Asia stock markets getting ravaged to open Monday
- Thread starter Vanillalite
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redmetal86
Member
As someone who has never bought stocks, what's the best way to take advantage of the recent market trouble?
TheSecondSpitter
Member
Short sell.
Buy shares in an ETF or open-ended mutual fund and let it sit for the next 50 years, because markets at the level of a retail investor are efficient and you'll eat the costs of any transaction fees (and probably worse) by day-trading.
Laevateinn
Member
*If* the Dow is down 300+ points tomorrow it will be something not seen in a while. It was down 1000 points just last week.
I'm buying a select few stocks tomorrow if there's heavy weakness. SPY has an RSI of 25, I haven't seen an opportunity like that in ages, literally years.
Noo man, no. You don't get short after the fall, just like you don't buy at the exuberant highs. The markets may have some further downside in them but most RSI indicators are that the markets are becoming oversold. It's about time to bottom feed.
I'm buying a select few stocks tomorrow if there's heavy weakness. SPY has an RSI of 25, I haven't seen an opportunity like that in ages, literally years.
Noo man, no. You don't get short after the fall, just like you don't buy at the exuberant highs. The markets may have some further downside in them but most RSI indicators are that the markets are becoming oversold. It's about time to bottom feed.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It would be a pretty sweet deal when you look at corporate profits and valuations. Hopefully the morons at CNN stoke some panic by throwing misinformation around.
The US drop is mostly fear and profit taking driving down. Ride it out, if you have cash figure out where you want to get in and sit on it for a while. Shit, go buy some oil company stock that gives you huge dividends and hold for 5+ years, it's not like the world's appetite for oil is going away, but it will take a while
Shining Sunshine
Banned
Is this good for the Canadian dollar?
lol nothing is good for the Canadian dollar
PotionBleue
Member
In the middle column, why are some digits red, some green and the other black?
That's a real time capture, the numbers were changing by the second. Red meant the index was dropping, green rising, and black no change.
I'm setting my buy triggers in my trading platform right now. I've got them staggered, deeper buys the further they drop.
Shining Sunshine
Banned
well I'm hoping USD goes down with CAD so I can get games cheaper lol
Sadly its not
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Canada is doomed.
I dont think that is going to happen. The dollar will likely continue to rise as people start dumping their money in the US since now that the EU, emerging markets, China, and commodity reliant economies are all big risk factors, the US is pretty much the only 'safe' bet. That likely means that the dollar is going to continue to rise
You can start by getting a PM in place that doesn't try to tie a majority of the economy to oil
milanbaros
Member?
A lot of market timing talk in here. Talk of getting in when it bottoms out and short selling. Even got a guy saving his housing deposit in shares, when he will need the cash in a year.
If you want to invest buy a diversified passive index fund and keep investing every month.
China's stock market may finally close down for the year. What a bubble that was.
If you want to invest buy a diversified passive index fund and keep investing every month.
China's stock market may finally close down for the year. What a bubble that was.
redmetal86
Member
Thanks for the feedback. Looks like I've got some homework to do.
All comes down to balance of trade, never fails. When it starts to unwind it gets ugly. China has been adjusting for a while, they shifted a ton of "savings" into shitty investments instead of spurring consumption. Cheap debt financed by the household sector, misinvesment and wasted savings.
You can't time shit, the only thing you can go with is that through a long enough time horizon it always goes up. You can buy now, it can go down more and hit 20000 in 5 years. You shouldn't expect anything you put in today to be viable in the next year.
I feel like this drop is the most apathetic correction ever as far as anyone besides financial people giving a shit
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Actually, I think the financial people are mostly calm because they know it's not founded in real or imminent danger. It's the casuals like CNN that are going nuts and bringing up the word Lehman for no fucking reason.
Friday it was all "500 points! 500 points!" and using the numeric value in comparison to previous drops years ago without even bothering to explain 500 points is only as important as the percentage it represents.
uncelestial
Member
General economy: Buy SPXS while things are tanking, switch to XIV when it bottoms out.
OIL: Buy DWTI while it's tanking and switch to UWTI when it bottoms out.
And when I say "switch" I mean slowly transition a percentage of your holding from short to long one week at a time. Maybe 10% a week. Because you are not going to call the bottom, period.
I disagree that you can't time the market. You can if you have proper bankroll discipline, a firm grasp on statistics, and experience. I personally have a system where I split my bankroll 7 ways, and devote each seventh to buying into AAA names like Apple or Microsoft when the RSI is in the 20's or the stock is way below the moving averages. I stagger the seventh's buy orders into three tiers in case I'm wrong, each lower than the last. Companies like that always recover, they have too many all-stars working for them, too much capital to fund worthwhile projects, and too much idle capital drawing returns. If I'm wrong despite my safeguards then it's no big deal, it's only a seventh, I just have to hold it longer than I had hoped. I'd have to close out a losing trade 4/7ths of the time to lose anyway.
A lot of other people have somewhat different timing based systems but it's always the same basic concepts; RSIs and moving averages, splitting bankroll, very high thresholds to cross before buying, and only using reliable companies. The beauty of such systems is that the more conservative you are, the higher the eventual returns are when your buy orders hit (because you held out and bought lower).
The best thing to do is to invest in mutual funds, invest a lot, and do it early.
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
ok so if the china bubble has popped. Whats the next Bubble?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Gold: The Ultimate Bubble.
If you said this just a year ago and someone listened they'd likely never get their money back.
If you think a stock is prcied lower than its value buy its as simple as that. If looking for cash security buy bonds not equity, especially right now. Its valuing a stock that's difficult.
Speaking of which I feel the doomsayers are more right here. I think China's had a 1920s style stock boom with ignorant middle class (ignorant being a description not an insult here) throwing cash in based on credit from their homes. Lending so someone can invest is what went wrong then and what is going wrong now; brokers are going to get caught in a loop.
I think China's been hiding a larger slowdown for a while (this also helps explain global growth that for many has been coming in surprisingly low) and that the Chinese economy may have halted now rather than slowed.
I also think we'll survive and the West will have as much to gain as to lose.
Canada
glaringradio
Member
I've a holiday to Japan next month and had I have converted my money last week it would have been 194Y to each £. Now it's at 189Y. Slightly shitting myself.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Why would they bail out something that isn't a big sector of their economy and is still above it's long term average.
Canadian housing market.
Not sure about next, but the US stock markets are going to have to correct eventually, when interest rates rise. Many stocks are inflated if only because investors have few other viable options for their cash.
I think people are very optimistic if they see no contagion beyond APAC. This is the latest episode of a global story. China has been to a large extent propping up the global economy since the 2008 financial crisis, allowing the RMB to appreciate and non-bank debt to soar.
This is a good, if a little sycophantic, article on China's role.
Now the wheels are coming off.
China's growth is weakening, tumbling commodities (look at oil!), and the depreciation of the RMB earlier this month has made other economies less competitive (particularly US). This can get messy.
This is a good, if a little sycophantic, article on China's role.
Now the wheels are coming off.
China's growth is weakening, tumbling commodities (look at oil!), and the depreciation of the RMB earlier this month has made other economies less competitive (particularly US). This can get messy.
milanbaros
Member?
I agree about China driving world growth. But we are in full on recovery mode in non resource heavy developed countries, even if the media wouldn't let you believe it. The drop in commodity prices at a time of high growth could be a huge boon to the likes of the UK. The downside on growth is often inflation but this is being kept at bay.
Shadow Ranger
Member
Bollocks. Should've changed last week as well. Was hoping it'd hit 200. Bah!
It appears it's affecting the European markets as well
This made me laugh really good - thanks!
This made me laugh really good - thanks!
Describing the UK economy as high growth is one hell of a stretch!
Ether_Snake
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Low commodity prices, high USD, interest rates still low, it's a great time for the US to invest in infrastructure.
Ban Puncher
Member
I just opened xe.com and saw the AUD has fallen a whole four yen in one day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUFWXpYJKaI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUFWXpYJKaI
milanbaros
Member?
Not really. The growth rate is one of the highest in the developed world and has been growing at or above normal rates for nearly two years.
The fall in commodity prices has already led to upward estimates for UK growth this year. CBI expect 2.6% for 2015 and not 2.4% because low inflation has meant more disposable income.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
Dow Futures are down over 700 points now about an hour or so away from the Opening Bell.
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