Betting time - will Switch 2 be a success?

Betting time - will Switch 2 be a success?


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    333
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LakeOf9

Member
In 2017, a legendary NeoGAF thread was made, when the community came together to predict how the Nintendo Switch would do.

We are now eight years later, and the Switch 2 is ~60 days away from release. It will be fun to come and read this page in the future some day, so I ask NeoGAF – will the Switch 2 be a success?

We now know the launch games, the specs, the price, release date, and more. This is the time to make the prediction.
 
Most people find it’s a burden to switch platforms so I’m sure a good chunk of Switch owners will choose to move their libraries forward and buy a Switch 2.
 

LakeOf9

Member
Lower than Switch as those old units of the original will wind up in the hands of younger kids / families who otherwise would have been getting a Switch since there wasn't anything else like it on the market.
I think lower than Switch its a given since a platform doesnt just sell 150 million units, but how much lower is the question.
 

Baemono

Member
Depends on if they manage to lower the price after quite some time, release a handheld-only Lite version and an OLED revision (with maybe 1Tb of storage)
 

Robb

Gold Member
I went with a “moderate” 80M, just following the NDS to 3DS pattern. But I could see it going 100M+ if it’s another 8-year machine.

I have no doubt it’ll be successful.
 

Xyphie

Member
I think I've said 80-100M in another thread. Largely because I think the console market is at peak TAM and will shrink over the next 10 years. PS4+XBO sold some odd 180 million units, PS5+XSX/S will be less than that and PS6+XboxNext will be another further reduction. The manufacturers know this and that's why they are ARPU-maxxing (90€ games, 899€ Pro console etc).
 
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Sethbacca

Member
I'm confident they'll deliver compelling software over time to move a fuck ton of units, but they're not gonna get the same bump from COVID stay at homers and casuals buying in on this one since I feel like most of those casuals will stick with their existing system unless they have a very compelling reason to upgrade (especially with economic turmoil and the system price). Went with 3ds level, so we'll see.
 

MrA

Member
going to perform on par with switch minus the covid spike, I know there is the normal hand-wringing from the usual suspect oh my god so expensive oh my go game prices are up, oh my god
normal people know they'll buy Mario kart once, enjoy it for a decade,
Nintendo has been excellent about not nickel-and-diming with microtransaction,and they're actually pushing sd express, which is fantastic and probably a contributing factor to the cost of game cards
They deserve flak for that welcome mat nonsense, and game key for single player games,
 

bender

What time is it?
Feeling bullish with 100m, though I think 80m will be a more natural result.

That's where I'm at. I voted 100m as I don't think it will do Switch numbers unless we get another pandemic, but I could see games pricing turning off enough people to push it down to that ~80m figure.
 
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DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
I'm going 100 mill. I think that's a safe bet.

It's all down to software. If they can deliver a generation with the same release schedule and quality of the og Switch then it's smashing 120 mill easy!

If not.....then I'd say between 100 and 120.
 

daxgame

Member
DEAD ON ARRIVAL

It will may make WiiU numbers after a deep discount. Maybe Pokemon will save it, but its fucked.
Jesus man you really were desperate to be quoted as laughing stock for eternity...

Anyway I voted 120m. That's the ceiling for me. However I am assuming they will partially backtrack on game prices (or rather, Mario Kart will remain an exception). We'll see.
 
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It can do 120m-150m

The console and games are there, but they’ll need to scale down their pricing which I think they’ll do if it’s not an instant success.
 

XXL

Banned
Larry David Reaction GIF

The only thing I feel confident enough in saying right now....is that it won't do as well as the OG Switch.
 

analog_future

Resident Crybaby
It'll definitely be a success, but definitely not Switch 1 level. I don't know that there's anything Nintendo can do about that as the Switch was just a very unique proposition.


I do think it'll hit 80-100mil though.
 

graywolf323

Member
That's where I'm at. I voted 100m as I don't think it will do Switch numbers unless we get another pandemic, but I could see games pricing turning off enough people to push it down to that ~80m figure.
same, though I could see it pushing 120m depending on what happens as well

basically 100 million +/- 20 depending on how everything goes
 

Mhmmm 2077

Member
100M lifetime easily imo, everyone doubting it should apply the same logic to playstation x -> playstation x+1 scenario
 

ReyBrujo

Member
I'm praying for another 3DS situation. A price cut happened because of mid sales after the launch.
This time US is fucked if that happens, the tariffs will continue making the console expensive. In fact I'm wondering if they should have waited an extra week to announce the price, not sure if they expected 30% for their products.
 
The original Switch kids have gown up, the second console means something to them. So the answer is yes, I wouldn't be surprised if it reach 200m.
 

Hookshot

Member
Depends on how many years of financial fuckery happens. All the prices are already higher than people want. It'll sell millions to the people rich enough and the fans but I don't think it will come close to the Switch and have such mass adoption, more around the Wii levels.
 

KU_

Member
I went with a “moderate” 80M, just following the NDS to 3DS pattern. But I could see it going 100M+ if it’s another 8-year machine.

I have no doubt it’ll be successful.
This. I suspect 75-90 million units lifetime, however that can change based on how long Nintendo decides to ride it out.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
It'll be successful but no way close to Switch 1.

Console price is right up there with PS5/SX. I think Ninty gamers stomach regular priced games and joycons no problem, but sticker shock of the system price will turn some people away. They've always been cheap vs PS and Xbox. Not anymore.
 

Mercador

Member
Under 50M is my bet.

Selling a tutorial, wtf?

It will require several system sellers to do better and I haven't seen anything that wow'd me yet.
 

Poppinfresh

Neo Member
It'll be successful but no way close to Switch 1.

Console price is right up there with PS5/SX. I think Ninty gamers stomach regular priced games and joycons no problem, but sticker shock of the system price will turn some people away. They've always been cheap vs PS and Xbox. Not anymore.
Agreed.

I also think that people have options for handhelds in that price range now too. What's the better value proposition between the Switch 2 and a Steam Deck, assuming you can only afford one?

I'll also add that unless there is a BIG first-party release around the holidays, I don't think we'll see Switch 2 shortages in stores at Christmas.
 
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El Muerto

Member
Around 80 million. Only the older Nintendo die hards will get it at first. Then we'll see a price cut next year and regular people will start buying them if there are decent exclusives. There's no way the Switch 2 can survive being at the same price as a PS5 or Series X. Kids do not care about Mario, Donkey Kong, or Zelda more than they care about Fortnite and Call of Duty. Parents will opt to get their kids the cheaper machine like a Series S during the holiday season.
 

Comandr

Member
It will be a success, of course. Even with almost no exclusive games and a ridiculous price for just the switch itself, people are frothing to buy it up. I think the sticker shock is going to be a real factor. $70-80 becomes $80-90 real fast after tax.

Let's say you skipped the switch 1, for whatever reason. You want to get a couple games, and another controller so you can enjoy multiplayer games without being relegated to using a tiny joycon as a full controller.

S2 MKW: $499.99
Joycons: $89.99
Mario Party: $79.99
ToTK: $79.99
_______
Subtotal: 749.96
Tax: 74.99
Total: 824.95

Holy shit.

This sort of scenario is going to be very real for a lot of people. Three games and a controller for your brand new console is not an outrageously extravagant expectation.

We're not even factoring in an SDEX card at $59.99 for 256GB, or a charging grip for your extra joycon for $34.99, or a carrying case for another $34.99.

A "full kit" for a Switch 2 with three games could easily be a thousand bucks.
Surprised Kenan Thompson GIF
 

phant0m

Member
In 2017, a legendary NeoGAF thread was made, when the community came together to predict how the Nintendo Switch would do.

We are now eight years later, and the Switch 2 is ~60 days away from release. It will be fun to come and read this page in the future some day, so I ask NeoGAF – will the Switch 2 be a success?

We now know the launch games, the specs, the price, release date, and more. This is the time to make the prediction.
That OG thread is a fuckin classic and shows how out of touch “gamers” are with reality
 
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Poppinfresh

Neo Member
A "full kit" for a Switch 2 with three games could easily be a thousand bucks.
But the inability to buy a "full kit" isn't going to stop people from buying the system. They will just buy one less game or one less set of joycons and pick those things up later.
 

EverydayBeast

ChatGPT 0.001
Nintendo is not going to love switch 2 sales, you’re constantly chasing Wii sales and I think that was a freak anomaly.
 

Comandr

Member
But the inability to buy a "full kit" isn't going to stop people from buying the system. They will just buy one less game or one less set of joycons and pick those things up later.
That means missing out. Explain this to your two kids.

Like I said, it will definitely be successful. It's the high price of the games that are going to radically lower the attach rate. Less games being sold is going to lower demand, is going to lower sales. Nintendo may be pricing themselves at such a point where people relegate the switch 2 to be a "Nintendo only" device. Cyberpunk is going to be $70 on switch. You can buy it right now on PS5 for $60. You can get it from GOG for $35. (and play it on your steam deck, lol) These things are going to add up for people.

Cyberpunk, as an example, isn't even new. This game came out almost 5 years ago. The overwhelming majority of people that wanted to play it, got it on a different platform already. That means those people have a different platform to play it on. It's probably the same platform that they can play any number of the other 3rd party games. They might be cheaper, and they'll run better.

Being portable isn't enough of a gimmick anymore. That's old news. $70 for the privilege of playing a 5 year old game portably at low settings/FPS just isn't a good enough value proposition anymore.

By "buying one less game, or one less set of joycons" as you say, that means Nintendo is missing that sale. They are creating a scenario where people are slower to buy their products. Well now it's been a couple months and I can afford a new game. Well my choice is now between this new Nintendo game that I can't play anywhere else, or this new third party game that I can play anywhere else. Guess which one I'm going to choose. So now at the time of purchase, and months later, I have chosen not to buy a third party game because it doesn't make any sense financially.

This creates a cycle where a given purchaser simply may not be able to buy anything but the most necessary games, the ones that they can't get anywhere else. Now third party sales are down on Switch 2, which turns publishers off from making new games for them, or putting the effort to port games to Switch 2, because they're not going to sell anyway.

Third party support is essentially anemic on Switch 2, and now it's the Wii U all over again.

Do you see how this sort of thing could happen? All because the price of games, accessories, and console is so high that your average purchaser can't afford to buy more stuff for this product. The problem is cyclical. You have to see the big picture.
 
It will be a success, because it's Nintendo.

Will it do as well as the Switch? I don't think so.

I'm guessing it'll fall somewhere like 80–100 million units over its lifetime.

I think there will be a lot of families who won't feel the need to upgrade from Switch to Switch 2, especially at the price points given and to replay the same games.

But the console will pick up traction after more first party exclusives and heavy hitters come out.

Also, Nintendo still made a profit on Wii U, so by all means it was successful enough. EDIT: NVM.
 
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