarine said:
If Xbox One is too low in April / May, Microsoft may decide to forego PR for exact Xbox One numbers.

We may have to rely on leakers...
Click to expand...

I guess they will release precise numbers but they'll focus on their bright future with the price cut in June in the PR.
Just like in January they gave numbers but were focusing on their bright future with the launch of Titanfall :p
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Elios83 said:
I guess they will release precise numbers but they'll focus on their bright future with the price cut in June in the PR.
Just like in January they gave numbers but were focusing on their bright future with the launch of Titanfall :p
Click to expand...

I think it will be more likely if Xbox One numbers are <100K.

Microsoft has to weigh whether revealing Xbox One's exact numbers will be more of a detriment than just keeping it as general as humanly possible, like this:

http://news.xbox.com/2013/10/xbox-360-sept-npd

September NPD &#8211; Biggest September for Xbox 360 Software Sales

This month, Xbox 360 reached 80 million consoles sold to retailers worldwide* and maintained its lead as the number one selling console in the U.S. in 2013.

September 2013 NPD highlights:

Last month marked the biggest September software sales for Xbox 360, with sales reaching $401.2 million, the most for any console in the U.S. (Source: NPD Group, September 2013)

Xbox 360 continues to see strong consumer demand with an amazing lineup of titles. In fact, Xbox 360 held five of the top 10 console games during the month of September including: &#8220;Grand Theft Auto V,&#8221; &#8220;FIFA 14,&#8221; &#8220;Madden NFL 14,&#8221; &#8220;Diablo III&#8221; and &#8220;NBA 2K14.&#8221; (Source: NPD Group, September 2013)

Xbox 360 remains the number one selling console in the U.S. in 2013, with 1.6 million units sold this year. (Source: NPD Group, September 2013)

Xbox 360 is poised for another successful holiday with recently announced Xbox 360 holiday bundles available worldwide at select major retailers. The three holiday bundles are:

Xbox 360 250GB Holiday Bundle with &#8220;Halo 4&#8221; and &#8220;Tomb Raider&#8221; as well as one month free of Xbox Live Gold available for $249.99** USD (ERP).

Xbox 360 4GB Kinect Holiday Bundle with &#8220;Kinect Sports: Season Two&#8221; and &#8220;Kinect Adventures&#8221; as well as one month free of Xbox Live Gold available for $249.99** USD (ERP).

Xbox 360 250GB Kinect Holiday Bundle with &#8220;Kinect Sports: Season Two,&#8221; &#8220;Kinect Adventures,&#8221; and &#8220;Forza Horizon&#8221; as well as one month free of Xbox Live Gold available for $349.99** USD (ERP).

This holiday only, the Xbox 360 4GB Console is available for an incredible value of $179.99** USD (ERP). Now is the time to get a great deal on Xbox 360.

Looking ahead to Xbox One launch, we continue to see overwhelming demand for the console with pre-orders for Xbox One selling out quicker than any previous Xbox release; Xbox One pre-orders continue to outpace Xbox 360 pre-orders in the same time period. While we remain on track to honor all pre-order commitments, we do expect to sell every Xbox One we deliver to retail this holiday.

With the release of Xbox One, amazing new titles coming to Xbox One and Xbox 360 and best-ever holiday offers available for Xbox 360, it&#8217;s going to be a great year for Xbox.

*Internal Microsoft data
**Games inside marked packages, while supplies last. Estimated retail price; actual prices may vary.
See participating retailer for details.
Click to expand...
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
FiggyCal said:
Like I said earlier, can we not panic when Xbox One is sub 150k? I feel like the people saying that it's not likely are setting themselves up for a meltdown.
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I'm getting deja-vu from the March NPD thread already. Sooo many people had to eat crow there when they said that there was "no chance" MS could lose...
 
E

Elios83

Member
Aquamarine said:
I think it will be more likely if Xbox One numbers are <100K.

Microsoft has to weigh whether revealing Xbox One's exact numbers will be more of a detriment than just keeping it as general as humanly possible, like this:

http://news.xbox.com/2013/10/xbox-360-sept-npd
Click to expand...

Yeah if the numbers are 100k or below they will be in a difficult position, but considering that people expect them to release their numbers, not doing it would be pretty much an admission that they are so emabarrassing they have to hide them, it will also add further fuel to the fire about their decision to drop the Kinect being a move born out of desperation. And numbers will leak anyway.
Releasing them of course won't change their bad situation but at least there won't be talk about them trying to hide the failure.
Still in any case the PR will all be about their price cut and E3 conference in June, that's obvious :D
 
L

lightning2k3

Member
Aquamarine said:
It's disappointing that Sony is so lackluster with their PR this gen, especially with PS4 doing so well.


"Hay guyz, PS4 sold the best this month #PlayStation"


:-(
Click to expand...

I don't mind too much. The numbers get out eventually anyways through other means, and it saves them the embarassment of trying to spin them when they get an unfavorable month. After all, look how much ridicule MS got for the "Titans dropped"/"Zombies Killed" metrics when they didn't have the actual numbers on their side.
 
T

The Llama

Member
lightning2k3 said:
I don't mind too much. The numbers get out eventually anyways through other means, and it saves them the embarassment of trying to spin them when they get an unfavorable month. After all, look how much ridicule MS got for the "Titans dropped"/"Zombies Killed" metrics when they didn't have the actual numbers on their side.
Click to expand...

Yeah, agreed. Its smart by them to hedge their bets a bit by not going full cocky MS and releasing numbers and bragging every month.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Aquamarine said:
It's disappointing that Sony is so lackluster with their PR this gen, especially with PS4 doing so well.


"Hay guyz, PS4 sold the best this month #NPD #PlayStation"


:-(
Click to expand...

Hey at least with the Vita, I feel they don't announce anything not because the numbers are so bad but because SCEA doesn't realize it exists

"What the hell is the PS Vita and why is it being outsold by the Ouya?" - Official SCEA Vita PR

Also expecting 6 mentions of TF in MS's April PR
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Xbox One, first year post-launch:

January: 141K
February: 258K
March: 311K


PS3, first year post-launch:

January: 244K
February: 127K
March: 130K
April: 82K
May: 82K
June: 99K
July: 159K
August: 131K
September: 119K
October: 121K


It seems like that, given Xbox One's very low 141K in January + PS3's penchant for sub-100K numbers during its early release, a drop below 100K wouldn't be entirely unheard of for Xbox One.


I certainly think that May has a sub-100K possibility for Xbox One given the early announcement of the June price cuts. But then again, I'm not sure I would equate the Xbox One's current situation to PS3's former situation. It does seem to be more successful at this juncture.
Click to expand...

Didn't know that the PS3 was under 100K for multiple months after launch. Interesting. And yeah, I definitely think it's possible for the Xbox One sales to be under 100K for May.

The April numbers will definitely be interesting. Expecting a drop for both the PS4 and Xbox One but more of a drop for the latter. Think it's possible for PS4 to sell 80K+ more with both systems being above 100K overall for the month. We'll see in a few hours though....
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Aquamarine said:
What!? That's ludicrous! I'm just a harmless girl who knows nothing! Surely you must know that about me by now!
Click to expand...

How could I forget. Definitely not a leaker.

Aquamarine said:
It's disappointing that Sony is so lackluster with their PR this gen, especially with PS4 doing so well.


"Hay guyz, PS4 sold the best this month #NPD #PlayStation"


:-(
Click to expand...

Its like they don't understand the fanfare of NPD releases (and from the outside world who really would lol)
 
F

FlyStarJay

Member
i just had a thought, dunno if its been posted anywhere, but if xbox promotes the new price and the sft core gamers see it, will they wait till the new price before buying xbox? meaning they will lose may. Watch dogs is coming out, and with it been promoted heavily opn ps4, they have definitely lost may
 
F

FullMetaltech

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I'm expecting them to celebrate a decent amount during the E3 conference... a few minutes being used to discuss sales & stats.
Click to expand...

Pretty understandable with the momentum in their favor so far. I just hope they dont dwell too much on the charts and numbers during thier presenation. Just whats to come.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
FlyStarJay said:
i just had a thought, dunno if its been posted anywhere, but if xbox promotes the new price and the sft core gamers see it, will they wait till the new price before buying xbox? meaning they will lose may. Watch dogs is coming out, and with it been promoted heavily opn ps4, they have definitely lost may
Click to expand...

They were already going to lose May. They have no exclusives launching that month and PS4 has proven it has stronger baseline demand. May will be abysmal for them unless retailers start slashing prices preemptively. But without an actual Kinect-less SKU in their hands, there's not a whole lot they can do that they didn't do for titanfall in March.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
FlyStarJay said:
i just had a thought, dunno if its been posted anywhere, but if xbox promotes the new price and the sft core gamers see it, will they wait till the new price before buying xbox? meaning they will lose may. Watch dogs is coming out, and with it been promoted heavily opn ps4, they have definitely lost may
Click to expand...

That thought where MS announced a $100 cheaper XB1 SKU available June 9, on May 13th has led many to believe MS will lose May fairly significantly. Furthermore the PS4/Watch Dogs Co-marketing will only hurt them more

My take on it is MS might be accepting losing May and in a significant way so that they can move some May sales of XB1 into June to try and win June at all costs and stop PS4's NPD winstreak early. I think they highly value being seen as competitive in the US market specifically
 
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